Iran:  IAEA Examines Uranium Enrichment Capability

The International Atomic Energy Agency yesterday began processing detailed information on Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility to better understand its current capabilities and past activities, the Financial Times reported (see GSN, March 10).

News accounts yesterday reported that Iran’s uranium enrichment capability is much more advanced than previously thought.

“We are expecting to receive design details of the plant,” the IAEA said yesterday.  “We have gathered a lot of information and we are analyzing it,” the organization added.

IAEA officials also plan to investigate allegations that Iran has another, undeclared uranium enrichment facility, according to the Times.

Tehran has said that it has not enriched uranium during centrifuge testing, but that assertion is most likely untrue, according to David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington nonproliferation research organization.

U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of State Colin Powell recently criticized IAEA efforts to monitor nuclear weapons development in the region.  U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said that Washington has been urging Russia and Pakistan to avoid helping Iran develop its alleged nuclear weapons effort.  Boucher said that Pakistan “takes this responsibility seriously” (Dinmore/Cookson, Financial Times, March 11).

Washington Alleges Nuclear Weapons

Iranian officials said again that Tehran is developing its nuclear facilities for civilian energy needs, but Washington challenged those claims.  U.S. officials have said Iran’s extensive gas and oil resources undermine any suggestion of a need to develop domestic nuclear energy.

“We completely reject Iran’s claim that it is doing so for peaceful purposes,” said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer (Associated Press/Boston Globe, March 11).

Iran, however, said nuclear power would allow it to sell more oil.

“If we develop our nuclear power sector, we will be able to increase our oil exports and, consequently, earn more,” said Kamal Kharrazi, the Iranian foreign minister (Interfax news agency/BBC Monitoring, March 11).

Iranian officials said Washington is souring Tehran’s relationship with the IAEA.

“Iran’s nuclear program is in accordance with realities and in our opinion the United States tries to thwart the constructive cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency,” said Hamid Reza Asefi, a Foreign Ministry spokesman (Modher Amin, United Press International, March 10).

Bushehr Fuel to Arrive in May

Russia is scheduled to deliver 80 metric tons of uranium in May to power Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power reactor, set to begin operating in the second half of next year, according to Assadollah Saburi, deputy head of Iran’s national atomic agency.

“The reactor and peripheral equipment have been installed and the first phase of the plant is to be completed in the next year,” he said today.  “At the moment more than 1,000 technicians are working at the site,” he added (Agence France-Presse, March 11).

Russia supported Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear power.

“Establishing a balance between energy sources is the sovereign right of any country,” said Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, visiting Tehran.

“Nevertheless, it was important for us to obtain first-hand information about plans for the development of the nuclear power sector for peaceful purposes,” he added (Interfax news agency/BBC Monitoring, March 11).

Saburi said that Tehran is not planning to sign an additional protocol to Iran’s IAEA safeguards agreement (see GSN, Feb. 24).  The protocol would place “new restrictions” on Iran’s nuclear efforts, which are already facing “all sorts of obstacles,” he said (Agence France-Presse, March 11).

Nuclear Weapons to Counter Israel

Meanwhile, Iranian officials have asserted that Iran has the right to develop nuclear weapons to counter Israel, the Washington Post reported today.

“Are nuclear weapons bad?” asked Amir Mohebian, an adviser to Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  “Why don’t you make the same protest against Israel?” he added.

Members of the reformist party that controls Iran’s Parliament shared Mohebian’s sentiment.

“It’s basically a matter of equilibrium,” said Mostafa Tajzadeh, a leading theorist in the reformist party.  “On the one hand Israel says, ‘If I don’t have it, I don’t have security.’  And we say, ‘As long as Israel has it, we don’t have security.’  We believe the way to deal with Israel’s expansionism is to democratize the region,” he added.

“But while things are the way they are, public opinion in Muslim countries, and in Iran, is not going to be against having nuclear weapons,” Tajzadeh said (Karl Vick, Washington Post, March 11).

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North Korea:  China, Japan Agree to Seek “International Approach,” Fleischer Says

In discussions with U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday, Chinese and Japanese leaders “agreed to continue working for an international approach” to the North Korean nuclear crisis, according to White House spokesman Ari Fleischer (see GSN, March 7; Olivier Knox, Agence France-Presse, March 10).

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Washington would probably meet with Pyongyang in the future, but only in a multilateral setting.

“I think eventually we will be talking to North Korea, but we’re not going to simply fall into what I believe is a bad practice of saying the only way you can talk to us is directly,” Powell said Sunday.

“We want a solution that involves all the countries in the region, and I hope North Korea understands that it is also in their interests to have all the nations in the region part of this dialogue,” he added (Agence France-Presse/South Africa Business Day, March 11).

Japanese officials, meanwhile, have begun discussing sanctions against North Korea.

“Would it be possible to generate adequate results if we were to go ahead with sanctions alone?”  Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda asked.  “If sanctions are implemented, it would have to be done with international cooperation.  A decision to impose sanctions would depend on what North Korea does,” Fukuda added.

Senior Japanese Foreign Ministry officials have said that if North Korea launches a ballistic missile or begins to reprocess nuclear fuel, economic sanctions must be discussed in earnest (Asahi Shimbun, March 11).

Japan is Pyongyang’s largest market, Associated Press reports.

North Korea sent $226 million in exports to Japan in 2001, according to the South Korea-based Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency.  South Korea imported $176 million in goods and China received $167 million worth of imports, AP reported.

Pyongyang also receives millions of dollars from Korean expatriates in Japan, according to the article.

