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Iraq I: United Kingdom Continues Work on Resolution CompromiseThe United Kingdom continued its efforts today to create a compromise U.N. Security Council resolution on Iraq that would contain an agreeable deadline for full compliance by Iraq and include a series of compliance “benchmarks,” according to reports (see GSN, March 11). “We are busting a gut to see if we can get greater consensus in the council,” British U.N. Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock, said, adding that he expected a vote on the resolution by Friday. “We are going to go on talking until we find a way forward through the Security Council together,” he said. Under the British proposal, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would have 10 days to demonstrate that Iraq had taken a “strategic decision” to disarm itself of weapons of mass destruction by fulfilling a set of benchmarks. If Iraq complied, a second phase would begin that would allow more time to verify Iraq’s disarmament, according to the Los Angeles Times. “There is a two-stage process,” Greenstock said. “One is to be convinced that Iraq is cooperating, the other is to disarm Iraq completely,” he added. The six still-undecided nonpermanent council members oppose the 10-day deadline and have instead requested a 45-day deadline. In a compromise proposal, Canada recommended a three-week window. The United States, however, is opposed to extending the deadline much past March 17, the date originally proposed in a U.S.-British-Spanish draft resolution circulated Friday, according to the Times (see GSN, March 7). Possible Benchmarks Council members are beginning to agree, through negotiations one diplomat described as “gradual, painful and unproductive,” on what benchmarks Iraq would have to meet to show compliance. Those tests include allowing inspectors to interview Iraqi WMD scientists, the destruction of VX and anthrax stocks and possibly the full destruction of Iraq’s supply of prohibited al-Samoud 2 ballistic missiles. “We’re talking at the Bush-Blair level, to (France, Russia and China), to the middle six and others,” said a senior diplomatic source close to the negotiations, noting the six undecided Security Council members. “You get an inch from one side, and you use that to get an inch from the other,” the diplomat said (Farley/Richter, Los Angeles Times, March 12). Other proposed tests include a public admission by Hussein that he has concealed WMD stockpiles and will now destroy them; full disclosure of Iraq’s drone aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles; and a commitment to give up all mobile biological weapons laboratories, according to Reuters (Reuters/MSNBC.com, March 12). The United States indicated support for the compromise resolution yesterday, urging the Security Council to vote on it this week. U.S. officials said, however, that they opposed any extension of the deadline for full Iraqi compliance beyond a few days. “The vote will take place this week,” said White House press secretary Ari Fleischer. “There’s room for a little more diplomacy here but not much room and not much time,” he added (Mark Matthews, Baltimore Sun, March 12). In a paper distributed yesterday, however, the White House said that the Security Council is still divided over any resolution on Iraq and “peaceful disarmament looks less and less likely.” U.S. President George W. Bush’s frustration with the United Nations has reached the point to where it could lead to long-term effects, White House aides said. “He [Bush] said it was a test of credibility, and the council passed a resolution that says immediate and complete disarmament but now will not enforce its own resolution,” a senior Bush administration official said. “It sends a message,” the official added (CNN.com, March 12). British Politics U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday that the United States could launch an attack on Iraq even without the aid of British troops. If Blair was unable to commit British forces because of domestic political problems, there were “work-around” scenarios in place that would allow the United States to still proceed, Rumsfeld said (see GSN, Feb. 27). These scenarios involve the use of British troops in noncombat missions, such as occupying oil fields or humanitarian work, U.S. officials said. The British government has denied that there have been any talks on British troops not fully participating in a war with Iraq. “Donald Rumsfeld has got that wrong, we will be actively engaged if we have to be,” said a British government spokesman. “We continue to work for a second resolution,” he added. Graham Allen, a member of Parliament who opposes war with Iraq, said Rumsfeld’ comments were a “heaven-sent opportunity” to provide political cover for Blair. “He has been franker with the British people than the government,” Allen said. “The cat is out of the bag. They can do it without us and given Tony Blair the chance to get out of the hole if he wishes,” he added. The Pentagon has issued a “clarification” statement saying that Rumsfeld did expect the United Kingdom’s full support. “I have no doubt of the full support of the United Kingdom for the international community’s efforts to disarm Iraq. In the event that a decision to use force is made, we have every reason to believe there will be a significant military contribution from the United Kingdom,” Rumsfeld’s statement said (Watson/Webster, London Times, March 12). U.S. officials have said that Washington has allowed the diplomatic process within the Security Council to go on this long to provide political aid for Blair. “We’re hanging on to diplomacy because of the need to give credence to Blair’s promise to pursue diplomacy as far as he could,” a U.S. official said yesterday. “It’s not in our interest to have Tony Blair fall as prime minister over his commitment to help us,” the official added (Matthews, Baltimore Sun). Bush Diplomacy The Bush administration focused its diplomatic efforts yesterday on five of the six still-wavering nonpermanent council members, involving the use of veiled threats of the consequences of their lack of support, according to U.S. diplomats. For example, the United States has suggested to Angola that $20 million in annual humanitarian aid might be reduced if it does not support the United States. U.S. diplomats have also indicated to Chile that the approval of a pending free-trade agreement could be delayed in the U.S. Congress and suggested to Cameroon and Guinea that the United States might not push strongly for those countries to receive loans from international lenders, according to U.S. diplomats. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus has charged that the White House has threatened a boycott of Mexican goods and services if Mexico does not side with the United States on Iraq. Fleischer, however, dismissed the complaint, calling it “nonsense.” Pakistan has been fairly immune to U.S. diplomatic pressures because the United States still needs Islamabad’s help in the war on terrorism, according to USA Today. Pakistan has indicated that it will abstain on a vote on a new resolution (McQuillan/Squitieri, USA Today, March 12). U.S. State Department officials said today they believe the United States is only lacking one vote to have the necessary nine for a new resolution to pass. The United States is now confident it has the support of Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, one official said (CNN.com II, March 12). Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov yesterday reiterated his country’s decision to use its veto if necessary to block the U.S.-British-drafted resolution. In his comments during a press conference in Tehran, Ivanov did not address, however, the new British compromise proposal. “Russia is very much against this resolution which is in the works,” Ivanov said during the press conference, held jointly with Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi. “We will vote against this,” Ivanov added (Reuters, March 11). U.S. Troops, Experts Train to Recover Iraqi WMD Meanwhile, the U.S. Army’s 75th Exploitation Task Force has begun training to follow U.S. and allied troops into Iraq to document discovered WMD stockpiles and to recover samples for further examination, according to the Washington Post. “The objective of this specific task force is to prove to the world what Saddam actually has,” said Army Col. Richard McPhee, who heads the unit. The unit is made up of soldiers from all four branches of the U.S. armed services, along with British military experts and personnel from several U.S. civilian agencies, the Post reported. “Everyone understands the importance of this,” McPhee said. “It’s a great mission,” he added (Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, March 12). Iraqi Drone Iraq said today that a recently discovered drone aircraft, which the United States has claimed was meant for use in chemical weapons attacks, was only a model intended for reconnaissance missions. “It is a prototype,” said Gen. Ibrahim Hussein, director of the Ibn Firnas site, where inspectors discovered the drone. “It has not reached the stage of production. It has not the capability whatsoever to carry chemical or biological weapons,” he added (Agence France-Presse, March 12). Iraqi authorities took journalists to the site in an attempt to prove that the drone was not part of Iraqi WMD efforts. One Associated Press journalist described the drone as appearing to be constructed from balsa wood and duct tape, with propellers connected to what appeared to be the engines of a weed whacker. Brig. Imad Abdul Latif, director of the drone project, accused U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell of intentionally misleading the Security Council as to the purpose of the drone. “He’s making a big mistake,” Latif said. “He knows very well that this aircraft is not used for what he said,” Latif added (Niko Price, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 12). U-2 Flights The U-2 surveillance flights currently being carried out over Iraq as part of the inspections regime caused a minor crisis yesterday when two simultaneous flights raised concerns among Iraqi officials, who said they had not been properly informed, according to the Los Angeles Times (see GSN, Feb. 18). Iraq scrambled fighter aircraft to respond to the second U-2 flight, which was considered suspicious, according to U.S. sources. An Iraqi official in Baghdad said, however, that the second plane was only monitored and that Iraqi officials telephoned U.N. officials for clarification. Gen. Hossam Mohammed Amin, the chief Iraqi liaison to the inspectors, called the incident a “technical mistake” by the United Nations and said a U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission official in Baghdad had apologized. “He promised that the mistake would never be repeated,” Amin said. U.N. officials denied the apology, however, saying it was not necessary because there is no limit as to how many U-2 surveillance flights can occur at the same time (John Daniszewski, Los Angeles Times, March 12). Inspections U.N. inspectors have visited at least one suspect Iraqi site today, according to Reuters. Inspectors traveled to al-Taji to continue supervising the destruction of banned al-Samoud 2 missiles (see related GSN story, today; Reuters, March 12). Yesterday, inspectors traveled to at least eight suspect Iraqi sites, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency press release. UNMOVIC missile inspectors traveled to the Taji Technical Battalion and supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles. They also traveled to the Waziriyah plant and inventoried destroyed al-Samoud 2 components. UNMOVIC biological inspectors visited the Kerbala for Canning Foods Co. Ltd in Kerbala. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited three factories owned by the State Company for Battery Manufacturing — two located in Baghdad and one located west of Baghdad. Inspectors visited the Mosul branch of the Mesopotamia Seed Company, the IAEA release said. IAEA inspectors visited the Ur General Establishment, near Nasiriyah (IAEA release, March 11). For further information, see:
From March 12, 2003 issue.Iraq II: Negative Consequences of War Outweigh Positive Benefits, Report SaysBy Mike Nartker The report examines several scenarios each for both the favorable and negative consequences of a war with Iraq, but ultimately concludes that the potential negative security benefits of war and occupation outweigh the potential benefits. “On balance, quashing Iraq’s WMD ambitions by force is an unnecessary gamble whose probable benefits do not warrant taking the inherent risks,” the report says. “A more effective course of action for reducing mass-destruction terrorism and weapons threats would be to bolster existing constraints on Iraq’s WMD potential,” it adds. Potential Benefits The report details several scenarios examining potential positive and negative consequences of a war on Iraq (see GSN, Oct. 29, 2002). Monterey researcher Michael Barletta authored the report and based the scenarios on a number of underlying assumptions, including Iraq’s possession of biological and chemical weapons, as well as delivery systems; a lack of Iraqi restraint in using such weapons; and an ultimate U.S. victory over Iraq should war occur. According to the report, the probable benefits of the defeat of Hussein include the fall of his regime, the capture and destruction of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, the prevention of Iraq exporting WMD to other rogue states or terrorists groups, and the experience gained by U.S. troops by learning how to disrupt WMD attacks. In addition, a successful war with Iraq could result in possibly discovering and later destroying Iraqi smallpox stockpiles, relocating Iraqi WMD scientists to Western countries, and demonstrating the U.S. military’s ability to withstand WMD attacks, thereby dampening the interest of other countries to acquire WMD, according the report. It also says, however, that is unlikely that a war with Iraq could end state-sponsored terrorism or lead to other rogue states voluntarily ending their own WMD efforts. Possible Costs Despite such benefits, even a successful U.S. war with Iraq would have some negative consequences, according to the report. For example, North Korea would probably exploit the U.S. focus on Iraq to further expand its own nuclear capabilities, Iraqi WMD expertise and knowledge could leak into the hands of other rogue states and terrorist groups through a lack of centralized control and the scattering of Iraqi scientists seeking to avoid war crimes prosecution; Iraqi forces would probably use chemical and biological weapons to inflict at least limited casualties on U.S. troops, and a post-war Iraq would retain at least some WMD expertise and dual-use infrastructure. It is also possible, though not probable, that war with Iraq could spur Iraqi WMD attacks on Israel, the report says, adding that if such attacks were large enough, Israel could be forced to respond. The report also warns of post-conflict attacks on U.S. occupation troops, possibly with chemical and biological weapons, and the possibility that other rogue states might accelerate their own WMD programs over fears of potential U.S. pre-emptive attacks. The report does play down the possibility of some “nightmare” scenarios. These unlikely scenarios include a post-Hussein Iraq still armed with substantial quantities of WMD; other states, such as China or India, developing their own pre-emption doctrines; and U.S. or Israeli nuclear retaliation against Baghdad. Before launching an attack on Iraq, the United States needs to consider both the positive and negative consequences of such an attack, according to the report. It finds, however, that the “disastrous” negative security consequences tip the balance in favor for a more restrained approach. “In sum, the impending war is a risky venture,” the report says.
