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Iraq I: United States, United Kingdom to Submit New ResolutionThe United States and the United Kingdom are expected today to submit a new resolution to the U.N. Security Council declaring Iraq in violation of its disarmament obligations, U.N. diplomats said (see GSN, Feb. 21). British U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock is expected to submit the resolution on behalf of the two countries, Security Council diplomats said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 24). The Bush administration plans to allow U.N. Security Council members only a short amount of time to decide whether they will support the resolution after the heads of the U.N. inspections teams brief the council next month, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday. “It isn’t going to be a long period of time from the tabling of the resolution until a judgment is made as to whether the resolution is ready to be voted on or not,” Powell said. Powell said he saw a briefing by U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, scheduled for March 7, as a last chance for Security Council members to make a decision. “I would assume that once (they have) made that report, everybody will have one last opportunity to make a judgment,” Powell said. “And shortly after that, judgment will have to be made as to what the Security Council should do,” he added. Senior White House officials have begun visiting Security Council members in an attempt to gain their support for the new resolution, according to the Washington Times. Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman and Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations Kim Holmes recently visited Mexico, where diplomats complained of a hostile U.S. approach. “They actually told us: ‘Any country that doesn’t go along with us will be paying a very heavy price,’” a Mexican diplomat said. Assistant Secretary of State Walter Kansteiner recently met with the leaders of Angola, Guinea and Cameroon — all three dependent on U.S. foreign aid, the Times reported. “In Africa, the message is simple: Time is running out and we think they should support us,” a U.S. diplomat said (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, Feb. 24). France Readies Alternative France is expected soon to circulate a Security Council counterproposal to the U.S.-British resolution, calling for a strict disarmament timetable, according to the Financial Times (see GSN, Feb. 12). The French proposal, to be submitted “in the next days” would call for the peaceful disarmament of Iraq, but also propose strict deadlines for it to be accomplished, according to a senior official. By establishing deadlines, support could be increased for later military action through a concrete showing of Iraqi noncompliance, U.N. diplomats said. The United States has resisted such a proposal, however, saying deadlines could only extend discussions without results (Betts/Turner, Financial Times, Feb. 24). Blix Orders Missiles Destroyed Meanwhile, Blix has established Saturday as a deadline by which Iraq must destroy its stockpile of al-Samoud 2 missiles, which have been found to have a range beyond U.N. mandates (see related GSN story, today). U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said he believed Iraq would comply with the order. “If they refused to destroy the weapons, the Security Council will have to make a decision,” Annan said. “I don’t see why they would not destroy them,” he added (London Guardian, Feb. 24). Former Senior Russian Official Visits Baghdad Former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, a long-time friend of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, arrived in Baghdad Saturday on a mission for Russian President Vladimir Putin, a Russian source in Baghdad said yesterday. Primakov was expected to meet with senior Iraqi officials before leaving late yesterday, the source said. The source provided no details on the purpose of the trip (Reuters/CNN.com, Feb. 23). South African Disarmament Experts Arrive in Iraq A team of South African disarmament experts began talks today with senior Iraqi officials in Baghdad on how Iraq can dispose of its weapons of mass destruction, according to Reuters. The team, led by South African Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad, arrived in Baghdad Sunday for an open-ended period of time. “We are coming here to give the Iraqis our own experiences on disarmament. The outcome of our visit [is] that we hope to contribute in stopping a war,” Pahad said. The experts helped disarm South Africa of weapons of mass destruction after the end of apartheid in 1994. They can help Iraq prove it has disarmed itself by aiding Iraqi officials in documentation, said Deon Smit, a South African scientist who was involved in his country’s nuclear disarmament (Reuters/AlertNet, Feb. 24). The seven-member South African team includes Col. Ben Steyn, chemical and biological defense adviser to the South African surgeon general; Philip Coleman, technical adviser to the South African delegation to the Chemical Weapons Convention; and Daan van Beek, head of the Secretariat for the Council for the Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, which implements South Africa’s nonproliferation legislation. In a speech to the South African Parliament last week, President Thabo Mbeki praised the experts for their knowledge and their efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Iraq crisis, according to a South African Department of Foreign Affairs