North Korea:  Roh Wants Peaceful Resolution to Nuclear Crisis

South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun wants planned talks with U.S. President George W. Bush to focus on the countries’ common desire to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis peacefully, the Associated Press has reported (see GSN, May 8; Christopher Torchia, Associated Press/Yahoo!  News, May 12).

Roh will encourage Bush to issue a public promise to resolve the conflict peacefully, the according to the Washington Times.

“The mere thought of a military conflict with North Korea is a calamity for us,” Roh said.  “If possible, we think it is much more reasonable for us to induce North Korea to reform itself and to open up to the outside world,” he added.

South Korea is, however, “fully prepared and fully braced for a possible calamity,” Roh added (Fran Coombs, Washington Times, May 12).

“Previous South Korea-U.S. summits have been burdened by high expectations,” Roh said.  “I hope the talks will confirm our common approach to resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, and also the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance,” he added.

Cautioning that the talks will not produce “spectacular” results, Roh said that “on matters of detail, there are different points of view.  But on the big matters of principle, we are in accord” (Torchia, Associated Press/Yahoo! News).

A U.S. official said Washington is attempting to keep a unified approach to Pyongyang with South Korea and Japan.  Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is scheduled to visit Bush in Texas next week, the New York Times reported.

The other challenge, according to the official, is “coming up with the right mixture of a willingness to negotiate with a willingness to confront” (Sanger/Shanker, New York Times, May 11).

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Iran:  Washington, Tehran Talking in Geneva

As U.S. officials push accusations of Iranian nuclear development, Washington and Tehran have engaged in three rounds of secret talks in Geneva this year, USA Today reported (see GSN, May 9).

White House envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is reportedly heading the U.S. delegation in the discussions, which are set to resume next week.  Despite clandestine diplomatic contacts, the United States is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to censure Tehran for what Washington believes is a secret nuclear weapons development program.

The two countries have not had diplomatic relations in 23 years but the Iranian Parliament and public seem open to re-establishing ties, according to USA Today.

“The debate is taking place both in Iran and the United States,” an Iranian diplomat said.  “We are ready to discuss reestablishing relations on the basis of mutual respect,” the diplomat added.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell dismissed the idea of renewing diplomatic relations any time soon.

“The issue of diplomatic relations is not on the table right now for either side,” Powell said.  “But in terms of communicating with the Iranians, we have such ways, and we use them on a regular basis,” he added (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, May 11).

The burgeoning relationship, however, may have been damaged by the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the Wall Street Journal reported today.

Tehran believed the United States would attack the anti-Iranian militia Mujahedin-e-Khalq during the invasion while Washington asked Iran not to send fighters over its border with Iraq.  The White House has begun disarming the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, but Iran is attempting to influence the situation in Iraq, the Journal reported.

Iranian agents are telling Iraqis that Washington does not have staying power and U.S. influence will not be around for too much longer, according to a U.S. official.

“The message is, ‘Don’t get too close to the Americans,’” the official said.

The more U.S. President George W. Bush appears to threaten Iran in coming months, “the more active Tehran will be in Iraq to try to keep us tied down so we can’t focus on them,” said a U.S. intelligence official (David Cloud, Wall Street Journal, May 12).

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South Asia:  Armitage Meets With Top Indian Officials

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met Saturday with top Indian officials, including Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, as part of an effort to help reduce tensions between India and Pakistan (see GSN, May 9).

Armitage said it would be India’s responsibility to assess Pakistan’s intentions with regard to the issue of cross-border terrorism in the disputed region of Kashmir, a potential flashpoint between the two countries.  He added that it was not the United States’ responsibility to give India assurances over Pakistan’s pledges to end cross-border terrorism (Amit Baruah, The Hindu, May 11).

Vajpayee Criticizes Sanctions

Meanwhile, Vajpayee yesterday said that technological sanctions against India were discriminatory because several countries “guilty of missile and nuclear proliferation” continue to receive aid.

India remains subject to sanctions imposed after it conducted its first nuclear test in 1974, as well as to sanctions imposed during the 1980s under the Missile Technology Control Regime, Vajpayee said.  He also complained that India was a victim of a “double standard.”

“Countries guilty of missile and nuclear proliferation have not attracted sanctions,” Vajpayee said.  “Some even continue to receive liberal economic assistance,” he said without naming specific countries.

India has never received recognition for its self-imposed restraint on nuclear- and ballistic missile-related transfers, Vajpayee said.  “We have denied ourselves many lucrative contracts and joint ventures,” he said (Reuters/Business Recorder, May 12).

During a series of meetings last week with U.S. officials, Indian National Security Adviser Birjesh Mishra called on the United States to provide India with dual-use technologies for its nonmilitary space and nuclear programs.

During his visit to the United States, which ended Saturday, Mishra told U.S. officials that India was seeking dual-use technologies for use in its scientific research and development programs and not for military purposes.  The Bush administration, however, said U.S. nonproliferation laws prevent the transfer of technologies to countries that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, such as India (Jawed Naqvi, DAWN, May 12).

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Al-Qaeda:  United States Questions Mohammed on Nuclear Links

U.S. intelligence officials are questioning Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, captured March 1 in Pakistan, about a possible link between the al-Qaeda terrorist group and Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, Time magazine reported this week (see GSN, May 1).