About 200,000 descendents of Korean workers live in Japan, and many others have returned to North Korea in recent decades as part of a repatriation campaign.

“Some 93,000 people went to the North in the repatriation movement.  It is as though they are all being held hostage,” said Katsuei Hirasawa, a lawmaker from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.  Hirasawa estimated that Koreans in Japan annually send $85 million to North Korea.

If sanctions are imposed and the money stops, “North Korea will collapse,” he said (Audrey McAvoy, Associated Press/Washington Times, March 11).

Meanwhile, Washington has formally protested North Korea’s intercept of a U.S. spy plan earlier this month (see GSN, March 4).

“We reiterated our call on the North Koreans to adhere to international standards of behavior and avoid further provocative or escalatory steps,” U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, March 11).

North Korean planes were trying to force the U.S. Air Force surveillance aircraft to land in an attempt to take the crew hostage, a senior U.S. defense official said last week.

A North Korean pilot, using hand gestures, indicated the U.S. plane should follow, the New York Times reported.

“Clearly, it appears their intention was to divert the aircraft to North Korea, and take it hostage,” the official said.  Military officials said the North Korean planes had not “locked on” with their radar, as had previously been reported (Eric Schmitt, New York Times, March 8).

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United States I:  Energy Department Requests $8.8 Billion for NNSA

The U.S. Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration has requested almost $9 billion for fiscal 2004, which would go toward maintaining the U.S. nuclear arsenal, funding nuclear nonproliferation programs and maintaining security at department facilities, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham told a House Appropriations subcommittee last week (see GSN, March 7).

Energy has requested $8.8 billion for the NNSA for next fiscal year, a $925 million increase from fiscal 2003, Abraham told the House Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee.  Out of that funding, $6.4 billion would go toward nuclear weapons activities; $1.3 billion to nuclear nonproliferation efforts; $768 million to help fund naval nuclear reactor upgrades and $348 million for agency administrative costs, Abraham said.

Energy’s $6.4 billion request for NNSA weapons activities would help maintain and improve the U.S. nuclear weapons infrastructure, as well as fund safeguards and security for agency sites, Abraham said.  The request includes:

*         $532 million for research and development and production infrastructure investments, a 9 percent increase from fiscal 2003;

*         $84 million to help rebuild a nuclear weapons trigger, or “pit,” production capability (see GSN, Sept. 20, 2002);

*         $751 million to help develop computing platforms and simulation capabilities for nuclear testing (see GSN, Oct. 22, 2002);

*         about $1 billion to operate NNSA facilities, including national laboratories and nuclear weapons production plants;

*         $273 million to help fund eight new construction projects and 12 ongoing construction projects; and

*         $1.2 billion for safeguards and security at NNSA sites, an increase of almost $180 million from fiscal 2003.  Of this, $586 million would go toward security at NNSA weapons sites, $357 million to securing Cold War-era materials at environmental cleanup sites, $238 million to departmentwide security and $48.1 million to security at department scientific research facilities.

The $1.3 billion funding request for nuclear nonproliferation activities is a 30 percent increase from fiscal 2003, Abraham said (see GSN, Jan. 30).  The increase would help fund the construction of a U.S. mixed-oxide fuel production facility and help Russia construct its own MOX plant, he said (see GSN, Dec. 6, 2002). 

The request “reflects the administration’s full commitment to reducing the global nuclear danger,” Abraham said.  It includes:

*         $657 million for reducing fissile material stockpiles;

*         $30 million to help purchase Russian highly enriched uranium above the amounts set in the U.S.-Russia “Megatons to Megawatts” program, under which the United States purchases Russian HEU for use as fuel in nuclear power plants (see GSN, Feb. 12);

*         $40 million to help prevent the migration of Russia nuclear weapons expertise;

*         $50 million to help provide Russia with replacement power production capacity to cease the production of weapon-grade plutonium;

*         $204 million to develop new proliferation detection technologies;

*         $226 million for International Nuclear Materials Protection and Cooperation program, which helps improve the security of Russian weapon-grade materials; and

*         $102 million to help improve export controls (Mike Nartker, GSN, March 11).

During the hearing, subcommittee members called on Abraham to begin seeking competitive bids on operating contracts for the department’s national laboratories, according to Energy Daily (see GSN, Feb. 28).

“I’ll tell you right up front there is no way you can convince me that not competing these jobs for more than 60 years is in the best interest of taxpayers,” subcommittee Chairman David Hobson (R-Ohio) said.

The University of California, which operates Los Alamos, has come under heavy criticism for theft and fraud allegations at the site.  Abraham told the committee that the department was prepared to “take the appropriate action” to improve conditions, which could mean ending the university’s operating contract before it expires in 2005.  He said he was expecting a report on the issue from senior Energy officials by the end of April.

Some subcommittee members, however, said there was little reason for Abraham to wait until then.  “I think we have cause for the contract to be canceled sooner rather than later,” Representative Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.) said (Jeff Beattie, Energy Daily, March 6).

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United States II:  NNSA Seeks to Improve Nuclear Material Storage At Weapons Plants

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has begun a program to improve the management and disposal of “inactive” nuclear materials at U.S. nuclear weapons facilities, Energy Daily reported today (see GSN, Jan. 28).  Inactive materials include weapon-grade uranium and plutonium stocks that are not currently needed for use in weapons.

In a Jan. 31 report to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, the NNSA said there were concerns over whether nuclear weapons plants were safely storing inactive nuclear materials.  The agency’s report also noted concerns that quantities of such materials were building up at plants that were never meant to serve as long-term storage sites, such as Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, according to Energy Daily.

