Weapons of Mass Destruction 
Iraq I:  Blix to Tell Security Council Baghdad Still Not in ComplianceFull Story
Iraq II:  Pentagon Preparing to Secure and Dismantle WMD Sites During ConflictFull Story
Iraq III:  Summary of InspectionsFull Story
Threat Assessment:  CIA Director Describes ‘New World of Proliferation’Full Story
Iraq I:  France Presents Inspections Proposal to U.N. Security CouncilFull Story
United States:  Judge Places Temporary Security Limits on Classified CaseFull Story
Iraq II:  Summary of InspectionsFull Story
U.S. Response:  Bush Budget Targets WMD Threat, But Shortfalls RemainFull Story
Iraq:  France, Germany, Russia Call for Peaceful SolutionFull Story
Iraq II:  Summary of InspectionsFull Story
Iraq I:  Baghdad Officials Make Concessions to U.N. InspectorsFull Story
Iraq II:  Summary of InspectionsFull Story
Iraq I:  Bush Supports Second U.N. ResolutionFull Story
Iraq II:  United States Appears Set on War, Experts SayFull Story
Iraq III:  Summary of InspectionsFull Story
United States:  Prosecutors Say Ex-Couple Had Top Secret Nuclear PapersFull Story


Recent Stories: WMD

From February 13, 2003 issue.

Iraq I:  Blix to Tell Security Council Baghdad Still Not in Compliance

U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix is expected to tell the U.N. Security Council tomorrow that Iraq is still not fully complying with its disarmament obligations, U.N. diplomats said (see GSN, Feb. 12).

One example Blix will likely to refer to in his report is the yesterday’s finding by a panel of international ballistic missile experts that the Iraqi al-Samoud 2 missile violates U.N. resolutions, according to the Los Angeles Times (see related GSN story, today).  He is also expected to say that for inspectors to be effective they will need more extensive cooperation from Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime.

In his report, however, Blix is also expected to note that Iraq has recently increased its cooperation with inspectors, the Times reported.  For example, Iraq has recently granted permission for overflights by U-2 reconnaissance aircraft and has begun to allow private interviews with Iraqi scientists and technicians (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 13).

The Security Council yesterday decided to make tomorrow’s briefing by Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei a meeting open to non-Security Council members, according to a U.N. press release.  This was done because several foreign ministers had expressed an interest in participating in the meeting, said council President Gunter Pleuger, Germany’s U.N. ambassador 

“Members will hear the reports of Dr. Blix and Dr. ElBaradei and then have a chance to discuss them first in open meeting, followed by a closed meeting for the members of the Council,” Pleuger said in a statement (U.N. release, Feb. 12).

So far, the foreign ministers of all five permanent Security Council members, along with German Foreign Minister Joschka Fisher, have said they will attend the meeting, according to the New York Times.  Until yesterday, the meeting had been set to be a closed session where council diplomats would hear Blix and ElBaradei’s report and then discuss it in private.  This new format, however, is likely to allow little time for closed debate, where views are more readily expressed, said U.S. and British diplomats.

Representatives from several nonpermanent council members also said they did not like the idea of holding the open meeting.

“It’s a mess,” one envoy said.  “We are supposed to be getting work done,” the envoy added (Preston/Schmitt, New York Times, Feb. 13).

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that he would confront the assembled foreign ministers at Friday’s meeting as to whether they were prepared to let Iraq “off the hook.”

“This is the question I will put to them Friday,” Powell said before the House International Relations Committee.  “We are reaching a moment of truth as to whether or not this matter will be resolved peacefully or will be resolved by military conflict,” he added (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times).

The Security Council also decided yesterday to hold another open meeting Feb. 18 to allow members of the U.N. General Assembly to express their views on the Iraq situation, according to Pleuger.  At that meeting, non-Security Council members will be given the opportunity to speak first, Pleuger said.

“The idea behind this is that mainly the council members will discuss the reports on Friday — so for more transparency — Council members felt there should be an opportunity to give members of the General Assembly who are not members of the Council the chance to discuss this important issue,” Pleuger said (U.N. release).

U.S. officials have said that they, along with British officials, have increased efforts this week to draft a U.N. resolution declaring Iraq in “material breach” of its obligations.  The White House has not yet decided whether to submit the resolution, U.S. officials said (Preston/Schmitt, New York Times).  The United Kingdom, however, might distribute the draft language next week, according to the Los Angeles Times. 

