North Korea I:  Talks Set for This Week

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly leaves for Beijing today to engage North Korea and China in discussions starting Wednesday on the Korean nuclear standoff (see GSN, April 18; Barbara Slavin, USA Today, April 21).

U.S. President George W. Bush has said the discussions, and diplomatic efforts from China, Japan and South Korea, could help resolve the nuclear crisis.

“I believe that all four of us, working together, have a good chance of convincing North Korea to abandon her ambitions to develop a nuclear arsenal,” Bush said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 21).

The talks nearly fell through Friday when North Korea announced it had begun reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods but Pyongyang rephrased the statement today saying only that it is “successfully going forward to reprocess” the spent fuel rods (Reuters/MSNBC.com, April 21).

The talks were also endangered by a memorandum, circulated by U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, which suggested a diplomatic effort to oust North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.  The memorandum proposed a collaborative effort with China, but some officials called the idea fanciful.

“The last thing the Chinese want,” said a senior Bush administration official, “is a collapse of North Korea that will create a flood of refugees into China and put Western allies on the Chinese border.”

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is instead pushing to resolve the North Korean situation diplomatically, offering aid and investment to North Korea in return for dismantling nuclear programs.

“There’s a sense in the Pentagon that Powell got this arranged while everyone was distracted with Iraq,” one intelligence official said of the talks.  “And now there is a race over who will control the next steps,” the official added (David Sanger, New York Times, April 21).

Conflicting agendas in the United States have also created international tension over the talks.

“There are two schools in the U.S., and we have to deal with both of them,” a Japanese official said Saturday.  “It’s very difficult.  We are seriously wondering if there will be a second round of talks,” the official added (Struck/Kessler, Washington Post, April 20).

North-South Talks Possible

North Korea has proposed Cabinet-level talks with South Korea in Pyongyang April 27-29, according to South Korean officials (Korea Herald, April 20), and Seoul agreed today to take part in the bilateral discussions (Associated Press/USA Today, April 21).

Kim Ryong Song, North Korea’s chief negotiator, proposed the talks, the Korea Herald reported.

“We will urge the North to resolve the nuclear issue through dialogue, and explain the new government’s North Korea policy,” said an official from Seoul’s Unification Ministry (Korea Herald).

U.S. Military Option

U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) said yesterday that while dealing with North Korea, a military option “always has to be there as a very strong possibility.”

“I say that fully cognizant of all the testimony we have heard of the potential ramifications for South Korea, for Japan, for our own American forces, for innocent American civilians who are in the Seoul area.  But the proliferation of materials to make weapons as well as the weapons themselves and North Korea’s reputation for producing them simply to obtain revenues for a failed state — this is intolerable, and the North Koreans have to understand that,” Lugar said (Joyce Price, Washington Times, April 21).

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North Korea II:  “Operation Weasel” Aids North Korean Defections

The United States and its allies have helped up to 20 senior North Korean military and scientific officials defect to Western countries in the past six months, including a key figure in Pyongyang’s nuclear efforts, The Weekend Australian reported (see GSN, April 18).

Among the defectors was Kyong Won Ha, the father of the North Korean nuclear effort.

U.S. officials had helped organize and finance the effort — dubbed Operation Weasel — to move the North Koreans through China and into Western countries.  Embassies in Beijing were reportedly used to hold defectors and smuggle them out of China.  Intelligence officials have interrogated Kyong and are gaining valuable insight into North Korea’s nuclear operations, especially those at Yongbyon, according to The Weekend Australian.

Spanish officials helped smuggle Kyong out of North Korea, the paper reported.  The other countries involved in the now-completed effort were New Zealand, Thailand, the Philippines and the Pacific island nations of Vanuatu and Nauru (Chulov/Stewart, The Weekend Australian, April 20).

New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark denied her government was involved in the operation (Chulov/Harvey, The Australian, April 21).

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South Asia:  India Offers Talks to Resolve Kashmir Issue

Speaking Friday from the contested Kashmir region, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee proposed Indian-Pakistani talks to resolve the long-standing dispute over Kashmir — a potential flashpoint between the two nuclear-armed rivals, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, April 18).

Vajpayee made the offer during a public address in the Kashmiri city of Srinagar — the first public address by an Indian prime minister in the disputed region since 1986.

“Problems can be resolved by talks,” he said.  “We are ready.”

Noting the failure of past peace efforts, Vajpayee said the Indian offer had to be reciprocated by Pakistan, which India has accused of supporting cross-border terrorism.