In its report, the NNSA indicated an interest in the decisions on plutonium disposal made by the Energy Department while cleaning the Rocky Flats former nuclear weapons plant in Colorado, Energy Daily reported (see GSN, June 13, 2002).  The agency said it was examining using similar methods to reduce nuclear material stockpiles at its sites, as well as allowing some of the materials to be reused by Energy or private companies (George Lobsenz, Energy Daily, March 11).

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International Response:  Iraq Crisis Derails Central Asian Treaty Talks

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A meeting planned for this month between the five declared nuclear weapons states and five Central Asian states on a treaty establishing a nuclear weapon-free zone in Central Asia has been postponed, a U.N. official told GSN yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 15).

The meeting, which was to discuss written proposals submitted by the nuclear states to modify the treaty’s text, has been delayed because of the Iraq situation, said Stefano Tomat of the U.N. Disarmament Affairs Department.  He indicated that the meeting might be rescheduled for the end of April.

This month’s planned meeting was meant to give the Central Asian states an opportunity to respond the nuclear weapons states’ proposals, which were submitted at a meeting held in New York in December of last year.  Of the five declared states, China and Russia have openly offered support for the treaty and have recommended few changes to its text, U.N. Undersecretary General for Disarmament Affairs Jayantha Dhanapala said in January. 

The three Western nuclear powers — France, the United Kingdom and the United States — have expressed concerns with several of the treaty’s provisions, including those related to the transit of nuclear weapons through the zone, the possible further expansion of the zone, and the relationship between the treaty and other regional agreements.

The five Central Asian states involved in the zone’s creation — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — had planned to sign the treaty next month.

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Iran:  Tehran May Have Violated Nonproliferation Treaty, Reports Say

Iran’s nuclear facilities are much more advanced than previously thought, and some activities conducted there may have violated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty by testing uranium hexafluoride gas in some of its centrifuges, Time reported today (see GSN, March 5).

Tehran announced last week that it plans to activate a uranium-conversion facility, with IAEA safeguards in place, Time reported.

“If Iran were found to have an operating centrifuge, it would be a direct violation (of the Nonproliferation Treaty) and is something that would need immediately to be referred to the United Nations Security Council for action,” said Jon Wolfsthal of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Diplomatic officials said recently that the uranium enrichment facility near Natanz is “extremely advanced” and includes “hundreds” of centrifuges (Massimo Calabresi, Time, March 17).

The Natanz facility contains 160 recently built centrifuges, the Washington Post reported.  Iran is in the process of building 1,000 more centrifuges, with an end goal of 5,000, according to the Post.

The effort is due to be completed in 2005, the Post reported.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon.

“Here we suddenly discover that Iran is much further along, with a far more robust nuclear weapons development program than anyone said it had,” Powell said on CNN’s Late Edition.  “It shows you how a determined nation that has the intent to develop a nuclear weapon can keep that development process secret from inspectors and outsiders, if they really are determined to do it,” he added.

Iran “is a country going full-bore on all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle,” said an administration official (Warrick/Kessler, Washington Post, March 10).

Israel is concerned about the development, Time reported.  In 1981, Israeli forces attacked and destroyed an Iraqi nuclear plant at Osirak.

“It’s a huge concern,” said an Israeli official.  “Iran is a regime that denies Israel’s right to exist in any borders and is a principal sponsor of Hezbollah.  If that regime were able to achieve a nuclear potential, it would be extremely dangerous,” the official added.

Israel is not prepared to rule out the “Osirak option” the official said, but “would prefer that this issue be solved in other ways” (Calabresi, Time).

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United States:  Los Alamos Plutonium Trigger Close to Completion

The Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico is set to complete work on a plutonium trigger, or “pit,” for the W-88 nuclear warhead by late spring, a senior U.S. Energy Department official told a House Armed Services subcommittee last week (see GSN, Feb. 6).

The W-88 pit will be the first pit built since the Rocky Flats plutonium processing plant was closed in 1989, said Everet Beckner, deputy administrator for defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration.  The pit will be certified for use in U.S. weapons even though this production method has not been confirmed with test nuclear explosions.  Beckner said the Energy Department has established nonexplosive testing methods, using developmental pits, to confirm their performance.

While Los Alamos’s pit production operations are proceeding well, Energy still believes a new pit production site is needed, Beckner said (see GSN, Sept. 20, 2002; Energy Daily, March 10). 

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U.S.-Russia:  U.S. Senate Approves Moscow Treaty

The U.S. Senate voted 95-0 yesterday to approve the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which would limit each former Cold War rival to no more than 2,200 deployed strategic nuclear warheads by the end of 2012 (see GSN, March 6).

The pact, also known as the Moscow Treaty, is “evidence that the U.S.-Russian relationship has turned the corner,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) said (Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, March 7).

The treaty’s ratification could even help the White House obtain Russian support for the U.S.-British-Spanish-supported draft U.N. resolution on Iraq, Lugar said (see related GSN story, today).

“It’s the reason why Russia might eventually work with the United States in the Security Council on Iraq, because they value the relationship,” Lugar said in an interview with the Associated Press.  “They understand something new and important is happening here,” he added (Ken Guggenheim, Associated Press/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 7).

The Senate defeated two amendments to the treaty ratification resolution offered by Democrats, according to the Washington Post.  One, rejected 44-50, would have required Senate approval before the United States could withdraw from the treaty.  The second amendment, defeated 45-50, would have required annual intelligence reports on treaty compliance (Helen Dewar, Washington Post, March 7).

