Iraq:  Reports Indicate Hussein Arming Republican Guard with Chemical Weapons

U.S. Army officials have said there is information indicating that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has transferred chemical weapons to the Republican Guard Medina division, currently deployed in defense of Baghdad, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 27).

Intelligence information indicates that Hussein has begun to deploy 155 mm artillery weapons with shells loaded with mustard gas and sarin, officials with the Army’s V Corps said.  Some military officers have said that Hussein had in the last several days also moved such artillery pieces into western Iraq for hiding.

In the event of a chemical weapon attack, U.S. troops might receive some advance notification if satellite photographs showed Iraqi troops wearing chemical protective gear at a weapons site.  Protective suits are usually worn at least one hour before a chemical attack is launched, they said (Bernard Weinraub, New York Times, March 28).

London Says Iraq Ready to Use Weapons

Meanwhile, British troops have found evidence that Iraq is prepared to use chemical weapons, British Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon said yesterday.

“British forces have made significant discoveries in recent days which showed categorically that Iraqi troops are prepared for the use of such horrific weapons,” Hoon said.

British troops operating in southern Iraq have found more than 100 chemical and biological protective suits at an Iraqi command post, said Adm. Michael Boyce, chief of the British armed forces.  The suits, along with discovered documents, are currently being examined, Boyce said (Peter Kononczuk, Agence France-Presse, March 28).

While the find was not “conclusive” proof that Iraq was preparing to use chemical weapons, it did indicate an intention on Hussein’s part to do so, Hoon said.

“It’s clearly indicative of an intention; otherwise why equip his own forces to deal with a threat which he knows we do not have?” Hoon said.  “So it must only be to protect his forces from his own use of those weapons,” he added (Paul Waugh, London Independent, March 28).

Hoon also urged Iraqi commanders to refrain from ordering WMD attacks.

“I want to make it clear that any Iraqi commander who sanctions the use of such weapons of mass destruction is committing a war crime and will be held personally responsible for his action,” Hoon said (Sydney Morning Herald, March 28).

U.S. Troops Will Find Nothing, Former U.N. Inspector Says

A former inspector with the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq has said U.S. troops in Iraq will not find any Iraqi WMD facilities.

“U.S. troops in Iraq will not find any facilities with weapons of mass destruction.  I am sure of that,” the former UNSCOM chemical and biological expert said.

Instead, Iraq is likely to have shut down its WMD operations and is now moving its stockpiles around the country, the former inspector said.  By constantly moving them, it makes it harder for U.S. and British forces to attack them as well as giving Iraq the flexibility to move them where “conditions warrant,” he said.

“They (the weapons) could be in railroad cars, barges or refrigerator trucks.  They are being kept on the move,” the former inspector said.

The recent movement of Iraqi Republican Guard forces near Baghdad south toward U.S. troops could be an attempt to create an optimal situation to use biological or chemical weapons, the former inspector said. 

“If Iraq still has chemical weapons it wants to use, it would want to cause as much damage as possible in one short attack,” the former inspector said.  “Therefore, the U.S. needs to be careful not to amass large numbers of troops in any central location,” he added.

The former inspector said, however, that he believed there was little chance Iraq would actually use chemical or biological weapons.

“My guess is that the probability of a WMD attack is small,” the former inspector said.  “Right now, Saddam has 80 percent of the world supporting him.  If he used WMD, that support would dissolve.  So, he has no incentive.  Even if he did, it would not cause enough damage to change anything.  About the only thing he may accomplish is to scare you reporters,” he added (Stewart Stogel, Time, March 27).

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Iraq:  No Chemical Weapons Found at Captured Najaf Site

U.S. troops have so far found no chemical or biological weapons at a captured ammunition storage site near the Iraqi town of Najaf, which was initially suspected of being a chemical weapons plant, weapons experts and military officers said yesterday (see GSN, March 26).

The site remains suspicious, however, because of indications that chemical or biological weapons might once have been stored at the site, officials said.  For example, an Iraqi general who was captured when U.S. troops took control of the site has told military intelligence analysts that there were special bunkers and underground tunnels at the facility that he and other senior staff were not allowed to enter, they said.

A U.S. military site survey team inspecting the facility has also found a biological hazard sign with a crate in one bunker at the site and found crate markings in another bunker indicating “CN-1,” which is sometimes used to identify riot control agents, according to the New York Times.  The team also found wax on the surface of artillery shell discovered at the site, a substance sometimes used on chemical munitions, the Times reported.