Mohammed — who has reportedly denied a link between Khan and al-Qaeda — was the third-highest official in al-Qaeda before his capture, according to Time.

Two years ago, Pakistan removed Khan from nuclear and military posts, and he is now constantly accompanied by a security detail, Time reported.  U.S. officials are concerned, however, that Khan can still disseminate nuclear information.

“He moves around very freely and has everything he needs inside his head, if not his briefcase,” said a U.S. official (Burger/McGirk, Time, May 19).

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United States:  Northrop Grumman Receives Two Contracts to Upgrade B-2 Bombers

Northrop Grumman has received two contracts to upgrade the nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bomber to carry smart bombs and to upgrade the bomber’s radar system, the Los Angeles Daily News reported last week (see GSN, Oct. 17, 2002).

The company has been awarded a $31.7 million contract to produce a bomb rack assembly that will allow the B-2 to be equipped with up to 80 500-pound guided munitions.  Under the contract, the company will convert 45 existing bomb rack assemblies to the new design.  In addition, Northrop Grumman has also been awarded an $85.9 million contract to continue a project to improve the B-2’s radar system (Jim Skeen, Los Angeles Daily News, May 8).

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CTBT:  Kuwait Ratifies Test Ban Treaty

Kuwait ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty May 6, according to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, bring the total number of treaty ratifiers to 101 (see GSN, May 6).  Kuwait is not one of the 44 nations that must ratify the treaty before it can enter in force, only 31 of which have done so (CTBT Organization release, May 6).

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NPT:  Geneva Meeting Ends Admitting Problems

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

GENEVA — The parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty concluded their annual meeting this afternoon with an acknowledgement that the treaty and the nonproliferation regime face serious challenges (see GSN, May 1).

In his summary report of the meeting, Ambassador Laszlo Molnar of Hungary, the chairman of the Preparatory Committee for the 2005 Review Conference, wrote that states “stressed the increasingly grave threat to the treaty and international security posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear, biological and chemical. … The gravity of this threat reinforces the need to strengthen the treaty.”

North Korea, which withdrew from the treaty earlier this year (see GSN, April 10) and Iran were criticized for not complying with the treaty by pursuing nuclear weapons, while the nuclear weapons powers, particularly the United States, were criticized for not pursuing nuclear disarmament. The United States was also criticized for embracing military doctrines that envision more uses for nuclear weapons.

Molnar’s summary was meant to take all these opinions into account without endorsing any of them.  The summary does not represent a consensus view of all the parties, but rather, as Molnar said at a news conference, it “can be seen and adopted as a representative sample of the whole debate without going into any extremities.”  For example, he said, some nuclear powers criticized him for not emphasizing more the progress in nuclear disarmament while some non-nuclear states said he “was not as forthcoming as I could have been on pressing for nuclear disarmament.”

Andrew Semmel of the United States said at the committee’s final session, “While disarmament continues its downward trend, proliferation challenges are mounting.  The relative attention paid by too many delegations to disarmament versus proliferation ignores the reality of our international security situation.”  He added, “We cannot accept these assertions” concerning “the alleged failure” of nuclear disarmament.

Molnar’s summary made an oblique reference to concerns about U.S. nuclear policies by saying, “Concern and uncertainty about existing nuclear arsenals, new approaches to the future role of nuclear weapons, as well as the possible development of new generations of nuclear weapons were expressed.”

The United States was particularly vocal during the session in charging that Iran is developing nuclear weapons in violation of the treaty.  Semmel said he was pleased that Iran was specifically named, but “the summary has not gone far enough.”  He said, “Iran poses as fundamental a challenge as the NPT has ever faced.”  While under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, Iran is developing technology “intended to support a nuclear weapons program,” he added (see related GSN story, today).

Amir Zamaninia of Iran said the U.S. allegation “clearly illustrates the U.S. policy of double standards” of accusing Iran while the United States is not complying with its disarmament obligations and ignoring the issue of nuclear weapons in Israel, which Zamaninia called “a proven and established proliferator.”  Israel is the only Middle East country not party to the treaty

“We are determined, because we do not have anything to hide, to work closely with the IAEA in a cooperative and transparent manner to make the truth about the peaceful nature of our nuclear program known to all,” said Zamaninia at the closing session.  “The NPT will be strong only when it is fully complied with by both the nuclear weapon and non-nuclear weapon states alike, when we … avoid the temptation of picking what suits us at a particular juncture,” he added.

The paragraph on Iran in Molnar’s summary noted that Iran has been asked to sign a new protocol with the IAEA that would give the agency greater access to the country’s nuclear facilities to better judge if Iran is in full compliance with the NPT (see GSN, Feb. 24).  Such a protocol would “enhance the confidence of states parties and help eliminate concerns regarding [Iran’s] nuclear program,” the summary said.  But the summary did not repeat any of the charges the United States made.  The agency is to present a comprehensive report on Iran to its board of governors in June.  Semmel said the treaty parties “must be ready to act firmly if Iran does not comply.”

Semmel also expressed “concerns” about other treaty parties in the Middle East, including Libya (see GSN, April 7).

