Threat Assessment:  Terrorists Present ‘Clear and Present Danger,” CIA Director Says

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON ð– The United States faces a “clear and present danger posed by terrorists,” CIA Director George Tenet told Congress this morning, citing suspected al-Qaeda plots to attack with chemical and radiological weapons (see GSN, Feb. 10).

He also said the national security environment is “significantly more complex than that of a year ago,” pointing to Iraq’s suspected weapons of mass destruction, its possible links to terrorism and North Korea’s reported efforts to produce highly enriched uranium (see GSN, Feb. 3).

Tenet and another official said some of the intelligence community’s resources were being stretched thin.

Tenet identified two other national security challenges that he said add to the complexity of the U.S. security situation.  They are, he said, vast areas of the world such as the Afghan-Pakistani border “where extremist movements find shelter and can win the breathing space to grow” and issues of hunger, disease and displacement, “that produce large populations of disaffected youth who are prime recruits for our extremist foes.”

While “not occupying space on the front pages,” those challenges “demand a constant level of scrutiny,” he said.

Tenet indicated, however, that a suspected al-Qaeda plot to attack the United States was the most pressing security concern, saying the United States last week raised its terrorist threat level “because of threat reporting from multiple sources with strong al-Qaeda ties” (see GSN, Feb. 7).

“I can tell you that the threat from al-Qaeda remains, even though we have made important strides in the war against terrorism,” he said.

Tenet appeared along with FBI Director Robert Mueller, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, and a Assistant Secretary of State Carl Fordat an annual hearing on worldwide threats before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (see GSN, Feb. 7, 2002).

FBI Director Mueller also said potential al-Qaeda terrorism was the most pressing threat to the United States and said hundreds of Muslim extremists linked to al-Qaeda were in the United States and that identifying cells of those extremists is the bureau’s greatest concern.

Questions of Limited Resources

Critics have raised concern that a possible war against Iraq, for which the Bush administration is preparing forces, could divert resources from efforts to address the international terrorist threat.

Asked whether U.S. intelligence capabilities are being stretched thin in light of the many national security concerns facing the United States, Tenet said the intelligence community was having some difficulty covering areas where terrorists might find safe haven.

“It’s worth thinking about that very, very hard, and what the resource implications are,” he said.

Jacoby said the DIA’s resources were overextended, citing the need to provide information on the U.S. “global war on terrorism,” Iraq, North Korea, as well as emerging crises.

“Our sustained level of crisis and operational commitment is straining personnel, equipment, and resources, and reducing time for ‘sustaining’ activities such as training, education, data base maintenance, and longer-term research and analysis,” he said.

Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said suspected al-Qaeda threats, suspected Iraqi WMD development and support for terrorism, and suspected North Korean nuclear weapons development, “are all interrelated.”

“I think we make a dangerous assumption of trying to grade one over the other, they are all equally extremely important as regards to our vital national security,” he said.

Suspected Chemical, Radiological Plots

Tenet said the CIA suspects there are plots to attack the United States using chemical and radiological weapons and said al-Qaeda was developing and refining various new means of attack.

“The information we have points to plots aimed at targets on two fronts, in the United States and on the Arabian Peninsula.  It points to plots timed to occur as early as the end of the Hajj, which occurs late this week.  And it points to plots that could include the use of a radiological dispersion device as well as poisons and chemicals,” he said.

The intelligence on the suspected plots “is not idle chatter” on the part of terrorists and their associates, he said. 

“It is the most specific we have seen, and it is consistent with both our knowledge of al-Qaeda doctrine and our knowledge of plots this network, and particularly its senior leadership, has been working on for years,” he said.

“If given the choice, al Qaeda terrorists will choose attacks that achieve multiple objectives — striking prominent landmarks, inflicting mass casualties, causing economic disruption, rallying support through shows of strength,” he said.

For further information, see:

Tenet’s prepared testimony

Mueller’s prepared testimony

Jacoby’s prepared testimony

Ford’s prepared testimony

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U.S. Response:  Residents Should Stockpile Supplies, Officials Say

U.S. families should prepare a three-day stockpile of food and water, along with other supplies, to have on hand in the event of a terrorist attack involving weapons of mass destruction, U.S. officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 10).

In addition to having quantities of food set aside, families should also choose a room in their house where they will gather in the event of a WMD attack, and have available duct tape and plastic sheeting needed to seal it, officials said.  They also recommended that families have a stockpile of emergency items, including scissors, blankets, radios and spare batteries.

“We see information on citizen preparedness as prudent planning,” said Homeland Security Department spokesman Gordon Johndroe.  “It’s appropriate for citizens to be informed about how to respond to a terrorist attack, much as people have prepared for years to be ready for tornadoes, hurricanes or floods,” he said.

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, U.S. officials have often been criticized for issuing vague terrorism threat alerts without providing the public with information on what steps to take to protect themselves, according to Washington Post.  The new intelligence information indicating that U.S. residents could be targeted with weapons of mass destruction has made it more difficult to balance the need to alert people to the threat without causing undue panic, terrorism experts said.

“While police departments and local governments have a menu of steps they take in reaction to the higher threat alerts, private citizens don’t, and there’s not a hell of a lot an ordinary citizen can do,” said Brian Jenkins, a Rand Corp. counterterrorism specialist.  “That creates consternation, maybe even an atmosphere of terror that terrorists want to create.  And so that leads the government now to try to offer advice to people,” he added.