release. “Between them they will be able to address all matters that relate to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction, missile systems, nonproliferation and disarmament, affecting all weapons of mass destruction,” Mbeki said. “As they leave our shores, we wish them Godspeed, confident that they will contribute everything they can to help Iraq fully to respond proactively to the obligations imposed by the U.N. Security Council resolution 1441,” he added, referring to the resolution that established the current inspections regime (SAPA/BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Feb. 24). Inspections U.N. inspectors visited at least four suspect Iraqi sites today, according to the Associated Press. Inspectors visited two plants that produce missile engines and guidance systems, as well as a chemical and explosives plant and an anti-aircraft missile maintenance facility, the Iraqi Information Ministry said (Niko Price, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 24). Yesterday, inspectors visited at least eight suspect Iraqi sites, according to an IAEA press release. Missile experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited al-Quadissiya, al-Melad, and observed a static test of an al-Samoud 2 missile at al-Rafah. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited al-Murage Company for Perfume Production in Baghdad. UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited the Tabook State Company, formerly known as the Karbala Ammunition Filling Plant, according to the IAEA release. They also visited the Veterinary College at Mosul University and the Ninevah Food Industrial Company, both located in the northern city of Mosul. IAEA inspectors conducted a radiation survey near al-Muthanna site (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 23). For further information, see:
From February 24, 2003 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 200 U.N. personnel, including about 150 inspectors, are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.
From February 21, 2003 issue.Iraq I: Washington, London Set Their U.N. Strategy: Dare a VetoU.S. and British diplomats have settled on their diplomatic strategy in the U.N. Security Council: win nine votes for a new resolution on Iraq, the bare minimum needed for passage, and then challenge China, France and Russia to veto the measure, Bush administration officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 20). Previously, the two countries had hoped for a 15-0 council vote on a new resolution that would authorize military action against Iraq, according to the New York Times. Some officials involved in the discussions over the new approach had argued that a resolution approved by a divided council would be seen as weak. Over the last few weeks, however, White House officials have decided that even a resolution passed by a slim majority would still have authority, the Times reported. U.S. and British officials worked yesterday on resolving their differences on the language of the draft resolution, according to the Times. It is likely to be introduced in the Security Council next week, possibly Monday, Bush administration officials said. U.S. and British officials also discussed how to persuade five of the council’s six uncommitted, nonpermanent members — Angola, Guinea, Cameroon, Mexico, Chile and Pakistan — to support the new resolution, diplomats said. Currently, only Bulgaria and Spain have openly supported the U.S.-British position, the Times reported. The United States and the United Kingdom, which support an attack on Iraq, and France and Germany, which oppose such action, have said they are not using economic pressure to sway the remaining nonpermanent members. The foreign aid programs provided to these countries, however, are an important factor in the discussions, diplomats said. The six countries “are really feeling the heat, and they’re going to be feeling even more heat in coming days,” said a Bush administration official. “On the other side, the French and Germans are turning up the pressure, too,” the official added (Weisman/Barringer, New York Times, Feb. 21). Blix Prepares Questions Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix plans Monday to give his advisory board a list of about 30 unresolved questions related to Iraq’s disarmament, according to Reuters. The list is part of preparations for a written report Blix is expected to submit to the Security Council on either Feb. 28 or March 3. A briefing, scheduled for March 7, will then follow that report, diplomats said. The entire list of remaining questions, almost 300 pages, has been compiled by the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission over the past several years, Reuters reported. The UNMOVIC advisory group is expected to receive a condensed version “in clusters” during meetings Monday and Tuesday (Evelyn Leopold, Reuters/MSNBC.com, Feb. 21). Iraq’s Illegal Missiles Meanwhile, Blix is expected to send a letter to Iraq today demanding that it destroy all of its al-Samoud 2 ballistic missiles, which an expert panel has recently determined violate U.N. mandates because of their range, diplomats and U.N. officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 20; Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 21). U.N. inspectors last night were preparing the order, which would cover 100 al-Samoud 2s, 50 of which have already been sent to the Iraqi army; and 380 illegally imported SA-2 engines that were meant for use in al-Samoud 2 production, the National Post reported. Iraq is also expected to be ordered to destroy casting chambers that could be used to produce engines for missiles capable of traveling farther than the U.N.