Senator Joseph Biden (D-Del.) said he had “many reservations” about the treaty.  Biden also said, however, that “the reason I’m for this treaty is, failure to ratify (it), I believe, would be read as bad faith” (Richter, Los Angeles Times).

Russia today praised the Senate for approving the Moscow Treaty.

“Russia is certain that after the ratification of the Moscow agreement in the (upper-house) Russian Federation Council and after it takes effect, it will become an important strategic factor for stability and global security in 21st century international relations,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a press statement.

Some Russian lawmakers, however, warned that the treaty’s ratification in Moscow could be disrupted if the United States goes to war with Iraq (see GSN, Jan. 16).

There “could be some complications if the United States launches a military operation against Iraq,” said Andrei Nikolayev, head of the lower house of the Russian Parliament’s defense committee (Agence France-Presse, March 7).

For further information, see:

U.S.-Russia Nuclear Reduction Treaty Text (U.S. State Department)

Bush Announces Moscow Treaty

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Moscow Treaty

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United States:  Pentagon Seeks Freedom to Research New Nuclear Weapons

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon yesterday made its case to Congress for its requested repeal of a 9-year-old ban on developing low-yield nuclear weapons intended for targeting deeply buried enemy bunkers and chemical and biological weapons stores (see GSN, March 6).

The Air Force, meanwhile, is planning to request congressional funding within a week to develop new high-yield nuclear weapons for a separate, but possibly overlapping mission to destroy deeply buried, hardened bunkers, the Washington Post reported today.

The request said the research ban impedes exploration of weapons concepts that could offer capabilities both for earth penetration weapons and for defeating chemical and biological agents.

These developments are “another piece of evidence the administration is willing to pursue new nuclear weapons of all kinds,” said Stephen Young, an analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Arguments Provided for Low-Yield Work

In a draft version of its fiscal 2004 budget request sent to the House and Senate Armed Services Committees this week, the Pentagon argued for repealing the ban on research into a low-yield, “mini-nuke.”

The ban was created by Congress in 1994 and bars research and development on nuclear weapons with yields below five kilotons.

The request said the repeal is needed to “train the next generation of nuclear weapons scientists and engineers,” and to “restore a nuclear weapons enterprise able to respond rapidly and decisively to changes in the international security environment or unforeseen technical problems in the stockpile.”

The military seeks a “revitalized nuclear weapons advanced concepts effort” and said the ban has had a “chilling effect” on that effort “by impeding the ability of our scientists and engineers to explore the full range of technical options.”

It said the ban “does not simply prohibit research on new, low-yield warheads, but prohibits any activities ‘which could potentially lead to production by the United States’ of such a warhead.”

“It is prudent national security policy not to foreclose exploration of technical options that could strengthen our ability to deter, or respond to, new or emerging threats,” it said.

In comments on the Senate floor yesterday, Senator Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said the Pentagon was seeking to repeal the low-yield nuclear weapons ban “even though there is clearly no military requirement for such a weapon.”

Representative John Spratt, (D-S.C.) who drafted the legislation that created the 1994 ban, questioned yesterday whether low-yield nuclear weapons would even work as intended.  He cited quotes by former national laboratory scientists who argued it would be difficult to develop a miniature nuclear weapon that could destroy chemical and biological agents instead of dispersing them.

Young of the Union of Concerned Scientists challenged the Pentagon’s reasoning that a repeal of the low-yield nuclear weapon development ban is needed for training scientists and engineers.

“What is needed now is scientists and engineers who are capable of maintaining the existing stockpile of nuclear weapons,” he said.

“The problem they face is that it’s a less exciting challenge than developing new nuclear weapons.  If they can’t blow things up in the labs or at the live test site, they might have trouble attracting top scientists to do the work.  It doesn’t mean they should do that to fulfill that goal.”

Democratic Criticism

Critics have charged that the Bush administration’s pursuit of new nuclear weapons, and suggestions it may use such weapons missions in combat, undermines the international norm against using nuclear weapons, as well as the treaties designed to discourage nuclear proliferation, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

“Frankly, this adds up to a very disturbing path of legitimizing the use of nuclear weapons in a world in which we are dramatically concerned with the possibility that Iraq is attempting to obtain nuclear weapons, a world in which the North Koreans are beginning to flaunt their ability to produce nuclear weapons, in which India and Pakistan are on the brink of conflict with nuclear weapons,” said Reed.

Senior Senate Democrats, including three presidential candidates, yesterday proposed but withdrew a resolution that offered a lengthy indictment of a range of Bush administration policies related to WMD proliferation.

It said a policy “that moves toward the goal of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and away from the increased reliance on and the importance of nuclear weapons” would further the U.S. goal of preventing nuclear weapons proliferation.

“Development of new and theoretically at least more useable nuclear capabilities by the greatest nuclear power on earth sends the clear message to other countries that they should develop their own nuclear weapons programs,” said Kathryn Crandall, an analyst with the British American Security Information Alliance.

Possible Earth Penetrator Testing

The Energy Department has requested $21 million for research on “advanced concepts,” $15 million of which would be allocated for continued study of options for the high-yield “earth penetrator” weapon.

Everet Beckner, deputy administrator for defense programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration, said yesterday in congressional testimony the money would support “theoretical and engineering work” that “might culminate in an integral flight or laboratory test” of a prototype weapon, he said.

Experts say such testing would not require a nuclear explosion.  The United States has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since 1992 and former President Bill Clinton signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996, but the Bush administration has made clear it will not ratify the treaty.