“We again extend the hand of friendship, but the hands should be extended from both sides,” Vajpayee said.  “The decision to live together should be made from both sides” (John Lancaster, Washington Post, April 19).

Pakistan today welcomed the offer, saying it was ready to hold talks on Kashmir at any time and without preconditions.

“We hope that immediate steps will be taken so that the dialogue process can start,” said Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan.  “Dialogue can start only when there are no preconditions attached to it,” he added (Reuters/Washington Post, April 21).

One of the largest Islamic militant groups fighting in Kashmir, however, has rejected India’s peace talks offer, according to the Associated Press.

“We believe that Vajpayee’s offer is a deception to gain time to crush the freedom movement in Indian-occupied Kashmir,” Salim Hashmi, a spokesman for the guerrilla group Hezb-ul Mujahedeen, said Saturday in Islamabad.  “We will not silence our guns just because of this offer,” he said.

Any talks over Kashmir will not succeed without the participation of guerilla groups, Hashmi said.

“If they exclude us from the talks, they will not achieve anything,” Hashmi said, adding, “If Indians are sincere, they should also invite representatives of Kashmir” (Munir Ahmed, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 20).

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North Korea:  Spent-Fuel Reprocessing Underway, Pyongyang Announces

North Korea announced today that it is “successfully reprocessing 8,000 spent fuel rods” to extract plutonium that could be used for nuclear weapons, the New York Times reported (see GSN, April 17).

The state-run Korean Central News Agency made the announcement, though U.S. and South Korean officials have said this week there is no evidence reprocessing has begun.  U.S. officials did not comment on today’s development, according to the Times.

The news broke as U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials met in Washington to discuss a negotiating strategy for next week’s talks with China and North Korea (Don Kirk, New York Times, April 18).

China recently promised to take an active role in the talks, a position that persuaded Washington to agree to the meetings, Reuters reported today.

Chinese officials told their U.S. counterparts that “we’re very serious about this and we will be a substantive partner,” according to a senior U.S. official.

U.S. President George W. Bush was concerned that China would get U.S. and North Korean diplomats in the same room, convene the meeting and then leave.

“If they (Chinese) got up and left the room and never came back, that would be a problem,” the official added.

Washington characterized the meetings, scheduled to take place next week, as an exchange of ideas.

“There are not going to be any substantive discussions until this conference expands to include at least South Korea and Japan,” the senior official said.  Washington is also concerned that Pyongyang will try to use the negotiations to arrange a bilateral meeting with the United States.

“If the North Koreans are coming thinking the only subject to discuss is how to move this to be a smaller conference, from three to two [participants], then it’ll be a real short meeting,” according to the official.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the meeting will be “an opportunity to lower tensions … And I hope the North Koreans approach this meeting in that sphere” (Carol Giacomo, Reuters, April 18).

China’s ambassador to South Korea, however, said that the difference in opinion lies between the United States and North Korea.

“I don’t think China plans to mediate,” Ambassador Li Bin said yesterday.  “Although China can play a constructive role, it is the two parties involved that should solve the problem.  How much the problem could be resolved is up to how the two parties work,” Li added (Jae-suk Yoo, Associated Press/Sacramento Bee, April 18).

A diplomatic source in Beijing warned that China would most likely avoid getting too deeply involved in the talks.

“China’s role is likely to be significant, but it doesn’t want to get directly involved in the brawl,” he added.

Another Western diplomat believes that China will try to keep the two parties at the table long enough for a breakthrough to be reached.

“There’s a deep sense of mistrust between the parties which could preclude a settlement,” said the diplomat.  “If the Chinese can keep them at the table long enough, it might break the stalemate,” the diplomat added.

The diplomat dismissed some Chinese assertions that it was only bringing the two rivals together.

“The possibility of a war on the Korean Peninsula has become too real for the Chinese to ignore,” he added.

Fearing a U.S. military strike against North Korea, Chinese defense officials have asked President Hu Jintao to increase military assistance to Pyongyang, United Press International reported today.

“Senior Chinese military officials are very concerned about losing the North Korean buffer zone,” said one Asian diplomat, adding  “After the war in Iraq, there are fears of a pre-emptive U.S. military strike on North Korea” (Christian Wade, United Press International, April 18).

South Korea’s ambassador to the United States, Han Sung-joo, said today that any deal that comes from these talks will be more detailed than the 1994 Agreed Framework.

“This is going to be an arduous, long process.  It’s not going to be a cakewalk,” Han said (Jae-suk Yoo, Associated Press/Sacramento Bee).