-allowed range of 150 kilometers (Steven Edwards, National Post, Feb. 20). Blix is still deciding whether to set a formal deadline for Iraq’s destruction of the missiles, knowing that if Iraq refuses to do so, it could set off war, according to U.N. and U.S. officials. “The discussions today were on setting an artificial timeline of when destruction should begin and end,” a U.N. official said yesterday. During those discussions, Blix and other officials recognized that Iraq’s refusal to carry out the missile destruction order “would constitute the most direct and visible defiance of the United Nations since inspections resumed,” the U.N. official added. During the previous inspections regimes from 1991 to 1998, inspectors operated under different practices for the destruction of prohibited weapons and the equipment used to produce them, according to the Washington Post. “In the beginning, destruction was immediate or very rapid,” said former U.N. inspector Timothy McCarthy. “There were negotiations about disposition of equipment, but ultimately we destroyed whatever we wanted. At no time was there an item that we wished to destroy that we didn’t destroy,” he added (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Feb. 21). Iraq has claimed that the missiles flight-tested beyond U.N.-allowed ranges because they were not equipped at the time with warheads and guidance systems, which would have made them heavier. Baghdad wants U.N. technical experts to travel to Iraq to “to see that these missiles cannot exceed in any way 150 kilometers, and not to limit themselves to a written paper, a theoretical report,” Iraq’s U.N. Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri said (Lederer, Associated Press). U.S. Troops Ready to Invade The United States and the United Kingdom have amassed a military presence large enough in the Persian Gulf region to invade Iraq at any time, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday. “I would characterize it as ample,” Rumsfeld said of the U.S.-British military force, during an interview on PBS’s NewsHour With Jim Lehrer. “We are at a point where, if the president (George W. Bush) makes that decision (to attack), the Department of Defense is prepared and has the capabilities and the strategy to do that,” he said. So far, the United States and the United Kingdom have assembled more than 150,000 troops, dozens of warships and hundreds of aircraft, defense officials said. Six aircraft carriers, five U.S. and one British, are also expected to join the force soon, which could number more than 200,000 troops by the end of the month, according to U.S. officials. Rumsfeld, however, refused to provide more details on the exact makeup of the U.S.-British force. “I don’t do numbers,” he said (Reuters/Financial Times, Feb. 21). Inspections Inspectors yesterday conducted a second reconnaissance flight over Iraq using a U.S. U-2 aircraft — the second such flight this week, according to the Associated Press. During yesterday’s flight, the aircraft spent more than six hours over Iraq, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said (see GSN, Feb. 18). Iraq has also submitted to inspectors a list of people involved in the destruction of prohibited biological weapons and missile items, Buchanan said. Iraq had previously submitted a list of 83 people who were reported involved in the destruction of banned chemical weapons. “Those lists are being studied, and clearly might be potential names for interviews,” Buchanan said (Niko Price, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Feb. 21). Two French Mirage 4 surveillance aircraft left an airbase in southern France today and are expected to later arrive at an undisclosed location in the Persian Gulf region, according to Agence France-Presse. The aircraft, along with two refueling planes and a 70-member support team, were offered to inspectors as part of a French-German-Russian proposal to strengthen inspections (see GSN, Feb. 12; Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Feb. 21). Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said yesterday inspectors were being subjected to unwelcome, heavy pressure. “Inspectors are being subjected to very strong pressure in order to provoke their departure from Iraq, as occurred in 1998, or to present Security Council assessments which could be used as a pretext for the use of force against Iraq,” he said. While declining to identify the source of such pressure, Ivanov has previously accused “certain circles” in the United States of doing so (Reuters/Gulf News, Feb. 21). Inspectors visited at least 23 suspect Iraqi sites yesterday, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency press release. UNMOVIC missile teams placed additional tags on al-Samoud 2 missiles and warheads located in Baghdad. Missile experts also visited al-Qudis factory and al-Wazariya site. Inspectors also conducted an aerial survey via helicopter of several sites northwest of Baghdad, located up the Tigris River to the city of Tikrit. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited al-Aaela Factory for Sulfochemicals, where they conducted a rebaselining inspection, according to the IAEA release. UNMOVIC biological inspectors performed aerial inspections on a site west of Baghdad and a site southwest of the city. Biological inspectors also visited via helicopter an alcohol-producing factory south-southwest of the city of Amarah in southeastern Iraq. IAEA inspectors inspected flow-forming equipment at al-Karama facility and the Ghraib facility, the agency release said. IAEA inspectors also visited the Shakyli Stores at the Tuwaitha site, to inspect materials from Iraq’s past centrifuge program, and al-Eyz Company. Agency inspectors conducted radiation surveys at ElBasel Company-ElNahrawan, the Sabaa (Seven) Nissan General Company, an oil workers residential complex, the Department of Oil Truck Maintenance and an air defense unit east of Baghdad (IAEA release, Feb. 20). For further information, see:
From February 21, 2003 issue.U.S. Response: Former Air Force Technician Convicted of SpyingA former U.S. Air Force master sergeant was convicted yesterday of offering U.S. intelligence to Iraq and China but a jury could not decide whether he had tried to sell Baghdad documents on nuclear weapons, military satellites or U.S. war plans, the Associated Press reported. If the jurors decide that Brian Regan tried to sell those secrets to Iraq, he would be eligible for the death penalty. The jury acquitted Regan, a father of four from Maryland, of spying for Libya. Regan worked at the National Reconnaissance Office, which operates U.S. satellites. He was arrested in 2001 at Dulles International Airport in Virginia while boarding a flight for Switzerland, allegedly while carrying top-secret information. Prosecutors said that Regan offered to sell U.S. military secrets to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein for $13 million. Defense attorneys said that Regan fantasized about spying, but never followed through with the effort (Jonathan Salant, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Feb. 21). U.S. District Judge Gerald Lee sent the jury home for the weekend and said he hoped the trial would not end without resolving the Iraq charge. “They have not reached the conclusion that they are hung, but it sounds like they are struggling to reach unanimity in answering that question,” he said (Jerry Markon, Washington Post, Feb. 21).
From February 21, 2003 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 200 U.N. personnel, including about 150 inspectors, are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.
From February 20, 2003 issue.Iraq I: United States, United Kingdom Preparing Draft ResolutionThe United States and the United Kingdom are preparing to submit a draft resolution to the U.N. Security Council “in the next few working days” that would authorize military action against Iraq and set a deadline for the council to vote on it, U.S. and British officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 19). U.S. officials said there would be three key elements of the draft resolution: that Iraq is in “material breach” of its disarmament obligations, that it failed to comply with new inspections, placing it in further material breach and that U.N. members must move forward with the “serious consequences” noted in U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441, which established the current inspections regime. The draft resolution would also contain a deadline for Iraq’s compliance with inspections, to force the council into setting a limit to inspections, British U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock said. The tone and content of the draft resolution are still not “finally settled” and U.S. President George W. Bush plans to work with U.S. allies to create a resolution that would be acceptable to council members, the White House said yesterday. The goal is a “straightforward, simple resolution that enforces Resolution 1441,” White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said (Farley/Wright, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 20). To avoid a possible Security Council veto, the resolution is not expected to contain a specific call for military action against Iraq, sources said. The United States and the United Kingdom have claimed, however, that a finding that Iraq was in material breach of U.N. resolutions would allow for such an attack, according to the Washington Post. The two countries will probably not formally introduce the resolution to the Security Council until at least one more briefing by U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix, sources said Among Security Council members, including three of the permanent veto-wielding members, there still remains opposition to the use of force against Iraq, according to the Post. “We will do whatever is possible ... to maintain the equilibrium as it is now,” said a French official, whose country has led the resistance to the U.S. calls for military action. “There is a strong majority that is not yet ready to vote in favor” of a new resolution, the official added (Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, Feb. 20). Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin agreed via telephone yesterday that the inspections process should be continued indefinitely, adding support to France’s anti-war stance, according to the Los Angeles Times (Farley/Wright, Los Angeles Times). Representatives from the 10 nonpermanent council members expressed concerns over an anticipated U.S.