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Iraq I: Security Council Members Unswayed Immediately After Powell BriefingU.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s detailed presentation yesterday of Washington’s charges that Iraq is failing to disarm and is cooperating with al-Qaeda terrorists did little to change minds on the U.N. Security Council about whether to authorize the use of force against Iraq. Countries that favor continuing weapons inspections used Powell’s evidence as proof that strengthened inspections, not war, was the best course (see GSN, Feb. 5). Powell’s 80-minute presentation charged that Iraq was concealing weapons of mass destruction such as developing biological weapon in mobile laboratories, obstructing inspections, intimidating scientists so that they would not allow themselves to be interviews by inspectors and allowing al-Qaeda to freely operate out of Baghdad and northern Iraq. He played intercepted conversions between Iraqi officials discussing hiding prohibited material and showed satellite photos he said showed Iraqi trucks removing banned weapons from buildings as inspectors arrived. Iraqi Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri said Powell’s allegations “are utterly unrelated to the truth. No new information was provided.” He said the presentation contained “incorrect allegations, unnamed sources, unknown sources. There are assumptions and presumptions which all fall in line with the American policy.” Speaking at the end of the council session, al-Douri said weapons of mass destruction “cannot be concealed. Inspectors have crisscrossed all of Iraq and found none of that.” Al-Douri said there is no proof the recordings are genuine or that mobile biological weapons laboratories exist. He said samples taken from sites “concluded the absence of any indication of proscribed chemical, biological or radiological agent.” Al-Douri quoted Hussein as saying, “We have no relationship with al-Qaeda.” “The clear goal behind holding this meeting, behind the presentation of [Powell] of false allegations before this council today is to sell the idea of war and aggression against my country Iraq, without any legal, moral or political justification,” he added. French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, the veto-holding council member most vocally opposed to military action, said the presentation “brings a new justification to the path chosen by the United Nations,” meaning inspections. “For now the inspections regime, favored by Resolution 1441, must be strengthened since it has not been explored to the end,” he said, referring to the resolution adopted unanimously by the council in November, that paved the way for the return of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency to Iraq. “Why go to war if there still exists an unused space in Resolution 1441?” he asked. Speaking to journalists after the council meeting, de Villepin said, “There is not absolute proof in these matters. There are indications, information, suspicion and we should all try to know more about it and that’s why we need the inspections.” De Villepin proposed to the council that the next step should be a stronger inspection regime. “With the choice between military intervention and an inspections regime that is inadequate for lack of cooperation on Iraq’s part, we must choose to strengthen decisively the means of inspection,” he said. He proposed doubling or tripling the number of inspectors, opening up more regional offices, establishing a new body to keep under surveillance sites already inspected, and increasing aerial surveillance of Iraq. “This is the demanding demarche that we must take together for a new stage. Its success presupposes, today as yesterday, that the international community remains united and mobilized,” de Villepin said. Germany, an elected member of the council and this month’s president, endorsed the French position. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said, “We need a tough regime of intensive inspections that can guarantee the full and lasting disarmament of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.” “Quite a few states suspect that Saddam Hussein’s regime is withholding relevant information and concealing military capabilities,” said Fischer. “This strong suspicion has to be dispelled beyond any doubt. This is exactly why Resolution 1441 provides for the instrument of inspections. ... The dangers of a military action and its consequences are plain to see. Precisely because of the effectiveness of the work of the inspectors, we must continue to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis.” Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said Powell’s evidence “convincingly indicates the fact that the activities of the international inspectors in Iraq must be continued. They alone can provide an answer to question of to what extent is Iraq complying with the demands of the Security Council.” On the other hand, Foreign Minister Jack Straw of the United Kingdom called the Powell report “a most powerful and authoritative case against the Iraqi regime.” He said, “Iraq is in further material breach. … Security Council members will share my deep sense of frustration that Iraq is choosing to spurn this final opportunity to achieve a peaceful outcome.” Resolution 1441 uses the term “material breach” as justification for the use of force if Iraq continues to hinder inspectors. “By 1441, we strengthened inspections massively,” Straw said. “The only missing ingredient was full Iraqi compliance.” Saddam Hussein, Straw said, “holds 1441 in the same contempt as all previous resolutions in respect of Iraq. ... Let us reflect on what that means — that Saddam is defying every one of us, every nation here represented. He questions our resolve and is gambling that we will lose our nerve rather than enforce our will.” “Time is now very short. If noncooperation continues, this council must meet its responsibilities,” Straw said. “This is a moment of choice for Saddam. But it is also a moment of choice for … the United Nations.” Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio supported Washington and London, saying Powell presented “compelling data ... that confirms that Iraq is deceiving the international community and is not cooperating” with inspectors and “is in violation of the obligations” under Resolution 1441. “More time doesn’t mean time for inspections, it means time for Saddam Hussein to disarm voluntarily,” she added. Most council members said they hoped the inspectors would find the new evidence presented by Powell useful and asked the United States to share it with the inspectors. “This information has to be immediately handed over for processing by UNMOVIC and the IAEA, including through direct onsite verification during the inspections in Iraq,” Ivanov said. “It is now decisive that the U.N. inspectors are also provided with the extensive material, in so far as this has not yet happened,” said Fischer. The suggestion that Washington has not provided the United Nations with everything it knows provoked an angry response from the United States. “Every actionable item had already been shared with them before today,” one U.S. official said. Secretary General Kofi Annan, who attended the meeting along with UNMOVIC head Hans Blix and IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, said after the session, “I still believe that war is not inevitable but a lot depends on President Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi leadership. I think the message today has been clear -- everyone wants Iraq to be proactive in cooperating with the inspectors and fulfill the demands of the international community. I think if they do that, we can avoid a war.” Annan also said that contrary to suggestions by some governments, he would not go to Baghdad to negotiate with the Iraqis. “The message that has been given to Iraq is very clear” that the Security Council and the Arab League have both said Iraq must cooperate fully with the inspectors, Annan said. “If I were to go I would not carry a different message. I would be carrying the same message and they should listen to Drs. Blix and ElBaradei, and I hope they do so” (Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Feb. 6). Inspections Continuing Meanwhile, U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq visited at least seven suspect sites today. Inspectors visited a military engineering academy, a brewery, an Iraqi army storage depot and the Iraqi water and sewage authorities, according to the Associated Press. Inspectors also visited the laboratories of a health care complex in Baghdad and a storage facility at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center (Hamza Hendawi, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, Feb. 6). Yesterday, inspectors visited at least 15 sites within Iraq, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency press release. Inspectors visited the Heti Readymade Concrete facility near Baghdad and the Sinjar Cement Factory near the northern city of Mosul. Experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission inspected the al-Riyadh stores. UNMOVIC missile inspectors visited al-Fatah to verify Iraq’s declaration of the site and to establish a comprehensive monitoring system. An IAEA inspection team visited the Ashakyli Stores south of Baghdad, the agency release said. A second IAEA team held meetings at the Iraqi National Monitoring Directorate (IAEA release, Feb. 5). For further information, see:
From February 6, 2003 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.
From February 6, 2003 issue.United States: Pentagon Certifies Three Civil Support TeamsThe U.S. Defense Department yesterday said it has certified the Michigan, Tennessee and West Virginia WMD civil support teams, bringing the number of certified teams to 30 (see GSN, May 1, 2002). The teams, part of states’ National Guard units, are ready to respond in the event of a domestic incident involving weapons of mass destruction, the Pentagon said (see GSN, Feb. 8, 2002). The department has so far certified three out of the five civil support teams authorized in the fiscal 2001 National Defense Appropriations Act (U.S. Defense Department release, Feb. 5).