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South Asia:  Pakistan Has Not Stopped Militants Despite U.S. Pleas, Official Says

The United States has failed to persuade Pakistan to stop militants from attacking Indian-controlled sections of Kashmir — a potential flashpoint between the two nuclear-armed rivals, a senior U.S. State Department official said yesterday (see GSN, April 17).

“The United States for some time has urged the Pakistani government to stop cross-border terrorism across the line of control,” said Richard Haass, the State Department’s director for policy planning.  “I will be honest:  We have not succeeded,” he said.

Although Pakistan pledged last year to prevent militants from crossing into Kashmir from its side of the border, India has claimed that Pakistan continues to support cross-border terrorism, according to Reuters.

“We are at times disappointed and frustrated with that reality,” Haass said.  “It will continue to be a major diplomatic priority for the United States, something that continues, that we talk about,” he added (Reuters/Times of India, April 18).

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is expected to visit India and Pakistan early next month to help defuse tensions between the two countries (C. Raja Mohan, The Hindu, April 17).

Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is set address a public rally in Kashmir today, the first time in 16 years that an Indian prime minister has made a public address in the disputed region, according to the London Times.

Security has been tightened at the summer capital of Srinagar in preparation for Vajpayee’s speech, which is expected to focus on economic issues in the region.  As many as 20,000 people are expected to attend the address (Ian Mackinnon, London Times, April 18).

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Kyrgyzstan:  Russia to Assist in Ending Uranium Production

Russia plans to help the former Soviet state of Kyrgyzstan close its uranium-production facilities and empty its remaining uranium stockpiles, Agence France-Presse reported today.  Russia’s assistance will include preparing technical data and funding for the project, which is expected to cost up to $9 million, Russian Atomic Energy Ministry officials said (Agence France-Presse, April 18).

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North Korea:  Talks Begin Wednesday; Start of “Long, Intense Process”

For months the United States insisted North Korea abandon its nuclear development as a precursor to any talks between the countries, but U.S. President George W. Bush recently “decided to go ahead with discussions without any preset conditions,” according to a high-ranking Japanese official (see GSN, March 3).  U.S., North Korean and Chinese officials are scheduled to begin as many as three days of meetings Wednesday in Beijing (see GSN, April 16).

Officials in Washington also decided that Chinese involvement in the discussions qualified them as multilateral, a longstanding White House demand.

“Everybody knows this is sort of [an] ‘appearance’” of multilateral talks, the Japanese official said.

Washington’s change of heart, Pyongyang’s decision not to insist on strictly bilateral talks and Chinese diplomatic involvement culminated in the arrangement of the trilateral negotiations, the Washington Post reported.  Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly will lead the U.S. delegation.

The Bush administration had pressured to China to become more involved in defusing the nuclear crisis, according to a senior U.S. official.

“After months of telling them to do more, they finally came up with this.  It wasn’t perfect, but it represented much more substantial involvement by them than anything they had done before,” the official said.

U.S. officials said, however, that they would not discuss North Korea’s weapons programs until South Korea, Japan and Russia are represented at future meetings.

“That’s one reason why I would characterize this as exchanging views rather than a negotiation,” a U.S. official said.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell also said that this was just the first meeting of many, “the beginning of a long, intense process of discussion” (DeYoung/Struck, Washington Post, April 17).

While Bush is willing to enter into meetings, he has instructed the U.S. delegation not to settle for North Korea only freezing its nuclear activities, as the 1994 Agreed Framework did, the New York Times reported.  After a Tuesday meeting with Powell, Bush signed off on a negotiating strategy to insist that any agreement with Pyongyang must require North Korea to completely dismantle its nuclear facilities (see GSN, Jan. 14).

In exchange, a senior U.S. official said Washington is looking for different ways “to assure the North Koreans that we are not looking to overthrow them, to take them out” (David Sanger, New York Times, April 17).

Neighbors Not Snubbed

Japanese and South Korean officials said they were not offended by their exclusion from the talks, and they expect to take part in later rounds.

“Whether we are at the initial talks or not is beside the point,” said a Japanese official.  “What matters is that dialogue takes place,” the official added (Ward/Pilling, Financial Times, April 17).

However, South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan said that if Seoul does not take part in the talks, it would not contribute to a North Korean aid package.

State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said the United States could revive the “bold initiative” — to establish diplomatic relations and boost Pyongyang’s economic prospects — which the United States was readying before North Korea’s alleged uranium enrichment program was revealed.

