Iran:  IAEA Begins Meeting on Iranian Nuclear Program

The International Atomic Energy Agency began its board of governors’ meeting today by reviewing a report on Iran’s nuclear development and urging Tehran to prove that it is not attempting to build a nuclear arsenal, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, June 12).

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei opened the meeting with an appeal for Iran to “provide credible assurances regarding the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities.”

“I also continue to call on Iran to permit us to take environmental samples at the particular location where allegations about enrichment activities exist,” ElBaradei said.  “This is clearly in the interest of both the agency and Iran,” he added.

Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s representative to the IAEA, said the situation would be resolved, but he accused the United States of hampering progress.

“It’s very obvious that this whole issue has been politically motivated and politically charged,” Salehi said (Associated Press/Fox News.com, June 16).

Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said yesterday that Iran is allowed to develop nuclear power.

“It is our right to benefit from atomic energy,” said Rafsanjani (Agence France-Press/Yahoo!News, June 16).

The IAEA report has raised several questions about Iran’s nuclear program, but ElBaradei will most likely work to keep politics out of the proceedings, according to a diplomat familiar with the IAEA.

“I think he (ElBaradei) wants the member states to realize that there is a technical process under way, inspections, and that he doesn’t want it to become a political issue at this point,” the diplomat said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, June 16).

Iran Will Not Sign Additional Protocol

Iran said again today that it would not sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement that would allow more intrusive monitoring of its nuclear activities.

“First, it is necessary to clarify the obligations to us that other Nonproliferation Treaty signatories must respect, and to know how the international community can help us improve our nuclear science for peaceful purposes.  Then we start talking,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi.  “We are ready to take into account the worries of the agency (IAEA), and if it shows flexibility, we are also ready to do the same and find a solution,” he added (Agence France-Presse, June 16).

The European Union, however, is expected to demand today that Iran accept tougher nuclear monitoring “urgently and unconditionally.”  EU officials are expected to link the inspections to a potential trade agreement.

“The nature of some aspects of this program raises serious concern,” said a draft statement from the union’s foreign ministers (Reuters/Planet Ark, June 16).

U.S. President George W. Bush, meanwhile, has come under fire from liberal and conservative analysts for a slowly developing policy on Iran, the Washington Post reported yesterday.

“Our policy toward Iran is neither fish nor fowl, neither engagement nor regime change,” said Flynt Leverett, a Bush adviser who left the National Security Council in March for the Brookings Institution (Michael Dobbs, Washington Post, June 15).

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North Korea:  Washington Might Push for Security Council Talks

The United States will push for U.N. Security Council discussions on North Korea unless Pyongyang includes regional powers in future talks, the Daily Yomiuri reported today (see GSN, June 13).

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said that too much time had passed since the International Atomic Energy Agency chastised North Korea during a February meeting, according to officials who attended Friday meetings between Washington, South Korea and Japan (see GSN, Feb. 20).

Kelly said the United States would push for Security Council discussions if North Korea refused to join multilateral talks or made further belligerent moves.

China has previously resisted efforts to bring the issue to the Security Council.

“China wouldn’t be in favor of U.N. Security Council talks.  The United States intends to pressure China,” said a senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official (Satoshi Ogawa, Daily Yomiuri, June 16).

The three countries “agreed on the necessity of multilateral talks expanded to include other interested parties,” said a joint statement.

South Korea, however, has said that it is more important to get North Korea to the bargaining table and is willing to wait for multilateral talks.  Japan is pushing for immediate inclusion in any negotiations (Kyodo News Agency/Japan Times, June 15).

U.S. Withdrawal Worries North Korea

The recently announced U.S. pullback from the border of North and South Korea has worried Pyongyang, where officials believe the move could be a precursor to a pre-emptive strike.

The presence of 14,000 U.S. troops near the border prevented a North Korean surprise attack because it would immediately draw the United States into a war.  This “tripwire” also served to protect North Korea, however, because the United States could not attack without endangering its border forces, the New York Times reported today.

“The term or concept of tripwire is an antiquated one and doesn’t bear a lot of relevance to current data,” said Adm. Thomas Fargo, commander of the American Pacific Command (James Brooke, New York Times, June 16).