The United States has determined that Germany and Syria are likely to vote against any new resolution, according to the Times.  There are still hopes, however, that Powell can persuade France, Russia and China to at least abstain, rather than veto a new resolution.  At that point, such a resolution would probably be narrowly approved, U.S. officials said (Wright/Farley, Los Angeles Times).

NATO

For the second consecutive day, NATO members failed yesterday to resolve an internal dispute over providing defensive planning to Turkey to prepare for possible Iraqi retaliation in the event of war, according to diplomats.

“The meeting is over, they failed to agree.  The three reiterated their position,” a diplomat said, referring to the Belgian-French-German opposition to a U.S. request for such planning to begin.  There might be another meeting today in order to resolve the dispute, the diplomat said (Reuters, Feb. 12).

Bombed Again

Meanwhile, U.S. military aircraft conducted a second attack yesterday on an Iraqi mobile ballistic missile launcher and its related vehicles located in the southern no-fly zone near Basra, according to the Washington Post.  U.S. aircraft returned to the site to attack the launcher’s radar system (Thomas Ricks, Washington Post, Feb. 13). 

Inspections

U.N. inspectors have visited at least seven suspect Iraqi sites today, according to Reuters.  Chemical experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited an agricultural airstrip just north of Baghdad.  UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the Badr State Company and the al-Fida State Company, both located in Baghdad. 

Inspectors also went to the Ibn Roshd State Company in Baghdad and to a site in the northern city of Mosul, Reuters reported.  IAEA inspectors visited the Ibn al-Haitham State Company on the outskirts of Baghdad and a military depot and firing range at Fallujah (Reuters/AlertNet, Feb. 13).

Yesterday, inspectors interviewed an Iraqi scientist and a retired Iraqi diplomat, according to the Associated Press.  Inspectors asked the scientist about Iraq’s past centrifuge program, according to a U.N. statement.  The Iraqi Information Ministry said the retired diplomat was asked about allegations that Iraq attempted to purchase uranium from Niger after 1998 (Charles Hanley, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 13).

Inspectors also visited at least seven suspect Iraqi sites yesterday, according to an IAEA press release.  UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited the al-Qadissya water treatment plant and the al-Mahmoudiyah water treatment plant to conduct baseline inspections.  UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited the Jaber bin Hyan State Company, which produces components for the al-Samoud missile, to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and to establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism.

IAEA inspectors conducted a automobile-based radiation survey and installed an air sampler at a facility north of Baghdad.  A second IAEA team visited a facility west of Baghdad and installed an air sampler there.  IAEA inspectors also met with a senior Iraqi diplomat at the Iraqi Foreign Affairs Ministry in Baghdad (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 12).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

U.N. Resolution 1441


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From February 13, 2003 issue.

Iraq II:  Pentagon Preparing to Secure and Dismantle WMD Sites During Conflict

In case the United States leads a military action against Iraq, the U.S. Defense Department has begun planning to secure, and ultimately destroy, Iraq’s suspected WMD stockpiles both during and after the conflict, a senior Pentagon official said Monday (see related GSN story, today).

“This will be a new mission for the department and for our nation,” U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  “It is complex and will take place as part of military operations, continuing into the post-conflict period,” he added.

The first task for the U.S. military will be to find and secure Iraqi WMD sites, Feith said.  “This will have to be done in many places and as quickly as possible,” he said (Federal News Service transcript, Feb. 11).

Trained members in U.S. special forces units will handle the bulk of the responsibility of handling discovered Iraqi WMD sites and materials, according to Newhouse News Service.  Because Iraqi WMD sites are scattered throughout the country, however, regular U.S. forces will also probably need to secure some sites.

The risks to troops are great, one analyst said.  For example, U.S. troops could attack a site that contained smallpox stockpiles and accidentally cause a release.  “Then you could become the instigator of a large smallpox outbreak in the Tigris-Euphrates Valley — and that wouldn’t look good in world opinion, not to mention in the Arab world,” said Hal Kempfer, a military intelligence officer and expert in chemical and biological weapons.

The chances of an accidental release are augmented by uncertainty over where Iraqi WMD sites are located, according to Newhouse.

“That’s the chief danger,” said Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  “The real dangers come when you don’t have the intelligence, and you stumble across these weapons and you inadvertently blow up a storage facility,” he added (David Wood, Newhouse News Service, Feb. 12).

