Iraq:  Baghdad Agrees “In Principle” to Destroy al-Samoud 2 Missiles

Iraq agreed “in principle” yesterday to destroy its stockpile of more than 120 al-Samoud 2 ballistic missiles, which experts have determined can fly farther than U.N.-mandated range limits (see GSN, Feb. 27; Tyler/Barringer, New York Times, Feb. 28).

Hans Blix, the chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, said this morning that if Iraq completes the missiles’ dismantlement, it will be "a very significant piece of real disarmament."

Yesterday, UNMOVIC received a letter from Iraq saying “in principle Iraq accepts the request for the destruction of the missiles.”  Blix said he asked in his letter for clarification as to what “in principle” means.  “They say the accept in principle.  It’s to start tomorrow, so maybe tomorrow or Sunday we’ll have more to say,” Blix said (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Feb. 28).

In a letter to chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix, Iraqi presidential adviser Gen. Amir Saadi asked to meet with a U.N. team to establish a timetable and technical criteria for the destruction of the missiles.  Blix’s deputy, Dimitri Perricos, arrived in Iraq yesterday to oversee the destruction of the missiles and related components (Maggie Farley, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 28).

U.N. inspectors are set to begin technical talks with Iraqi officials tomorrow, a U.N. spokesman said today. 

“There will be technical discussions between UNMOVIC [the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission] and Iraq on Saturday morning following which the destruction process could start,” U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said (Reuters/MSNBC.com, Feb. 28).

The United States has dismissed Iraq’s agreement to destroy the missiles as too little too late in complying with U.N. demands.

“They refuse to cooperate, don’t cooperate, drag it out, wait until someone finally nails them with a little piece of the whole puzzle,” U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said.

Besides having a range that exceeds U.N. mandates, the al-Samoud 2 missiles raise concerns that Iraq is attempting to develop a long-range missile, experts said.  Inspectors discovered that Iraq modified the diameter of the missiles to 760 millimeters, past the U.N.-allowed 600 millimeters.  The expanded missile barrel would allow Iraq to equip the missile with two side-by-side engines and extend its range, a U.N. official said.

The al-Samoud 2 also has the capability to be used as the second stage of a two-stage missile, launched from a Scud-type system, according to former U.N. inspector Timothy McCarthy.  Iraq had previously pursued such a missile design, and it could be used to conduct biological and chemical attacks, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The expanded diameter of the al-Samoud 2 is significant, McCarthy said, noting the missile’s similarity with the Soviet-era Styx missile.  “It ... has a radar seeker that can be changed into an altitude fuse which is required for dispersing chemical and biological weapons,” he said (Farley, Los Angeles Times).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Tested Rocket Booster Last Month

North Korea is believed to have tested a rocket booster at a Taepodong ballistic missile launch site last month, U.S. and Japanese sources said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 27).

The booster test was detected through evidence such as a change of color in the ground near the launch site, the sources said.  There is no sign, however, that North Korea plans to launch a full-scale Taepodong, because there are no signs that the missile’s engine and body have begun to be assembled, they added.

U.S. satellite images and other intelligence reports indicated that North Korea has covered the launch site, in the North Hamgyong Province, to prevent overhead surveillance, the sources said.  The United States and Japan plan to increase their monitoring of the site by deploying electronic surveillance aircraft, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun (Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 28).

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Iraq:  U.N. Official Says Baghdad Continues Al-Samoud Production

Iraq is continuing to produce al-Samoud 2 missiles despite a U.N. order to begin destroying them by the end of the week, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 25).

“Probably they have not received an order to stop, we don’t know,” said Hiro Ueki, U.N. spokesman in Baghdad.

Weapons inspectors have tracked all known al-Samoud 2 missiles but the continued production makes it difficult to calculate the total number of weapons in Iraq (Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, Feb. 26).

The United Nations said today that it still has not heard from Iraq whether it plans to comply with the missile destruction order.

“We have heard nothing from them so far,” a U.N. spokesman said (Reuters/ABCNews.com, Feb. 27).

Hussein Hints at Keeping al-Samouds

In his first interview with a U.S. journalist in 10 years, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein denied Monday that the al-Samoud missiles violate U.N. restrictions and said that he would not destroy them.

“Iraq is allowed to manufacture land-to-land rockets as per the resolution of the United Nations,” Hussein said.

“We have no missiles outside the specifications of the United Nations, and the inspection teams are here and they’re looking,” according to Hussein.  “So, the missiles that are against the resolution of the United Nations, these do not exist.  And they have been destroyed,” he added (CBSNews.com, Feb. 26).

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov said yesterday that if Baghdad refuses to destroy the missiles it could create “a very difficult situation.”

