Canada:  Decision Delayed on U.S. Missile Defense Negotiations

Canadian leaders yesterday delayed a decision on opening missile defense discussions with the United States, Reuters reported (see GSN, May 5).

The majority of Canadian cabinet ministers support the idea of cooperating with Washington’s national missile defense system.  A number of ruling Liberal Party parliamentarians oppose the idea, however, and have asked for further briefings from the defense and foreign ministers, according to Reuters.

Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien said the decision was delayed “because we are having a discussion inside caucus … there are differing opinions inside caucus.  That’s normal.”

The decision was originally scheduled for late Tuesday.

“We talked a bit about it today.  The ministers of foreign affairs and defense are discussing it at this time with the members of the caucus … so we decided to wait for these discussions to terminate,” Chretien said yesterday (David Ljunggren, Reuters, May 13).

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U.S. Plans:  Pentagon Would Have Gained Knowledge from Cancelled Test

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A high-profile national missile defense intercept test recently cancelled by the Bush administration could have provided new insight into the system’s effectiveness just prior to the system’s first scheduled deployment in September 2004, according to a congressional audit (see GSN, April 18).

The primary objective of the Integrated Flight Test-16 was similar to that of previous tests, General Accounting Office officials said in an analysis released yesterday.  The GAO produced the analysis in response to a request by Senator Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), who is the senior Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.

“The test was planned to assess the ability of GMD [Ground-based Midcourse Defense program] components to work together as an integrated element, capable of engaging and destroying a mock warhead,” GAO officials said.  The test, however, would have “provided an opportunity to assess the system’s capability under a number of new engagement conditions,” they noted.

The test also would have “increased the agency’s knowledge regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of GMD’s initial defensive capability, which DoD still plans to begin fielding in September 2004,” according to GAO officials.

Critics have charged the system has not yet received sufficient testing to be proven feasible and effective enough to be deployed, and claim the Missile Defense Agency has simplified and cancelled tests to bolster the test record prior to deployment.

Pentagon officials have asserted that the intercept record — five hits in eight attempts — shows the system could work, although they have acknowledged that elements of the tests were controlled and the system is not ready to be tested under operationally realistic conditions.  Officials have argued that a deployment of even a very limited capability is beneficial for addressing potential missile threats from North Korea.

Following reports of the cancellation of IFT-16 — which experts had dubbed the “dress rehearsal” for the deployment — there have been additional reports that three more tests scheduled for the coming years, IFT-25, -27 and –28, also have been cancelled, bringing the total number of cancelled tests disclosed this year to nine.

A Missile Defense Agency spokesman said last month that the cancellation of IFT-16 and a focus on a nonintercept test would better meet the program’s needs at that time.

New Conditions Would Have Been Introduced

GAO officials say the planned “conditions and components” of IFT-16 “differ from those in earlier tests.”

The analysis said the interception of the mock warhead would have been attempted at a location much closer to U.S. territory.  So far, previous intercept attempts have been over the mid-Pacific — much farther from the United States and much closer to the interceptor launch point, according to the analysis.  The first intercept in the new region will be attempted in IFT-17, which is scheduled for after the system’s deployment, GAO officials wrote.

The trial also would have been the first to flight test an upgraded early warning radar at Beale Air Force Base in California and a new version of the system’s battle-management software, according to GAO officials.

“Flight tests of both the battle-management software and the radar will be delayed until the radar certification flight — a nonintercept test denoted IFT-16A — which is scheduled for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2004,” the analysis noted.

With the cancellation of the test, the Missile Defense Agency plans to have a 13-month gap between the prior-scheduled intercept test, IFT-15, scheduled for January 2004, and IFT-17, scheduled for February 2005, GAO officials claimed

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Taiwan:  U.S. Officials Urge Taipei to Buy Antimissile System

Following a massive buildup of Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan, U.S. officials are urging Taipei to purchase the new Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, March 25).

China has begun stockpiling up to 75 missiles per year across the Taiwan Strait, and Pentagon officials claim that a total of 600 will be pointed at the island by 2005, according to the Journal.

“We believe it is imperative that Taiwan … acquire an integrated air and missile defense capability,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Lawless said during a U.S.-Taiwan defense industry conference earlier this year, noting that Taiwan’s “first task is to address (China’s) accelerated conventional missile buildup,” the Journal reported.

However, the advanced antimissile system has several hurdles to overcome, including a price tag of $2.7 million each, as well as a still-to-be-determined performance record during Operation Iraqi Freedom.  While the PAC-3 was credited for shooting down two enemy missiles over Iraq, it may have also been involved in the downing of two coalition aircraft (Wall Street Journal, May 9).

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U.S. Plans:  House Subcommittee Authorizes Fiscal 2004 Missile Defenses

The U.S. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces yesterday approved the fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill, approving the entire Bush administration request for ballistic missile defense but redirecting some funds to bolster theater missile defense systems, according to Aerospace Daily.

The subcommittee fully authorized the $9.1 billion administration request, according to Aerospace Daily.  It also transferred more than $280 million from “longer term payoff” programs, such as boost-phase missile defense systems, to “more near-term requirements, particularly in the area of theater missile defense,” according to subcommittee Chairman Terry Everett (R-Ala.).

The bill would add funds for Patriot missile interceptors, including $90 million to purchase 30 more Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptors than the 108 the White House had requested (see GSN, April 24).  The bill would also add almost $80 million for PAC-3 research and development, $10 million for PAC-2 research and $36 million to upgrade Patriot radar and communication systems.

The subcommittee approved an additional $37 million to accelerate the testing of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense system and fully funded the $626 million request for the Airborne Laser program, according to Aerospace Daily (see GSN, April 25).  In addition, the bill contains more than $20 million in additional funding to enhance the sea-based X-band radar the Missile Defense Agency is developing for use in a planned test bed to be deployed in the Pacific Ocean (see GSN, March 11). 

To cover the increases, the subcommittee cut funding to several programs, including a $150 million reduction to the administration’s $301 million request to fund the development of ground-, sea- and space-based boost-phase missile interceptors, Aerospace Daily reported (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, May 8).

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United States:  Patriot Batteries Lacked Data Recording Systems, Officials Say

Some of the Patriot missile interceptor batteries used in the recent war with Iraq lacked data recorders needed to track their performance, while the recorders in other batteries were damaged, resulting in lost information, U.S. Army officers said this week (see GSN, April 24).

The Patriot systems were redesigned in 1995 to include optical disks and “embedded data recorders” to preserve tactical information, according to a fact sheet prepared by Raytheon, which produces the Patriot.  However, only some of the Patriot systems sent to the Middle East were equipped with the data recording systems, and of those, some were damaged due to wear, according to Army officials.

It is unknown what effect the lost data will have on the Army’s review of the Patriot’s performance during the Iraq war, according to the Boston Globe, but the review will continue, a senior U.S. commander said.  In some instances, hard-copy records will be used, said military officials, adding that such a system was out of date.

The hard copies, which include tape drives and printouts, amount to “an antiquated portion of our system,” said Maj. Gen. Stanley Green, commander of the Army’s Air Defense Artillery Center at Fort Bliss, Texas (Ross Kerber, Boston Globe, May 8).

Radars Could Have Played Role in Friendly Fire Incidents

Meanwhile, military investigators are examining whether tracking radars generated false signals that confused Patriot operators, leading to friendly fire incidents, according to officials. 

In two incidents during the recent war with Iraq, Patriot operators thought they were engaging enemy missiles, not aircraft, the officials said.  Some Army and industry experts believe that electromagnetic interference could have played a role in the confusion, according to the Washington Post.  Such interference could have resulted from the close proximity of multiple Patriot radars, along with other battlefield electronic systems, they said.

“This is the densest battlefield we’ve seen,” said Army Brig. Gen. Howard Bromberg, who headed U.S. air defenses during the war.  “I believe there could be something there.  That’s my personal belief,” he said (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, May 8).

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