Once Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is overthrown, there will still remain a need to dismantle Iraq’s WMD infrastructure and to redirect the country’s dual-use industrial capabilities and scientific expertise to legitimate uses, Feith said Tuesday.  He noted that experts from other U.S agencies, and from our allies and international organizations, could all play a role in this effort.

Feith warned, however, that the dismantling of Iraq’s WMD programs would not happen quickly.

“The task of eliminating all nuclear, chemical and biological stockpiles, facilities and infrastructure will take time,” Feith said.  “We cannot now even venture a sensible guess as to the amount,” he added (Federal News Service transcript).


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From February 13, 2003 issue.

Iraq III:  Summary of Inspections

Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27.  More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul.  The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.

Date Site Activity
Feb. 13 Agricultural airstrip just north of Baghdad See GSN, Feb. 13.
Badr State Company in Baghdad
Al-Fida State Company
Ibn Roshd State Company in Baghdad
Site in the nothern city of Mosul
Ibn al-Haitham State Company
Military depot and firing range at Fallujah
Feb. 12 Al-Qadissya water treatment plant UNMOVIC chemical inspectors conducted a baseline inspection (see GSN, Feb. 13).
Al-Mahmoudiyah water treatment plant UNMOVIC chemical inspectors conducted a baseline inspection (see GSN, Feb. 13).
Jaber bin Hyan State Company UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and established a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (see GSN, Feb. 13).
Facility north of Baghdad IAEA inspectors conducted a car-borne radiation survey and installed an air sampler (see GSN, Feb. 13).
Facility west of Baghdad IAEA inspectors inspected the site and installed an air sampler (see GSN, Feb. 13).
Foreign Affairs Ministry in Baghdad IAEA inspectors met with a senior Iraqi diplomat (see GSN, Feb. 13).
Al-Muthanna, about 90 miles north of Baghdad Inspectors began destroying four containers of mustard gas and 10 155 mm artillery shells located at the site (see GSN, Feb. 12).
Feb. 11   Al-Muthanna, about 90 miles north of Baghdad UNMOVIC chemical inspectors prepared containers of mustard gas and artillery shells at the site for destruction (see GSN, Feb. 12).
Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center See GSN, Feb. 12.
Two military bases south of Baghdad IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 12).
17th of Nissan factory in Baghdad See GSN, Feb. 11.
Feb. 10 Ibn Firnas Company UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq's declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Samarra East Airfield UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Al-Mamoun UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq's declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Al-Fekar Factory UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Military Hospital UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted a ground survey in a section of the hospital’s compound (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Seed-processing facility east of An Nu'maniyah. IAEA release, Feb. 10.
7 Nissan stores in southeast Baghdad
Mosul Raiyard AR Rayanihay RR Siding
Um al-Maarik IAEA inspectors worked to establish the current disposition of monitored machine tools (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Badr State Establishment IAEA inspectors worked to establish the current disposition of monitored machine tools (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Tigris River section, just south of Baghdad IAEA inspectors conducted a carborne radiation survey (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Al-Musaayaib Ammo Depot, south of Baghdad Inspectors visited the site’s bunkers, warehouses, small buildings and storage areas (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Feb. 9 Agricultural Research Center IAEA release, Feb. 9.
Agricultural Research Center breeding station
School on the western outskirts of Baghdad UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted a geo-physical survey of an area of land within the perimeter of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Dairy products facility in an eastern suburb of Baghdad IAEA release, Feb. 9.
Al-Battani Center
Al-Mutasim
Al-Mamoun
Al Taji Ammunition Depot, north of Baghdad Inspectors recovered a sample from an empty 122mm chemical warhead previously found at the site.  Inspectors also discovered an empty 122 mm al-Burak chemical warhead and an empty plastic chemical agent canister (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Nineveh Health Authority Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Unit IAEA release, Feb. 9.
Baghdad IAEA inspectors conducted a mobile radiation survey (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Baghdad IAEA inspectors held technical meetings with officials (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Feb. 8 Al-Rasheed Water Project in Baghdad See GSN, Feb. 10.
Al-Mutassim Training Institute in northwestern Baghdad
Djerf al-Naddaf facility
Mosul Technical Institute
Baghdad area IAEA inspectors conducted a motorized radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 10).
Baghdad IAEA inspectors deployed two mobile air-sampling units at two locations (see GSN, Feb. 10).
Feb. 7 Al-Wathba Water Project in Baghdad IAEA release, Feb. 7.
Suwaira Stores Plant Protection Division
Technical Institute
Combined agricultural and ammunition storage site near al-Kut
Al-Waziriyah
Munitions store IAEA release, Feb. 8.
Samarra Drug Industry UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 7).
Salah Ad Din State Company UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 7).
Jan. 31-Feb. 6 See GSN, Feb. 7.  