From February 5, 2003 issue.Iraq I: Powell Lays Out U.S. Intelligence on Iraqi “Denial and Deception”By Bryan Bender Powell made public intercepted communications between Iraqi officials, sequences of satellite photos depicting equipment being moved in advance of U.N. inspections, and information from multiple defectors pointing to mobile biological weapons labs. Since U.N. weapons inspections resumed in Iraq in November — following unanimous passage of Security Council Resolution 1441 calling on Iraq to declare its prohibited weapons of mass destruction programs — Iraqi officials have done “all they possibly can to ensure inspectors succeed in finding absolutely nothing,” Powell told the 15 members of the council. Powell’s presentation, titled “Denial and Deception,” covered the gamut of charges against Iraq, including efforts to conceal chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and development programs, as well as prohibited missile activities. In one accusation, Powell replayed several intercepted radio transmissions that allegedly record some Iraqi officials ordering others to sanitize weapons facilities and remove suspect materials prior to U.N. weapons inspections. One intercept includes officials discussing the need to conceal what Powell termed a “modified vehicle,” while another highlights the need to cover up evidence of what he called “forbidden ammo.” Two Iraqi commanders in the 2nd Republican Guard Corps — identified by Powell as a colonel and a captain — discuss instructions to remove “nerve agents.” In addition, Powell presented satellite images taken Nov. 10 showing what U.S. analysts say were four active chemical weapons bunkers in Taji. Decontamination trucks positioned close to the four sites were described as the best evidence that weapons were being kept there. The same facilities were “clean when the U.N. got there” Dec. 22, Powell said. In other images, cargo trucks carrying what are believed to be missile components are seen leaving a facility at al-Fatah Nov. 10, two days before inspectors arrived in the country. Another truck was also shown leaving a vaccine and serum facility days later. Powell said four defectors have told U.S. intelligence officials Iraq has been utilizing mobile biological weapons production and research units, the so-called “Winnebagos of Death.” These mobile laboratories, believed to have the ability to make “dry” agents that pose the most risk to humans, are thought to house anthrax, botulinum toxin and other deadly agents, Powell said. In one month these laboratories could manufacture enough material to “kill thousands,” Powell said. “There are 18 trucks that we know of,” Powell said. “There may be more.” As for chemical weapons production, Powell said Iraq has the ability to make up to 500 tons of chemical agents, many of them in so-called dual-use facilities that also manufacture civilian products. These countless facilities can go “from clandestine to commercial and then back again,” Powell said, “on a dime.” Powell showed photographs of another suspected chemical weapons facility, al-Musayyib, taken last May, similarly showing a series of bunkers and a nearby contamination truck. By July, the entire sprawling base appears to have been bulldozed and the topsoil replaced, Powell said. Powell also said that despite no evidence found by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, Iraq continues to pursue nuclear weapons. Providing more detail, he repeated the earlier U.S. assertion that Iraq has sought aluminum tubes, with “refined specifications,” for possible use in enriching uranium. Powell said Iraq sought these materials in at least 11 countries (see GSN, Jan. 24). As for systems to deliver outlawed weapons, Powell presented images that depicted what he said was a flight test of a MiG-21 outfitted with spray tanks dispersing simulated biological agents. He also revealed intelligence, including a satellite picture of a test stand, about ongoing development of a medium-range, liquid-fueled missile capable of traveling 1,200 kilometers. That is eight times farther than Iraqi missiles are permitted under U.N. resolutions. Powell said this missile could hit targets as far away as Russia, adding that the program “was left out” of Iraq’s 12,000-page weapons declaration provided to the United Nations Dec. 7. Powell said U.S. intelligence believes a special committee that reports directly to Saddam Hussein — which includes his son Qusay and General Amir al-Saudi, the chief Iraqi liaison to the U.N. inspections teams — is responsible for covering up Iraq’s illegal weapons programs. “Iraq is now in further material breach” of Resolution 1441, Powell said. If it does not act swiftly and authoritatively, the United Nations is “in danger of irrelevance.” He closed by outlining a variety of Iraq’s purported links with terrorist groups, including members of Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network. Whether Powell’s presentation was effective remains to be seen, but one expert said Washington’s job of convincing the international body of the need to take military action against Saddam Hussein is incomplete. “Powell’s presentation had to do two things,” said Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “First it had to demonstrate that the Iraqis were in material breach of Resolution 1441, and he succeeded. It was a home run. But that case existed before the speech. “But to convince countries like France and Germany and the broader public that military action is needed, he needed to demonstrate conclusively that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons,” he said. “And on that I think he failed. He makes a circumstantial case, but if he were in an American court of law, I don’t think he could get an indictment, let alone a conviction.”
