North Korea:  Seoul Suggests Gas Pipeline in Exchange for Peace

On the eve of a diplomatic mission to Russia and China, a senior South Korean official has proposed a new plan to end North Korea’s nuclear activities by offering Pyongyang a gas pipeline from Russia, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, March 28).

Ra Jong-yil, South Korea’s national security adviser, said the United States and private interests could cover the cost of the pipeline in exchange for the verifiable dismantling of nuclear facilities.  The multibillion-dollar pipeline could also be extended to South Korea, Ra said.

“Gas could be drawn from either Irkutsk (Siberia) or Sakhalin (east Russia),” he said.

The proposal is not yet fully developed, Ra said, acknowledging that neither North Korea nor Seoul’s allies have been consulted yet.

Ra said the gas pipeline could supply Pyongyang with much-needed energy and allow North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to abandon his nuclear program, which North Korean officials insist is needed to produce electricity.  U.S. officials have alleged that the nuclear program is a front to develop nuclear weapons (Andrew Ward, Financial Times, March 31).

Ra is scheduled to travel to Moscow and Beijing this week to push a peaceful resolution to the nuclear crisis.

“The national security adviser plans to exchange opinions with both countries on the North Korean nuclear problem and political issues regarding the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” according to a statement from President Roh Moo-hyun’s office (Samuel Len, Reuters, March 30).

Powell Meets Yoon

Meanwhile at a meeting Friday in Washington, South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell discussed ways to establish a common strategy to find a peaceful resolution to the North Korean nuclear crisis, officials said.

“We offered suggestions on an item-by-item basis for pursuing multilateral talks, and I think our views will be reflected,” Yoon said.

Powell said Yoon offered “an interesting approach which we will be examining” (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, March 30).

Pyongyang, meanwhile, criticized the current U.S. conflict with Iraq.  North Korean officials have questioned whether their country will soon be engaged in military conflict with the United States, Reuters reported.

“The arrogant and outrageous behavior of the U.S. that adopted it as its national policy to kill the state leader of another country is typical state terrorism that can never be tolerated,” a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said (Len, Reuters).

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U.S.-Russia:  Washington Backs Venture to Employ Russian Nuclear Scientists

The United States will provide up to $25 million in insurance for a California company that plans to hire former Russian nuclear weapons experts to build medical equipment, Energy Daily reported today (see GSN, March 13).

The U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation last week said it would provide risk insurance to Numotech for its business venture with Spektr Conversiya, which employs former Russian weapons technicians.  The business initiative could create 433 jobs in Russia and provide a boost to U.S. Energy Department nonproliferation efforts, Energy Daily reported.

The project is part of the Energy Department’s Russian Transition Initiatives program (Energy Daily, March 31).

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Iraq:  Some CIA Officials Knew Niger Documents Were False, Former U.S. Intelligence Official Says

A former high-level U.S. intelligence official has said that some in the CIA knew that a set of documents purporting to show an attempt by Iraq to purchase uranium from Niger were false, the New Yorker reported this week (see GSN, March 24).

Previous reports said CIA officials doubted the veracity of the Nigerien documents, which Bush cited in his State of the Union address in January as an example of Iraq seeking weapons of mass destruction, but some senior CIA officials knew the documents were actually fraudulent, the former U.S. intelligence official said.

“It’s not a question as to whether they were marginal.  They can’t be ‘sort of’ bad, or ‘sort of’ ambiguous,” the official said.  “They knew it was a fraud — it was useless,” the official added.

Some analysts at the U.S. Energy Department and the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research questioned the authenticity of the Nigerien documents, a former U.S. intelligence officer said.  These questions, however, were ignored before the documents became part of the public evidence that Iraq was attempting to develop nuclear weapons, according to the New Yorker.

“Somebody deliberately let something false get in there,” the former high-level intelligence official said.  “It could not have gotten into the system without the agency being involved.  Therefore it was an internal intention.  Someone set someone up,” the official added (Seymour Hersh, New Yorker, March 31).