Reeker did not indicate if U.S. oil shipments to the struggling communist country would be restarted (Mark Matthews, Baltimore Sun, April 17).

A senior Bush administration official said yesterday that North Korea decided as early as 1995 to begin a secret program to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons (Sanger, New York Times).

Annan Welcomes Talks, Commission Faults North Korea

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan yesterday was “encouraged” by news of the upcoming talks, according to a U.N. spokesman.

Annan and special envoy Maurice Strong “will continue to lend their full support to this process, while concentrating on humanitarian and longer-term development needs of the D.P.R.K.,” the spokesman said (U.N. release, April 16).

The U.N. Human Rights Commission yesterday approved a resolution censuring North Korea for human rights violations, including torture and public executions, United Press International reported.

The resolution, a first of its kind, was sponsored by the European Union and co-sponsored by the United States, Japan and Australia.

The measure passed, 28-10, despite China and Russia voting against.

South Korea, wary of upsetting their northern neighbor before next week’s talks, abstained from the voting.

“I think this is a victory for the human rights of the people of North Korea.  We hope the government there will take this resolution seriously,” said Kevin Moley, the U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations in Geneva (John Zarocostas, United Press International, April 16)

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South Asia:  U.S. Envoy to Visit Region Early Next Month

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is expected to visit India and Pakistan early next month to help defuse tensions between the two South Asian nuclear rivals, sources said yesterday (see GSN, April 8).

Tensions between the two countries have appeared to increase recently, with India and Pakistan earlier this month exchanging threats of pre-emptive action.  “We take such threats very seriously,” a senior U.S. official said.

While in Pakistan, Armitage is expected to urge officials to halt all infiltration into the Indian-controlled section of the disputed province of Kashmir, senior diplomatic sources said.  During his visit to India, Armitage is expected to call on officials there to refrain from using force against Pakistan to settle the Kashmir dispute, they said.  He is also expected to call on both countries to resume bilateral talks. 

Armitage had originally been scheduled to travel to the region next week, but the trip was delayed because of the Bush administration’s current focus on the Middle East, sources said (Anwar Iqbal, United Press International, April 16).

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North Korea:  Nuclear Crisis Talks Scheduled to Begin Next Week

The United States, North Korea and China will hold talks in Beijing next week to begin a direct discussion on the North Korean nuclear crisis, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, April 15).

China’s participation was key to binging about the meeting, according to a U.S. official, as the United States has refused to meet with North Korea alone, insisting instead on a multilateral forum.

“What’s new here is that there is an active, bold participatory role for the Chinese,” the official added.

Having only three parties at the table represents a compromise between the earlier North Korean demand for bilateral talks and the U.S. demand for multilateral talks including South Korea, Japan and Russia, according to the Times.  In planning next week’s meeting, the United States “reserved the right” to bring in other nations in the future, the official said.

U.S. President George W. Bush approved the plan to hold negotiations with North Korea, according to the Times (David Sanger, New York Times, April 16).

Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is slated to head the U.S. delegation that travels to Beijing next week, the Washington Post reported today.

“We’ve been working this very subtly … in a way that we think it going to be effective,” a senior White House official said, adding, “There has never been any fear of talking with the North Koreans, but the idea you would just rush into bilateral talks would bring you back to where you were in 1994” (Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, April 16).

U.S. military success in Iraq might have paved the way for the diplomatic breakthrough, after months of tension and threats, the Los Angeles Times reported.

“Everybody has been motivated post-Iraq to respond.  Not just the North Koreans, but the Chinese as well,” said Scott Snyder, the Seoul representative of the Asia Foundation (Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times, April 16).

Regional neighbors South Korea and Japan could join the talks at a later date, according to officials.

“We understand that South Korea and Japan will participate in the talks in the future.  We believe this is also the understanding on the part of the U.S.  We will watch how this will develop,” said a Japanese Foreign Ministry official (DeYoung, Washington Post).

South Korea also agreed to the Beijing talks, even without Seoul’s involvement.

“We decided to accept trilateral talks because it is important to begin talks at an early date so that we can prevent an escalation of nuclear tension and find a breakthrough on the matter,” a South Korean Foreign Ministry official said (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, April 16).

Attempting to keep relations calm on the Korean Peninsula, Seoul announced it would abstain from a U.N. vote today on a resolution condemning human rights violations in North Korea.

The 53-member U.N. Human Rights Commission is scheduled to vote on the European Union-sponsored resolution, which would provide the first U.N. condemnation of North Korea’s human rights record, Agence France-Presse reported.

“At a time of seeking to urgently address the nuclear issue, we have concerns that it may be undesirable to publicly provoke North Korea,” said South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Kim Sun-heung.  “The U.N. resolution could not help ease the situation if North Korea overreacts to it.  Pyongyang could take it as an insult on its sovereignty,” Kim added.

Human rights activists and the Grand National Party, the South Korean opposition, criticized the decision.

“The abstention is such an unjust decision, a wrong step to show the government itself gives up its identity as a human rights advocate,” the opposition said in a statement (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, April 16).

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Russia:  Environmental Concerns Stop Rokot Booster Launches

Russian environmental officials have ordered the suspension of launches of the Rokot space launch vehicle, a converted SS-19 ballistic missile, from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Archangel region, ITAR-Tass reported today (see GSN, Oct. 10, 2002).

The “Rokot launching pad lacks the required purification system,” said Ivan Popov, of the Chief Natural Resources Department for the region.  The order is set to go into effect June 1.

Officials are close to completing work on a new purification project, which is expected to begin by the end of September, ITAR-Tass reported (Vladimir Anufriyev, ITAR-Tass, April 16).

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United States:  Workers Exposed in Oak Ridge Uranium Fire

A small amount of depleted uranium caught fire yesterday at the U.S. Energy Department’s Y-12 nuclear weapons facility in Oak Ridge, Tenn., exposing three workers to low levels of radioactive contamination, plant officials said (see GSN, Dec. 6, 2002).

The fire resulted in no injuries, Y-12 spokesman Bill Wilburn said.

Referring to the three workers exposed to radiation, Wilburn said,  “It was a very low level of contamination.”

“All three people have been decontaminated, and there is no expected health risk associated with this low level of contamination,” he said (Frank Munger, Knoxnews.com, April 16).

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U.S.-Russia:  HEU Deal Eliminates Equivalent of 7,000 Warheads

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S.-Russian “Megatons to Megawatts” program has so far eliminated about 175 metric tons of Russian highly enriched uranium — the equivalent of 7,000 nuclear warheads, the U.S. Enrichment Corporation announced Sunday (see GSN, Oct. 4, 2002).

Under the program, USEC purchases uranium taken from Russian nuclear warheads for later use as fuel for nuclear power plants.  On average, one in 10 U.S. homes and businesses receive electricity generated from fuel purchased through the program, the USEC release said.  To date, USEC and its Russian partner Techsnabexport (TENEX) have completed more than one-third of the 20-year agreement to eliminate the equivalent of 20,000 nuclear warheads.

“We are extremely proud of the ongoing success of the Megatons to Megawatts program,” USEC President and Chief Executive Officer William Timbers said in a press statement.  “Over the past nine years, USEC and TENEX have been continuously engaged in establishing and maintaining a strong, flexible and cooperative working relationship.  The Megatons to Megawatts program has significantly enhanced world security by steadily reducing stockpiles of nuclear bomb-grade materials, while creating a clean, valuable resource — nuclear fuel,” he said.

Nonproliferation experts have praised the Megatons to Megawatts program for its role in reducing nuclear weapon stockpiles.

The program is “one of the few demonstrable successes, so far, in nuclear weapon disposition,” Nuclear Control Institute President Edwin Lyman told Global Security Newswire today.  “There is little doubt that the goals of the program are worthwhile,” he added.

There have been some concerns, however, with how the program has been implemented, Lyman said.  For example, there has been too much emphasis placed on making the program profitable for USEC, which has led to negotiation problems with the program’s Russian agents, he said.  Last year, USEC and Russia were engaged in a pricing dispute that led to a halt in Russian uranium shipments (see GSN, May 10, 2002).  The dispute was ultimately resolved after the two parties agreed to implement a market-based pricing mechanism for the uranium shipments (see GSN, June 20, 2002).

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CTBT:  Philippines Signs CTBTO Facility Agreement

The Philippines yesterday signed an agreement with the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, allowing treaty officials to work on nuclear-test detection facilities in the country.

Treaty verification plans call for the Philippines to host two auxiliary seismic stations in Mindanao and Luzon as well as a radionuclide air-sampling station at Quezon City, according to an organization release.

The facilities are part of the International Monitoring System, which consists of more than 300 worldwide stations designed to detect nuclear explosions.

The organization has now signed facility agreements with 25 countries that host treaty verification equipment (CTBTO release, April 14).

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