Iraq:  Baghdad Destroys 16 Al-Samoud 2 Missiles

Iraq yesterday destroyed six of its banned al-Samoud 2 missiles, bringing the total number of destroyed missiles since Saturday to 16, according to an International Atomic Energy press release (see GSN, March 3).  Iraqi technicians yesterday also completed the destruction of a casting chamber and began the destruction of a second chamber, scheduled to be completed today (IAEA release, March 3).

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Iraq:  Missile Destruction Begins, at Least Seven Planned for Today

Iraq is set to destroy at least seven of its banned al-Samoud 2 missiles today, bringing the total destroyed since Saturday to 17.  Iraqi officials warned, however, that the destruction effort could stop if the United States continues to press for war (see GSN, Feb. 28).

Iraq plans to destroy between seven and nine of the missiles today, said Odai al-Taie, an official in the Iraq Information Ministry (Bassem Mroue, Associated Press/Yahoo.com, March 3). 

Iraq destroyed six missiles yesterday in the presence of U.N. inspectors, in addition to four Saturday, said Iraqi presidential adviser Gen. Amir Saadi.  He added that Iraq hoped to continue that pace over the next several days.  Iraq has about 100 operational al-Samoud 2 missiles and another 20 in various stages of construction, Saadi said.  At the current rate of destruction, it should take about three weeks for Iraq to destroy all of the banned missiles, according to the Washington Post (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, March 3).

The missiles are being destroyed at the Taji military site, north of Baghdad, according to the Los Angeles Times.  Iraqi officials have refused to allow reporters to observe the destruction, saying pictures of the event would hurt many Iraqis personally.

Showing the missile destruction “would be in the interest of Iraq” to demonstrate its willingness to comply with U.N. orders, Saadi said.  “But from previous experience, we know such pictures would be painful to the Iraqi people,” he said.

Saadi warned, however, that Iraq could stop destroying the missiles if the United States continued to plan to invade without U.N. approval.

“If it turns out during an early stage this month that America is not going the legal way, then why should we continue?” he asked (Joyn Daniszewski, Los Angeles Times, March 3).

Iraq began the missile destruction effort on Saturday, when it destroyed the first group of four by crushing them with a bulldozer, according to the New York Times.  The United Nations would have preferred that the missiles were destroyed with explosives, but Iraq choose to crush them, said Demetrius Perricos, deputy U.N. weapons inspector. 

Iraq also began destroying Saturday one of the two casting chambers used to produce solid rocket propellant and engines for other short-range missiles, Perricos said.

“All the missiles that are presently deployed, all the missiles in a state where they are ready to be deployed and all the parts and components are also to be destroyed,” he said (Neil MacFarquahar, New York Times, March 2).

U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix Friday praised Iraq’s decision to abide by the U.N. order to destroy the al-Samoud 2 missiles, saying Iraq’s action represented “a very significant piece of real disarmament” (U.N. release, Feb. 28).

Iraqi Murder Mystery

Meanwhile, Western intelligence agencies are investigating claims that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ordered the murder of a senior missile engineer to prevent him from speaking with U.N. inspectors, according to the London Telegraph.

Gen. Muhammad Sa’id al-Darraj, who led Iraq’s mobile Scud missile force until three months ago, died a day after meeting with Iraqi officials, according to Arab newspaper reports.  The purpose of the meeting was to discuss how al-Darraj would conceal what he knew of Iraq’s missile efforts if interviewed by inspectors, the Telegraph reported.

Al-Darraj reportedly told relatives that he had been given a poisoned drink during the meeting, which took place at one of Hussein’s presidential palaces, according to the Telegraph.

British officials said yesterday that they were attempting to verify the claim (Wastell/Coman, London Telegraph, March 2).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Fires Anti-Ship Missile

North Korea fired a short-range, anti-ship missile yesterday into the Sea of Japan, officials said (see GSN, Feb. 13).  While the move appeared to be designed to disrupt the inauguration of South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, South Korean and U.S. officials played down the event.

The cruise missile flew for about 30 miles before sinking into the Sea of Japan, officials said.  They added that the missile did not appear to be a multi-stage system capable of traveling long distances.

The launch appeared to coincide with Roh’s inauguration, which is scheduled for today, according to the Washington Post.  U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi both traveled to Seoul for the event.

“This certainly is not a congratulatory message.  It is part of a detailed and calculated move to escalate this crisis,” said Paik Jin-hyun, a professor of international law at Seoul National University (Doug Struck, Washington Post, Feb. 25).

Powell described the missile launch as “fairly innocuous” and “not surprising.”  U.S. officials had known that such a launch would happen, he said (BBC News, Feb. 25).

“This is something that they test periodically,” a U.S. official said (Howard French, New York Times, Feb. 25).

Did the North End its Moratorium?

Experts disagreed on whether the test indicated North Korea was ending the self-imposed missile testing moratorium it has adhered to since 1998 (see GSN, Jan. 13).

“Strictly speaking, this is a violation of the missile moratorium,” said Yasuhiko Yoshida, a North Korean expert at Osaka University for Economics, but Seoul professor Paik said the test moratorium only applied to missiles with ranges greater than 180 miles.

There is also some confusion as to the exact type of missile North Korea launched yesterday, according to reports.  A White House official identified the missile as a Styx, an anti-ship missile first developed by the Soviet Union in the 1950s (Struck, Washington Post).  Japanese media, however, described the missile as a Chinese-developed Silkworm, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, Jan. 22).

China today denied that it had exported to North Korea the missile used in yesterday’s launch, calling such reports “groundless.”

“Regardless of whether they allude to or directly say these missiles are China’s, made in China or made with Chinese technology, all such reports are extremely irresponsible and groundless,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said.  Noting China’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile export controls, Kong added, “In this area, China is a very responsible country.  Under these circumstances, we are firmly opposed to anyone spreading these groundless and irresponsible comments” (see GSN, Nov. 15, 2002; Agence France-Presse, Feb. 25).

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Iraq:  Hussein Indicates He Will Not Destroy Al-Samoud 2 Missiles

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein suggeseted in television interview excerpts shown yesterday that he will not destroy his stockpile of al-Samoud 2 missiles, which the United Nations has order him to do (see GSN, Feb. 24).

U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix has ordered Hussein to destroy the missiles, which have been determined to have flight ranges beyond U.N. mandates, by the end of the week.  In an interview with CBS, however, Hussein maintained that Iraq is “allowed” to keep the missiles.

“Iraq is allowed to prepare proper missiles and we are committed to that,” CBS quoted Hussein as saying.  When asked if the al-Samoud 2 missiles could be considered “proper,” he replied, “We do not have missiles that go beyond the proscribed range.”

Senior Iraqi officials said today that a decision has not been made on whether to destroy the missiles.  “It’s being studied,” Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said during a meeting with Egyptian officials.       

The United Nations has said that the destruction order cannot be negotiated, according to the Associated Press.  Blix said he was sending his chief deputy, Demetrius Perricos, to Baghdad to discuss the pace of the destruction.

“We have set the date for the commencement of the destruction of these missiles and we expect that to be respected,” Blix said.  “There will be a discussion about the pace of the destruction and Mr. Perricos, as my deputy, will be there for that purpose,” he added.      

U.S. President George W. Bush will not be satisfied even if Hussein does comply with the U.N. order, said White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, noting that stockpiles of chemical weapons were still missing.

“This is not about public relations.  This is about protecting the lives of the American people,” Fleischer said.  “If Saddam Hussein destroys the missiles that he said he never had ... you’ve got to wonder what other weapons does he have?” he added.

In his interview with CBS news anchor Dan Rather, Hussein challenged Bush to a debate, to be held via satellite linkup, the network said. 

“I am ready to conduct a direct dialogue — a debate — with your president,” CBS quoted Saddam as saying.  “I will say what I want and he will say what he wants,” he added (Associated Press/MSNBC.com, Feb. 25).

Missiles Part of Larger Effort, Analysts Say

Meanwhile, analysts have said that the al-Samoud 2 missile, while not posing a major threat by itself, could be part of efforts to develop a longer-range missile, which is why the United Nations has ordered its destruction.

“The real problem with al-Samoud isn’t the missile’s marginal violation on United Nations restrictions, but the fact it is part of a far larger program to acquire long-range methods of attacking neighbors with weapons of mass destruction,” said Loren Thompson, an analyst with the Lexington Institute.  “If Iraq were to fully realize its goals for that program, it would acquire a fearsome capability that would largely nullify the U.S. military advantage,” Thompson said.

In its current one-stage configuration, the al-Samoud 2 is not much of a threat, said former U.N. missile inspector Timothy McCarthy, adding that its purpose is to be used as a second-stage missile.  In that configuration, the missile would have the ability to hit targets in most of Turkey, all of Israel and in the Persian Gulf down to the Straits of Hormuz, said former Pentagon official Richard Speier.

It would take Iraq time, however, to modify the current al-Samoud 2 into a two-stage missile, analysts said.  “To go from here to there is not an insignificant battle,” McCarthy said (Guynn/Tamayo, Miami Herald, Feb. 25).

United States Attacks Missile Systems

Meanwhile, U.S. aircraft today attacked three Iraqi surface-to-surface missile systems located just south of the northern city of Mosul, the U.S. European Command said in a press statement.

“The coalition carried out today’s strike after Iraqi forces moved the mobile surface-to-surface missile systems above the 36th parallel — inside the northern no-fly zone — and in range to threaten coalition forces,” the statement said (Associated Press/USA Today, Feb. 25).

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Iraq:  Baghdad Considering U.N. Order to Destroy Missile Program

A top Iraqi official said today that Baghdad wants to negotiate the U.N. order to destroy its al-Samoud 2 missiles, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 21).

Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix delivered a letter Friday demanding that Iraq begin to destroy all its al-Samoud 2 missiles by March 1.  A panel of U.N. experts found that the missile’s range exceeds the 150-kilometer set by post-Gulf War U.N. resolutions.

“This is being studied very carefully and the channels are still open” between Iraq and the United Nations, Lt. Gen. Amer al-Saadi said Monday.  “We will come up with a decision quite soon,” he added.

“There is an open dialogue between us and (the weapons inspectors) and we hope that it will be settled,” al-Saadi said.

The top Iraqi liaison to the weapons inspectors said last night that the missiles, in their final forms, will not exceed the 150-kilometer limit.

“The missile was and is still being researched and developed and hasn’t reached its final stage.  The weights are not final,” Lt. Gen. Hossam Mohamed Amin said.  “We have suggested to (the inspectors) that they randomly choose any missile they want and check its range.  We are sure its range will be less,” he added.

Amin said Iraq was waiting for a response from chief U.N. inspector Hans Blix after Baghdad sent him a letter asking that he reconsider his order to destroy the missiles.  A U.N. official in Baghdad, however, said that Blix had answered by ordering the missiles destroyed by the end of this week.

“This is not negotiable,” the official said.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan said that he expects Baghdad to comply with the order.

“If they refused to destroy the weapons, the Security Council will have to make a decision,” Annan said.  “I don’t see why they would not destroy them,” he added (Niko Price, Associated Press/MSNBC.com, Feb. 24).

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