From February 5, 2003 issue.Iraq II: No WMD “Whatsoever,” Hussein SaysIraq neither possesses weapons of mass destruction nor has links to suspected terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terrorist organization, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein said in an interview broadcast yesterday by British Channel 4 (see related GSN story, today). “There is only one truth and therefore I tell you as I have said on many occasions before that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction whatsoever,” Hussein told British Labor Party politician Tony Benn, who traveled to Baghdad to meet with the Iraqi leader. “We challenge anyone who claims that we have to bring forward any evidence and present it to public opinion,” Hussein said. Hussein also denied that Iraq had any connections to al-Qaeda, which the United States has repeatedly claimed. “If we had a relationship with al-Qaeda, and we believed in that relationship, we wouldn’t be ashamed to admit it,” Hussein said. “Therefore I would like to tell you directly and also through you to anyone who is interested to know that we have no relationship with al-Qaeda,” he added. Iraq has been cooperating with U.N. inspectors and working to fulfill U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441, which established the current inspections regime, Hussein said. While there have been instances where Iraqis have objected to the conduct of inspectors, this does not amount to noncompliance, as the United States has alleged, he said. “When Iraq objects to the conduct of those implementing the Security Council resolutions, that doesn’t mean that Iraq wishes to push things to confrontation. Iraq has no interest in war. No Iraqi official or ordinary citizen has expressed a wish to go to war,” Hussein said. “The question should be directed at the other side. Are they looking for a pretext so they could justify war against Iraq?” he asked. Iraq has no wish to hinder inspectors in carrying out their mission, who will only confirm that it does not possess weapons of mass destruction, Hussein said. “It is in our interest to facilitate their mission to find the truth,” he said. Hussein warned, however, that if the United States and its allies were to attack, Iraqi people are prepared to defend themselves and their country. “The Iraqis don’t wish war but if war is imposed upon them — if they are attacked and insulted — they will defend themselves,” Hussein said. “They will defend their country, their sovereignty and their security,” he added (Channel 4, Feb. 4). Inspections Meanwhile, U.N. weapons inspectors have visited at least nine suspect Iraqi sites today, according to Reuters. Biological experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited several sites, including al-Nu’man, a state-operated irrigation company south of Baghdad; a food research center in Baghdad; a Baghdad University laser research center; and a dairy factory in Abu Ghraib north of Baghdad. UNMOVIC missile teams visited the al-Mutasim missile plant, about 55 miles west of Baghdad; and a missile factory that belongs to the al-Karamah facility, Reuters reported. Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency inspected warehouses located at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center — the key site in Iraq’s former nuclear weapons program. They also visited the site of the Osirak nuclear reactor, which Israel destroyed in an airstrike in 1981. Inspectors also visited an undisclosed site north of Baghdad, Iraqi officials said (Hassan Hafidh, Reuters, Feb. 5). Yesterday, inspectors visited at least 14 suspect Iraqi sites, according to an IAEA press release. UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited the State Establishment for Heavy Engineering Enterprises plant in Doura. Inspectors also visited a farm, a helicopter support facility and the al-Taji Ammunition Department, all located north of Baghdad. While at the ammunition depot, inspectors found an empty Sakr-18 chemical warhead, similar to those discovered last month, the IAEA release said. The warhead was tagged and secured. Inspectors based in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul visited the Mosul Sugar and Yeast Factories to determine the present status of the site. IAEA inspectors visited the al-Mamoun plant of the al-Qa Qaa State Establishment south of Baghdad (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Feb. 4). For further information, see:
From February 5, 2003 issue.Bulgarian Response: Sofia Prepares WMD Response UnitBulgaria has started to form a 150-member military unit to specialize in responding to chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, according to Gen. Nikola Kolev, the chief of the General Staff of the Bulgarian military (see GSN, Nov. 19, 2002). More than 400 volunteers have signed up to join the unit and a commission is selecting the successful candidates, Kolev said Saturday. “The General Staff command has determined that, should all possible peaceful means be exhausted, resort to military force is highly probably for resolving the Iraq crisis. We do not want a political decision on Bulgarian participation, if such a decision is made, to find the army unprepared, which is why we requested permission to go ahead with the formation of such contingent,” Kolev said. The unit would also be available to respond to a terrorist attack using weapons of mass destruction in Bulgaria, he added (Sofia BTA, Feb. 1 in FBIS-EEU, Feb. 3).
From February 5, 2003 issue.Iraq III: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27. More than 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ reported activities.
From February 4, 2003 issue.Iraq I: U.S. Readies Final Pitch for U.N. Support on IraqBy Bryan Bender While the White House is expressing new confidence that convincing intelligence information can persuade the council to authorize military force, many experts doubt the Bush administration will make sufficient headway this week to change minds and swing international support in its favor. The best hope of a U.N. coalition in Iraq, they contend, will lie in the forthcoming assessments by U.N. weapons inspectors, who are continuing their search operations in Iraq despite what they describe as a continued lack of adequate cooperation. Their next update to the Security Council is scheduled for Feb. 14. Meanwhile, the chief inspectors, Hans Blix of the U.N. Monitoring and Verification Commission, and International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohammed ElBaradei, are to return to Iraq Saturday at Baghdad’s invitation to seek greater Iraqi cooperation — including Baghdad’s permission for U-2 spy missions over Iraq and one-on-one interviews with Iraqi weapons scientists. “We both agree that time is running out,” ElBaradei said yesterday. “But we both agree we would like to exhaust the inspection process,” he added However, Powell’s address to the Security Council tomorrow could still prove to be a critical turning point, marking the beginning of the end of U.S. diplomatic maneuvering and the opening bell for a U.S.-led war, with or without international backing. The primary target of Powell’s presentation will be France, which remains opposed to military action and which holds a veto in the Security Council that could defeat any proposed new war resolution. British Prime Minister Tony Blair failed earlier today to persuade France to join a U.S.-led coalition ready to take quick military action against Iraq, according to the Associated Press. Despite intense pressure by Blair, French President Jacques Chirac said he remained steadfastly opposed to war against Baghdad without giving U.N. weapons inspectors as much time they need to do their work, according to the report. U.S. and British officials have said inspectors might have as many as six more weeks to try and make progress, but they would not support any extended timetable. On the other hand, permanent Security Council member Russia, which had previously expressed opposition to war in Iraq, appears to be softening its position. Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday a second resolution might be required if weapon inspectors remain dissatisfied with Iraq’s cooperation. Making the Case According to U.S. officials, Powell is expected to present three types of intelligence information pointing to continued Iraqi intransigence in the face of U.N. Resolution 1441, calling on Iraq to surrender its suspected nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs. The first will be communications intercepts between the senior Iraqi leadership and officials involved in WMD programs, according to U.S. officials, highlighting what they have done in recent weeks to circumvent the U.N. inspection teams. Also to be included in the package will be commercial satellite imagery — as opposed to U.S. government-owned spy satellite photos — showing Iraqi personnel “cleaning up” sites ahead of U.N. inspectors. Photographs of mobile biological weapons labs, the so-called “Winnebagos of Death” that have been of considerable concern for U.S. intelligence officials, might also be included, officials said. Other intelligence will include shipping manifests of Iraqi equipment imports that U.S. intelligence officials believe can be used to develop weapons of mass destruction. “We will, in sum, offer a straightforward, sober and compelling demonstration that [Iraqi President] Saddam [Hussein] is concealing the evidence of his weapons of mass destruction, while preserving the weapons themselves,” Powell wrote in Monday’s Wall Street Journal. However, Richard Haass, the State Department director of policy planning, cautioned that there would be no so-called smoking gun in Powell’s presentation. “I don’t want to raise expectations,” he told the Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram yesterday. “We will not present pictures of 30,000 stockpiled warheads which can each carry chemical weapons, if that is what you mean by evidence.” Indeed, the last-ditch effort to indict Hussein before the world body is an “unbelievable gamble” on Powell’s part, according to a former CIA official. “If Powell presents good evidence, he’ll hit the jackpot and dozens of countries will support the U.S.,” said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst. “But if he lays a goose egg because the evidence isn’t very convincing, it will pull the rug out from under the administration and they’ll see support rapidly drain away, making it very hard to pull together a coalition for war,” Pollack said. Iraq is already trying to discredit tomorrow’s U.S. intelligence briefing. “I think they will be fabricated,” said Gen. Hossam Mohammed Amin, head of Iraq’s weapons monitoring directorate and the chief liaison with the U.N. weapons inspectors. “There will be space photos, aerial photos, of some vehicles that could be interpreted in different ways just to create suspicion around the Iraqi declaration. They will not reveal real evidences because we have nothing. We have no weapons of mass destruction.” Seeking a Resolution Whether Powell can convince the Security Council tomorrow or not, in recent days Washington has decided to at least try to get another resolution passed, even though it has said it does not need one and that the more than a dozen resolutions calling on Iraq to disarm over the last decade provide enough justification. “Should the United Nations decide to pass a second resolution, it will be welcomed if it is another signal that we’re intent upon disarming Saddam Hussein,” Bush said Friday after meetings with Blair in Washington. However, he stressed, “[Resolution] 1441 gives us the authority to move without a second resolution.” At Blair’s urging, Washington says it will begin lobbying for a second resolution authorizing military force against Iraq. So far, however, little progress has been made, according to Bush administration officials. Another proposal for a new resolution circulating at U.N. headquarters, according to U.S. and international sources, would label Iraq’s 12,000-page weapons declaration as incomplete and inaccurate and declare that Baghdad is not cooperating fully with inspectors — effectively finding Iraq in material breach of the Resolution 1441. Former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, who last year urged the White House to seek U.N. support before acting alone, said one last attempt to bring along the U.N. is necessary. Washington “should be prepared to try for a vote supporting such action if we believe we are close to having the nine affirmative votes needed, unless we think one of the other three permanent members (France, Russia, or China) would use its veto — something I personally don’t think would occur if there are nine votes in favor,” he wrote in today’s Wall Street Journal. “The case for military action is … compelling,” he wrote. “It cannot be deferred indefinitely as Iraq continues to play its cat-and-mouse game with U.N. inspectors. Nor can it be held hostage to lowest common denominator consensus in the Security Council,” according to Baker, who rallied the U.N. coalitio | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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