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North Korea:  Powell Says Washington Wants Nuclear-Free Korea

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday denied reports that the White House has accepted the idea of a nuclear-armed North Korea, but he said direct negotiations would yield little (see GSN, March 6).

“I don’t know of any basis for the report that we have decided to live with a nuclearized North Korea,” Powell said in testimony to the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice and State.  “We’re working with all of our friends in the region to see that North Korea does not become nuclearized, or even more nuclearized than it may be,” Powell said.

Powell complained that direct negotiations were being depicted as an easy way out of the current nuclear standoff.

“Now, every time you pick up the paper in the morning it says, ‘Oh, a quick solution is just — why don’t you just call them up and go talk to them?’  Well, that’s what happened some years ago and we came up with the Agreed Framework.  The Agreed Framework served a useful purpose in capping the Yongbyon facility so that it wasn’t producing any more fissionable material.  And I give credit to the Agreed Framework for having done that for eight years,” he said.

“But at the same time, the potential for developing fissionable material was left in place,” he added.

Powell said the answer now lies in multilateral negotiations and involvement of regional powers.

“We’re making it clear to the North Koreans that we do want to talk, but we want to talk in a multilateral forum,” he said.  “It is not just a problem between the United States and the D.P.R.K.  That’s the way they want to see it.  It’s a problem with the D.P.R.K. and the international community; the D.P.R.K. and the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Powell added.

He also testified that the United States is pushing a diplomatic solution the problem.  Washington wants a peaceful resolution to the crisis and is involved in several initiatives to start a multilateral dialogue, Powell said.

“Some of them are very, very quietly underway,” he added (Federal New Service transcript, March 6).

Experts testifying elsewhere in Congress yesterday, however, called for direct dialogue.

Even if nuclear-armed North Korea were prevented from exporting nuclear material, the regime could collapse and “loose nukes could fall into the hands of warlords or factions,” said Ashton Carter, a former assistant defense secretary and now a Harvard professor.

“The half-life of plutonium-239 is 24,400 years,” Carter told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday.  “I don’t know how long the North Korean regime will last, but it’s not that long,” he said (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, March 7).

President George W. Bush echoed Powell’s comments during his press conference last night.

“This is a regional issue.  I say a regional issue because there’s a lot of countries that have got a direct stake into whether or not North Korea has nuclear weapons,” Bush said.  “We’ve got a stake as to whether North Korea has a nuclear weapon.  China clearly has a stake as to whether or not North Korea has a nuclear weapon.  South Korea, of course, has a stake.  Japan has got a significant stake as to whether or not North Korea has a nuclear weapon.  Russia has a stake.  So, therefore, I think the best way to deal with this is in multilateral fashion, by convincing those nations they must stand up to their responsibility,” he added.

Bush said he was buoyed by the fact that Chinese President Jiang Zemin supported a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula (White House transcript, March 6).

Possible U.S. Pullout From South Korea

The United States is examining options for redistributing, or removing, military forces in South Korea, according to U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.  New South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has asked the United States to “look at how we might rebalance our relationship and our force structure,” Rumsfeld said.

“I suspect that what we’ll do is we’ll end up making some adjustments there,” he said.  The Pentagon can make such a move, Rumsfeld said, because South Korea’s armed forces provide “the kind of upfront deterrent that is needed” (Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times, March 7).

“Whether the forces would come home or whether they’d move farther south on the peninsula or whether they’d move to some neighboring area are the kinds of things that are being sorted out,” he added.

The Pentagon is conducting a similar re-evaluation with its forces in Western Europe, Rumsfeld said.  The potential realignment is not a result of changing political situations or the U.S. relationship with South Korea and Germany, defense officials said (Jaime McIntyre/Reuters, CNN.com, March 7).

KEDO Work Continues

The political standoff has not, however, stopped the preparation of the two nuclear reactors that were to be built for North Korea allowed under the 1994 Agreed Framework.

“Work continues at the site,” said Brian Kremer, a spokesman for the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization.  The project is 20 percent complete, he told Global Security Newswire today.

The site preparation is funded by loans from South Korea and Japan, and is not contingent on U.S. financial support, according to Kremer (see GSN, Feb. 4; David McGlinchey, Global Security Newswire, March 7).

The Bush administration has so far passed up opportunities to terminate the Agreed Framework, despite White House criticism of the agreement, which was signed under former President Bill Clinton, the Boston Globe reported.  In May 2001, the Bush administration authorized the transfer of some nuclear power safety information to North Korea.

“They’ve engaged in rhetorical hostility, but policy continuity with the Clinton administration’s North Korea policy from the very beginning,” said Representative Edward Markey (D-Mass.).

In a March 4 letter, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham told Markey that the department had sent 300 nuclear-related documents to North Korea, the Globe reported.  The documents include a safety analysis report, training documents, quality assurance documents and construction documents, according to the Globe.

In light of the current crisis, however, the White House is “now considering appropriate courses of action, possibly to include suspension or revocation of the May 2001 authorization,” according to Abraham (Wayne Washington, Boston Globe, March 7).

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United States:  Bush Administration Asks for Repeal of Ban on Mini-Nuke Research

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration today told Congress it would like a repeal a 9-year-old ban on research and development of low-yield nuclear weapons, provoking tough criticism from House Democrats.

The Pentagon included the request in its fiscal 2004 defense budget request.  Within the request is a provision to repeal a 1994 law banning research and development of nuclear weapons with yields below five kilotons.

Democrats expressed concern the administration’s request would harm U.S. credibility internationally on arms control and nonproliferation issues.