Weapons experts still have not reached a final conclusion as to whether biological or chemical weapons were ever stored at the site.

“We have never conducted a systematic hunt for weapons of mass destruction in a combat situation on such a large scale,” said a weapons expert who has studied the reports filed by the site survey team working at the Najaf site.  “We’re still feeling our way,” the expert said (Judith Miller, New York Times, March 27).

Other weapons experts, acting on intelligence tips, also found no evidence of weapons of mass destruction in ammunition dumps near the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr, the Washington Post reported (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, March 27).

Some experts have said U.S. forces will have difficulty uncovering Iraqi chemical weapons sites, in part, because chemical shells often resemble conventional munitions.  For example, during the 1991 Gulf War, U.S. troops destroyed an Iraqi ammunition dump, only to learn later that chemical shells had been mixed with the conventional ones stored there, said retired Brig. Gen. Walt Busbee.

“Looking at an area that’s the size of California and a terrain that’s readily disposed to hiding stuff, I’m not surprised at all that they haven’t found anything,” Busbee said (Christopher Cooper, Wall Street Journal, March 27).

U.S. weapons experts scouring Iraq for hidden stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons, however, have a number of high-tech tools at their disposal, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

One such device is an ion mobility spectrometer — a battery-powered device about the size of a portable radio, said Ivan Oelrich of the Federation of American Scientists.  The device uses a small air pump to suck in air, which flows over an electric field that measures the mass of different impurities.  If the masses match those of known chemical weapons agents, it can set off an alarm.  If Iraq used unknown agents to produce chemical weapons, however, then the device would probably not work, Oelrich said.

In addition, experts searching a specific site could use handheld devices known as “smart tickets” to test for biological agents, said Calvin Chue of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Civilian Biodefense.  The device uses an anthrax antibody to determine if the bacterium is present by analyzing material on a swab, he said (Faye Flam, Philadelphia Inquirer, March 27).

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Threat Assessment:  FBI Warns of Crude Chemical Attacks

The FBI warned U.S. law enforcement agencies yesterday that terrorists could use readily available materials to manufacture crude chemical weapons (see GSN, Dec. 30, 2002).

Toxic substances, such as hydrogen cyanide or chlorine gas, could be produced by combining liquid and solid materials, the FBI said in its weekly intelligence bulletin.  Terrorists could make a crude device to combine such materials through the use of a pierced paint can and a blasting cap or time-delay switch, the bureau said.

“When combined, this creates the toxic gas that would emerge through the holes,” the FBI said.  “Little or no training is required to assemble and deploy such a device due to its simplicity,” it added.

While the FBI alert did not provide any information on a specific threat, it did warn that terrorists could use a building’s ventilation system, air intakes or other enclosed areas to conduct chemical attacks (see GSN, May 14, 2002).  A crude chemical weapon would be most effective in these areas, because the toxic substances would be dispersed too quickly in larger areas or outside to have much effect, the bulletin said (Curt Anderson, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 27).

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Iraq:  U.S. Marines Find Chemical Protective Gear at Nasiriya Hospital

U.S. Marines yesterday discovered more than 3,000 chemical protective suits at a captured hospital in the Iraqi city of Nasiriya, U.S. authorities said (see GSN, March 25).

After capturing the hospital, Marines found the chemical protective gear, along with more than 200 weapons, Iraqi military uniforms and a T-55 tank in the hospital’s compound, the U.S. Central Command said.  The operation also resulted in the capture of about 170 Iraqi prisoners of war, according to Central Command (CNN.com, March 25).

In addition to the chemical protective gear, U.S. troops also found a number of atropine injectors, used to administer a nerve gas antidote (Matt Kelly, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 26).

U.S. Marines believe that Iraqi soldiers dressed as civilians have been transported into Nasiriya to attack U.S. troops there, said Col. Ron Johnson, operations officer for Marine Task Force Tarawa.  The Iraqi soldiers are believed to have taken weapons and ammunition from the hospital before entering the city, he said (CNN.com).

The find has increased concerns that Iraq might be planning to use chemical weapons against U.S. troops, Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks said today.

“What we found at the hospital reinforces our concern,” Brooks said.  “We are well-prepared to deal with the potential use of chemical weapons,” he added (Associated Press/Jerusalem Post, March 26).