U.S. officials have begun to study the public preparedness campaign Israel launched before the Gulf War, when families there were given supplies to protect themselves from possible Iraqi chemical weapons attacks, said Randall Larsen, director of the Anser Institute for Homeland Security.

“The Israelis learned one main task is psychologically preparing the population,” Larsen said.  “Americans need to be prepared the way the Israelis are.  The most important message we could send to terrorists after the next attack is get up and go to work the next morning,” he added.

U.S. officials have taken a number of actions to help increase homeland security since elevating the terrorism alert level Friday to “orange,” indicating a high risk of attack, according to the Post.  Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge held a conference call with 66 corporate executives in charge of U.S. energy facilities urging them to increase security.  Owners of large buildings have also been advised to secure air-intake equipment to prevent possible chemical attacks, the Post reported. 

“The announcement on Friday was a signal to private industry and to state and local officials that more actions need to be taken,” Johndroe said (John Mintz, Washington Post, Feb. 11).

New York Police on the Lookout

Meanwhile, New York police are investigating a possible terrorist plot involving individuals armed with “conventional or improvised weapons,” according to the New York Post.

An alert issued by the New York Police Department’s counterterrorism unit warns law enforcement officials to be aware of “unusual conditions and activities” that might occur before an attack.  Police should be prepared for the “release of toxic substances in populated and contained environments,” the alert said.

New York subway riders are concerned about a possible underground attack, the Post reported.

“Just keep your eyes open and your fingers crossed,” said Andrew Washington, a 28-year-old bank teller from Manhattan.  “That’s all we can do,” he added (Celona/Lisi, New York Post, Feb. 11).

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International Response:  Annan Reappoints Al-Qaeda Monitoring Panel

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan last week renewed for one year a U.N. panel responsible for monitoring sanctions imposed on al-Qaeda and the Taliban (see GSN, Jan. 22).  In a letter to the U.N. Security Council, Annan said he had reappointed the five-member panel, headed by British delegate Michael Chandler, through Jan. 17, 2004, according to a U.N. press release.  The panel was reappointed without any changes to its membership (U.N. release, Feb. 6).

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Threat Assessment:  U.S. Threat Level Raised to “Orange”

The White House today raised the U.S. terrorism alert level to “orange,” indicating a high risk of attack, according to CNN.com (see GSN, Sept. 10, 2002).  The United States had previously been on “yellow” alert, which indicated an elevated risk of attack.

U.S. officials recommended that Bush increase the threat level after several days of debate within the administration, according to sources.  Today’s action will be only the second time the terrorism alert level has been increased (Kelli Arena, CNN.com, Feb. 7).

The U.S. State Department also issued a worldwide terrorist alert yesterday, warning U.S. citizens of a heightened threat of attacks, including suicide attacks and kidnappings, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Feb. 5). 

“The Department of State reminds Americans that U.S. citizens and interests are at a heightened risk of terrorist attacks by groups with links to al-Qaeda,” the alert said.

While terrorist attacks using conventional weapons pose a more immediate danger, “terrorist use of nonconventional weapons, including chemical or biological agents, must be considered a growing threat,” the alert said (Associated Press/Foxnews.com, Feb. 7).

CIA, FBI Warn of Threats

The new terrorist warnings come as the CIA and the FBI have both warned of possible terrorist attacks against U.S. targets both here and abroad, according to reports.

The CIA believes that al-Qaeda operatives are planning at least two attacks against U.S. interests by the middle of this month, according to the New York Daily News.  The attacks, which would coincide with the end of the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca known as the hajj, could involve the use of radiological weapons, the Daily News reported (see GSN, Jan. 31).

Al-Qaeda operatives might attempt attacks that “potentially could involve a radiological dispersal device,” and could combine large-scale efforts with  “smaller attacks at multiple places around the world,” a CIA warning said.

U.S. officials have learned of planned attacks against targets both within the United States and in Saudi Arabia, according to the CIA warning.  Al-Qaeda operatives are also planning a possible attack against the U.S. consulate in Lahore, Pakistan, as soon as next week, the warning said (James Gordon Meek, New York Daily News, Feb. 7).

U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft warned of an increased risk of a terrorist attack against “lightly secured targets,” such as apartment buildings and hotels (Curt Anderson, Associated Press/Washington Post, Feb. 6).

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Threat Assessment:  Al-Qaeda Poses the Most “Viable” Threat, FBI to Report

U.S. sources have said that an FBI report scheduled to be presented to Congress next week will say al-Qaeda still poses the most “viable” terrorist threat to the United States, USA Today reported today.

The FBI’s first National Threat Assessment will also include information on the capabilities of other terrorist organizations and identify the chemical and biological agents thought to be most likely to be used by terrorists, sources said.  It will also outline how al-Qaeda has changed since the war in Afghanistan and will contain information indicating that al-Qaeda operatives have discussed a new attack on the United States that would be more severe than the Sept. 11 attacks.  The bureau will present the report to House and Senate intelligence committee members in closed meetings set for Tuesday and Wednesday, USA Today reported.

“Al-Qaeda is still a viable threat” a source familiar with the report said.  “You cannot doubt that they are back and they are aggressive, and they are coming after us.  Are they as large as they were?  No.  Is the capability (to attack Americans) still there?  Absolutely,” the source added (Locy/Johnson, USA Today, Feb. 5).

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