The increasing reports that the Nigerien documents were fraudulent have led to the FBI launching an investigation into the issue and have caused some members of Congress to question their support for the war (see GSN, March 13).

In a letter to U.S. President George W. Bush dated March 17, Representative Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) said the claim that Iraq had sought uranium from Niger was one of the reasons why he supported a congressional resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq.  He noted, however, that even the CIA never regarded the claim as reliable.

“The implications of this fact are profound,” Waxman said in his letter.  “It means that a key part of the case you have been building against Iraqi is evidence that your own intelligence experts at the Central Intelligence Agency do not believe is credible,” he said (Waxman release, March 17).

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North Korea:  China Puts Pressure on Pyongyang

In contrast to the historically cooperative relationship between China and North Korea, China has lately exerted diplomatic and financial pressure on North Korea to back off its nuclear ambitions, the Baltimore Sun reported today (see GSN, March 26).

China has sent diplomatic messages urging Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program and last month Beijing temporarily halted fuel deliveries to North Korea, according to reports (see GSN, March 19).

“When you talk with Chinese officials, ask them, ‘Are you OK with nuclear weapons in Taiwan?  In Japan?’” said Park Syung-je, a North Korea expert at the Institute for Peace Affairs in Seoul.  “I don’t think so,” he added.

During a meeting in Beijing last month, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi asked North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun to calm his country’s antagonistic behavior, according to two veteran diplomatic sources.  Wang said that if Pyongyang did not change its ways China would drop its resistance to economic sanctions, according to the Sun.

Chinese scholars who questioned the wisdom in standing by a belligerent North Korea might have pushed Beijing’s new stance.

“We can’t afford to shield North Korea any longer,” Zhu Feng, an international security expert at Beijing University, said last month.  “There is an increasing recognition here if North Korea is finally armed with nuclear weapons, it will be a big threat to China,” Zhu added (Gady Epstein, Baltimore Sun, March 28).

Maurice Strong, an envoy of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, said that North Korea is not in any rush to resolve the nuclear crisis.  Strong returned recently from four days of talks in Pyongyang and he said North Koreans are tense and the country is “preparing for war.”

Japanese and South Korean officials have dismissed such assertions as reflecting North Korean propaganda, the Christian Science Monitor reported today.

“It is a paradox.  The view in North Korea is that time is on their side,” Strong said of his recent talks.  “We expressed the counterview — that in fact time is not on their (North Korea’s) side.  I’m not sure time is on anyone’s side.  The North says it is willing to abandon its program, that it doesn’t want to test weapons.  Yet they claim the capability to reprocess plutonium and the right to test missiles, and say they may do so if they determine it is in their interest, until serious talks are offered.  The core paradox is that neither side says it feels any urgency; at the same time, the situation is deteriorating.  The longer it takes, the more risks are involved,” he added (Robert Marquand, Christian Science Monitor, March 28).

In a recent formal communication to North Korea, the United States proposed convening a multilateral summit, the Washington Times reported, and U.S. officials are also working on a U.N. measure to urge North Korea to end its nuclear activities.  China is delaying the U.N. measure, however, which would come in the form of a statement and not a formal resolution, the Washington Times reported (see GSN, March 14).

“We have broad support in the Security Council and it’s just a matter of time when the statement will be issued,” a U.S. administration official said.  “China doesn’t object to it, but it would like first to hear back from the North Koreans,” the official added (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, March 28).

Backchannels Continue

At a security conference this month in Berkeley, Calif., North Korean envoys said they wanted to end the nuclear crisis and they maintained the standoff is being fueled by Bush administration rhetoric.  Led by U.N. Ambassador Han Song Ryol, North Korea’s delegation held discussions with low-level U.S. State Department officials, conference organizers said.

North Korea has also invited a group from the Council on Foreign Relations to visit Pyongyang next month.  Trip participants, scheduled to visit Pyongyang April 19-20, would include former U.S. ambassador to South Korea James Laney and former senior U.S. diplomat Morton Abramowitz.

The White House has granted the group permission to visit, but said it does not expect results.

“We have no illusions about what might be accomplished,” said a person involved in the trip.  “It’s an opportunity to see where they stand,” the person added (Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, March 28).

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Iran:  U.S. Criticism of Russian Nuclear Aid Is Unfair, Rumyantsev Says

Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev has accused the United States of being hypocritical in its criticism of Russia for aiding Iran’s nuclear program while ignoring similar activities by Western countries, Reuters reported today (see GSN, March 13).

“We also have complaints against the United States,” Rumyantsev said.  “It is always criticizing us, but its close economic partners supply Iran with sensitive technology,” he added (Reuters/Planet Ark, March 28).

Rumyantsev has said he was concerned about recent reports that a gas centrifuge, recently found during an International Atomic Energy Agency inspection, was similar to those produced by the British company Urenco, according to the London Guardian.  The centrifuge could be used to enrich uranium for both civilian and military purposes. 

“According to specialists, such equipment could not be produced by Iran itself and it is similar to that which Urenco has produced,” a spokesman for Rumyantsev said.

Urenco, however, has denied that it produced centrifuges for Iran (Nick Paton Walsh, London Guardian, March 28).

Iran yesterday denied that it had purchased uranium-enrichment equipment from Western companies.

“The nuclear activities of the Islamic Republic are indigenous and Iran uses its own know-how and possibilities,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said (Moscow Times, March 28).

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U.S.-Russia:  Russia Will Continue to Limit Access to Nuclear Sites, Rumyantsev Says

Russia will continue to block international access to some of its nuclear sites, Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev said yesterday, citing national security reasons (see GSN, March 24).

Restricted access to sites containing Russian nuclear materials has delayed the installation of improved security measures, a recent U.S. congressional report said.  Rumyantsev, however, said some sites would continue to be off-limits, noting that Russia has already provided levels of access that would have been unknown during the Soviet era.

“As for access by representatives of other countries to our sites where nuclear materials are located, we will not show all sites.  And where the arrangement of these installations [is] confidential, we will not display them for international observation,” Rumyantsev said.  “It is a question linked to our defensive capability,” he added (Associated Press/Moscow Times, March 27).

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Russia:  Strategic Missile Forces Test ICBM

Russia flight-tested an 18-year-old SS-25 ICBM today from the northwestern base Plesetsk, Agence France-Presse reported.

Officials fired the long-range missile, also known as the Topol, at the Kamchatka Peninsula, but said the test had nothing to do with Russian unhappiness over the U.S.-led attack on Iraq.

“This has nothing to do with it.  It has nothing to do with Iraq,” said a Russian Strategic Missile Forces officer.  “This has been in the planning for months,” the officer added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, March 27).

The missile was launched from a mobile unit, the Associated Press reported today (Associated Press, March 27).

The Topol hit the target in Kamchatka with “designed accuracy,” according to the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (ITAR-Tass, March 27).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Cuts Off Contact With U.N. Command

North Korea today cut off its regular contact with the U.S.-led U.N. Command, which is responsible for ensuring the divided Korean Peninsula’s armistice.  Pyongyang said U.S. forces may be planning to attack North Korea (see GSN, March 25).

The North Korean army told the U.N. Command in a telephone message that it will no longer attend meetings held almost weekly since the three-year Korean War ended without a formal peace agreement in 1953.

“It is meaningless to sit together with the U.S. forces side to discuss any issue as long as it remains arrogant,” read a North Korean statement.  Vowing to increase defenses, North Korea said U.S. forces are trying to foment a “second Iraqi crisis.”

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun called North Korea’s claims of an imminent U.S. attack “groundless.”

“There will be no war on the Korean Peninsula as long as we do not want war,” said Roh, who pointed to Washington’s promise to peacefully resolve the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear activities.

U.N. envoy Maurice Strong said that in his meetings last week in Pyongyang, North Korean officials told him they “reserved the right” to reprocess spent nuclear fuel rods.  Experts believe the material could be used to produce enough plutonium for several atomic bombs in a matter of months.

The U.N. Command had no immediate comment on North Korea’s latest move (Associated Press/MSNBC.com, March 26).

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U.S.-Russia:  Russian Foreign Minister Supports Moscow Treaty Ratification Delay

Russia should wait until the U.S.-led war in Iraq is resolved to begin the ratification process of the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said today (see GSN, March 19).

“Maybe now is not the right moment psychologically to bring this document up for ratification,” Ivanov told members of the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian Parliament.  “If we wait for some time, and concentrate all our efforts on ending the war and switching over to a political settlement (of the Iraq crisis), then at a more quiet moment we can quickly deal with this issue,” he added.

Ivanov said his support for delaying the treaty’s ratification did not mean he opposed the treaty itself.

“This treaty answers Russia’s interests.  The Foreign Ministry believes that this document should be ratified and we will present it for a ratification,” Ivanov said (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 26).

For further information, see:

U.S.-Russia Nuclear Reduction Treaty Text (U.S. State Department)

Bush Announces Moscow Treaty

U.S. State Department Fact Sheet on Moscow Treaty

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Pakistan:  China Signs on to Build New Pakistani Power Plant

Pakistan and China yesterday signed a memorandum of understanding for China to help build a nuclear power plant in the Pakistani city of Chasma (see GSN, Oct. 29, 2002).

The two countries plan to sign a formal agreement soon on China’s aid to build the 300-megawatt reactor, said Pervez Butt, chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.  The plant is expected to be constructed within six years, Butt added (Business Recorder, March 25).

As a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, China must ensure that any facility sold to a non-NPT state, such as Pakistan, would be subject to International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, according to Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  He said it could be assumed the planned facility will be placed under such safeguards because of the publicity surrounding its construction.  In addition, a reactor already operating at Chasma is subject to IAEA safeguards, according to Carnegie’s nonproliferation reference book, Deadly Arsenals:  Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction.

In a similar case, Russia has agreed to assist Pakistan’s South Asian rival India in the construction of the Kudankulam nuclear plant (see GSN, Feb. 14).  This aid is more controversial, however, because Russia, in addition to being an NPT member, is a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which establishes more rigorous nonproliferation guidelines, Wolfsthal said.  NSG guidelines prevent exporters from transferring nuclear technology to a country that has not accepted IAEA safeguards on all of its nuclear facilities, instead of on a site-by-site basis.  Russia has argued that its nuclear aid contracts with India were signed before the full-scope guidelines came into effect and therefore should be “grandfathered” in; a claim the United States has opposed, Wolfsthal said.

In contrast, China is not a NSG member, Wolfsthal said, adding that a country cannot violate an export control regime to which it is not a member (Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, March 25).

For further information, see:

Nuclear Suppliers Group

NPT Text

States Parties to the NPT (U.N.)

U.N. Background on NPT

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North Korea:  Seoul’s Foreign Minister to Seek Common Ground on U.S. Visit

South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan said he plans to use his visit to Washington this week to pursue a joint approach to the North Korean nuclear crisis (see GSN, March 24).  Yoon was scheduled to leave Seoul today for a four-day visit.

Yoon also said that a planned meeting this year between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and U.S. President George W. Bush would be of “fundamental importance” to the countries’ relationship.

“I hope through my meetings with various high-level officials in charge of foreign policy and national security, our two sides will be able to coordinate and devise a common strategy for the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue,” Yoon said today.

Yoon also said that he plans to discuss changes to the size and positioning of the U.S. military force in South Korea (Reuters/MSNBC.com, March 26).

Yoon is scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and members of Congress, the Korea Herald reported.

“Minister Yoon will brief U.S. officials and politicians on President Roh Moo-hyun’s North Korea policy and call for their support for inter-Korea reconciliation,” a Foreign Ministry official said (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, March 26).

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