“This ban has been a pillar of arms control for the past decade.  I consider it completely irresponsible of us to be asking for this now considering the fact that we are attempting to disarm other people around the world,” said Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) in a hearing yesterday of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.

“I think it has great potential to harm what little credibility this administration has left on arms control,” she said.

National Security Justification Offered

The text suggested the repeal is needed in part for national security reasons, to be able respond to challenges in international security, and to train young scientists. 

An Energy Department official advocated the repeal today at the House hearing.

“I do support repealing the legislation,” said Everet Beckner, deputy administrator for defense programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration.

“The reason for that is primarily one of it’s causing us to stop some analyses from occurring, which is a natural extension of work that you would do at higher yields,” he said.

Tauscher asked whether research prevented by the ban has ever harmed the national security of the United States.

Beckner said, “I think to date it has not.  But looking to the future I’m not certain.”

Under questioning, Beckner also said the U.S. national laboratories lately were having “great success” in making new hires from universities.

Anti-WMD Weapons

The Pentagon may seek the option of using the low-yield warheads, experts said, for striking deeply buried and hardened underground bunkers, and also possibly for striking enemy chemical and biological weapons sites, with the idea the extreme heat from the blast would destroy the dangerous properties of those weapons.

Critics have charged the blast from the weapons would be harmful to any nearby populations, would be questionably effective and would break the taboo of using nuclear weapons.

Beckner said further research is required to know whether the weapons might work as hoped against chemical and biological agents.

“We know that we have to understand much better in the future how you destroy chemical and biological agents, as opposed to disbursing them. … As we study the problem more fully, we realize how difficult it is, specifically to kill biological agents,” he said.

Possible International Implications

The requested repeal comes as the Bush administration is preparing for a possible war on Iraq in part because of Baghdad’s pursuit of nuclear weapons in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.  The administration is also handling a crisis with North Korea, which withdrew from the treaty in January.

The United States is one of five countries allowed to possess nuclear weapons by the treaty, but those five agreed to make good faith efforts toward total nuclear disarmament over time.

Tauscher asked Beckner, “What do you think the ramifications would be if we repealed this ban to our credibility in the world that we are actually committed to arms control, to removing weapons systems not increasing systems, and that we are not kind of talking out of both sides of our mouths [when the United States] is attempting to prevent other people from getting nuclear weapons?”

Beckner said his job as a scientist was not to address such questions, but rather is to “assess the threat to the country and propose solutions.”

Representative Heather Wilson (R-N.M.), who released a controversial report last month urging the repeal, said she thought it was “an illusion to think that we would be safer if we don’t let people think about, explore things that we might find frightening, because they would never be able to come back to us with options” (see GSN, Feb. 14).

Ten Democratic senators recently sent a letter to Bush saying his administration’s nuclear policy “threatens the very foundation” of international arms control and the 33-year-old nuclear proliferation treaty, the Washington Times reported yesterday (see GSN, March 5).

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U.S.-Russia I:  Senate Consideration of Moscow Treaty Begins

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate began yesterday to consider approving the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, and legislators were continuing debate today as Democrats were expected to propose numerous conditions or declarations to add to the resolution of ratification (see GSN, Feb. 5).

The treaty requires that each country remove several thousand strategic nuclear warheads from their delivery platforms by 2012, but has been widely criticized for not doing more.

“None of the proposed amendments are expected to be passed,” said John Isaacs, president of the Council for a Livable World, as voting is expected to follow party lines and Democrats do not have a majority.

The treaty itself, though, should be approved overwhelmingly, he said, clearing the way for ratification by President George W. Bush.  Two-thirds of senators present are required to approve a treaty before a president can ratify it.

“A Turning Point”

Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the agreement last May in Moscow, hailing it as a major arms control breakthrough (see GSN, May 24, 2002). 

It has been widely criticized, however, by Republicans and Democrats for not requiring the destruction of any nuclear warheads or delivery systems, and otherwise leaving many potential threats in place.  The treaty requires each country to remove all but a maximum of 2,200 strategic nuclear warheads from their delivery platforms — submarines, bombers and missiles — by the end of 2012.

The treaty establishes no timetable for implementation, includes no mechanisms for verification of compliance, and does not address potentially thousands of tactical nuclear weapons possessed by the two countries, critics say.

A senior Russian military official at a press conference earlier this month restated Russia’s satisfaction with the treaty because of the lack of requirements.

“We have sort of received a certain blank check in terms of keeping our strategic arms,” said Russia’s First Deputy Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff Yuri Baluyevsky, adding it would allow Russia to retain the strategic warheads “up to 10 or more years.”

Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.), a declared presidential candidate, published a Boston Globe commentary yesterday calling the agreement “full of holes.”

Senator Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), according to Isaacs, is considering offering a declaration urging Bush to negotiate a new treaty with Russia that would take effect when START I expires in 2007 and would require deep, verifiable and irreversible cuts in both countries’ stockpiles of strategic and nonstrategic nuclear warheads.

Most senators appear convinced, however, that while the treaty requires relatively little from either side compared to previous strategic arms control treaties, it nevertheless should be approved because it represents some progress in the U.S.-Russian arms reduction relationship.

“The Moscow Treaty represents a turning point” in U.S. strategic relations, said Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.).

Russia insisted on the treaty after the United States declared it would withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which hampered U.S. missile defense plans (see GSN, June 13, 2002).

“I think all Republicans will vote against every provision [Democrats attempt to add], as will [Senator Joseph] Biden (D-Del.) and probably a few other votes,” said Isaacs.  Because Senate Republicans have a majority, Isaacs expected Democrats to lose every vote to add conditions or declarations.