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From February 12, 2003 issue.

Threat Assessment:  CIA Director Describes ‘New World of Proliferation’

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The world entered a new era of proliferation last year, one with intensified demand for weapons of mass destruction and new sources of key technologies, CIA Director George Tenet testified yesterday.  The international consensus on preventing proliferation, he said, is “weakening.”

“More has changed on nuclear proliferation over the past year than on any other issue,” he said at an annual hearing before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on the subject of global threats (see GSN, Feb. 11).

“We have entered a new world of proliferation,” he said.

He predicted the trend would continue, as nations seek nuclear weapons for deterrence against perceived threats from larger powers and potential regional adversaries also seeking nuclear weapons.

“The desire for nuclear weapons is on the upsurge,” he said.

Tenet said also chemical and biological warfare programs are maturing and becoming less reliant on foreign suppliers, complicating U.S. monitoring efforts.

“Countries are more and more tightly integrating both their BW and CW production capabilities into apparently legitimate commercial infrastructures, further concealing them from scrutiny,” he said.

Critics charged that Tenet is overstating a proliferation trend that has been in existence for decades.

“The disservice was I think Tenet’s aggregating these threats that are totally different and have deep historic roots and making them seem like a modern, coherent movement,” said Jack Mendelsohn, a former State Department arms control official.

“This plays into the hands of the administration admirably, in saying the world is a more dangerous place and we need to go out there and go after everybody.  It justifies in a large sense their aggressive unilateral policies,” he said.

New Trends

While over the past 60 years, key nuclear technologies have been retained by only a few states, Tenet said, “in the vanguard of this new world, we are knowledgeable about nonstate purveyors of WMD materials and technology.”

“Such nonstate outlets are increasingly capable of providing technology and equipment that previously could only be supplied by countries with established capabilities,” he said.

At the same time, Tenet said, the “international nonproliferation consensus” has “continued weakening.”

“Control regimes, like the NPT [Nuclear Nonproliferation] Treaty, are being battered by developments such as North Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT and its open repudiation of other agreements,” he said.

Smaller states will seek nuclear weapons as deterrence against threats from more powerful countries he said.

“The example of new nuclear states that seem able to deter threats from more powerful states simply by brandishing nuclear weaponry will resonate deeply among other countries that want to enter the nuclear weapons club,” he said.

Furthermore, the neighbors of states seeking nuclear weapons may also be compelled to do so, he said.

“The domino theory of the 21st century may well be nuclear.  With the assistance of proliferators, a potentially wider range of countries may be able to develop nuclear weapons by leapfrogging the incremental pace of weapons programs in other countries,” he said.

U.S. Policies

While acknowledging North Korea’s breakout behavior, Bush administration critics have charged that the president’s own high-profile policies have contributed to proliferation, by causing some developing states to question their security.

These policies include the labeling Iran, Iraq and North Korea as an “axis of evil,” developing a new concept of pre-emptive war absent proof of an imminent threat, threatening Iraq with military action over its suspected weapons of mass destruction programs, and opposing or rejecting international arms control treaties or proposals that constrain U.S. military power.

“It seems that they [nations suspected of developing weapons of mass destruction] have probably had an impetus recently, and that impetus is that they see those U.S. policies as highly provocative,” Mendelsohn said.

The Bush administration has indicated those countries are considered a military challenge.

We must be prepared to stop rogue states and their terrorist clients before they are able to threaten or use weapons of mass destruction against the United States and our allies and friends,” said an administration national security strategy document released last year (see GSN, Sept. 23, 2002).

Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the administration’s policies regarding international nonproliferation regimes have also affected the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

He cited the administration’s refusal to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, its suggestions the United States might use nuclear weapons first despite previous assurances to the contrary, its withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and “the overall ideology of the administration that holds treaties in very low esteem.”

“There is no question that North Korean withdrawal [from the NPT] is a crisis, but by far the biggest battering ram has been wielded by the United States itself,” he said.

Mendelsohn said, however, that the roots of the North Korean, Iranian and Iraqi nuclear weapons programs differ and they predate the current global security environment.

“These countries have for various reasons, for two decades, been in pursuit of these weapons,” he said.