U.S. Army Team Searches Najaf Chemical Plant

Meanwhile, a U.S. Army sensitive site survey team yesterday searched a captured chemical plant in Najaf, where Iraq is suspected of producing chemical weapons production, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Lt. Robert Naspaugh, who managed the inspection, said preliminary inspections did not find any evidence of weapons of mass destruction.

“We did not get indicators that there are weapons of mass destruction at the site right now,” Naspaugh said.  “However we only saw a small part of the site,” he added.

The team did find a large number of artillery shells, as well as chemical protective gear, at the plant, according to the Post.  Naspaugh said that once his team has given its assessment of the plant to superiors, a decision will be made on whether to send in more personnel to take samples for laboratory testing to further determine if the site was used to produce chemical weapons.

“We will make our assessment of the complex to higher-ups,” Naspaugh said.  “They will decide whether to send in another team that will come and take samples back to a laboratory that will use a gold standard.  The only person who will announce such a finding is the president or the prime minister,” he said (Caroline Glick, Jerusalem Post, March 26).

Threat of Iraqi CW Attacks

U.S. intelligence indicates as U.S. and British forces move closer toward Baghdad, they will face a greater probability of experiencing chemical weapons attacks, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday.

There have been “intelligence scraps” indicating “that the closer that coalition forces get to Baghdad and Tikrit, the greater the likelihood” such attacks will occur, Rumsfeld said.  These reports also indicate “some command and control arrangements have been put in place” for chemical weapons to be used, he added (Timothy Phelps, Newsday, March 26).

Iraqi military planners, however, have given no sign that there is any kind of “red line” around Baghdad, that if crossed by U.S. and British troops, would trigger chemical weapons attacks, according to the Financial Times.

There has been no specific intelligence received that indicates that Iraqi Republican Guard units have been given this kind of command, a senior Western intelligence official said yesterday.  The official said that any suggestion of an Iraqi automatic use order “is completely hypothetical.”

“It’s not as if we know from the Iraqis that there are red lines around Baghdad,” the official said (Mark Huband, Financial Times, March 26).

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Iraq:  Baghdad Might Be Preparing Chemical Attack

Iraq may be waiting to use its suspected stockpiles of chemical weapons until U.S. forces approach Baghdad, senior Bush administration officials said yesterday, noting that recently captured Iraqi soldiers have been found with gas masks.  Iraq might also attempt to blame the United States for any chemical weapons use, the officials said (see related GSN story, today).

U.S. intelligence also indicates that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has authorized the use of chemical weapons against Shiite Muslims in the south of Iraq, Bush administration officials said, adding that there were no signs yet than such an attack is imminent.

“There are such reports,” U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said.  “I have no doubt that he would do such a thing if he thought it served his interest.  And so we are concerned about it,” he added (David Sanger, New York Times, March 25).

Najaf Chemical Plant

No evidence of weapons of mass destruction has so far been found at a chemical plant near the southern Iraqi town of Najaf that was recently captured by U.S. forces, Pentagon officials said yesterday (see GSN, March 24).  While the buildings at the plant appeared to be camouflaged, the site was probably abandoned some time ago, a Pentagon official said.

Two Iraqi facilities described last year in a CIA report on Iraq’s WMD efforts are in areas currently under U.S. and British control — one in Nasiriya and one in al-Khamisiya, according to the Financial Times.  No evidence has been found, however, of WMD production at either site (Mark Huband, Financial Times, March 25).

Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz yesterday played down the possible significance of the Najaf plant, saying it had been previously visited by U.N. weapons inspectors.

“It’s just a small and isolated factory used for civilian purposes,” Aziz said (Sharon Behn, Washington Times, March 25).

WMD Hunt

Meanwhile, the United States has begun a secret mission to locate the archives of the Mukhabarat, the Iraqi intelligence service, U.S. officials said (see GSN, Feb. 4).

U.S. special operations forces are conducting the mission to find and secure Iraqi intelligence documents, sources said.  The archives are believed to contain information outlining the entirety of Iraq’s suspected war crimes, links to terrorist organizations, possible WMD locations and efforts to purchase weapons from around the world, according to the Washington Times.

“One of the targets of special (operations) in this war is to get the raw Iraqi intelligence files — the archives,” a U.S. official said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said he believes U.S. special forces will be successful in their search. 

