Iraq:  Panel Finds Al-Samoud 2 Missile Violates U.N. Resolutions

A panel of international ballistic missile experts convened this week by chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix has unanimously determined that Iraq’s al-Samoud 2 missile program violates U.N. resolutions, U.S. and U.N. officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 12).

Blix had asked the panel of experts from six countries, including the United States, to resolve the question of whether two Iraqi missile programs — the al-Samoud 2 and the al-Fatah — violated U.N. mandates prohibiting Iraq from possessing missiles ranges greater than 150 kilometers.  In its December 2002 declaration to Blix, Iraq said the two missiles slightly exceeded that range in testing, but that this would change once they were equipped with warheads and guidance systems. 

“Iraq declared that the missiles are of a range of less than 150 kilometers,” said Iraq’s U.N. Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri.  “If that’s the case, no one can ask us to destroy them,” he added.

The panel determined that the al-Samoud 2 was capable of ranges beyond the U.N. limit, according to the Washington Post.  The panel was unable to agree, however, on whether the al-Fatah was also in violation of U.N. resolutions.

The two missile systems do not significantly alter the military balance in the Persian Gulf region — one reason why the missile range limit was originally imposed on Iraq, according to U.N. diplomats and missile experts.  However, the programs might be part of an effort to greatly extend the ranges of other Iraqi missiles, U.S. and U.N. officials said.

“My understanding is that one of the two missiles that is being analyzed definitely has a capacity that exceeds the range of 150 kilometers,” said John Negroponte, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.  “That is something that our own intelligence sources have been telling us for months.  But, apparently, now it’s a matter of agreement among the experts,” he added (Lynch/Priest, Washington Post, Feb. 13).

Iraq, however, has defended the missile programs and denied that they violated U.N. resolutions, according to CNN.com.

“We are still within limits that are decided by the United Nations,” said Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz.  “(They are) not very dangerous and must not be exaggerated.  There is no serious violation,” he added (CNN.com, Feb. 13).

Even though the missiles had been flight-tested beyond the U.N.-allowed ranges, those results could have been accidental, Aziz said.

“The main problem is that Iraqi missiles which are of a very short range don’t have a guidance system and when a missile doesn’t have a guidance system it goes five, 10, 15 kilometers beyond (target),” Aziz said.  “That is not very dangerous and must not be exaggerated,” he added (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Feb. 13).

Officials and experts from countries opposed to the U.S. calls for military action against Iraq, such as France and Russia, have said that the panel’s findings indicate that the inspections process is working and should be continued, according to the New York Times.

“An exceeding of the range was declared,” said Yuri Fedotov, a Russian disarmament specialist.  It should be taken “precisely as an example of cooperation” by Iraq, he said.

Blix appears to be preparing to demand that Iraq give up the missiles for destruction, Security Council diplomats said.  Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, however, is unlikely to comply with such a demand as the likelihood of a U.S.-led attack increases, according to diplomats (Preston/Schmitt, New York Times, Feb. 13).

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North Korea:  Missile Can Reach U.S. West Coast, Intelligence Says

North Korea can reach the West Coast of the United States with a long-range ballistic missile, top U.S. intelligence officials said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 13).

The untested three-stage version of the Taepodong 2 missile can reach the western United States and possibly points further inland, according to Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.  CIA Director George Tenet, joining Jacoby in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, concurred with Jacoby’s assessment.

North Korea has threatened to resume flight tests, but without such tests the reliability of a missile is dubious, the Associated Press reported (John Lumpkin, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 13).

A potential ballistic missile carrying nuclear weapons from North Korea has been discussed in U.S. intelligence reports since the late 1990s, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The 2001 National Intelligence Estimate said that a three-stage Taepodong could carry several hundred pounds about 9,000 miles, which is sufficient to reach all of North America, the Times reported (Richter/Rubin, Feb. 13, Los Angeles Times).

“This old news is why it’s important to proceed with deployment of missile defense and also why the president is focused on multilateral diplomatic talks to deal with North Korea,” said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer (Lumpkin, Associated Press/Yahoo.com).

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Iraq:  International Experts Considering Iraqi Missile Systems

A panel of missile experts commissioned by chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix is scheduled to meet today and tomorrow to investigate two Iraqi missile programs and determine if they violate U.N. resolutions, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 4).

The missile experts will examine the al-Samoud 2 and al-Fatah programs, according to AP.

Blix said that he wanted the experts to “give us advice because if we have to take a decision — and we may have to do so — then I would like to have the technical side secure.”

U.N. lawyers will also look into the situation because “I also want to have the legal side secure,” Blix added.

Under U.N. resolutions, Iraq is not permitted to have missiles with ranges greater than 93 miles.  Blix has said that the al-Samoud 2 has passed that mark 13 times in 40 tests, according to Security Council diplomats.  The missile traveled 114 miles during one test, they said.  The al-Fatah exceeded the 93-mile limitation eight times during its 33 tests, the officials said.  At one point that missile traveled 100 miles, they added.

Iraq released documents on the missile programs to U.N. officials Sunday, Blix said.

“These missiles might very well represent prima facie cases of proscribed systems,” Blix said.  “In the meantime, we have asked Iraq to cease flight tests of both missiles,” he added.

Iraqi officials said that the missiles would be weighed down with control systems in their final forms and would not be able to travel more than 93 miles, AP reported (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Austin American-Statesman, Feb. 10).

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