A related issue is the commitment parties made at the 1995 and 2000 review conferences to work for a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East.  The summary said the goal “remained valid” and “called upon Israel to accede to the treaty as soon as possible and to place its nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA safeguards.”

Last year’s meeting was consumed over charges of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, April 23, 2002). But this year’s summary was limited to pointing out that there “remained unresolved questions regarding Iraq’s programs of weapons of mass destruction” and that “some states parties took note of the IAEA’s readiness to resume its verification activities in Iraq.”

North Korea’s withdrawal from the treaty and its threats to resume its nuclear program presented “one important challenge from the very beginning,” said Molnar.  The committee had to decide how to deal with North Korea’s withdrawal — the only country ever to pull out of the treaty — “without interfering with the ongoing political efforts” to resolve the issue.  The summary’s wording, he said, “will not have a great significance at this point, but it is not going to cause any harm either.”  North Korea should see incentives in the wording “and see the message that is very clear from the international community,” he added.

The summary said states “deplored” North Korea’s decision and called the withdrawal “a serious challenge to the global nonproliferation regime.”  It called on North Korea to dismantle its program “in a prompt, verifiable and irreversible way” while recognizing its “legitimate security concerns.”

Semmel said this language was too weak and that North Korea’s “cynical and dangerous actions in its nuclear weapons program pose a grave threat to regional and international stability and deserves the strongest condemnation.”

This was the second of three preparatory meetings leading up to the 2005 review conference for the treaty. The 2004 preparatory meeting is expected to make recommendations to the 2005 review conference.  Therefore, this preparatory meeting was not expected to produce any concrete recommendations.  Molnar’s summary will be the starting point for the work next year.

The summary also called on India and Pakistan to renounce their nuclear weapons and join the treaty as non-nuclear states.

Only India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea are not parties to the NPT.  East Timor ratified earlier this week, bringing the total of states parties to 188.

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United States:  Senate Committee Approves Bush Nuclear Weapons Objectives

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — In passing a $400 billion defense budget for fiscal 2004 yesterday, the Senate Armed Services Committee approved new measures for developing and testing nuclear weapons that were sought by the Bush administration.

The marked-up bill, the largest ever, will now go before the full Senate for consideration.  The House Armed Services Committee is expected to complete its companion bill next week and approve similar, if not the same, measures (see GSN, May 8).

Last year, Democrats, who then controlled the Senate, blocked a number of similar measures proposed by the Bush administration.  Now Republicans control both houses, and the recent committee actions suggest that most, if not all, of the Bush administration’s nuclear weapons-related requests will prevail.

“The president got most of what he wanted,” said Steve LaMontagne, a research analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, noting that two measures approved by the Senate committee related to U.S. aid for nuclear and chemical weapons elimination abroad could conflict with language in the House bill.

Repeal of Low-Yield Nuke Ban

In perhaps the most controversial of the nuclear weapons-related measures, the Senate committee authorized a repeal to a 1994 ban on research and development of low-yield nuclear weapons.

The Bush administration has sought the repeal so it can explore designing new weapons to use against facilities containing chemical and biological agents, as well as deeply buried, hardened targets.

Critics have charged such activity would undermine international nuclear nonproliferation efforts and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (see related GSN story, today).

A House Armed Services subcommittee also approved the repeal this week, but the full committee may agree to some limitations under a compromise now under negotiation with the ban’s original co-author, Representative John Spratt (R-S.C.).

The Senate committee also authorized $15 million to continue a feasibility study on a system called the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (see GSN, March 7) and $6 million for the Advanced Concepts Initiative, which aims at improving earth-penetrating weapons.

Testing Readiness

The Senate committee also approved an Energy Department request to reduce the time it would take to prepare for a nuclear weapon test from 32 months to 18 months.

Analysts say the move suggests the administration might be contemplating testing new nuclear weapons.  Bush administration officials, however, have said there are no plans to resume testing and that shortening the test readiness time is only a contingency measure.  The United States has observed a moratorium on nuclear testing since 1992.

Critics say the move could undermine international efforts to discourage nuclear testing that is banned by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty — a measure that has not yet entered into force, and one that President George W. Bush has indicated he will not ratify.

Cooperative Threat Reduction

The Senate committee also approved two measures related to threat reduction aid outside of the United States — items that apparently do not appear in the House bill.

A waiver authorizing funding for chemical weapons destruction in the former Soviet Union garnered a one-year extension.  The waiver, which was approved last year, would allow fiscal 2004 funding to be spent on the Russian chemical weapons demilitarization program at Shchuchye in the event that Russia does not meet six conditions required in another U.S. law (see GSN, Jan. 15).

Experts say the president is unlikely to certify that Russia has met all of the conditions — which include facilitating U.S. verification of destruction activities there and complying with all relevant arms control agreements — and so, without the waiver, chemical weapons destruction activities at Shchuchye would end when fiscal 2003 money runs out.

Last year’s extension was fought and defeated by Representative Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), who now chairs the House Armed Services Committee.  The waiver was not included in the 2004 bill introduced by Hunter.

The Senate committee also approved an administration request to allow allocating a portion of the $450 million Defense Department Cooperative Threat Reduction programs to be spent outside the former Soviet Union.