“You never know if you will find the files.  We have information that they have been dispersing their documentation files, putting them in private homes, burying things, and trying to avoid being caught in that,” Rumsfeld said.  “But I suspect we will,” he added (Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times, March 25).

With the war in Iraq almost one-week-old, U.S.-led forces have still found no signs of Iraqi WMD, according to USA Today.

Bush administration officials and experts have said, however, that there are several reasons why no Iraqi chemical or biological weapons have been discovered.  For example, U.S. air superiority has negated Iraq’s ability to conduct airstrikes with such weapons, believed to be the most accurate delivery method.  In addition, if Iraq does possess chemical and biological stockpiles they are likely to be kept close to Baghdad, and not in the southern part of the country where most of the fighting to date has occurred, according to experts.

“To find this stuff, you’ll probably have to get people in the production network to take you to sites where it’s well hidden,” said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.  “To run into one of them in the middle of the desert is probably not going to be very likely,” he added.

Hussein might also believe that international opinion might help force the United States to the negotiating table, and that if he were to use weapons of mass destruction, such support might evaporate, according to experts.  Because of this, Hussein might not choose to use chemical or biological weapons unless the war looks all but lost.

“If they use them, they’d have to admit they have them,” said former arms inspector Jonathan Tucker.  “If they do use them, it will be a last-ditch effort in which they throw the kitchen sink at advancing forces,” he added (Bill Nichols, USA Today, March 25).

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France:  Ricin Discovery Shows Potential Al-Qaeda Link

The discovery last week of ricin at a French rail station shows that al-Qaeda chemical warfare experts are operating in France, according to an official from the French anti-terrorist unit, DST (see GSN, March 21).

“Although no trace of ricin has been found on French territory before, the discovery of it at the Gare de Lyon seems to indicate that al-Qaeda specialists in chemical attacks are still in France — or were here only a few days ago,” the official said.

The train station chemicals appear to be similar to those needed for a ricin “recipe” that has been linked to al-Qaeda.

Authorities are investigating a link between the ricin and a cell of Islamic militants known as the “Chechen network,” the London Telegraph reported Sunday.

“There are suggestions of a link, even though we have no definite proof,” said Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s interior minister.

DST is reportedly pursuing a group of militants who are “veterans of the Chechen and Afghan conflicts who had returned to the European scene who are thought to be working on a project to fabricate and acquire toxic materials in preparation for a chemical or biological attack,” according to DST report.

A member of this network, Mirouane Ben Ahmed, has been linked to Rabah Kadre, who was arrested by British authorities this year in connection to a ricin discovery in London.

“There was evidence from the London raid that the equivalent of two small pots of ricin were missing.  Clearly we have to look at the link between the Islamic extremists in Britain and those in France, who certainly knew each other,” a French official said (Kim Willsher, London Telegraph, March 23).

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Iraq:  U.S. Forces Capture Possible Chemical Weapons Plant

U.S. troops yesterday captured a possible chemical weapons plant in the Iraqi town of Najaf, about 250 kilometers south of Baghdad, according to the Jerusalem Post (see GSN, March 19).

About 70 Iraqi soldiers, including a general, surrendered at the plant to troops from the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division.  While it is still unknown exactly what chemicals were produced at the site, there were indications that Iraq took steps to camouflage the facility against aerial photography, such as using sand-cast walls to blend the plant in with the surrounding desert terrain, the Post reported (Caroline Glick, Jerusalem Post, March 24).

U.S. forces have questioned two captured senior Iraqi officers about chemical weapons, Lt. Gen. John Abizaid said.  “We have two Iraqi general officers that we have taken prisoner and they are providing us with information,” he said.

If the captured plant is found to have been involved in chemical weapons production, it could result in a large political victory for the Bush administration, said former U.N. weapons inspector Scott Ritter.  “If it’s true, it legitimizes in one fell swoop the entire Bush administration position vis-a-vis Iraq,” he said.

Ritter also said, however, that he doubted that Iraq would build a chemical weapons plant in a Shiite Muslim area traditionally hostile to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (Teather/Burkeman, London Guardian, March 24).

The U.S. Defense Department has sought to play down the early reports of the purported chemical weapons plant capture, saying the site is still being investigated.

“Media reports are premature,” the U.S. Central Command said in a statement.  “We are looking into sites of interest,” it added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, March 24).

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