From March 12, 2003 issue.U.S. Response: Washington Sanctions Two Foreign EntitiesBy Mike Nartker The Indian company Protech Consultants Private, Ltd. and Jordanian national Mohammed al-Khatib were found in violation of the nonproliferation act for providing support to Iraq’s biological and chemical weapons efforts over the last few years, according to a U.S. State Department official. The sanctions, which took effect Feb. 13, prohibit the United States from purchasing goods from or providing an export license to the two entities for two years.
From March 12, 2003 issue.Iraq III: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27, 2002. About 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.
From March 11, 2003 issue.Iraq I: United States, United Kingdom Delay Security Council VoteThe United States and the United Kingdom decided not to call for a U.N. Security Council vote today, as they had originally planned, on their draft resolution on Iraq that sets a March 17 deadline for full Iraqi compliance with U.N. demands, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 10). The council has instead chosen to hold an open meeting on Iraq today and tomorrow at the request of the Nonaligned Movement, which is made up of about 115 developing countries, AP reported. This meeting could push back a vote on the resolution until at least Thursday, diplomats said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 11). In the meantime, British officials have begun revising the resolution after a majority of council members indicated they would not vote for it as it now stands, diplomats and White House officials said. The proposed changes include an extension of the March 17 deadline and the inclusion of a series of “benchmarks” that would help judge Iraqi compliance, according to the Washington Post. The benchmarks would consist of several broad categories of specific required Iraqi actions: arranging a large number of private interviews with Iraqi scientists; providing substantial information on alleged VX stockpiles, accounting for all outstanding anthrax stockpiles and providing all information on ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, the Post reported. “We are examining whether a list of defined tests for Iraqi compliance would be useful in helping the Security Council come to a judgment. What we’re proposing is eminently reasonable. We are not expecting [Iraqi President] Saddam [Hussein] to have disarmed in a week or so,” British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said. “But what we are expecting is that the Iraqi regime should demonstrate by that time the full, unconditional, immediate active cooperation demanded of it by successive U.N. Security Council resolutions,” he added. There is little chance that the United States will support an extension of the deadline past March 21, officials said. A number of the six still-undecided nonpermanent Security Council members had requested the inclusion of the benchmarks and said yesterday that they did not object to the inclusion of a deadline. The benchmarks would only be feasible, however, if there was a post-deadline Security Council meeting to determine if Iraq had met them, they said. “The normal process would be for (the inspectors) to continue, then come back to the council and say” whether the goals have been met, said a diplomat from one of the six still-undecided countries. “Then the council decides,” the diplomat added. A British official said that a collective decision by the council on Iraqi compliance would not be needed, adding that it would be apparent if Iraq had chosen to comply. “We can tell the difference between someone who is genuinely committed and someone who is hanging back,” the official said (DeYoung/Lynch, Washington Post, March 11). U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday called the leaders of a number of countries, including China, Japan, South Africa, Turkey, Nigeria and Spain, in an attempt to increase support for the draft resolution, according to the White House. While only China and Spain are Security Council members, the others are seen as having influence over the council members in their respective regions, according to the Washington Times. “Today is a very busy day of phone diplomacy at the White House,” White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said. Bush “is working this issue and making phone calls to the various nations, calling undecided nations, calling other nations, for example, and urging them to call members of the Security Council,” he added (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, March 11). French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin yesterday concluded a visit to the three African members of the council — Angola, Cameroon and Guinea — which had been an attempt to sway them into joining France in opposition to the draft resolution, according to Reuters. The three countries, however, did not indicate that they had made a decision on their stance. Angola will not be pressured into making a decision, Foreign Minister Joao Bernardo de Miranda said. “We are not giving into pressure … Angola’s position is closer to neither the U.S. nor France. It is Angola’s position,” de Miranda said. “Angola is for peace but the disarmament of Iraq is a primary question,” he added (Saliou Samb, Reuters, March 11). French President Jacques Chirac said yesterday that his country would vote “no” on the current draft resolution. “There could, effectively, be a majority of nine votes or more for a new resolution, one which would authorize war,” Chirac said. “If that was the case, then France would vote ‘no.’ France will vote ‘no’ because she considers tonight that there is no reason to wage a war to reach the goal we set ourselves, that is the disarmament of Iraq,” he added (PBS Online NewsHour, March 10). A member of Pakistan’s ruling Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam party said today that his country would abstain on the vote. “The decision is that Pakistan should abstain,” said Azeem Chaudhary. A Pakistani government spokesman said, however, that Islamabad had still not arrived at a final decision. “The decision will be taken at the crunch time, keeping in view the national interests,” the spokesman said (United Press International, March 11). White House Criticizes Blix Over Missing Data Meanwhile, the Bush administration yesterday criticized U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix for omitting from his briefing to the Security Council last week several examples of Iraq’s development of banned weapons systems. Blix did not tell the council about a discovered Iraqi drone capable of being armed with chemical weapons, a possible large supply of anthrax and the possible existence of a cluster bomb that could have been filled with biological or chemical agents, Bush administration spokesmen said. While these systems were mentioned in the written report Blix provided to council members, he did not include mention of them in his oral presentation, according to the Boston Globe. U.N. spokesman Ewen Buchanan denied, however, that Blix had concealed any important information. Inspectors have not yet determined whether the drone is a prohibited item and Blix has repeatedly discussed missing anthrax stockpiles, Buchanan said. Blix had also included the issue of drones in his presentation, Buchanan added (Donnelly/Neuffer, Boston Globe, March 11). There is evidence that Iraq attempted to dismantle the undeclared drone last week after it had been discovered by inspectors, according to U.N. and U.S. officials. Inspectors found the drone, which has a wingspan of almost 25 feet, at the Samarra East flight-test facility north of Baghdad in mid-February, officials said. They raised questions about the drone last week after visiting the Ibn Fernas Center in northern Baghdad, where drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles are produced, according to the Washington Post. When inspectors returned to the Samarra East site the next day, they found two large drones, with Iraqi technicians dismantling one of them, as well as two smaller drones, a senior Bush administration official said. “They apparently did not expect the inspectors,” the official said (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, March 11). U.S. Action Could Violate U.N. Charter U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said yesterday that if the United States chose to go to war with Iraq without Security Council approval, it could be in violation of the U.N. charter. The U.N. charter is “very clear on circumstances under which force can be used,” Annan said in The Hague. “If the U.S. and others were to go outside the council and take military action, it would not be in conformity with the charter,” he added. In a reply, Fleischer countered that “from a moral point of view,” if the United Nations failed to support the U.S. stance, it will have “failed to act once again,” such as it did during the genocide in Rwanda in the 1990s (Tyler/Barringer, New York Times, March 11). Iraq Complains of U.S. Treatment of Diplomatic Couriers The United States has denied visas to Iraqi diplomatic couriers, which has forced Iraqi envoys within the United States to communicate through electronic measures subject to interception, Iraqi U.N. Ambassador Mohammed al-Douri said (see GSN, March 6). “We cannot get visas for our couriers. As such, we can no longer send any diplomatic pouches,” al-Douri said. The visa denials appear to be part of a larger U.S. effort to disrupt Iraqi diplomatic communications throughout the world, al-Douri said. He added that U.S. officials have approached several members of the Iraqi U.N. delegation and encouraged them to defect. “Everyone on my staff has been approached to defect but me,” al-Douri said. “I expect to be declared persona non grata,” he added (Stewart Stogel, Washington Times, March 11). U.S. Spying Controversy British authorities are investigating a British intelligence employee in connection with a leaked U.S. National Security Agency memo that detailed increase U.S. surveillance of Security Council members, according to the Baltimore Sun (see GSN, March 4). A 28-year-old female employee of the Government Communications Headquarters was arrested last week and held overnight before being released on bail the following day, said Inspector Richard Smith of the Gloucestershire Constabulary. The employee has not been charged but is being investigated “on suspicion of contravening the Official Secrets Act,” which protects intelligence information, Smith said (Scott Shane, Baltimore Sun, March 11). Inspections U.N. inspectors visited at least seven suspect Iraqi sites yesterday, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency press release. Biological experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission visited the Nehrawan branch of the Mesopotamia State Company for Seed Handling. Inspectors also visited the State Establishment for Mechanical Industries in Iskandariyah and the Hiteen State Company. IAEA inspectors visited al-Tuwaitha to review the status of radioactive waste still in storage there and to conduct a radiation survey (IAEA release, March 10). For further information, see:
From March 11, 2003 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27, 2002. About 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.
From March 10, 2003 issue.Iraq I: Support for U.S. Resolution Is Not MaterializingThe chances of the U.N. Security Council approving the U.S.-British-Spanish draft resolution on Iraq did not improve over the weekend, as the United States has still not gained commitments from nine members of the council and Russia explicitly vowed to veto the resolution, according to reports (see GSN, March 7). Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said today that Russia would vote against the resolution that includes a March 17 deadline for Iraq to comply with earlier U.N. resolutions. Ivanov’s statement is the first time Russia has explicitly said it would vote against the resolution. “Russia believes that no further resolutions of the U.N. Security Council are necessary, and therefore Russia openly declares that if [the] draft resolution that currently has been introduced for consideration and which contains demands in an ultimate form that cannot be met is nonetheless put to a vote, then Russia will vote against this resolution,” Ivanov was quoted by Interfax as saying (Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 10). As for getting the nine votes needed to pass a council resolution, “We don’t have it in the bank,” an administration official said, adding that the United States would still continue to push for a vote on the resolution this week. U.S. officials said they still hope that nine of the 15 council members will ultimately decide to support the resolution. Two of the six undecided permanent members, Chile and Guinea, indicated over the weekend, however, that they were not yet ready to give their support, according to the New York Times. In a further attempt to gain backing, the United States is “likely” to agree to define the benchmarks Iraq would have to meet before the deadline to show compliance, although such requirements would likely be described outside the resolution, an administration official said. Some officials also said the March 17 deadline might be extended if that would help increase support. “If somebody comes to us and says, ‘Give us a few more days, and we’ll vote for you,’ it’s something we would have to consider,” an administration official said (Weisman/Barringer, New York Times, March 10). The United States might soon dispatch several senior officials, such as Secretary of State Colin Powell and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, to the undecided council members to try and gain their support, according to the London Independent. “There may well be a need for us to do some travel,” Rice said yesterday on ABC’s This Week (London Independent, March 10). France, which has vigorously opposed any new resolution that would authorize military action against Iraq, has also begun a new round of diplomacy to persuade the undecided council members to oppose the draft resolution, according to CNN.com. French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin has been sent to visit three undecided African council members — Angola, Cameroon and Guinea (CNN.com, March 10). In an apparent countermeasure to de Villepin’s Africa trip, the United Kingdom, a staunch supporter of the U.S. stance on Iraq, has dispatched Baroness Amos, minister for Africa, to Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, according to the BBC (BBC.com, March 10). French President Jacques Chirac has called for an emergency summit of Security Council members in an attempt to develop a compromise solution to the Iraq crisis, his office said Saturday. “War is not a small thing,” Chirac’s office said. “When you declare death or life, this merits being taken to the highest level of responsibility, (where leaders could) think through crisis management,” it added. Powell, however, dismissed the idea, saying there was no need for such a meeting when council members have been expressing their opinions “openly and candidly” (Associated Press/Ha’aretz, March 9). Inspectors Question U.S.-British Evidence Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei told the Security Council Friday that an important piece of evidence that Iraq sought to rebuild its nuclear weapons program appears to be a fraud (see GSN, Jan. 29). Documents that indicated that Iraq attempted to purchase uranium from Niger were determined to be “not authentic” after being examined by U.N. and independent experts, ElBaradei said. The documents, a series of letters between Iraqi agents and Nigerien officials, were given to inspectors by the United Kingdom after prior review by U.S. intelligence. The creators of the documents had made a number of crude errors that signaled their forgery, such as the inclusion of names and titles that did not match the individuals who held office at the time the letters were supposed to have been written, officials said. “We fell for it,” said one U.S. official who reviewed the documents. The IAEA does not fault the United Kingdom or the United States for the forged documents, an agency spokesman said. The documents “were shared with us in good faith,” the spokesman said. In his report, ElBaradei also rejected the claim, often made by U.S. officials, that Iraq had purchased high-strength aluminum tubes for use in a uranium-enrichment program (see GSN, Feb. 6). Investigators had discovered a large number of documents that supported Iraq’s claim that the tubes were for use in a conventional rocket program, ElBaradei said. IAEA centrifuge experts had also concluded the tubes were not suitable for use in centrifuges, he said. “It was highly unlikely that Iraq could have achieved the considerable redesign needed to use them in a revived centrifuge program,” ElBaradei said (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, March 8). White House officials yesterday attempted to counter ElBaradei’s report. On the issue of whether the aluminum tubes were meant for a nuclear program, Powell said, “We still have an open question with respect to that and we see more information from a European country this week that suggests that that is exactly what those tubes were intended to be used for.” The United States had never meant for the claim that Iraq attempted to purchase uranium from Niger to be the sole evidence of a renewed nuclear program, Rice said. “I think you’ll find this has not been cited as a core to our case,” Rice said. “What we’ve said is that we believe the weakness in (Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein’s program is the absence of fissile material and we do not know whether he has acquired fissile material,” she said (Agence France-Presse, March 9). In his briefing Friday to the Security Council, U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix expressed frustration with the quality of intelligence that the United States has provided to inspectors. “I would rather have twice the amount of high-quality information about sites to inspect than twice the number of expert inspectors to send,” Blix said. While the White House has insisted that all relevant information is being given to the inspectors, some officials have privately said the quality and quantity of intelligence is low. “We have some information, not a lot,” a U.S. official said. Some of the information that the CIA has compiled on suspect Iraqi sites is of such low value it would be of little use to the inspectors, a U.S. intelligence official said. “You don’t swamp the U.N. with everything we have ever heard,” the official said (Drogin/Miller, Los Angeles Times, March 8). New Evidence of Iraqi WMD efforts U.N. inspectors have discovered in Iraq a new type of rocket that appears to be configured to disperse bomblets filled with biological and chemical weapons agents, U.S. officials said. The reconfigured rocket warheads appear to be made out of Iraq’s arsenals of imported and indigenous weapons, according to the New York Times. The rocket was discovered in the last few months during the latest round of inspections, a U.S. official said. Iraqi officials first said the weapon was designed as a conventional cluster bomb, but a few days later they said some might have been configured for use with chemical weapons, the U.S. officials said. The appearance of the rocket’s cluster bomblets suggested their use with biological and chemical agents, the U.S. official said. “If you take the kinds of fuses we know they have, and you screw them in there, when these things come out from the main frame and they explode inward, chemical agents come out,” the official said. “These can be used for biological weapons, too,” the official added (Cushman/Weisman, New York Times, March 10). A report circulated by Blix to the Security Council members after his briefing Friday also contained evidence of an undeclared large Iraqi drone, according to the London Times (see GSN, Feb. 6). The drone is believed to be the same one mentioned by Powell during his intelligence presentation to the Security Council on Feb. 5, diplomatic sources said (Bone/Watson, London Times, March 10). The United States and the United Kingdom are expected to call on Blix today to label the drone as a “smoking gun,” according to the Times. The U.S. and British U.N. ambassadors plan to call on Blix to provide more information on the drone — the first undisclosed program discovered by inspectors — than he did during his speech to the council. “It’s incredible,” said a senior diplomat from one of the still-undecided council members. “This report is going to have a clearly defined impact on the people who are wavering. It’s a biggie,” the diplomat added (James Bone, London Times, March 10). Blix’s written report also detailed Iraqi plans to use biological and chemical weapons during the 1991 Gulf War in the event of a U.S. nuclear strike on Baghdad, according to the Los Angeles Times. Hussein authorized Iraqi commanders to launch an attack with 50 al-Hussein missiles armed with chemical weapons and 25 armed with biological weapons in the event of a nuclear strike, the report says. The missiles, which had a range of 400 miles, were deployed at four hidden sites around Baghdad, it says. In the event of a new war with the United States, Hussein has authorized the use of biological and chemical weapons in the event he is either captured or killed, which would place his younger son, Qusay, in power, U.S. intelligence officials said (Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times, March 10). Time Drawing Near ElBaradei today called on Hussein to take distinct steps to demonstrate compliance with inspections. “What’s required is a dramatic change in spirit and sincerity,” ElBaradei said in an interview with the al-Hayat newspaper. “The Iraqi president (could) himself announce on television that he is prepared for complete cooperation and that he is giving directives to all Iraqi officials to cooperate completely and present all the documents they have, or even if they have weapons, to reveal them,” he added. Iraq still has a chance to avoid war, through the door is quickly closing, ElBaradei said. “I still feel that the war is not inevitable. But without doubt we are drawing near,” ElBaradei said. “The two coming weeks will be decisive and the ball is still in Iraq’s court,” he added (Reuters, March 10). Iraq, however, believes it can do nothing now to prevent a war with the United States, Gen. Hossam Mohammed Amin, chief Iraqi liaison to the inspectors, said yesterday. Even so, Iraq would still continue to cooperate with the inspections process in order to derail the latest draft resolution, he said. “We are preparing ourselves for a war, and at the same time we are working to resolve remaining issues” with the inspectors, said Amin, head of the Iraqi National Monitoring Directorate. “There is a probability that the situation will be enhanced by the (support) of other states in the Security Council and the people around the world,” he said (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, March 10). Inspections U.N. inspectors visited at least three suspect Iraqi sites today, according to Reuters. Inspectors traveled to al-Taji to observe the destruction of prohibited al-Samoud 2 missiles (see related GSN story, today). They also traveled to al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range to search for additional R-400 bombs. Inspectors also visited a leather-dyeing factory in Nahrawan, south of Baghdad, said Iraqi Information Ministry official Uday al-Ta’ae (Hassan Hafidh, Reuters, March 10). Yesterday, inspectors visited at least eight suspect Iraqi sites, according to a U.N. press release. Inspectors supervised the destruction of al-Samoud 2 missiles. They also traveled to al-Qa Qaa storage site to verify the tagging of al-Samoud 2 warheads and to inspect the facility’s solid propellant production plant; and to al-Fatah Factory of the Karama State Company to destroy mechanical parts of guidance and control assemblies for al-Samoud 2 missiles, the U.N. release said. Biological experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission traveled to al-Aziziyah Airfield and Firing Range to supervise the transfer of excavated R-400 bombs to a more secure section of the site. UNMOVIC chemical inspectors visited the Tadmur Company for Tanning and Leather Industry. Inspectors also visited areas northwest of the northern city of Kirkuk. IAEA inspectors visited the General Systems Company in central Baghdad. They also conducted a radiation survey inside the buildings of the Jurf al-Naddaf complex, south of Baghdad (U.N. release, March 9). For further information, see:
From March 10, 2003 issue.Iraq II: Summary of InspectionsExperts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have conducted hundreds of inspections in Iraq since resuming the post-Gulf War inspection regime Nov. 27, 2002. About 100 inspectors are now based in the country at two facilities in Baghdad and Mosul. The following chart summarizes some of the inspectors’ recently reported activities.
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