-British effort to obtain their support for a new resolution. “Under such pressure, we might have to bend. We have a different kind of vulnerability” than the permanent council members, said an ambassador from a nonpermanent member country. “There is pressure on all of us to deliver a compromise that is not really a compromise,” the ambassador added (DeYoung, Washington Post). Several of the nonpermanent members have said they would abstain on a vote over a new resolution if the five permanent members could not agree on some sort of compromise. “We don’t have veto power,” said Angola’s U.N. Ambassador, Ismael Gaspar Martins. “But we do have a power. We do have a voice,” he added (Farley/Wright, Los Angeles Times). Open Security Council Session Ends With Mixed Conclusions The majority of delegates who spoke over the two-day debate Security Council debate on Iraq that ended yesterday clearly felt the inspection regime was working and that inspectors needed more time. On the other hand, the argument by the United States and United Kingdom that inspections have run their course is gaining ground, although most countries supporting this view stopped short of calling for the use of force. German Ambassador Gunter Pleuger, the council’s president for February, closed the debate yesterday, saying the session showed that “an overwhelming majority of delegations has made it clear that we are united in the goal of disarming Iraq in a peaceful way.” Celestino Migliore, the observer for the Holy See, told the council, “The vast majority of the international community is calling for a diplomatic resolution. … That call should not be ignored.” Canada seems to be moving toward the U.S.-British position that Iraq is not cooperating enough with the weapons inspectors and that a second resolution following up on Resolution 1441 is needed that would give Iraq a short time period to comply or face military action. Canadian Ambassador Paul Heinbecker said yesterday that more time and a strengthened inspection regime “could be useful, but only if Iraq decides to cooperate fully, actively and transparently, beginning now.” The council should set an “early deadline for Iraqi compliance,” he added. “Recent cooperation from Baghdad has come only in response to intense international pressure, including the deliberate and useful buildup of U.S. and U.K. military forces in the region. The job of the inspectors is to verify Iraq’s disarmament, not to search out weapons of mass destruction on their own,” said Heinbecker. Countries expressing at least some support for this position included Albania, Georgia, Macedonia, and Nicaragua. South Korean Ambassador Sun Joun-yung said Iraq’s “cooperation on substance has not been enough to resolve existing questions of disarmament. It is disturbing to note that many proscribed weapons and items still remain unaccounted for.” He added, “It is clear that Iraq is not yet in full compliance with the relevant Security Council resolutions, including Resolution 1441.” The majority of countries said the inspection route was producing results, even as they faulted Iraq for not fully cooperating with the inspectors. Migliore said that while the United Nations still has “a wealth of peaceful tools provided by international law, to resort to force would not be a just one.” He said the inspections regime “remains an effective path that could lead to a building of a consensus which … would make it almost impossible for any government to act otherwise, without risking international isolation.” War, he added, “is the very last option and in accordance with very strict conditions.” Deputy Swiss Ambassador Pierre Helg told the meeting, “The resort to force can only be envisaged after all peaceful means to find a solution to the crisis have been exhausted.” He said Switzerland supports strengthening the inspection system “and if that option fails, we recall that in any case the use of force must be authorized by a Security Council resolution.” Liechtenstein’s Ambassador Christian Wenaweser said, “We share the view that the use of force would need to be authorized by the council in a separate resolution and that the reports submitted by UNMOVIC [U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission] and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] do not lead to the conclusion that such a decision is warranted at this time.” Speaking for Malaysia, Zainuddin Yahya said, “We would urge Iraq not to lose this window of opportunity and to do what is right,” adding, “Iraq must continue to cooperate with the inspectors and refrain from giving any pretext to warmongers.” He said, “An attack against Iraq without any credible evidence to the international community of the imminent threat it poses is … illegal and unjustified.” Nedkhedehe Efiong Nedkhedehe of Nigeria said his government “calls on Iraq to comply with its obligations under the various U.N. resolutions including Resolution 1441 and cooperate with the U.N. inspection team so that the issue can be resolved peacefully. … Nigeria urges all concerned to make sustained efforts to avoid the use of force while ensuring the effective implementation of Resolution 1441.” At the conclusion of the debate, Iraqi Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri said, “Iraq is determined to cooperate both in substance and in process in order to cut off at the knees any allegations that Iraq has [weapons of mass destruction]. We are confident that no one will find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq because there are none” (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Feb.20) Iraq Still Not Fully Cooperating, Inspectors Say Iraqi officials are not, however, fully cooperating with inspections, according to U.N. weapons inspectors operating within Iraq. No Iraqi WMD scientists have agreed to take part in a private interview with inspect | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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