Threats Remain

Critics also fault the treaty for leaving potentially thousands of U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons on high alert.

Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is expected to offer a declaration encouraging Bush to lower the alert status of deployed U.S. nuclear forces.

Nuclear strategy expert Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information said last week U.S. and Russian forces continue to target each other with thousands of nuclear weapons.

“The vast bulk of our strategic missiles still remain aimed at Russia, with thousands of them ready to fire within a couple of minutes,” he told a conference cosponsored by his organization. 

Blair said the United States remains poised to strike “about 2,000 targets in Russia” and continues to probe Russian forces for holes through which the United States could strike.

He said Russia continues to maintain a force of nuclear weapons “on hair-trigger, aimed at the United States.”

Some critics have charged that the Moscow Treaty may actually decrease U.S. security, since the United States and Russia have both renounced the never-ratified START II.  That treaty would have required eliminating all land-based, multiple warhead missiles, which U.S. officials historically said were a serious security concern.

The “president claims that his Moscow Treaty ‘will liquidate the legacy of the Cold War’ by eliminating thousands of nuclear arms left over from a bygone era when the United States and Russia faced each other across the nuclear divide.  In reality, it does no such thing,” wrote Kerry. 

“The treaty does not reduce the actual number of nuclear forces — it leaves these weapons and their lethal materials stockpiled across Russia in constant danger of falling to terrorists or rogue nations intent on doing great harm to the United States,” he wrote.

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North Korea:  White House Denies Accepting Nuclear North Korea

U.S. officials denied reports yesterday that President George W. Bush has resigned himself to the inevitability of a nuclear-armed North Korea, as reports emerged that some backchannel negotiations with North Korea are underway (see GSN, March 5).

“The position of the United States, along with our allies in the region, is just the opposite, that it is important to make certain that there is a denuclearized Korean Peninsula,” White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said yesterday.

Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers and experts attacked the White House for not taking a more active role in dealing with Pyongyang.

“The White House continues to sit back and watch, playing down the threat and apparently playing for time, but time is not on our side,” said Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, March. 6).

Several former Clinton administration officials said the White House must become more active in the situation.

“We cannot wait this out,” said former Defense Secretary William Perry.  “In a few months, the North Koreans will have five or six nuclear bombs.  That fundamentally changes the situation,” he added.

On Capitol Hill, Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) said the White House must turn its attention toward Pyongyang.

“I am increasingly alarmed that this administration’s military and diplomatic fixation on waging war with Iraq is serving to overshadow and possibly eclipse the mounting crisis in North Korea,” Byrd said (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, March 6).

Fleischer said the White House remains firm in its determination not to hold direct talks with North Korea until Pyongyang abandons its nuclear aspirations.

The White House has focused on the “importance of working together in a multilateral fashion with China and Russia and Japan and South Korea.  After all, they have a stake in this too,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com).

Backchannels Open

Nuclear experts from North Korea and the United States, however, did meet Feb. 13 in Berlin to discuss the nuclear crisis, according to the Financial Times.

Joel Wit, a senior fellow from the Center for Strategic and International Studies and another U.S. expert met with North Korean officials, according to the newspaper.  The North Koreans reportedly asked for details on what kind of inspections the United States was seeking to verify that Pyongyang dismantled its nuclear program (Financial Times/BBC Monitoring, March 6).

In addition, Ra Jong-yil, a senior South Korean security adviser, met with a top North Korean official in Beijing last month, Seoul revealed today.

“What is confirmed is that Senior Adviser Ra met with someone from the North.  However, the contact was nothing official and it didn’t have any agenda,” said presidential spokeswoman Song Kyoung-hee.

The meeting was intended to open “a dialogue channel,” she said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com).

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U.S.-Russia II:  Agreement Will Shutter Russian Plutonium Plants

Top U.S. and Russian officials are set to sign an agreement next week on U.S. financial assistance that is needed to shut down three Russian plutonium-producing reactors (see GSN, Feb. 11).

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and Russian Atomic Energy Minster Alexander Rumyantsev will formalize the agreement in Vienna, ITAR-Tass reported.

An agreement had been reached several years ago but the parties did not sign it because Russia had to find an alternate energy source to replace the reactors, according to Linton Brooks, acting head of the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration.

A decision to build a facility for plutonium disposal is expected in the next year, ITAR-Tass reported.

“The problem is regularly in a negotiation process,” Rumyantsev said.

“The next round of the talks will be held in the nearest week or two.  Under an accord of 2000, foreign participants, first of all the United States and the European Union, must finance the project.  As concerns the ground where it could be built, this is most likely Siberia or the Urals — one of our so-called closed cities, because we shall be able to ensure there the most reliable safeguarding of nuclear activities,” Rumyantsev said (ITAR-Tass, March 5).

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U.S.-Russia III:  Russian Experts Inspect U.S. Strategic Facilities

Russian military experts today completed a set of inspections of several U.S. strategic nuclear facilities (see GSN, Feb. 27).  The inspections, conducted under the auspices of START, examined arms and equipment at facilities located in the Western United States, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said (Vladislav Kuznetsov, ITAR-Tass, March 6).

For further information, see:

START I Text and Associated Documents (U.S. Defense Department)

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North Korea:  White House May Accept North Korean Nukes

The White House is prepared to accept that it cannot stop North Korea from becoming a nuclear state and is now seeking ways to contain Pyongyang’s potential nuclear stockpile, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, March 4).