Cirincione took issue with Tenet’s comments on “nonstate purveyors” of WMD technology, saying the phrase was misleading.

“Of course its individual companies that are selling nuclear technologies to other states, it’s always been that way,” he said. 

“This phrase, ‘nonstate actors,’ makes it seem as though it’s terrorist groups, or outside of state control, which isn’t true.  By phrasing it this way, he acts as if therefore states can have no control over them, as if they are out of legal, diplomatic control. … In sum, this is a justification of the use of military force as an instrument of choice to solve proliferation problems,” Cirincione said.

Proliferators

In prepared testimony, Tenet described in greater detail the status of WMD proliferation in a number of countries.

He noted changes over the past year in the status of North Korea’s suspected nuclear weapons program

“This includes developing a capability to enrich uranium, ending the freeze on its plutonium production facilities, and withdrawing from the Nonproliferation Treaty,” he said.

If, “as seems likely,” North Korea decides to reprocess spent nuclear reactor fuel in its possession, it may be able to derive sufficient plutonium for several additional weapons, he said, and noted continued North Korean proliferation of complete ballistic missile systems, production facilities and key technologies.

“Although [President Kim Jong Il] presumably calculates the North’s aid, trade, and investment climate will never improve in the face of U.S. sanctions, and perceived hostility, he is equally committed to retaining and enlarging his nuclear weapons stockpile,” he said.

Tenet expressed renewed concern about the Libya’s suspected interest in acquiring chemical weapons. 

He charged that Chinese firms remain key suppliers of ballistic and cruise missile-related technologies to Pakistan, Iran and several other countries.

He said, on a positive note, that Russia has cut back on sensitive nuclear fuel-cycle assistance to Iran, having reexamined at least some aspects of that cooperation.

Nevertheless, Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons, and is “moving toward self-sufficiency on its BW and CW programs.”

No Iranian government, he said, “regardless of its ideological leanings, is likely to willingly abandon WMD programs that are seen as guaranteeing Iran’s security,” he said.

India and Pakistan continue to develop and produce nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, he said.

New Views on Missile Threats

Tenet also presented a new, more urgent assessment than in previous years of potential long-range ballistic threats posed by North Korea, Iran and Iraq.

He said the United States faces a “near term” threat from North Korea and “over the next several years” could face a similar threat from Iran and possibly Iraq.

In his testimony last year, Tenet recounted an intelligence community estimate the United States would most likely face intercontinental ballistic missile threats from North Korea, Iran, and possibly Iraq, by 2015.


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From February 12, 2003 issue.

Iraq I:  France Presents Inspections Proposal to U.N. Security Council

France, with Russian and German support, offered the U.N. Security Council a detailed plan yesterday outlining new measures to expand and strengthen the weapons inspection regime in Iraq, according to the New York Times (see GSN, Feb. 11).

The French plan calls for tripling the number of inspectors now operating in Iraq and increasing aerial surveillance flights as well.  The plan does not, however, include any mention of inspectors being supported by U.N. peacekeepers, a measure that had been discussed earlier.

“The idea is to make sure that the present system submits the Iraqi authorities to continued pressure,” the French document says.  “Our approach is based on the need to compel Iraq to cooperate by taking the peaceful approach of intrusive inspections,” it adds.

France has proposed to strengthen the security units that work with inspectors, so that they can place troops at suspect Iraqi sites and prevent them from being tampered with before inspectors arrive, the Times reported (Preston/Weisman, New York Times, Feb. 12).  The numbers of technical support personnel and translators fluent in Arabic should also be increased, according to the French plan.  It also envisions the creation of mobile customs teams to monitor the flow of goods into and out of Iraq, as well as an office in western Iraq to act as a base for such teams, according to Time (Frank Pellegrini, Time, Feb. 12). 

The French proposal calls for the heads of the inspections teams, chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, to appoint a permanent inspections chief to be based in Baghdad and to create a full list of remaining disarmament tasks, according to the New York Times.

“It is important to push the Iraqis up against a wall and not leave them any way out regarding questions which they must answer,” the French plan says.

U.S. Officials Meet With Blix

U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and John Wolf, assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, met with Blix yesterday and urged him to strongly criticize Iraq in his Friday report to the Security Council.  During the meeting, Rice told Blix that time was running out for inspections, according to  Bush administration officials.

Rice refused to set a deadline for the end of inspections, but said, “At some point it will become obvious that it’s time for them to go,” an administration official said.

