Threat Assessment I:  Terrorist Activity Significantly Reduced Last Year, U.S. State Department Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — International terrorist activity last year decreased to levels not seen since the late 1960s, according to a U.S. State Department report released yesterday (see GSN, April 22).

The report, Patterns of Global Terrorism, found that terrorists last year conducted 199 attacks, a 44 percent decrease from the 335 attacks reported in 2001.  The report also found that terrorist attacks claimed significantly fewer lives last year than in the previous year.  In 2002, 725 people were killed by terrorist attacks, compared with 3,295 fatalities suffered in 2001 — the majority of those caused by the Sept. 11 attacks in New York and Washington, according to the report.

The last time the number of terrorist attacks decreased below 200 was in 1969, Cofer Black, State counterterrorism coordinator, said yesterday at a press conference to release the report.  “This is a remarkable achievement,” he said.

Black credited the reduced number of terrorist attacks to several factors, including increased security measures throughout the world and the arrest of a large number of terrorist suspects, including more than 3,000 suspected al-Qaeda operatives in more than 100 countries.

“Lastly, I would credit the overall post-9/11 worldwide security environment,” Black said.  “Nations are on guard against terrorism.  They are sharing intelligence and law enforcement information, they are arresting suspects, they are thwarting attacks,” he said.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday also praised international efforts to reduce acts of terrorism.

“I am pleased to report that unprecedented progress has been made across the international community,” Powell said.  “Nations everywhere now recognize that we are all in this together; none of us can combat terrorism alone.  The global threat demands a global response.  Concerted action is essential, and together we are taking that concerted action,” he said.

The report also maintains the current U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism — Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Syria and Sudan.  “Despite significant pressure from the U.S. government,” the report says, these countries “did not take all the necessary actions to disassociate themselves fully from their ties to terrorism in 2002.”

Out of the seven countries, Iran was considered to be the most active state sponsor of terrorism last year, according to the report.  It notes the efforts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security to plan and support terrorist attacks, as well as Iran’s encouragement of anti-Israeli activities.  The report also says Iran had a “mixed” record of combating al-Qaeda last year, noting Tehran’s detention of some al-Qaeda operatives while providing a safe haven for others.

While Iran, Iraq and North Korea did little last year to support antiterrorism efforts, the State report noted the efforts of Libya, Syria and Sudan to combat terrorism, adding that more still needed to be done.

“Syria and Libya have continually indicated that they wish to aid the United States in the conflict against terrorism and have curtailed their sponsorship activities,” the report says.  “Their cooperation remained deficient in other areas, however,” it added.

Even before the Sept. 11 attacks, Sudan had begun to increase its antiterrorism cooperation with the United States, according to the report.  It highlights Sudan’s continued efforts, including its subscription to 11 of the 12 international protocols against terrorism and its efforts to end a 20-year civil war that helps make the country a safe haven for terrorist groups.

“They have made very good progress.  We’re very pleased,” Black said yesterday, referring to Sudan.  “There is a ways to go yet,” he said.

Black also said that Powell has recommended to U.S. President George W. Bush that Iraq be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism now that ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is no longer in control of the country.  The State Department plans to also propose to Congress that Iraq be removed from the list, he said.

Powell yesterday held up Iraq as “an example of a state transformed” from a supporter of terrorism to a possible force for security and stability in the Middle East.

“To the region and the world, Iraq can become an example of a state transformed,” Powell said.  “Instead of a threat to international peace and security, it can now become a contributor to regional and international peace and security,” he said.

Powell warned, however, that even with the successes won over the last year in the war on terrorism, both in reducing the number of attacks and in reducing state sponsorship of such attacks, terrorist organizations still posed a threat to the United States.

“Even as I speak, terrorist are planning appalling crimes and trying to get their hands on weapons of mass destruction,” Powell said.  “We cannot and will not relax our resolve, our efforts and our vigilance,” he said.

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Threat Assessment II:  Al-Qaeda Threat Diminished But Still Real, FBI Director Says

FBI Director Robert Mueller said yesterday that while al-Qaeda’s ability to attack U.S. targets has diminished, the group still poses a threat (see GSN, April 23).

“The war with al-Qaeda is not over,” Mueller said.  “We have not won it by any stretch of the imagination.  Al-Qaeda still seeks to attack us and has the capacity to do it.  Will we be attacked by terrorists in the future?  Yes,” he said.

Several actions have contributed to the weakening of al-Qaeda, including the capture of several top leaders and the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan that ousted the group from its sanctuary there, Mueller said.  “We tend to forget that was a huge blow to al-Qaeda, and they have been unable to find another such sanctuary,” he said.

One of the most significant captures was the arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammmed, according to Mueller (see GSN, March 24).  He singled out Mohammed’s capture “because he had spent time in the U.S. and knew our vulnerabilities” (Johnson/Locy, USA Today, May 1).

U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia Warns of Terrorist Threat

Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia warned yesterday that terrorist groups may be close to completing plans to conduct attacks on U.S. citizens there.

“The embassy advises the American community in Saudi Arabia that it has received information that terrorist groups may be in the final phases of planning terrorist attacks on American interests in Saudi Arabia,” the embassy said in a statement.