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Russia:  Moscow to Destroy Six Rail-Mobile SS-24 Missile Systems by End of Year

Russia plans to destroy the mobile launching systems for six rail-mobile SS-24 ICBMs by the end of this year, ITAR-Tass reported (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2002).  The dismantlement effort is being conducted as part of Russia’s obligations under START.  Since 1989, the Russian Strategic Missile Troops have deployed 36 Scalpel ICBMs (ITAR-Tass/BBC Monitoring, June 16). 

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United States I:  Converted Trident Tubes to Fire More Than Tomahawks

U.S. Navy officials are investigating ways to fire a variety of projectiles from converted Trident missile tubes on Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, a senior Navy official said Thursday (see GSN, Jan. 28).

Missile tubes on four submarines are being converted to fire up to seven Tomahawk missiles from each tube.

“If we had come up with a point design that only supported the Tomahawk, it would have been a failure,” said John Schaefer, technical plans officer in the Navy’s office of the director.

The new tubes, known as multiple all-up round canisters, can fire other platforms, including unmanned aerial vehicles, Aerospace Daily reported Friday.  The canisters are designed “to support a wide variety of payloads and sensors,” Schaefer said (Nick Jonson, Aerospace Daily, June 13).

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United States II:  Energy Department Adds Guards At Weapons Sites

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has boosted the number of guard positions at nuclear weapons sites by 17 percent over the past two years by training 2,319 new officers, Energy Daily reported today (see GSN, March 21).

The NNSA faces difficulties in filling all the new guard positions, however, due to delays in processing security clearances, Energy Department auditors said in a June 3 report to Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham.  As of December 2002, 22 percent of NNSA guards were unable to fully assume their duties because of security clearance delays.

Energy auditors also found that security clearance delays have also led to increased amounts of mandatory overtime at several sites, resulting in lowered guard force morale and increased fatigue, according to Energy Daily. 

The auditors’ report also expressed concern that the department did not have adequate contingency plans to address a sudden loss of guards at sites, such as due to a strike, Energy Daily reported.  The report recommended that the department develop plans so sites could quickly obtain replacement guards from other locations if necessary (George Lobsenz, Energy Daily, June 16).

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North Korea I:  Lawmakers Say North Korea Ready to Talk

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A bipartisan group of U.S. congressmen who recently returned from North Korea revealed details this week of their trip and said they may have breathed new life into the push for a peaceful resolution to the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis (see GSN, June 9).

Such a resolution has proven difficult as Washington and Pyongyang have not even been able to agree on a forum for negotiations. North Korea has insisted on direct talks with the United States, and Washington has held out for a multilateral meeting with Northeast Asian nations, including China, Japan and South Korea.

Describing their visit to Pyongyang, the six U.S. House members said the North Koreans greeted them warmly and seemed ready for negotiations.  The three-day trip, which began May 30, was aimed at establishing contact outside the tightly controlled world of diplomatic negotiation, the lawmakers said.  Through low-pressure dinners, sightseeing, and informal conversations, the House members “put a human face on America for the North Koreans,” according to Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), the delegation’s leader and the vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.  The group — three Republicans and three Democrats — toured Pyongyang’s computer center and visited the movie studios of idiosyncratic North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.  They did not meet with Kim in person, however.

Pyongyang looked like a troubled city, said Representative Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) who brought back photographs of shiny monuments near empty eight-lane boulevards.  The city’s schools and its computer center were operating without lights, he said.  A large amusement park sat empty and still.  Nearby hills were dusty and treeless, apparently stripped bare for fuel.  The city’s hotels were empty, although North Korean officials blamed that on severe acute respiratory syndrome; SARS has hampered travel throughout Asia.

The legislators described North Korean officials as polite, friendly, and open to discussion, yet determined to let the lawmakers know that they do have nuclear weapons and are prepared to make more.  The North Koreans were also “absolutely petrified” of a U.S. invasion, said Representative Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.).  The delegation found a country that is convinced it is next on a U.S. invasion list, according to several of the trip’s participants.  “They mentioned in every meeting the fact that Bush dubbed them part of the ‘axis of evil,’” Engel said.  “They are very much aware of what happened to the first part of the axis of evil,” Iraq.  North Korean officials are now saying publicly and privately that they need a nuclear deterrent to ward off such an attack.

The congressmen were eating dinner high above Pyongyang — atop a nearly vacant sky-scraping hotel in a restaurant empty except for their party — when a top North Korean official told them that his country did indeed have nuclear weapons.  During the May 31 dinner, North Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Gue Gwan “looked me in the eye,” Weldon said.  “He had had a couple of drinks; he said, `We have them.’”

North Korea has never publicly declared itself a nuclear state, although North Korean officials have told U.S. officials privately in the past that they possess nuclear devices.  U.S. intelligence agencies have said for some time that North Korea probably has two nuclear bombs, perhaps more.  But the lawmakers said the North Koreans’ recent admission might be the most candid and pointed on record.

The congressmen said that Pyongyang’s message to them was clear and unambiguous.  “They said, `We have nuclear weapons and we are building more,’” recalled Representative Solomon Ortiz (D-Texas).  Ortiz said he is unsure if he should believe the claims, “but I wouldn’t tempt them.  I wouldn’t try them just to see if they have one.”

Relations between the two countries have taken a nosedive in the past two years, starting with President Bush’s disparaging comments about North Korea early in his term, followed by the axis-of-evil characterization.  Then, in late 2002, U.S. intelligence revealed that North Korea was operating a new, clandestine nuclear weapons program.  Pyongyang initiated a series of bellicose actions, among them renouncing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in January and then abandoning the 1994 Agreed Framework with the United States and South Korea, an accord that was supposed to freeze the North’s nuclear programs in return for economic and energy aid.  Just this week, Pyongyang said it was seeking to develop nuclear weapons so that it could reduce the size of its expensive and massive conventional army.

But even as Pyongyang continues to spout hostile rhetoric against the United States, North Korean officials told the lawmakers that they welcomed a new proposal, developed spontaneously by Weldon in his hotel room during a late-night bout of insomnia.  Weldon said he was unable to fall asleep his first night in Pyongyang so instead he sketched out a rough plan to resolve the crisis.

“I went back up to my room and I really couldn’t sleep,” Weldon said.  “I had all these things running through my head.  I said, there’s got to be a way.  So I got up at three o’clock in the morning and I went over to a pad and I scratched out what it would take to end the conflict.”

The North Koreans may have been open to the House delegation in part because Pyongyang always wants bilateral, not multilateral, talks with the United States and might have viewed the congressional visit as a version of two-way talks.  But Weldon said he made it clear to his hosts that he was not in Pyongyang to negotiate.  He only wanted to share his ideas.  The 10-point proposal, which Weldon declined to reveal in detail, mirrors White House goals to involve key regional allies in any solution and to ensure the end of all of North Korea’s nuclear programs, he said.  The proposal includes “some substantive” requirements for the North Koreans, Weldon said.

The plan reportedly calls on North Korea to dismantle its nuclear facilities, reaffirm the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, sign international accords on missile proliferation, and join the Helsinki Commission on human rights as an observer.  North Korea would also gain some benefits under the plan, perhaps economic aid, but those details have not been made public.

On the second night of the visit, Weldon presented the plan to Vice Minister Kim.

“I went through it point by point,” Weldon said.  A key component of the plan is a midpoint hiatus, during which North Korea can prove its commitment to cooperation with the United States.  “Five items to do right away and five items that would take place after a period of transparency and candor,” Weldon said.

Kim’s reaction was surprisingly positive, according to Weldon.  The plan might also appeal to U.S. officials, because it relies heavily on strict verification of North Korean compliance.  Republicans have criticized the Agreed Framework often over the years for not being verifiable, and for allowing Pyongyang to secretly develop nuclear weapons.

His plan, Weldon said, would require “transparency.  It requires them to take some bold steps.  It requires us to take some bold steps.... My goal, as a pro-defense, pro-hawk supporter of President Bush, is to find a way to test” the North Koreans.

Under the plan, a more permanent solution would be put in place if both sides were satisfied with progress on the first five requirements.  Weldon said he has discussed the plan twice in the past week with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, and the entire delegation briefed Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday for a little more than an hour.  Powell described the congressional diplomacy as “helpful,” according to Weldon spokesman Bud DeFlavis.

The plan, and Weldon’s down-home diplomacy, received good reviews from Democrats on the trip.  “I have to give it to Curt Weldon; he’s a smart guy,” Ortiz said.  Before the trip, some in Washington worried that experienced North Korean negotiators would outmaneuver the delegation.  Ortiz dismissed that notion.  The group “did a great job in Korea,” Ortiz said.  “We pulled no punches.”

Wilson said that, if anything, the North Koreans were warmer after Weldon pitched his new plan.  Other lawmakers said that the North Koreans seemed open to future talks and perhaps future concessions.  Officials told the U.S. visitors that they are welcome to return any time.  “They clearly sent us signals.  They clearly signaled that they would not be hard-nosed on this,” Engel said.

According to some analysts, the bipartisan visit was significant simply because North Korea allowed it.  “It means that lines of communication are open,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.  Nevertheless, “you can only get a deal if both parties agree and both parties think there is something to be gotten by the shaking of hands.  I don’t see the components of a deal being anywhere near in place on this.”

So much suspicion and animosity exists between the two capitals that most analysts are skeptical of immediate progress.  And some recent events don’t bode well.  In the past couple of weeks, the United States and Japan have begun to talk about interdicting North Korean shipping to look for illegal weapons transfers and drugs-actions that Pyongyang has charged would amount to an embargo, and possibly an act of war.

“Everybody has made it very clear that they do not want war,” said Dan Pinkston, a North Korea analyst with the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California.  “You can find some sort of deal, but there is the huge lack of trust on both sides.”

The North Koreans’ willingness to negotiate might be a sign of goodwill, or it could be a desperate attempt to gain concessions for a failing country.  Pyongyang typically negotiates when it is in trouble, Eberstadt said.  “The game isn’t going that well for North Korea at the moment,” he said.

Keeping in mind the troubled North Korean economy and the drastic energy shortage there, some Bush administration officials have been pushing for an economic embargo against Pyongyang to force the collapse of the regime.  But the congressmen — equally divided between hawks and doves — warned against an embargo, saying the situation could deteriorate too easily and slip into war.  The successful U.S. invasion of Iraq has left North Korea more amenable to negotiations and concessions, Weldon said.

Ortiz said he has been met with skepticism when he has told friends about the warmth of the North Koreans.  Nevertheless, he is already pushing for another trip to North Korea to reinforce the message of rapprochement.  Fears are growing on both sides of the Pacific, he noted, and time may be a luxury that no one has.  Speaking of the North Koreans, Ortiz concluded, “Time will tell whether I can really trust them or not.”

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North Korea II:  KEDO Delays Reactor Construction

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization has delayed building nuclear reactors in North Korea and could suspend the project for the foreseeable future, Yonhap News Agency reported today.

The organization recently suspended orders for major reactor parts, effectively halting construction that has continued despite the current nuclear crisis (see GSN, March 7).  Construction, however, is expected to continue on projects around the reactors.

Members of the organization, which include the United States, South Korea and Japan, were expected discuss the issue at today’s meeting in Honolulu of the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (Yonhap/Korea Times, June 13).

Powell Says Peaceful Solution Possible

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that he believes “a diplomatic solution is possible” to end the nuclear standoff.

“I am confident that, with increasing pressure and with a clear way for the North Koreans to get out of the box that I believe they are in, a solution can be found,” he said.  Powell also said that a solution to the crisis must involve North Korea’s neighbors, a stance the Bush administration has maintained throughout the standoff (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, June 13).

Japan Bars Ship

Japan today stopped a North Korean ship from entering port amid concern that cargo ships are being used to smuggle missile technology back to Pyongyang.

Authorities cited safety concerns in barring the Su Yang San from docking at Toyama, in Western Japan (Audrey McAvoy, Associated Press, June 13).

Japanese officials dismissed North Korean threats over a crackdown on loosely regulated North Korean shipping.

“We have conducted such inspections in line with our law,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said.  He said Pyongyang should react to the new effort in a “reasonable and cool-headed manner” (Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times, June 13).

State Denies Report on Talks

The State Department yesterday denied reports that U.S. Envoy Jack Pritchard met last week with North Korean representatives in the United Nations to propose bilateral talks between the two countries (see GSN, June 12).

Also, “it’s not true that he ever, two weeks ago, or any time before that, or after that, or tomorrow, made any proposal for bilateral discussions,” said State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher (State Department transcript, June 12).

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Pakistan:  United States to Resume F-16 Sales to Islamabad

The United States is preparing to resume sales of F-16 fighters to Pakistan, high-placed U.S. sources said yesterday (see GSN, May 23).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld informed Indian Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani during a meeting in Washington last week about U.S. plans to resume F-16 sales to Pakistan, according to Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily.  Indian sources close to Advani were unhappy about the U.S. decision, but did not leak information to the media for fear of damaging Indian-U.S. relations, Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily reported.

In the late 1980s, Pakistan ordered 28 F-16s, but the United States embargoed arms sales to Pakistan in 1992, blocking their delivery, according to Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily.  Improvements in U.S.-Pakistani relations following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, however, led to an end of the embargo.