U-2 Flights

Meanwhile, a translation of a letter delivered by Iraqi officials to Blix and ElBaradei Monday appears to say that Iraq has put a number of preconditions on any reconnaissance flights by U-2 high-altitude aircraft, according to the New York Times (see GSN, Feb. 10).  Iraq’s U.N. Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri had said that Iraq had given permission for the flights to begin without conditions.  The letter, however, says that Iraq has demanded “timely notification of each flight, including time and point of entry, speed and call signal that ensures communication with the pilot if necessary” (Preston/Weisman, New York Times).

“This is not a serious concession,” a U.S. official said.  “It’s conditioned,” the official added.

While Blix has not responded to the Iraqi letter, he did agree during a meeting last month in Baghdad to notify Iraqi officials of each reconnaissance flight, according to U.N. officials.  They noted that the Security Council had endorsed the inspectors’ decision to follow previous guidelines, which included notification of U-2 flights.

Missile Panel

Blix has also convened an international panel of ballistic missile experts to help determine whether two Iraqi missile programs —the al-Samoud 2 and the al-Fatah — violate U.N. regulations.  Blix is expected to receive a report on the panel’s finding before his briefing to the Security Council at the end of this week, the Washington Post reported.  With those findings, Blix will then tell the council whether Iraq is required to dismantle those programs and destroy its missile components capable of advancing missile ranges beyond U.N. limits (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Feb. 12).

Security Council Views

China has indicated its support for the French-German-Russian position that inspections should be strengthened and expanded, rather than ended for military action, Agence France-Presse reported today.

“The inspection in Iraq is effective and should be continued and strengthened so as to implement Resolution 1441,” the official Chinese Xinhua news agency quoted Chinese President Jiang Zemin as telling French President Jacques Chirac.  “Warfare is good for no one and it is our responsibility to take various measures to avoid war,” Jiang added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Feb. 12).

Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated yesterday that his country might veto any Security Council action leading to the “unreasonable use of force.”

Currently, Russia has no need to use its veto, Putin said.  When asked if Russia would support a French veto of a Security Council action, he replied, “If today a proposition was made that we felt would lead to an unreasonable use of force, we would act with France or alone.”

Putin warned against any attempts to launch military action against Iraq outside of the Security Council.  “I am convinced that it would be a grave error to be drawn into unilateral action, outside of international law,” he said (John Leicester, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 11).

Exile

Jordanian officials have said they are urging the United States to offer Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and as many as 50 senior Iraqi officials exile if they voluntarily step down from power, according to the New York Times.

Senior Jordanian officials said the exile proposal was not being offered because they think Hussein will accept, but rather because they believe he will not (see GSN, Feb. 7).  By rejecting the offer, Hussein will isolate himself from other senior Iraqi officials, thereby increasing the chance that he would be overthrown in an internal coup, they said.

Hussein is likely to commit suicide rather than be captured, akin to Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler in the waning days of World War II, said a Jordanian official.  Other senior Iraqi officials, including Hussein’s sons Qusay and Uday, however, would be more likely to save their own skins rather than risk disaster, Jordanian officials said.

“Uday might be the first to shoot his father if he refused an amnesty,” a senior Jordanian official said (John Burns, New York Times, Feb. 12).

NATO

NATO ambassadors met again today in Brussels to try to resolve the continuing internal dispute over providing defensive planning to Turkey in case there is war in Iraq.  The talks were suspended about 90 minutes after they began and are expected to resume later in the day, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

“We have a sound basis to continue consultations further,” NATO spokesman Yves Brodeur said after the meeting.  “[The] allies are all working very hard to find a solution to what is a serious issue.  The work will, therefore, continue toward achieving a solution throughout the day as we believe that we now have elements which could help us to bring the discussion forward,” Brodeur added.

In addition to requesting that defense planning for Turkey begin, the United States had also requested increased protection for U.S. bases in Europe and permission to move troops from the Balkans closer to Iraq, NATO diplomats said.  The United States appears to have dropped those additional requests (Ahto Lobjakas, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Feb. 12).

The Netherlands has decided to provide Turkey with three Patriot missile interceptor batteries to help augment its defenses, according to Channel NewsAsia.  The batteries, along with the 350 Dutch troops, will be deployed at Turkish airbases in the southeastern part of the country.  The Netherlands said it does not need NATO approval to provide the interceptors to Turkey because of a bilateral agreement (Channel NewsAsia, Feb. 12).