Potential targets could be sites where U.S. citizens and other foreigners gather, such as residential areas, restaurants, and resorts and beaches, the embassy statement said.  The embassy has advised its employees and their dependents to limit their travel to essential business.  In addition, the embassy “remains under authorized departure status for mission nonessential personnel and dependants,” it said (Sydney Morning Herald, May 1).

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U.S. Response I:  NRC Issues New Nuclear Plant Security Orders

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission yesterday issued three new orders meant to improve security at the nation’s 103 nuclear power plants (see GSN, April 9).

In one order, the commission has approved changes to the design basis threat, which is the largest terrorist attack that a nuclear power plant’s security force must be able to defend against.  Details on the changes, however, will not be released to the public, according to an NRC press release.

The NRC has also ordered new measures related to nuclear plant security guards’ fitness for duty and work hours.  The new order is designed to ensure that “excessive work hours do not challenge the ability of nuclear power plant security forces to remain vigilant and effectively perform their duties in protecting the plants,” the commission said.

The commission has also ordered new requirements for improved training and qualification programs for plant security forces, which include an increase in firearm training.  Details on the increased training requirements will also not be released to the public, according to the commission.  The new plant security measures will be effective “immediately,” but will also allow for a transition period for nuclear plant operators, the commission said.

“With the completion of these complementary orders, the public should be reassured that the nation’s nuclear power plants are well-secured against potential threats,” NRC Chairman Nils Diaz said in a statement (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission release, April 29).

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U.S. Response II:  New Intelligence Coordination Center Set to Open Tomorrow

A new U.S. intelligence center designed to improve information sharing among U.S. counterterrorism agencies is set to open tomorrow, but some experts have predicted that interagency disputes will hamper the new center’s effectiveness (see GSN, April 28).

The new center, the Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC), will involve a number of U.S. agencies, including the Homeland Security Department, the CIA, the FBI and the Defense Department’s intelligence agencies, according to the Chicago Tribune.  As late as last week, however, the FBI had not named someone to lead its involvement in the new center.  In addition, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and congressional officials have said it could take at least another year before agreements are in place granting the agencies access to each other’s raw intelligence information.

“I know they’re determined to get it going in the next two to three months on a preliminary basis.  (But) it probably will not be fully functional at least for a year, is my guess," Rumsfeld said at a Pentagon forum last month.

Some congressional officials have said the delays may help the center because of the rivalries among the various agencies.

“It will have so many enemies — better that it moves slowly and surely,” an official said.  “There are enough people out there who have a vested interest in not doing it this way.  They will be waiting for missteps so they can step away,” the official added.

One former senior U.S. official doubted that the old rivalries among the various agencies could be overcome.

“The TTIC was, in a sense, imposed on everybody, so there is nobody out there who owns it right now, and that doesn’t help,” the former senior official said.  “We were persuasive in getting the president to announce it, which is putting a lot of oomph behind it.  But I think there is going to be a lot of foot-dragging,” the official added (Cam Simpson, Chicago Tribune, April 30).

Even though the new center will help improve interagency access to raw intelligence information on potential threats, that information must still be effectively analyzed, which is a difficult task, according to experts.

One concern is the time factor, according to counterterrorism officials and ex-CIA analysts.  To be effective, information on possible terrorist activities must be analyzed quickly, which could make it difficult to properly evaluate often-unreliable sources, they said.

“Intelligence is put out, and then we go and investigate or try to collect additional intelligence to say, ‘Here’s the texture of it? … Was it good intelligence?  Was it hard?’” a senior counterterrorism official said.  “We try to work as quickly as we can to add that texture, but it takes time,” the official added (Cam Simpson, Chicago Tribune II, April 30),

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U.S. Response:  Intelligence Center Could Help Intelligence Sharing

In an attempt to combat intelligence sharing gaps within U.S. security agencies, the White House will open a center this week to funnel important threat information to local law enforcement officials, the Boston Globe reported Friday (see GSN, Jan. 30).

The Bush administration plans to open the new intelligence clearinghouse at the CIA headquarters but some critics believe the CIA’s secretive methods will continue to confound cooperation with local law enforcement.

“There is still a gap between what the Department of Homeland Security needs and what CIA is obliged to give the department,” said a congressional official.

CIA officials are confident, however, that the new initiative will address information sharing problems.

The Terrorist Threat Integration Center will provide important information to “the appropriate first responders” who need it, according to John Brennan, who will run the new center (Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, April 25).

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U.S. Response:  Cities Receive Radiological Detection Equipment

The U.S. Energy Department has provided emergency management officials in Los Angeles and San Francisco with radiological detection equipment, the department announced today (see GSN, Sept. 6, 2002).

The devices were given to the Los Angles Fire Department’s Hazardous Waste Unit, the Los Angeles Port Authority and the San Francisco Health Department.  The equipment transfer was conducted through the Homeland Defense Equipment Reuse (HDER) Program, which provides surplus federal homeland security-related equipment to state and local agencies.

“We are proud to help ensure that our law enforcement and emergency personnel have the necessary equipment and training to prepare them to respond effectively and thoroughly to any emergency,” Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said.  “And, we are pleased to provide DOE resources to help ensure America’s homeland defense,” Abraham said.

Five other U.S. cities have received refurbished radiological detection devices through the HDER program, including Boston, Detroit, New York, Philadelphia and Washington (U.S. Energy Department release, April 25).

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