“If Iraq begins the elimination of its al-Samoud 2 missiles, it could be regarded as an example showing Iraq’s cooperation, on the one hand, and high effectiveness of the inspections, on the other,” Fedotov said.  “But if Iraq refuses to meet the UNMOVIC’s demand which is justified and accords with the U.N. Security Council resolutions, a very difficult situation will certainly develop,” he added (Vladimir Kikilo, ITAR-Tass, Feb. 26).

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North Korea:  Monday Test Was More Advanced Than First Reported, U.S. Officials Say

North Korea launched a new long-range cruise missile on Monday, not an older, short-range missile as some reports had indicated, U.S. intelligence officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 26).

Some initial reports identified the missile as a Soviet-era Styx short-range anti-ship missile.  The Pentagon, however, has identified the missile as a long-range variant of the Chinese HY-2 Silkworm missile, which North Korea first tested in 1997.

“It appears to be a Silkworm variant that they (North Koreans) modified to get a longer range,” a U.S. official said.

The new anti-ship missile is believed to have a range of about 100 miles, officials said.  They added that North Korea is expected to conduct additional tests in the coming days and that the launch site is being observed.

U.S. intelligence agencies are concerned that Monday’s missile test is part of renewed North Korean long-range missile testing, according to the Washington Times.  “That’s a concern,” a U.S. official said (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Feb. 27).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Notification Hints at More Missile Tests

Prior to Monday’s anti-ship missile test, North Korea gave notice that it would conduct three missile tests, possibly including one today, Reuters reported this morning, citing a British official (see GSN, Feb. 25; Martin Nesirky, Reuters, Feb. 26).

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell agreed that Pyongyang had given notice of the tests.

“We have known for several days that they had made a declaration, a notice to mariners, that such a test might be coming,” Powell said (Kate Dawson, Voice of America, Feb. 25).

South Korean media reported that second recent North Korean missile test had failed.

“I think there’s a pattern with North Korea of fairly hamfisted gestures and I think this [is] in keeping with that kind of profile,” said Bill Rammell, British Foreign Office minister for Northeast Asia.  “We were aware of that particular advance notice and I think the indication is that there were those two and there’s possibly another one today,” he said (Nesirky, Reuters).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Fires Anti-Ship Missile

North Korea fired a short-range, anti-ship missile yesterday into the Sea of Japan, officials said (see GSN, Feb. 13).  While the move appeared to be designed to disrupt the inauguration of South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, South Korean and U.S. officials played down the event.

The cruise missile flew for about 30 miles before sinking into the Sea of Japan, officials said.  They added that the missile did not appear to be a multi-stage system capable of traveling long distances.

The launch appeared to coincide with Roh’s inauguration, which is scheduled for today, according to the Washington Post.  U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi both traveled to Seoul for the event.

“This certainly is not a congratulatory message.  It is part of a detailed and calculated move to escalate this crisis,” said Paik Jin-hyun, a professor of international law at Seoul National University (Doug Struck, Washington Post, Feb. 25).

Powell described the missile launch as “fairly innocuous” and “not surprising.”  U.S. officials had known that such a launch would happen, he said (BBC News, Feb. 25).

“This is something that they test periodically,” a U.S. official said (Howard French, New York Times, Feb. 25).

Did the North End its Moratorium?

Experts disagreed on whether the test indicated North Korea was ending the self-imposed missile testing moratorium it has adhered to since 1998 (see GSN, Jan. 13).

“Strictly speaking, this is a violation of the missile moratorium,” said Yasuhiko Yoshida, a North Korean expert at Osaka University for Economics, but Seoul professor Paik said the test moratorium only applied to missiles with ranges greater than 180 miles.

There is also some confusion as to the exact type of missile North Korea launched yesterday, according to reports.  A White House official identified the missile as a Styx, an anti-ship missile first developed by the Soviet Union in the 1950s (Struck, Washington Post).  Japanese media, however, described the missile as a Chinese-developed Silkworm, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Jan. 22).

China today denied that it had exported to North Korea the missile used in yesterday’s launch, calling such reports “groundless.”

“Regardless of whether they allude to or directly say these missiles are China’s, made in China or made with Chinese technology, all such reports are extremely irresponsible and groundless,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said.  Noting China’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile export controls, Kong added, “In this area, China is a very responsible country.  Under these circumstances, we are firmly opposed to anyone spreading these groundless and irresponsible comments” (see GSN, Nov. 15, 2002; Agence France-Presse, Feb. 25).

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Iraq:  Hussein Indicates He Will Not Destroy Al-Samoud 2 Missiles

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein suggeseted in television interview excerpts shown yesterday that he will not destroy his stockpile of al-Samoud 2 missiles, which the United Nations has order him to do (see GSN, Feb. 24).

U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix has ordered Hussein to destroy the missiles, which have been determined to have flight ranges beyond U.N. mandates, by the end of the week.  In an interview with CBS, however, Hussein maintained that Iraq is “allowed” to keep the missiles.

“Iraq is allowed to prepare proper missiles and we are committed to that,” CBS quoted Hussein as saying.  When asked if the al-Samoud 2 missiles could be considered “proper,” he replied, “We do not have missiles that go beyond the proscribed range.”

Senior Iraqi officials said today that a decision has not been made on whether to destroy the missiles.  “It’s being studied,” Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said during a meeting with Egyptian officials.       

The United Nations has said that the destruction order cannot be negotiated, according to the Associated Press.  Blix said he was sending his chief deputy, Demetrius Perricos, to Baghdad to discuss the pace of the destruction.

“We have set the date for the commencement of the destruction of these missiles and we expect that to be respected,” Blix said.  “There will be a discussion about the pace of the destruction and Mr. Perricos, as my deputy, will be there for that purpose,” he added.      

U.S. President George W. Bush will not be satisfied even if Hussein does comply with the U.N. order, said White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, noting that stockpiles of chemical weapons were still missing.

“This is not about public relations.  This is about protecting the lives of the American people,” Fleischer said.  “If Saddam Hussein destroys the missiles that he said he never had ... you’ve got to wonder what other weapons does he have?” he added.

In his interview with CBS news anchor Dan Rather, Hussein challenged Bush to a debate, to be held via satellite linkup, the network said. 

“I am ready to conduct a direct dialogue — a debate — with your president,” CBS quoted Saddam as saying.  “I will say what I want and he will say what he wants,” he added (Associated Press/MSNBC.com, Feb. 25).

Missiles Part of Larger Effort, Analysts Say

Meanwhile, analysts have said that the al-Samoud 2 missile, while not posing a major threat by itself, could be part of efforts to develop a longer-range missile, which is why the United Nations has ordered its destruction.

“The real problem with al-Samoud isn’t the missile’s marginal violation on United Nations restrictions, but the fact it is part of a far larger program to acquire long-range methods of attacking neighbors with weapons of mass destruction,” said Loren Thompson, an analyst with the Lexington Institute.  “If Iraq were to fully realize its goals for that program, it would acquire a fearsome capability that would largely nullify the U.S. military advantage,” Thompson said.

In its current one-stage configuration, the al-Samoud 2 is not much of a threat, said former U.N. missile inspector Timothy McCarthy, adding that its purpose is to be used as a second-stage missile.  In that configuration, the missile would have the ability to hit targets in most of Turkey, all of Israel and in the Persian Gulf down to the Straits of Hormuz, said former Pentagon official Richard Speier.

It would take Iraq time, however, to modify the current al-Samoud 2 into a two-stage missile, analysts said.  “To go from here to there is not an insignificant battle,” McCarthy said (Guynn/Tamayo, Miami Herald, Feb. 25).

United States Attacks Missile Systems

Meanwhile, U.S. aircraft today attacked three Iraqi surface-to-surface missile systems located just south of the northern city of Mosul, the U.S. European Command said in a press statement.

“The coalition carried out today’s strike after Iraqi forces moved the mobile surface-to-surface missile systems above the 36th parallel — inside the northern no-fly zone — and in range to threaten coalition forces,” the statement said (Associated Press/USA Today, Feb. 25).

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Iraq:  Baghdad Considering U.N. Order to Destroy Missile Program

A top Iraqi official said today that Baghdad wants to negotiate the U.N. order to destroy its al-Samoud 2 missiles, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 21).

Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix delivered a letter Friday demanding that Iraq begin to destroy all its al-Samoud 2 missiles by March 1.  A panel of U.N. experts found that the missile’s range exceeds the 150-kilometer set by post-Gulf War U.N. resolutions.

“This is being studied very carefully and the channels are still open” between Iraq and the United Nations, Lt. Gen. Amer al-Saadi said Monday.  “We will come up with a decision quite soon,” he added.

“There is an open dialogue between us and (the weapons inspectors) and we hope that it will be settled,” al-Saadi said.

The top Iraqi liaison to the weapons inspectors said last night that the missiles, in their final forms, will not exceed the 150-kilometer limit.

“The missile was and is still being researched and developed and hasn’t reached its final stage.  The weights are not final,” Lt. Gen. Hossam Mohamed Amin said.  “We have suggested to (the inspectors) that they randomly choose any missile they want and check its range.  We are sure its range will be less,” he added.

Amin said Iraq was waiting for a response from chief U.N. inspector Hans Blix after Baghdad sent him a letter asking that he reconsider his order to destroy the missiles.  A U.N. official in Baghdad, however, said that Blix had answered by ordering the missiles destroyed by the end of this week.

“This is not negotiable,” the official said.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said that he expects Baghdad to comply with the order.

“If they refused to destroy the weapons, the Security Council will have to make a decision,” Annan said.  “I don’t see why they would not destroy them,” he added (Niko Price, Associated Press/MSNBC.com, Feb. 24).

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