United States Bombs Iraqi Missile System

U.S. aircraft today attacked an Iraqi mobile Ababil-100 ballistic missile launcher, along with its command and supply vehicles, U.S. Defense Department officials said.  Eight U.S. fighter jets unleashed 16 bombs on the missile launcher, which was located near the southern city of Basra, officials said.

Iraq had moved the missile launcher into the southern no-fly zone, said a statement from the U.S. Central Command.  “Saddam Hussein put these systems in range of our troops and the people of Kuwait, and under U.N. authority, we struck them,” said Central Command spokesman Jim Wilkinson (Associated Press/Jerusalem Post).

This is the first time U.S. aircraft have attacked a ground-to-ground missile system in a no-fly zone, according to military officials.  Previous U.S. airstrikes targeted systems in the Iraqi air defense network, such as anti-aircraft artillery and radar sites (Robert Schlesinger, Boston Globe, Feb. 12).

Inspections

U.N. inspectors today traveled to al-Muthanna, about 90 miles north of Baghdad, to begin destroying four containers of mustard gas and 10 155 mm artillery shells located at the site, according to Reuters.  The process is expected to last up to five days, a U.N. spokesman said.  The shells and containers had been set to be destroying during inspections in 1998 (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Feb. 12).

Yesterday, inspectors visited three suspect Iraqi sites, according to an IAEA press release.  Chemical experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission traveled to al-Muthanna to begin preparing the shells and containers for destruction.  IAEA inspectors traveled to the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center and conducted a radiation survey of two military bases south of Baghdad (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 11).

For further information, see:

UNMOVIC

IAEA Iraq Action Team

U.N. Resolution 1441


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From February 12, 2003 issue.

United States:  Judge Places Temporary Security Limits on Classified Case

A U.S. federal judge has placed an espionage case in Spokane, Washington, under the Classified Information Protection Act, the Spokane Spokesman Review reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 7).

U.S. District Court Judge Robert Whaley imposed temporary security restrictions on attorneys, court staff members and jurors, after hearing from prosecutors in the case of a former Army National Guard intelligence officer and his ex-wife, who allegedly sent stolen classified documents to domestic anti-government groups.

In asking for the special restriction, U.S. Attorney Earl Hicks said that Rafael Davila stole classified national security documents that should not be revealed in the course of the trial.

“This subject area is one not handled before in this district,” Whaley said, while imposing the temporary restrictions.  The judge said that he would need to study the subject further before making a final ruling on the restrictions, and he delayed the case for four days.

Whaley is scheduled to meet with a court security officer familiar with security precautions in espionage trials, the Spokesman Review reported (Bill Morlin, Spokane Spokesman Review, Feb. 11).


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From February 12, 2003 issue.

Iraq II:  Summary of Inspections

Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27.  More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul.  The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.

 

Date Site Activity
Feb. 12 Al-Muthanna, about 90 miles north of Baghdad Inspectors began destroying four containers of mustard gas and 10 155 mm artillery shells located at the site (see GSN, Feb. 12).
Feb. 11   Al-Muthanna, about 90 miles north of Baghdad UNMOVIC chemical inspectors prepared containers of mustard gas and artillery shells at the site for destruction (see GSN, Feb. 12).
Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center See GSN, Feb. 12.
Two military bases south of Baghdad IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 12).
17th of Nissan factory in Baghdad See GSN, Feb. 11.
Feb. 10 Ibn Firnas Company UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq's declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Samarra East Airfield UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Al-Mamoun UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq's declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Al-Fekar Factory UNMOVIC missile inspectors worked to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and establish a comprehensive monitoring mechanism (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Military Hospital UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted a ground survey in a section of the hospital’s compound (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Seed-processing facility east of An Nu'maniyah. IAEA release, Feb. 10.
7 Nissan stores in southeast Baghdad
Mosul Raiyard AR Rayanihay RR Siding
Um al-Maarik IAEA inspectors worked to establish the current disposition of monitored machine tools (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Badr State Establishment IAEA inspectors worked to establish the current disposition of monitored machine tools (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Tigris River section, just south of Baghdad IAEA inspectors conducted a carborne radiation survey (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Al-Musaayaib Ammo Depot, south of Baghdad Inspectors visited the site’s bunkers, warehouses, small buildings and storage areas (IAEA release, Feb. 10).
Feb. 9 Agricultural Research Center IAEA release, Feb. 9.
Agricultural Research Center breeding station
School on the western outskirts of Baghdad UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted a geo-physical survey of an area of land within the perimeter of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Dairy products facility in an eastern suburb of Baghdad IAEA release, Feb. 9.
Al-Battani Center
Al-Mutasim
Al-Mamoun
Al Taji Ammunition Depot, north of Baghdad Inspectors recovered a sample from an empty 122mm chemical warhead previously found at the site.  Inspectors also discovered an empty 122 mm al-Burak chemical warhead and an empty plastic chemical agent canister (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Nineveh Health Authority Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Unit IAEA release, Feb. 9.
Baghdad IAEA inspectors conducted a mobile radiation survey (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Baghdad IAEA inspectors held technical meetings with officials (IAEA release, Feb. 9).
Feb. 8 Al-Rasheed Water Project in Baghdad See GSN, Feb. 10.
Al-Mutassim Training Institute in northwestern Baghdad
Djerf al-Naddaf facility
Mosul Technical Institute
Baghdad area IAEA inspectors conducted a motorized radiation survey (see GSN, Feb. 10).
Baghdad IAEA inspectors deployed two mobile air-sampling units at two locations (see GSN, Feb. 10).
Feb. 7 Al-Wathba Water Project in Baghdad IAEA release, Feb. 7.
Suwaira Stores Plant Protection Division
Technical Institute
Combined agricultural and ammunition storage site near al-Kut
Al-Waziriyah
Munitions store IAEA release, Feb. 8.
Samarra Drug Industry UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 7).
Salah Ad Din State Company UNMOVIC biological inspectors conducted an aerial inspection of the site (IAEA release, Feb. 7).
Jan. 31-Feb. 6 See GSN, Feb. 7.  

