Anthrax:  Pond Evidence Spawns New FBI Theory on 2001 Attacks

Pieces of laboratory equipment recovered by the FBI from a pond near Frederick, Md., have led to a new theory in the bureau’s long-running investigation into the autumn 2001 anthrax attacks, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 7).

In December 2002 and January of this year, the FBI conducted two searches of a section of forest outside Frederick, using divers to investigate a set of ponds in the area.  In one pond divers recovered a clear box with holes that could accommodate gloves, as well as vials wrapped in plastic, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

The recovered items have led to a new theory on how the the anthrax culprit might have prepared the attacks, according to the Post.  Some FBI officials have suggested that the person responsible could have placed dry envelopes and anthrax spores into a sealed airtight and waterproof box and then stood in the pond to fill the envelopes, the Post reported.  When the envelopes were filled, they could have then been placed inside layers of plastic sandwich bags and removed from the box.

By working in water, the person responsible for the attacks might have been able to protect himself from the spores, which can easily disperse in the air, according to the Post.  Some scientists have suggested that the FBI should test the sediment at the bottom of the pond for traces of anthrax spores.

The FBI now plans to drain one of the ponds to search for more discarded evidence, according to sources.  The bureau has notified the city of Frederick and the Maryland Natural Resources Department that it will begin the operation by June 1 (Marilyn Thompson, Washington Post, May 11).

Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty yesterday said the FBI is interested in draining one of the ponds in the forest.

“They have probably found something that tickles their interest, which is why they keep coming back,” Dougherty said in an interview with the Washington Times.  “Obviously, they want to find other evidence.  And they think that, as I recall, they want to find other things being hidden by the muck,” she said (S.A. Miller, Washington Times, May 12).

The new theory has added to the FBI’s interest in former U.S. Army biologist Steven Hatfill, who has been the public focus of the bureau’s investigation into the anthrax attacks, according to the Washington Post.  Hatfill formerly lived in an apartment less than 10 miles from the ponds, the Post reported.

Hatfill’s attorney, Thomas Connolly, has denied that his client had anything to do with the anthrax attacks.  He said it would not be unusual for the FBI to find discarded laboratory equipment in the ponds near Frederick, where many research laboratories and biotech companies are located.  Connolly also said that someone operating a methamphetamine laboratory might have discarded the recovered equipment (Thompson, Washington Post).

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Smallpox:  U.S. Health Officials Contemplate Immunizations After Attack

The U.S. national smallpox immunization plan has effectively stalled, forcing local and regional officials to make plans for immunizing health workers primarily after a bioterrorist smallpox attack, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 7).

Although federal officials originally expected up to 500,000 health care workers to volunteer for the vaccine, only 35,000 have stepped forward so far and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now believes that 50,000 volunteers is a more realistic estimate, the Post reported.

“It’s kind of like war,” said Lynn Frank, a local Maryland official, adding, “You try one thing.  It doesn’t work, so you try something else.”

“As we get further and further away from the conflict in Iraq, it’s my sense there are going to be fewer and fewer people who will want to be vaccinated,” said Thomas Calhoun, medical director of the Emergency Health and Medical Services Administration for the Washington, D.C. Health Department.

Washington’s health department is looking for volunteers, retired doctors, pharmacists and dentists who could administer the vaccine after an attack.

“We’re going to go ahead and do this because the numbers are just not coming in, and if we’re going to wait — God forbid something happened — we wouldn’t have enough people trained,” Calhoun said.

Local health officials are now preparing to immunize the public on short notice, if the need arises.

State and local health departments have plans in place to receive additional shipments of the smallpox vaccine “on very short notice,” according to Lisa Kaplowitz, deputy commissioner for emergency preparedness and response at the Virginia Health Department.

“We’re talking hours,” Kaplowitz said (Christian Davenport, Washington Post, May 12).

