U.S. Plans:  GAO Recommends Missile Defense Agency Reconsider Satellite Development Plan

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Missile Defense Agency needs to consider alternative approaches to the development of its Space Tracking and Surveillance System — a constellation of satellites designed to be a component of a U.S. missile defense system, the U.S. General Accounting Office said in a report released yesterday (see GSN, April 14).

The Space Tracking and Surveillance System, formerly known as Space-Based Infrared System Low, is intended to be a system of U.S. satellites that would detect and track an enemy ballistic missile through all stages of flight.  In its development of the satellite system, the MDA chose a strategy of incremental development, “rather than trying to make a big leap in its capability,” the GAO report says.  The MDA’s development strategy called for competition in the development and production of acquisition and tracking sensors that would be installed in the satellites and for the launch of “demonstration” satellites prior to large-scale production, the report says.

“This strategy helps to reduce risks because it ensures technology is sufficiently mature and capabilities have been demonstrated before a greater investment is made,” the report says.

The GAO determined, however, that recent decisions made by the MDA would limit the agency’s ability to achieve its original goals for the satellite system and limit the amount of information that could be learned through satellite demonstrations.  For example, the MDA decided to retrieve satellite and ground system components from storage that had been previously partially constructed, complete the assembly of these systems and then launch two satellites in 2007 to take part in larger missile defense tests, according to the report. 

To meet the 2007 launch date, however, the MDA eliminated its plans to have two contractors compete for the production of satellite acquisitions sensors and, instead, will only fund the separate development of an alternative acquisition sensor design.  This approach could result in higher overall costs for the satellite system because the MDA could be “locked in” to employing one contractor for the production of a large satellite system, the report says.

The MDA’s decision to complete the development of “legacy” satellites will also delay the development of new demonstration satellites, the report says.  While the agency could learn much information from the deployment of the legacy satellites, the MDA has already decided that it wants to investigate other designs and technologies for the planned satellite system, it says.

“As a result, delaying work on the next generation of satellites will delay work that could offer a better basis from which MDA could build operational capability,” the report says.  

The MDA’s decision to launch two satellites in 2007 was made before it had completed an assessment of the working condition of the equipment needed to finish the construction of the satellites, according to the report.  Because of this, the agency does not know what work still needs to be completed or how much that work will cost, the report says.

In its report, the GAO recommended that the MDA focus its spending on completing an assessment on what remains to be done to complete legacy satellite components so the agency has a basis for its cost and schedule estimates.  The report also recommends that the MDA assess alternative development strategies “that may offer opportunities to reduce risks and gain more knowledge.”

According to the report, the agency had considered two such alternatives, but they are constrained by the MDA’s need to participate in missile defense tests scheduled for 2006 and 2007.  One such approach involved delaying the launch of the two legacy satellites till 2008.  The second involved ending work on the legacy satellites and a shift in emphasis toward the development of new demonstration satellites.

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U.S. Plans:  Classified Document Cites North Korea as Missile Threat

U.S. President George W. Bush cited North Korea as a missile threat to the United States in a classified document justifying a national ballistic missile defense system, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, May 21).

Bush signed the classified document, National Security Presidential Directive-23, in December and the White House released an unclassified fact sheet on the directive last week.  The unclassified document, however, does not make direct reference to North Korea.

“Some states, such as North Korea, are aggressively pursuing the development of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles as a means of coercing the United States and our allies,” the classified presidential directive says.

The United States will seek to field the missile defense system in 2004 and upgrade missile defense capabilities in 2005.

“In addition, the United States will seek permission respectively from the (United Kingdom) and Denmark to upgrade early warning radar in Fylingdales and Thule, Greenland, as part of our capability,” the directive says (see GSN, Feb. 6 and April 25).  The directive also instructs the secretaries of state and defense to “promote international missile defense cooperation” within military alliances, the Times reported (see GSN, May 23; Bill Gertz, Washington Times, May 27).

Silo Construction Underway in Alaska

Meanwhile, construction is underway on several missile silos at Fort Greely in Alaska, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2002).  The silos are part of the Bush administration’s efforts to deploy limited national missile defenses beginning next year.

Workers have been lowering steel cylinders into recently dug 80-foot-deep holes at the facility, according to the Post.  Technicians are also lining the walls of the new facility’s buildings with steel plates, in part to protect against the electromagnetic effects of a high-altitude nuclear blast.

Officials at Fort Greely have identified 13,000 separate tasks that need to be completed before Sept. 30, 2004, when the base is scheduled to be operational (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, May 27).

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Russia:  Surface-to-Air Missile System Could be Base for European Missile Defense, Russian General Says

Recent tests have demonstrated that the Russian Triumph S-400 surface-to-air missile system is capable of defending an area the size of a European country from a missile attack, Russian Army Gen. Anatoly Kornukov said last week (see GSN, May 15).  The system could also serve as the base for a European nonstrategic missile defense, Kornukov said (ITAR-Tass, May 22 in FBIS-SOV, May 23).

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U.S.-Russia:  Russian Official Hopeful For Missile Defense Cooperation

A senior Russian official said yesterday he has “cautious optimism” that Moscow will cooperate with the United States to build a missile defense system (see GSN, May 15).

“It is still too early to talk about the prospects for cooperation, but I can take the risk of expressing very cautious optimism in this regard,” said the official, who is in Washington for meetings with U.S. officials.

Moscow has submitted several proposals to the United States for missile defense cooperation.  “We are hoping for a U.S. response very soon,” the senior official said (David Sands, Washington Times, May 23).

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United States:  Electromagnetic Radiation Affected Patriot Performance

U.S. military investigators believe that electromagnetic interference played a role in a friendly fire incident involving Patriot missile interceptor batteries during the war in Iraq, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, May 8).

One of the two friendly fire incidents that occurred during the war  involved the downing of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Hornet by a Patriot interceptor.  The U.S. Army’s investigation into the incident has so far indicated that two Patriot batteries were placed too close to each other, according to the Journal.

While the Patriot’s radar systems are designed to operate somewhat near each other, the two batteries’ proximity caused increased amounts of electromagnetic interference which investigators believe played a role in the incident, the Journal reported.

High-tech military equipment, such as the Patriot interceptor, is tested to determine the effects of electromagnetic interference prior to deployment, according to the Journal.  One person familiar with the investigation described the interference where the F/A-18 incident occurred, however, as “very, very intense.”

“If you look at the intensity of the radiation in that battlefield area, I don’t believe anyone would say that particular environment had been duplicated before,” the source said.

The Army and U.S. defense contractor Raytheon, which produces the Patriot system, are determining whether changes can be made to the interceptor’s computer system to prevent against such an incident in the future, U.S. and industry officials said (Anne Marie Squeo, Wall Street Journal, May 23).

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