Similar legislation also was opposed by Hunter last year and does not appear in the House bill, although a separate bill introduced this year in the House would give the Energy Department such authority.

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Iran:  IAEA Not Ready to Rule on Tehran’s Nuclear Program

The International Atomic Energy Agency is not yet ready to render a decision as to whether Iran’s nuclear program violates the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, diplomats said yesterday (see GSN, May 7).

The agency is still reviewing the results of a February visit to Iranian facilities, Western diplomats said.  While some observers expect the agency to report conclusively on Iran’s program at June 16 meeting of its board of governors, the diplomats doubted such a report would be ready.

“It is still at the technical level,” a diplomat from a Western Security Council member said.  “It has not reached the political level yet,” the diplomat added.

U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday took a cautious attitude toward the June meeting.

“We’ll wait and see what it says,” Bush said.  “I’ve always expressed my concerns that the Iranians may be developing a nuclear program,” he added (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters/Environmental News Network, May 9).

Technology Source

Meanwhile, there are indications that the centrifuges Iran is using at a uranium-enrichment facility in the southern city of Natanz are of Pakistani origin, according to IAEA inspectors and senior U.S. officials (see GSN, March 11).

During their February visit to Iranian nuclear facilities, IAEA inspectors were “shocked” to see that the design of the centrifuges being used at the Natanz plant were obviously of Pakistani origin, an agency official said.

“The question is, where is the factory that supplied the Iranian facility at Natanz?” a senior IAEA official said.  “Is it in Pakistan, or is it in North Korea?” the official added (NBC News/MSNBC.com, May 9).

State Department Keeps Up Pressure

Meanwhile, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher yesterday said Iran was conducting “an active pursuit of nuclear weapons” and questioned the need for Iran to seek nuclear energy facilities.

“There is no economic justification for a state that’s rich in oil and gas like Iran to build hugely expensive nuclear fuel cycle facilities.  Iran flares off more gas annually than the equivalent energy its desired nuclear reactors would produce.  States with peaceful nuclear energy programs have nothing to hide, and Iran did its best to hide all of these nuclear fuel cycle activities,” Boucher said (State Department release, May 8).

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South Asia:  Armitage Expresses “Cautious Optimism” on India-Pakistan Peace Process

After meeting yesterday with top Pakistani officials, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said he felt a “cautious optimism” that a peace process had begun between India and Pakistan (see GSN, May 8).

“I think what you’re seeing, I hope, is the beginning of a process, and I’m cautiously optimistic,” Armitage said, referring to recent moves by both countries to improve relations prior to a possible meeting.  “There is a nascent beginning of a dialogue,” he said.

Armitage also said the United States could act as an “interlocutor” in helping the two countries meet to resolve long-standing tensions, such as the disputed region of Kashmir.

“Our own endeavors here, the United States, is to faithfully discuss these issues with both sides of the equation and try [to] act just like an interlocutor,” Armitage said.  “If we can be helpful in bringing about a dialogue, that’s a good thing,” he said.

Armitage denied, however, that the United States had pressured the two countries to resume a dialogue.

“That is not the case.  It is not the position of the U.S. government to pressure Pakistan or to pressure India,” Armitage said.

Armitage is now expected to meet with Indian officials in New Delhi tomorrow (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, May 9).

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Russia:  Missile Submarine Completes Overhaul

A Russian Delta-IV ballistic missile submarine, the Novomoskovsk, has completed an overhaul and will return to service following a systems check, ITAR-Tass reported Wednesday (ITAR-Tass, May 7 in FBIS-SOV, May 8).

Russia has six Delta-IV submarines, each capable of carrying 16 ballistic missiles which in turn can be armed with as many as four nuclear warheads each (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August, 2002).

The Novomoskovsk is notable for launching the first commercial satellite from a submarine in 1998, using an SS-N-23 ballistic missile as the booster (Space Today Online).

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North Korea:  U.S. Satellites See Signs of Plutonium Reprocessing

The United States has detected smoke coming from a North Korean nuclear facility, which could be a sign that Pyongyang has begun reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods, a South Korean official said today (see GSN, May 7).

U.S. officials have provided South Korea with a satellite photograph of the smoke plume, the Associated Press reported.

Intelligence officials have not detected other signs of reprocessing, such as chemical traces or heat releases, according to the official (Daniel Cooney, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, May 8).

“We don’t have confirmation that they are reprocessing on a large scale,” but small scale reprocessing is possible, a senior U.S. intelligence official said (David Sanger, New York Times, May 8).

“It is true that signs have been detected in late April, but no additional activities or unusual movement had been confirmed since,” the South Korean official said (Cooney, Associated Press/Yahoo!News).

Top White House foreign policy advisers met yesterday to discuss the next U.S. move in the Korean nuclear crisis, and officials said the United States would probably meet with North Korean officials for another round of talks despite the reprocessing activity, the New York Times reported.

Officials previously did not believe North Korean reprocessing had begun, but the reassessment came after national security adviser Condoleezza Rice ordered an intelligence review, which was delivered to the White House in mid-April, according to the Times.

The new information will probably change U.S. President George W. Bush’s approach to the crisis, the Times reported.

“It means we don’t have forever to solve this problem,” a senior U.S. official said (Sanger, New York Times).

Japan Contemplated Pre-Emptive Attack

Ten years ago, Japanese officials examined the possibility of a pre-emptive air attack on a North Korean military facility to prevent a missile attack, Agence France-Presse reported today.

The study was conducted after Pyongyang launched a missile into the Sea of Japan, but was scuttled after Japanese officials agreed that they did not have the proper aircraft at their disposal to achieve success in the mission (Agence France-Presse/Hindustan Times, May 8).

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United States I:  Nuclear Weapon Research Survives First Round of Budget Negotiations

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives failed yesterday in initial attempts to defeat or amend controversial legislation that would increase U.S. nuclear test readiness and permit research and development of new nuclear weapons (see GSN, April 9).

The attempts were made at a subcommittee markup session of the fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill introduced by House Armed Services Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.).  The full committee is scheduled to consider the language next week.

The Strategic Forces Subcommittee, consisting of eight Republicans and six Democrats, rejected an amendment offered by Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) to prohibit fiscal 2004 funds from being used for research and development of new nuclear weapons.  The language would have restricted how $6 million requested by the administration for an “Advanced Concepts Initiative” would have been spent.

The committee also rejected a proposal by Tauscher and Representative John Spratt (D-S.C.) to require the president to provide at least 18 months advance notice to Congress before conducting a test.

The amendment also would have required the administration to explain why a test was necessary, including why other means of evaluation were insufficient, and an assessment of the geopolitical and strategic consequences of resuming the test.

Language contained in the bill, but defeated last year, would shorten the projected test preparation time from the current 32 months to 18 months.

Spratt also unsuccessfully attempted to modify controversial language in the bill to repeal a 1994 law he co-authored prohibiting research and development on nuclear weapons with yields below five kilotons.

The Bush administration has argued that the repeal is needed to explore the possibility of developing low-yield nuclear weapons to destroy chemical and biological facilities and for striking deeply buried, hardened bunkers.

Spratt offered a proposal would have barred development but not research.  He withdrew the amendment after receiving an assurance to work with committee members to find other compromise language.

The committee did pass, though, an amendment offered by Representative Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas) that would withhold 60 percent of money authorized for enhancing nuclear testing readiness until the Pentagon provides a report required by the defense authorization bill last year.

Kathryn Crandall, an arms control analyst with the nongovernmental organization British American Security Information Council, says the outcome of the markup could signal an uphill battle for Democrats interested in blocking the legislation.

“The outcome and debate of the subcommittee’s markup is certainly indicative of formidable challenges that the Democrats will face in the House and in the Senate,” she said.

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South Asia I:  India Declines Pakistani Offer to Denuclearize

Rejecting a Pakistani proposal for a nuclear weapon-free South Asia, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee today said India would keep its nuclear stockpile, but hoped to avoid a regional arms race (see GSN, May 6).

Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan said Monday that Pakistan would eliminate its nuclear weapons if India reciprocated.

Speaking to the Indian Parliament today, Vajpayee said, “We don’t accept Pakistan’s proposal … as Pakistan’s nuclear program is India-specific. … But we are concerned about other states as well.”

“We can change friends, but we can’t change neighbors,” he said, adding, “We have to defend ourselves in case of a threat” (Beth Duff-Brown, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, May 8).

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United States II:  House Subcommittee Boosts Bomber Funding

A U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee yesterday added $20 million to the defense authorization bill to keep active 23 B-1 bombers that are currently slated for retirement, CongressDaily reported today (see GSN, Aug. 12, 2002).

The U.S. Air Force had planned to reduce its fleet of the strategic bombers from 92 to 60 by Oct. 1, but the new funding from the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee would keep a total of 83 B-1 bombers in service.

The subcommittee also authorized $100 million for research and development on a “next generation, follow-on stealth, deep-strike bomber,” according to subcommittee Chairman Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.).  Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) has been pushing for such an aircraft this year (see GSN, Feb. 7; Molly Peterson, CongressDaily, May 8).

Air Force and Boeing officials said the B-1’s strong performance in Iraq and Afghanistan justifies reducing the number of planes to be retired and improving those that remain.

“I’ll be optimistic and say that (the B-1B’s war record) is going to basically improve the B-1’s long-term upgrade plan,” Parke said (Stephen Trimble, Aerospace Daily, May 7).

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South Asia II:  U.S. Delegation Meets With Pakistani Officials

A U.S. delegation headed by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage met today with Pakistani officials in Islamabad in an attempt to help reduce tensions between Pakistan and India (see GSN, May 7).

Armitage met with several senior Pakistani officials today, including Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali and Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kashuri, according Agence France-Presse.  He is expected to meet later today with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

During his visit, Armitage is expected to pressure Pakistan to end its support of cross-border terrorism in the disputed region of Kashmir, a key source of tension between Pakistan and India, according to a Pakistani official.  “The Americans would like to raise the issue of sealing the Line of Control to block movement into Indian-controlled Kashmir,” a Pakistani Foreign Ministry official said (Rana Jawad, Agence France-Presse, May 8).

Meanwhile, the Pakistani military today declared that Pakistan will maintain its nuclear policy of “minimum deterrence” and will not engage in an arms race in India.

The declaration was made after a meeting yesterday of the National Command Authority, which oversees Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program.  The meeting, chaired by Musharraf, was called “to review progress of the country’s strategic program,” a statement said.

The command “reiterated that while retention of minimum deterrence was the cornerstone of Pakistan’s national security policy, Pakistan did not believe in an arms race,” the statement said (Agence France-Presse, May 8).

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Iran:  IAEA Hears Iranian Defense of Nuclear Program

Reza Aghazadeh, president of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, briefed a closed meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna yesterday in an effort to deflect allegations of a secret Iranian nuclear weapon program (see GSN, May 6).

The United States has repeatedly accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons and U.S. officials are expected to press the IAEA to find Tehran in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

“We are reaching a point where it is going to be difficult for Iran to prove that it is meeting its obligations under the” treaty, said a high-ranking U.S. official.  “We are hoping that a vote in June … will find them in violation,” the official added.

U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton has pointed to gas centrifuges as evidence of Iran’s advanced nuclear capability (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002).

“We think … the overall clandestine way Iran has carried out this activity demonstrates why Iran is in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and its safeguards agreement with the IAEA,” Bolton said.

A Western diplomat who heard Aghazadeh’s speech said the situation was concerning.

“It was a skillful performance,” said the diplomat.  “They tried to give the image of transparency without providing substance about their nuclear program.  We think they are hiding things,” the diplomat added.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said, however, that the United States needs strong evidence to bring its allegations to the IAEA.

“For someone to be accused, one needs very hard proof.  So far there is no such proof either in the U.S.A. or in other countries,” he said (Geneive Abdo, Boston Globe, May 7).

During his presentation, Aghazadeh said that Tehran’s program was “only for peaceful purposes,” according to another diplomat present at the meeting (Associated Press/Raleigh News and Observer, May 6).

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North Korea I:  Washington Considers New Approach

The White House is considering adopting a policy toward North Korea that would combine new talks to resolve the conflict over Pyongyang’s relaunched nuclear program with increasing pressure by targeting North Korea’s illicit trade and ballistic missile sales, U.S. and Asian officials said yesterday (see GSN, May 6).

The new approach, which is expected to be further developed today during a meeting of U.S. President George W. Bush’s top foreign policy advisers, helps create a compromise between those who supported further talks with North Korea and those calling for a stronger approach, according to the Washington Post. 

“We signed up for the hard side in order to get the soft side,” said an official who favored further discussions.  “Some people only want the hard side,” the official said.

As part of the new approach, the Bush administration plans to insist that any new talks with North Korea include Japan and South Korea, in addition to China, officials said.  Such talks will also include the prospect of a policy that would “tighten the screws” on North Korea’s illicit trade activities, two officials said.

There is still debate within the White House as to how much the United States and its allies should begin to pressure North Korea, including whether to threaten new actions or to slowly begin them, officials said.  The Bush administration could also outline a progression of measures, such as first targeting illicit trade that finances Pyongyang and then moving against North Korea’s legal ballistic missile trade, the Post reported.

Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence analysts within the past 48 hours have detected increasing signs that North Korea has begun reprocessing its stockpile of 8,000 spent fuel rods to obtain plutonium, U.S. sources said yesterday.  During a series of talks with the United States and China in Beijing last month, North Korea claimed it had already begun reprocessing its spent fuel rods, but no signs of such activity had been detected until now (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, May 7).

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North Korea II:  Gallucci Says Nuclear Export Should Trigger U.S. Force

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — If North Korea attempts to sell nuclear weapons the United States should take military action, former U.S. diplomatic envoy Robert Gallucci said today (see GSN, May 6).

The United States should attempt to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the current nuclear crisis with North Korea, but nuclear proliferation is a line that Pyongyang should not be allowed to cross, according to Gallucci, the chief U.S. negotiator of the 1994 Agreed Framework that froze North Korea’s nuclear development program (see GSN, Feb. 27).

“Transfer [of nuclear materials] is the redline” for military force, Gallucci said.

During negotiations in Beijing two weeks ago, North Korea reportedly demanded steep economic and diplomatic concessions in exchange for dismantling its nuclear and missile development programs.  North Korean negotiators also told Assistant U.S. Secretary of State James Kelly that they had nuclear weapons and might test them or export them, depending on U.S. actions, according to reports.

Negotiations “start with extreme positions,” said Gallucci, now the dean of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.  Washington should pursue a diplomatic resolution to the standoff, but it would be “unacceptable” for nuclear weapons to be transferred to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, he said.

U.S. officials, including U.S. President George W. Bush, have said they support a diplomatic resolution and a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula but Washington has not eliminated the possibility of a military strike.

In support of a diplomatic solution, Gallucci also said it would be hard to detect the export of a baseball-sized piece of plutonium.

“I don’t know how we can see that coming,” he said, adding that Washington should “deal with the problem long before it gets to that.”

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South Asia:  Pakistan Offers to Restore Ties With India

Following a similar move by India, Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali said yesterday that his country would reopen air, road and rail links with India (see GSN, May 6).

Jamali announced plans for several new measures yesterday designed to help improve relations with India, including the release of Indian fishermen who had been detained after entering Pakistani waters, the return of both countries’ embassies to full staff and the resumption of cricket and field hockey matches between the two countries.  Both India and Pakistan have said their gestures could help lead to talks later this year to help resolve the status of the disputed Kashmir region.

“It is my hope that India will seize the moment, put aside the acrimony of the past and purposefully move forward with Pakistan to peacefully resolve all issues, including the core issue of Jammu and Kashmir,” Jamali said (John Lancaster, Washington Post, May 7).

Jamali said he favored a tiered approach to negotiations with India, concluding with a bilateral summit between the countries’ leaders (Associated Press/USA Today, May 7).

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan praised the moves, a spokesman said yesterday.

“The secretary general warmly welcomes the series of reciprocal steps India and Pakistan have recently taken to ease tensions and improve bilateral relations,” the spokesman said in a press statement.  “He hopes that these steps … will lead to the strengthening of peace and stability in the entire South Asian region,” the spokesman added (U.N. release, May 6).

India, however, has rejected Pakistan’s offer, calling it “completely inadequate” because it does not address the issue of cross-border terrorism in Kashmir, according to wire services.

Pakistan is attempting through its offer to return to a situation that existed between the two countries before a Dec. 13, 2001, attack on the Indian Parliament that India has claimed was supported by Pakistan, an official Indian source said. 

“Pakistan has tried to go back to the pre-Dec. 13 position without doing something tangible on cross-border terrorism,” the source said.  “This is an indication of a mindset which is not very positive,” the source added (Straits Times, May 7).

Senior Indian and Pakistani officials have warned that the chance of war between the two nuclear-armed rivals could dramatically increase if negotiations fail.

“The most dangerous moment is always when high expectations are dashed,” an Indian politician said (Edward Luce, Financial Times, May 6).

The United States yesterday called on India and Pakistan to exercise caution as they worked to improve relations.

“Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher.  “Certainly there’s a lot of good things going on and we welcome that, we’ve encouraged that, we’re working with them on that.  But there’s certainly more things to do and more things that we’ll be talking to them about,” he said. 

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is expected to arrive in the region today for talks with both Pakistani and Indian officials.  During the talks, the U.S. delegation plans to focus on the issue of Kashmir, diplomatic sources said.  The United States plans to call on Pakistan to improve relations with India before attempting to seek a solution on the Kashmir issue, according to the sources.  The United States also plans to tell India that while it will call on Pakistan to end its support for cross-border terrorism, it also will not allow India to conduct a pre-emptive attack on Pakistan (Anwar Iqbal, United Press International, May 7).

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U.S.-Russia:  Senior Russian Lawmaker Predicts Strong Support for Moscow Treaty

A senior Russian lawmaker said yesterday that he expected the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty to receive strong support when the lower house of the Russian Parliament debates its ratification next week (see GSN, May 5).

Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, said he expected the treaty to receive at least 260 votes.  At least 226 votes are needed for the treaty to be approved (RosBusinessConsulting Database, May 7).

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United States:  Air Force Considering Modifying Some Minuteman 3 ICBMs

The U.S. Air Force Space Command is considering enhancing the capabilities of a small number of Minuteman 3 ICBMs, Aviation Week & Space Technology reported this week (see GSN, June 11, 2002).

The Minuteman 3 Elite program would modify a small number of the 500 Minuteman 3 ICBMs in the U.S. arsenal, said an Air Force official.  Such modifications could include adding GPS navigation technology to the missile’s guidance system, extending the missile’s range or modifying the ability to adjust warhead effects, according to Aviation Week.  Such enhancements would be available in less than five years from the start of the program, which supporters say could be in 2006 (Robert Wall, Aviation Week & Space Technology, May 5).

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North Korea:  White House Denies Change in North Korea Approach

After reports that U.S. President George W. Bush had accepted the prospect of a nuclear North Korea and was looking chiefly to prevent nuclear proliferation, the White House yesterday denied its position had changed (see GSN, May 5).

“Our position remains the same, that the United States, as well as the international community, is concerned about North Korea possessing nuclear weapons and transferring nuclear material to others,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said that Washington and North Korea’s neighbors are in agreement on the issue.

“We do not want to see North Korea have a nuclear capability,” Powell said.  “We will continue to work with friends in the region — Japan, South Korea, China, Russia, Australia and others — to have a solid front in making it clear to North Korea that it would be in their best interests to remove and eliminate all programs and facilities that they have that would lead to the development of nuclear weapons,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo.com, May 5).

South Korean officials said President Roh Moo Hyun intends to confirm a united opposition to a nuclear Korean Peninsula when he meets with Bush in Washington May 14.

“The major premise is that Seoul and Washington will not tolerate the North going nuclear, and the two leaders will cement a common position during the summit,” according to a senor officials in Seoul.

Seoul also disputed media reports that the White House had changed its approach to North Korea.

“I don’t think the report represents the position of the U.S. government, and I have never received any notion from Washington to that effect,” said Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, May 6).

South Korea is also developing its own response to the proposal put forward by Pyongyang during talks with the United States in Beijing.  The proposal would dismantle North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities in return for steep economic and diplomatic concessions, according to U.S. officials.

“We are drawing up our final stance on the proposal presented by the North and will come up with a unified plan with the U.S. after close consultations,” Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuk said (Korea Times, May 5).

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South Asia:  Pakistan Proposes a Nuclear-Free South Asia

Pakistan yesterday offered to give up its arsenal of nuclear weapons if rival India did the same (see GSN, May 5).

“If India is ready to denuclearize, we would be very happy to denuclearize,” Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan said.  “We can talk about that, but it will have to be mutual,” he said (CNN.com, May 5).

A Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman said his country’s nuclear weapons program has always been linked to India’s (see GSN, Jan. 30).  “Our position has been that we were forced into the situation because of Indian nuclear ambitions,” he said.

Pakistan also announced yesterday that it had received a “positive response” from India after inviting Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Islamabad (Rory McCarthy, London Guardian, May 6).

While India and Pakistan have made some progress in improving relations, more should be done to reduce tensions between them, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said today, one day before a scheduled trip to the region.

“I think we have got a lot of work to do to continue to lower the temperatures for two great countries, India and Pakistan, to be able to live in peace and stability with each other,” Armitage said in an interview with the BBC.

Armitage praised Pakistan’s offer yesterday to give up its nuclear weapons if India were to do the same, calling it a “good gesture.” 

“That would be a great sign of enormous progress ... but I think we have to keep our appetites under control,” he said.

Armitage and Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca are expected to arrive in Islamabad tomorrow, according to Agence France-Presse.  They are then scheduled to meet with senior Pakistani officials Thursday, U.S. and Pakistani officials said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, May 6).

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Iran:  Bolton Seeks Russian Support for U.S. Position at IAEA Meeting

The United States wants Russia to acknowledge that Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons and to support the U.S. position during a meeting at the International Atomic Energy Agency next month, a senior U.S. State Department official said yesterday (see GSN, May 5).

U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said he told top Russian officials during a recent meeting in Moscow about U.S. concerns with Iran’s nuclear efforts.  He said he hoped the IAEA would find that Iran had violated its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and that Russia’s support for the U.S. position would help sway the agency into making such a determination.  Recent statements by Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov appear to indicate that Russia is slowly coming around to the U.S. position, Bolton said (Judith Ingram, Associated Press/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, May 5).

U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin “have already agreed that it is neither in Russia’s interest nor in America’s interest to have a nuclear weapons-capable Iran,” Bolton said.  The reasons for Russia’s concern “should be obvious,” in part because Iran is also developing ballistic missiles and “here in Moscow we’re a lot closer to Iran than I am when I go back to Washington,” he said (David Holley, Los Angeles Times, May 6).

Bolton’s trip to Moscow has been seen as preparation for a Bush-Putin summit scheduled for June 1 in St. Petersburg.  U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected to travel to Moscow next week to further prepare for the meeting (Jonathan Wright, Reuters/Yahoo!News, May 6).

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Iran II:  German Businessman Might Have Prevented Nuclear Smuggling

A German businessman’s instinct about an unusual shipment might have prevented an illegal transfer of nuclear weapons-related electronics to Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, May 5).

Frank Behlke, a German electronics manufacturer, called police in the middle of the night last November about a suspicious order his company had shipped out earlier that evening, and his tip led to a police raid that recovered the 44 high-voltage switches and led to an investigation that continues today.

The switches can trigger sound waves that demolish kidney stones or sterilize food, but also could be used to detonate a nuclear weapon, the Journal reported.

German businesswoman Eva-Marie Hack had ordered 44 switches and had insisted on a Friday that Behlke’s firm deliver them overnight to her German address.  The fact that Behlke usually sold no more than two of the switches each year — and that German technicians typically don’t work on weekends — alarmed Behlke, the Journal reported.

“When I saw ‘express courier,’” Behlke said, “I knew the triggers were leaving Germany.”

German intelligence officials said the switches were headed to Iran to be used in a nuclear weapons program.  The same officials estimate that Iran is five years from indigenously developing nuclear weapons.

German customs investigators said that Hack ordered the switches on behalf of Eddie Johansson, a native Iranian with Swedish citizenship.  Johansson probably intended to divert the switches to Iran, according to the Journal.

By ordering the switches for domestic delivery, Hack and Johansson were possibly trying to circumvent export control regulations that require exporters to monitor how their buyers use their dual-use products, the Journal reported.

Zaeim Electronic Industries Co. in Tehran, the alleged recipient of the switches, denied involvement.

“We strongly deny that we have been in the way of acquiring military equipment (or) nuclear,” the company said in a faxed statement.

Hack was held for questioning with an alleged co-conspirator, but she denies any wrongdoing.  Johansson left the country shortly after the raid on Hack’s house, according to the Journal (David Crawford, Wall Street Journal, May 6).

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CTBT:  Mauritania Ratifies Treaty

Mauritania has ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, it was announced yesterday (see GSN, April 30).  Mauritania deposited its instrument of ratification with the United Nations April 30.  One hundred nations have so far ratified the treaty, including 31 of the 44 whose ratification is needed for the treaty to enter into force (CTBT Organization release, May 5).

The CTBT Organization, which oversees the treaty, yesterday noted progress made in the treaty’s ratification and implementation.  In addition to 100 countries ratifying the treaty, almost half of the regime’s 337 planned International Monitoring System facilities have been constructed, with another 80 under construction or in contract negotiations, the organization said (CTBTO release II, May 5).

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