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From February 11, 2003 issue.

U.S. Response:  Bush Budget Targets WMD Threat, But Shortfalls Remain

By Bryan Bender
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Bush administration officials have described the White House’s fiscal 2004 budget request as placing a high premium on defending the United States from major terrorist attacks and preparing federal and state authorities to respond effectively to the growing threat of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons (see GSN, Feb. 3).

The budget plan calls for new spending in a variety of areas — including thwarting terrorists seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction, preparing the public health system to better deal with a WMD attack and expanding the worldwide dragnet for operatives of the al-Qaeda terror network.

Lawmakers and nongovernmental experts, however, contend that while Bush’s $2.23 trillion budget proposal makes significant investments in defending against catastrophic terrorism, many of the White House’s other budget priorities — paramount among them additional income tax cuts — are draining federal resources away from unmet security needs.

They contend that the administration’s budget makes significant strides in reducing the threat of a WMD attack, but that those efforts still do not match the enormity of the problem. 

“We are doing everything in our power to protect the people and to prevent that day from ever happening,” Bush said when he unveiled his budget proposal Feb. 3 at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md.  “We know that our enemies have been working to acquire weapons of mass destruction.  That is a fact,” he said.

“We have every reason to believe that terrorists and outlaw regimes would turn these weapons on the United States,” he added.  “If their ambitions were ever realized, they would set out to inflict catastrophic harm on the United States, with many times the casualties of September the 11th,” Bush said.

Biological Preparations

Combined with the specter of a possible war with Iraq to disarm President Saddam Hussein’s regime of its suspected chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs, the Bush administration is focusing renewed attention on the possibility that a successful WMD attack could be mounted inside U.S. borders.  The most worrisome scenario is a biological attack with the potential to inflict thousands if not millions of casualties.

To address this threat, one key new effort proposed in the new budget is called Project BioShield.  The effort includes $6 billion over the next few years “to quickly make available safer, and more effective vaccines and treatments against agents like smallpox, anthrax, botulinum toxin, ebola, and plague,” Bush told NIH scientists last week (see GSN, Jan. 30).

“Under Project BioShield, the government will have the spending authority to purchase these vaccines in huge amounts, sufficient to meet any emergency that may come,” Bush added.  “We’ll have better and safer smallpox vaccine, antibodies to treat botox, sophisticated devices that can confirm a case of anthrax infection almost instantly.  We will ensure that promising medicines are available for use in an emergency,” he said.

The Health and Human Services Department, headed by Secretary Tommy Thompson, is taking a more active role following the 2001 anthrax attacks to help the nation defend against a variety of bioterrorist threats.  In fiscal 2004, Thompson is asking Congress for $3.6 billion to counter bioterrorism.

While that figure does not reflect the millions in additional spending allocated immediately after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks