North Korea:  White House May Accept North Korean Nukes

The White House is prepared to accept that it cannot stop North Korea from becoming a nuclear state and is now seeking ways to contain Pyongyang’s potential nuclear stockpile, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, March 4).

The Bush administration is “preparing people up here for a de facto, if not declared, North Korean nuclear state and saying that this is something we can deal with through isolation, sanctions, deterrence and national missile defense,” said a Senate staff member familiar with White House briefings on Capitol Hill.

Administration officials, the staff member said, “are trying to prevent Congress from leaping in alarm and either calling for pre-emptive military actions, which they don’t think offers them good options, or criticizing them for being surprised by the North becoming a nuclear power on their watch.”

A senior Bush administration official denied that the White House has accepted a nuclear Pyongyang as an inevitable outcome.

“Resigned?  Throwing up our hands?  Working our how to accept them as a nuclear power?  No, that’s not what we’re doing,” the official said.

A statement from Senator Joseph Biden (D-Del.) said that the reports, if accurate, are “disturbing.”

“I’m amazed that we would sit back and let North Korea become a plutonium factory churning out the world’s most dangerous material and possibly selling it to the highest bidder,” Biden said.  “We need to treat this problem for what it is — a crisis — and listen to our allies who say we can still head it off if we just sit down and talk” to Pyongyang, Biden said (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, March 5).

Several U.S. allies in the region have apparently reached the conclusion that a nuclear North Korea is inevitable, the Washington Post reported.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, sent a message to Washington that Seoul would prefer a nuclear North Korea to the disorder that would follow collapse of Kim Jong Il’s regime, according to the Post.

In Japan, some lawmakers agree that the nuclear process cannot be stopped.

“We need to be debating how to live with North Korea, with or without nuclear weapons,” said Taro Kono, a member of the ruling party (Struck/Kessler, Washington Post, March 5).

U.S. Sends Bombers

The Pentagon, meanwhile, announced yesterday it plans to send two dozen long-range bombers to Guam, putting them within easy striking distance of North Korea, the New York Times reported.

The order was issued before an encounter Saturday between a U.S. spy plane and four North Korean fighter jets (Sanger/Shanker, New York Times, March 5).

The Pentagon has currently suspended surveillance flights to the area where the incident occurred, USA Today reported today.

Defense officials are “reviewing what happened and deciding what to continue,” said a senior administration official (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, March 5).

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Iran:  Officials Plan to Open Uranium Processing Plant Soon

Iran has reportedly said it will open a uranium processing plant in coming weeks, according to Reuters (see GSN, Feb. 27).

“Iran will start operating its nuclear facility in Isfahan early next (Iranian) year,” Hassan Rohani, secretary general of the National Supreme Security Council, was quoted in a number of newspapers as saying.

The Iranian calendar year begins March 21, according to Reuters.

Uranium from Iranian mines would be processed at the Isfahan plant and the resulting gas enriched at another site in Natanz, Rohani said.

Iranian officials say their nuclear effort is solely intended to generate energy.  Washington has accused Iran of a clandestine nuclear weapons effort and U.S. officials have said Iran’s fossil fuel supply is enough to power the country.

“Having access to the technology is not translated into having access to an atomic bomb.  It is scientific technology used for peaceful purposes,” Rohani said (Reuters/Planet Ark, March 5).

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Ukraine:  United States Pledges $1.5 Million to Boost Security at Research Institute

The United States has agreed to provide $1.5 million to Ukraine to help improve security at the Kharkiv-Physical Technical Institute, Carlos Pascual, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 11, 2002).  The institute is estimated to store as much as 75 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (Tom Warner, Financial Times, March 5).

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United States:  Senators Protest White House Nuclear Policy

Ten Democratic U.S. senators have sent a letter to the White House protesting President George W. Bush’s nuclear policy, the Washington Times reported today (see related GSN story, today).

The 10 said recent newspaper reports have indicated that the Bush administration “considers nuclear weapons as a mere extension of the continuum of conventional weapons open to the United States, and that your administration may use nuclear weapons in the looming military conflict against Iraq,” according to the letter.

Senators Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) led the group, the Washington Times reported.

Reports have indicated that the White House has been planning possible use of nuclear weapons in Iraq and a classified national security document was revealed that keeps the nuclear option open.

“The United States will continue to make clear that it reserves the right to respond with overwhelming force — including potentially nuclear weapons to the use of (weapons of mass destruction) — against the United States, our forces abroad, and friends and allies,” according to last September’s National Security Presidential Directive 17 (see GSN, Jan. 31).

The letter decried this policy and noted that Iraq is not known to possess nuclear weapons and is still a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

“Abandoning our pledge under the NPT would be to turn our backs on all nuclear nonproliferation efforts, since the treaty serves as the hub for the entire nuclear arms control framework,” the senators wrote.

The senators said using a nuclear weapon would encourage other countries to develop nuclear weapons and open the door for existing nuclear powers to use their own weapons (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, March 5).

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China:  Beijing’s Military Budget to Jump 17 Percent

China will announce this week that it is increasing its military spending by more than 17 percent, and international analysts say the actual increase could be much larger, the South China Morning Post reported today.

Unpublicized money could be funding a new missile program, a program to equip missiles with multiple warheads or an effort to develop new nuclear weapons, said Larry Wortzel, vice president of the Heritage Foundation in Washington (see GSN, Feb. 11).

In an effort to combat terrorism and intimidate Taiwan, China will spend about $24 billion on defense, an increase of more than $4 billion from last year’s budget, according to the Morning Post.  This will mark the 13th consecutive year that China has posted a double-digit percentage increase in its military spending, the Morning Post reported.

The actual figure could be as much as three to four times the official amount, Wortzel said (Fong Tak-ho, South China Morning Post, March 5).

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North Korea:  Bush Says Military Force Is Possible

U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday suggested the United States might use military force against North Korea if the nuclear crisis is not solved through diplomatic means, the Baltimore Sun reported today (see GSN, March 3).

“If they don’t work diplomatically, they’ll have to work militarily,” according to Bush, who said that a conflict is “our last choice” (Matthews/Greene, Baltimore Sun, March 4).

Congressional sources and White House officials, however, said Washington would not respond with a military attack if North Korea restarts its nuclear fuel reprocessing facility, USA Today reported.

The Bush administration has decided that at first, it “won’t do anything,” said an administration official.  The White House will not rule out a military option, but officials have not said what it would take to begin such a scenario.

Some experts believe that the White House would not be unhappy if North Korea restarts the reprocessing plant.

“Some in the Bush administration think this (reprocessing) would not be a bad thing,” said a Senate staff member who is familiar with the administration’s stance.  These officials believe that reprocessing would help the United States build an international coalition to alienate Pyongyang.

Analysts fear, however, that the crisis could move toward conflict because of miscalculation, USA Today reported (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, March 4).

Military Tensions Escalate

Meanwhile, four North Korean fighter jets intercepted a U.S. Air Force spy plane near the Korean coast Saturday, the New York Times reported.

The fighters came within 50 feet of the RC-135S Cobra Ball in international airspace about 150 miles from North Korea and a North Korean pilot apparently “locked on” to the U.S. plane with his radar, the Times reported.  No shots were fired, according to Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis.  The surveillance flights will continue with armed U.S. fighter escorts, which raises the possibility of a confrontation, officials said.

“This is serious stuff,” said a senior official.  “It’s worrisome because they are creating their own drumbeat,” the official added.

There were no radio communications between the pilots during the encounter, but a North Korean waved to the U.S. aircrew and indicated they should leave the area.

“He was waving at them to get out of there,” said a senior military officer.

A senior administration official said the issue is not over.

“There was some real concern for a few minutes when they locked on.  It’ll be taken up with other countries in the region.  There will be a protest filed with the North Koreans,” the official said (Eric Schmitt, New York Times, March 4).

Amid the tension, U.S. and South Korean forces began a joint military exercise today over protests from Pyongyang.

The exercise will last one month and are “defense-oriented” and designed to protect against “external aggression,” the U.S.-South Korean Combined Forces Command said in a news release.

“These unceasing U.S. war drills drive the situation on the Korean peninsula to such a dangerous pitch of tension that a nuclear war may break out on it any moment,” said a statement from the state-run Korean Central News Agency (Jong-Heon Lee, United Press International, March 4).

Yang Sung-chul, South Korea’s ambassador to the United States, said yesterday that the U.S. policy is becoming a “self-fulfilling prophecy.  If you have a confrontational approach, you get a confrontational response,” the ambassador added (Slavin, USA Today).

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North Korea:  U.S. Officials Expect Pyongyang to Begin Reprocessing Soon

White House officials and intelligence experts expect North Korea to activate its nuclear reprocessing plant in the next few weeks, the New York Times reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 28).

Officials said the reactivation of the plant, where North Korea could separate plutonium from spent nuclear fuel, could be timed to coincide with the beginning of military action in Iraq.

“Once they start reprocessing, it’s a bomb a month from now until summer,” said a senior official.

Current and former defense and security officials have told the White House that the current policy — of refusing negotiations until North Korea begins to disarm — is failing and direct negotiations might be necessary, the Times reported.  Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told Congress last month that the United States should engage in “a bilateral discussion” with North Korea under “a multilateral umbrella, of any sort” (see GSN, Feb. 5).

“Off-the-Wall Angry”

Armitage also commended the 1994 Agreed Framework that froze North Korean plutonium production activities until this year, but his comments left U.S. President George W. Bush “off-the-wall angry,” according to a senior administration official.  Several White House officials supported that account of Bush’s reaction.

Following Armitage’s testimony, Bush told Secretary of State Colin Powell and other officials that he was forbidding public discussion of direct talks with North Korea, the Times reported (David Sanger, New York Times, March 1).

Nuclear Reactor Project Paused

Meanwhile, South Korea, Japan and the United States recently decided to delay acquiring key components needed to build two nuclear reactors in North Korea, the Korea Times reported today.  The countries are all executive board members of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, the institution created to build two nuclear reactors as part of the 1994 agreement.

A senior Korean Foreign Affairs-Trade Ministry official called the move a slowdown in the project, which will be followed with an official statement on the future of the effort (Korea Times, March 3).

“No final agreement has yet been made whether to slow down the whole project or part of it, or to freeze it.  This will be discussed according to North Korea’s future moves,” a Korean official said yesterday (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, March 3).

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Russia:  Mayak Security Is Weak, Report Says

Security at the Russia’s Mayak nuclear weapons complex remains inadequate despite more than $458 million in U.S. funds intended to secure fissile material there, the Denver Rocky Mountain News reported last month (see GSN, Feb. 21).

U.S. and Russian contractors are building a $350 million warehouse at Mayak to store plutonium, the Rocky Mountain News reported.

Experts said the plant has a record of poor security.

“They bent down and pulled out a bucket of plutonium and handed it to me,” said Rose Gottemoeller, former Energy Department deputy undersecretary for nonproliferation.  The complex had plutonium stored in areas with broken wood doors and smashed windows but has remedied some problems, she said.

Pavel Oleinikov, who lived near Mayak but now works in nonproliferation, said that large security holes remain.

“A high-level manager can supersede all regulations, and say, ‘Let’s ship it to our new commercial partner in North Korea,” he said (Ann Imse, Rocky Mountain News, Feb. 22).

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Iran:  Tehran Rejects Enhanced Nuclear Safeguards

During a visit of international nuclear experts, Iran announced Saturday that it has rejected for now a request to cooperate with enhanced measures to monitor its nuclear activities (see GSN, Feb. 21).

The International Atomic Energy Agency had asked Iran to sign an Additional Protocol to its safeguards agreement with the nuclear watchdog.  The protocol would permit the agency to conduct more intrusive inspections and environmental monitoring in Iran.

Gholamreza Aghazadeh, Iran’s top nuclear energy official, said Iran would not sign the protocol because few other countries have done so.  It would, however, comply with its existing nuclear nonproliferation commitments as it builds new nuclear reactors and fuel production facilities, he said.

“All our developments will be under the oversight of the IAEA, but we will leave the road open to the Additional Protocol in the future,” Aghazadeh said.

After arriving Friday for a three-day visit, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei left one day earlier than scheduled, leaving his delegation to complete their tour of Iranian nuclear facilities (Azadeh Moaveni, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 23).

“I made it clear that with Iran developing a sophisticated fuel-cycle program, it is important for the agency to have as much authority, as much information, as possible,” ElBaradei said.  “I was assured that this issue will be under active consideration by the Iranian government, and this is an issue I will continue to discuss,” he added.

In Washington meanwhile, a State Department statement reaffirmed the U.S. assessment of Iran’s nuclear intentions, saying Iran has a “nuclear program based on deception and bad faith, and an ambitious rush to develop a nuclear fuel cycle, whose true purpose can only be to produce fissile material for its nuclear weapons program”

“Whatever the Iranians showed him [ElBaradei] about their hitherto clandestine uranium-enrichment program, it is akin to a midnight conversation, disclosed only after the facility’s existence was revealed by an Iranian opposition group,” the State Department said (Miranda Eeles, London Times, Feb. 24).

Iran, however, said it was acting in good faith.  “Iran intended to clarify that all doors would be open to the agency and its members and that Iran would proceed transparently,” Aghazadeh said.  “If a country has any doubt about Iran’s nuclear programs, it should go to the agency rather than slandering Iran,” he added (Moaveni, Los Angeles Times).

ElBaradei and a team of experts visited a developing uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz but the IAEA chief did not travel to the heavy water plant under construction at Arak or the nuclear reactor being built at Bushehr (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, Feb. 23).

At Natanz, the IAEA experts saw a network of centrifuges to enrich uranium and they learned that Iran has the capability to build more centrifuges (Michael Gordon, New York Times, Feb. 22).

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North Korea:  Powell Meets Jiang Zemin, But No Agreement Reached

After four hours of meetings in Beijing with President Jiang Zemin and senior Chinese officials, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the two countries had not agreed to a shared strategy on North Korea or Iraq (see GSN, Feb. 20).

The White House wants China to pressure Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear aspirations, the New York Times reported.

“I think they are anxious to play as helpful a role as they can” regarding North Korea, Powell said.  “I think they will play that role quietly,” he added.

Powell also met with Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao, who is set to assume the country’s top position.  There are “new ideas” being discussed to bring Pyongyang to negotiate an end to the crisis, according to Powell (James Dao, New York Times, Feb. 24).

Powell also issued a warning to North Korea on its alleged weapons program.

“I cannot emphasize enough how seriously all of us would view any move by North Korea toward reprocessing of the spent fuel rods and production of nuclear weapons,” he said (see GSN, Jan. 31).

The next stop on Powell’s East Asian trip is South Korea, where he is scheduled to meet with President-elect Roh Moo-hyun, who will take office tomorrow.  Roh urged the United States to view North Korea as a partner in negotiations.

“North Korea was opening up and … is already changing,” Roh said.  “If we give them what they desperately want — regime security, normal treatment and economic assistance — they will be willing to give up their nuclear ambitions.  We should not, therefore, treat them as criminals but as partners in negotiations,” he added (Charles Whelan, Agence France-Presse, Feb. 24).

Food Aid to Resume

Powell said Saturday that the United States would soon resume food shipments to ease North Korean hunger (see GSN, Feb. 12).

“The need is still great.  You go through all the politics; there are kids out there that are starving.  If we can help them, we will,” Powell said.

The World Food Program said that it cannot feed large areas of North Korea because of insufficient international support.  The United States has not contributed to the program since December, Knight Ridder news agency reported.

The U.S. Congress recently granted budgetary authority that will allow donations to resume, according to Powell (Michael Zielenziger, Knight Ridder/San Jose Mercury News, Feb. 22).

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United States:  Pentagon Considering Converting ICBMs to Conventional Warheads

The U.S. Defense Department is examining a proposal to replace the nuclear warheads on some ICBMs with conventional weapons for use in short-notice strikes against enemy states, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 24, 2002).

Such a plan, which is just starting to be considered, would give the United States the ability to conduct long-range strikes with conventional weapons and avoid putting U.S. pilots at risk, military officials said.  The Air Force Space Command is expected to begin formally considering converting some Minuteman 3 ICBMs to conventional warheads this fall during a two-year review, the Times reported.

The conventional warhead on top of the converted missile could be taken from a number of high explosive or other specialized warheads, including bunker-busting munitions, said Maj. Gen. Timothy McMahon, commander of the 20th Air Force at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, which maintains the U.S. arsenal of 500 long-range Minuteman 3 and 45 Peacekeeper missiles.  The sheer impact of the missile, which moves at a speed of 14,000 feet per second, would be itself highly damaging, he added.

McMahon said he would be “very, very surprised,” if at some point the United States did not employ ballistic missiles armed with conventional warheads.

“If the nation decides that it wants to place at risk certain targets that emerge, and that if you need to strike those things in a very prompt manner — 35 to 45 minutes — a ballistic missile gives you that capability,” McMahon said.  “It’s basically long-range artillery.  But the type of munition on board would be unlike any other artillery we’ve ever used,” he added.

The proposal does raise several concerns, according to the Times.  For example, any long-range missiles armed with conventional warheads would still be counted under existing arms control treaties, such as START, said Pentagon officials.  Arms control experts said that even though converting nuclear missiles to a conventional role would reduce the number of U.S. strategic weapons, there is no guarantee that the missiles will not be refitted someday with nuclear warheads — a move other countries could follow.

“It could elicit a response from other missile powers, like China or Russia,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association (Eric Schmitt, New York Times, Feb. 24).

For further information, see:

START I Text and Associated Documents (U.S. Defense Department)

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