The Bush administration is “preparing people up here for a de facto, if not declared, North Korean nuclear state and saying that this is something we can deal with through isolation, sanctions, deterrence and national missile defense,” said a Senate staff member familiar with White House briefings on Capitol Hill.

Administration officials, the staff member said, “are trying to prevent Congress from leaping in alarm and either calling for pre-emptive military actions, which they don’t think offers them good options, or criticizing them for being surprised by the North becoming a nuclear power on their watch.”

A senior Bush administration official denied that the White House has accepted a nuclear Pyongyang as an inevitable outcome.

“Resigned?  Throwing up our hands?  Working our how to accept them as a nuclear power?  No, that’s not what we’re doing,” the official said.

A statement from Senator Joseph Biden (D-Del.) said that the reports, if accurate, are “disturbing.”

“I’m amazed that we would sit back and let North Korea become a plutonium factory churning out the world’s most dangerous material and possibly selling it to the highest bidder,” Biden said.  “We need to treat this problem for what it is — a crisis — and listen to our allies who say we can still head it off if we just sit down and talk” to Pyongyang, Biden said (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, March 5).

Several U.S. allies in the region have apparently reached the conclusion that a nuclear North Korea is inevitable, the Washington Post reported.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, sent a message to Washington that Seoul would prefer a nuclear North Korea to the disorder that would follow collapse of Kim Jong Il’s regime, according to the Post.

In Japan, some lawmakers agree that the nuclear process cannot be stopped.

“We need to be debating how to live with North Korea, with or without nuclear weapons,” said Taro Kono, a member of the ruling party (Struck/Kessler, Washington Post, March 5).

U.S. Sends Bombers

The Pentagon, meanwhile, announced yesterday it plans to send two dozen long-range bombers to Guam, putting them within easy striking distance of North Korea, the New York Times reported.

The order was issued before an encounter Saturday between a U.S. spy plane and four North Korean fighter jets (Sanger/Shanker, New York Times, March 5).

The Pentagon has currently suspended surveillance flights to the area where the incident occurred, USA Today reported today.

Defense officials are “reviewing what happened and deciding what to continue,” said a senior administration official (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, March 5).

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Iran:  Officials Plan to Open Uranium Processing Plant Soon

Iran has reportedly said it will open a uranium processing plant in coming weeks, according to Reuters (see GSN, Feb. 27).

“Iran will start operating its nuclear facility in Isfahan early next (Iranian) year,” Hassan Rohani, secretary general of the National Supreme Security Council, was quoted in a number of newspapers as saying.

The Iranian calendar year begins March 21, according to Reuters.

Uranium from Iranian mines would be processed at the Isfahan plant and the resulting gas enriched at another site in Natanz, Rohani said.

Iranian officials say their nuclear effort is solely intended to generate energy.  Washington has accused Iran of a clandestine nuclear weapons effort and U.S. officials have said Iran’s fossil fuel supply is enough to power the country.

“Having access to the technology is not translated into having access to an atomic bomb.  It is scientific technology used for peaceful purposes,” Rohani said (Reuters/Planet Ark, March 5).

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Ukraine:  United States Pledges $1.5 Million to Boost Security at Research Institute

The United States has agreed to provide $1.5 million to Ukraine to help improve security at the Kharkiv-Physical Technical Institute, Carlos Pascual, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 11, 2002).  The institute is estimated to store as much as 75 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (Tom Warner, Financial Times, March 5).

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United States:  Senators Protest White House Nuclear Policy

Ten Democratic U.S. senators have sent a letter to the White House protesting President George W. Bush’s nuclear policy, the Washington Times reported today (see related GSN story, today).

The 10 said recent newspaper reports have indicated that the Bush administration “considers nuclear weapons as a mere extension of the continuum of conventional weapons open to the United States, and that your administration may use nuclear weapons in the looming military conflict against Iraq,” according to the letter.

Senators Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) led the group, the Washington Times reported.

Reports have indicated that the White House has been planning possible use of nuclear weapons in Iraq and a classified national security document was revealed that keeps the nuclear option open.

“The United States will continue to make clear that it reserves the right to respond with overwhelming force — including potentially nuclear weapons to the use of (weapons of mass destruction) — against the United States, our forces abroad, and friends and allies,” according to last September’s National Security Presidential Directive 17 (see GSN, Jan. 31).

The letter decried this policy and noted that Iraq is not known to possess nuclear weapons and is still a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

“Abandoning our pledge under the NPT would be to turn our backs on all nuclear nonproliferation efforts, since the treaty serves as the hub for the entire nuclear arms control framework,” the senators wrote.

The senators said using a nuclear weapon would encourage other countries to develop nuclear weapons and open the door for existing nuclear powers to use their own weapons (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, March 5).

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China:  Beijing’s Military Budget to Jump 17 Percent

China will announce this week that it is increasing its military spending by more than 17 percent, and international analysts say the actual increase could be much larger, the South China Morning Post reported today.

Unpublicized money could be funding a new missile program, a program to equip missiles with multiple warheads or an effort to develop new nuclear weapons, said Larry Wortzel, vice president of the Heritage Foundation in Washington (see GSN, Feb. 11).

In an effort to combat terrorism and intimidate Taiwan, China will spend about $24 billion on defense, an increase of more than $4 billion from last year’s budget, according to the Morning Post.  This will mark the 13th consecutive year that China has posted a double-digit percentage increase in its military spending, the Morning Post reported.

The actual figure could be as much as three to four times the official amount, Wortzel said (Fong Tak-ho, South China Morning Post, March 5).

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