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U.S. Response:  CBO Estimates “Project Bioshield” to Cost More Than $8 Billion

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Congressional Budget Office has estimated that a White House proposal to purchase medical countermeasures to defend against a possible biological weapons attack will cost more than $8 billion — $2.5 billion more than Bush administration estimates (see GSN, April 7).

U.S. President George W. Bush first proposed “Project Bioshield” in his State of the Union address in January (see GSN, Jan. 29).  The project would provide the Health and Human Services Department with a “permanent, indefinite funding authority” to purchase vaccines and treatments against biological agents in order to encourage commercial manufacturers to produce such items, according to a CBO report released this week.

The White House has estimated that Project Bioshield will cost $5.6 billion over the next 10 years to purchase and stockpile seven new countermeasures to defend against five biological agents — anthrax, smallpox, botulinum toxin, plague and Ebola.  Of that, more than half would go toward purchasing new anthrax and smallpox countermeasures, such as next-generation vaccines, the CBO report says.

In late January, soon after Bush’s address, Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Mark McClellan was quoted by the Washington Post as saying that the $6 billion estimate was developed after “a careful analysis of the threats against this country” (see GSN, Jan. 30).

Congressional auditors, however, have estimated that the project would probably cost $8.1 billion over the next 10 years — an  increase of almost 45 percent over White House estimates.  The increased CBO estimate takes into account the possible purchase of countermeasures for additional biological agents, as well as chemical, nuclear and radiological agents, currently unaddressed in the administration’s plans for the program, the report says.

The White House plans to develop a stockpile of new botulinum antitoxin at a cost of $800 million over a three-year period, beginning “in the next few years,” the report says.  In addition to the new antitoxin, the White House is also preparing to purchase doses of a new vaccine and monoclonal antibodies against botulinium toxin beginning by 2008 at a cost of $890 million.

To help defend against a possible plague outbreak, the Bush administration is considering purchasing 2 million doses of plague vaccine at a total cost of $220 million over the next 10 years beginning in 2005, according to the report.  It also says that the White House is interested in purchasing 3 million doses of an Ebola vaccine currently being researched by the National Institutes of Health.  The Bush administration has estimated that such a vaccine will become available in 2005 and anticipates spending $260 million over the next 10 years to purchase and store doses, the report says.

The CBO’s own estimate of the costs to purchase and store the countermeasures differs from that of the White House.  According to its report, the CBO estimated that the costs for the White House’s procurement goals would cost $4.8 billion over the next 10 years, approximately $800 million less than the White House estimate.  Congressional auditors estimated that spending for new botulinum, plague and Ebola vaccines would be less than the White House’s estimate because the vaccines may not be available as soon as the White House estimates, according to the report.

The potential cost of Project Bioshield increases when the possible purchase of other countermeasures is included, according to the report.  For example, the Bush administration could purchase through the project several other new treatments being developed to counter the five high-priority biological agents, such as new antiviral drugs to treat smallpox and viral hemorrhagic fevers, along with a new antibiotic to combat anthrax, the report says.  There are also  “numerous” other biological agents for which countermeasures could be purchased through the project.

In addition, Project Bioshield could also be used to procure countermeasures against chemical, nuclear and radiological agents, in addition to the biological countermeasures the White House plans to purchase, according to the report.  The CBO estimated that it could cost up to $20 billion to purchase and store countermeasures for these additional agents, but also determined that the White House would not be interested in purchasing all of them.  In the end, the CBO estimated that it would cost an additional $3.3 billion over the next 10 years to cover the potential purchase of countermeasures against agents not included in the White House plan, accounting for the larger total estimate.

Meanwhile, legislation enacting Project Bioshield appears to have become stalled in both houses of Congress, according to reports.  The House Energy and Commerce Committee yesterday canceled a markup hearing on the House version of the bill at the White House’s request, according to CongressDaily. 

In the Senate, the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee approved a version of the bill creating the program more than a month ago, but the objections of Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has kept the bill off the floor, CongressDaily reported.

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