The undelivered aircraft have been kept in U.S. storage since their transfer was blocked, but Pakistan will not seek to receive those planes, preferring instead to receive upgraded models (Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, June 13).

Musharraf to Visit Camp David

Meanwhile, U.S. President George W. Bush has decided to welcome Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to Camp David when he visits the United States later this month, White House officials said yesterday.

Bush plans to use Musharraf’s visit, scheduled for June 24, as an opportunity to pressure him to do more to prevent al-Qaeda from using Pakistan as a place to regroup, as well as to continue to improve relations with India, officials said.  While some Bush aides were worried about India’s potential reaction to Musharraf’s visit, intelligence agencies strongly supported welcoming him to Camp David because Pakistan has been an important staging ground for U.S. operations in Afghanistan, officials said.

“Pakistan has been stalwart in working with us to fight terrorism, and Camp David is appropriate to the strength of the relationship,” a senior Bush administration official said (Mike Allen, Washington Post, June 13).

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United States:  NNSA Chief Defends Weapons Research Plans

Defending White House proposals to conduct research on nuclear “bunker-busting” bombs, a senior Energy Department official said yesterday that the Bush administration currently has no plans to resume nuclear testing or to develop new nuclear weapons (see GSN, June 11).

“We’re not going to restart the arms race,” said Linton Brooks, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, noting that he would recommend that nuclear testing be resumed only under certain circumstances.

“There is no condition in the stockpile that would call for a resumption in nuclear testing.  I’m pretty sure that will be true next year and the year after that,” Brooks said.  “But if there were a situation in which there were a problem with a significant weapon in the stockpile, then I think that it would be irresponsible not to test the weapon,” he said.

Brooks also denied that the Bush administration was seeking to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use through the new research proposals.

“I think crossing the nuclear threshold remains probably one of the most awesome decisions any president will ever make,” Brooks said.  “And I don’t know of anything we are doing that will make that an easier decision for the president or his advisers,” he said (Will Dunham, Reuters/AlertNet, June 12).

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Iran:  IAEA Inspectors Turned Away From Nuclear Site, Leave Iran

U.N nuclear inspectors left Iran yesterday after officials refused them access to a nuclear facility, the Wall Street Journal reported (see GSN, June 9).

International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors visited the site in March and again in May, but this time they intended to collect samples to check for nuclear material, according to an IAEA report distributed last week.

The IAEA team discussed the proposed visit with Iranian officials but was rebuffed, according to the Journal.  Iran has announced it wants to build a nuclear enrichment facility for 50,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Inspectors are questioning whether Iran would proceed with building such a facility if, as Tehran claims, the centrifuges have not been fully tested.  If they have been tested by enriching small amounts of uranium, Iran should have notified the IAEA that it was doing so (David Crawford, Wall Street Journal, June 12).

A spokesman from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization denied that the inspectors were stopped from inspecting any site.

“Based on the IAEA’s letter which was sent to us, they visited all the places that were mentioned in the letter and they left the country based on the schedule which was mentioned in the letter,” Khalil Mousavi said (Reuters, June 12).

The White House wants the IAEA to pressure Iran about its nuclear program but is reportedly not pushing the U.N. nuclear agency to declare Tehran in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.  The United States is hoping the agency will turn out a “devastating” report on Iran’s nuclear program that will spur other countries to censure Iran, the Los Angeles Times reported (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, June 12).

The IAEA report, circulated this week to its board of governors, says Iran has been developing an experimental nuclear fuel program, processing various forms of uranium and not reporting the activity to the IAEA.

“The lack of reporting in this case is considered serious because it shows a consistent pattern and involves steps taken outside of safeguards by Iran to master the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle,” the report says, according to Nucleonics Week.

Iran also moved nuclear material around the country without notifying the agency, according to the report.

Iran processed some uranium tetrafluoride into uranium metal, displaying knowledge of skills needed for nuclear weapons production, and produced some uranium dioxide fuel pellets to test chemical production, the IAEA reported.

Significantly, however, the report never says that Iran enriched uranium outside of NPT safeguards.

Western officials said that Iran has developed uranium enrichment centrifuges that would not have been possible without conducting tests using uranium, Nucleonics Week reported.

Mousavi said that the uranium movement, and earlier revelations of illicit uranium importing, were not reported to the IAEA because of differences over reporting obligations.

Despite Iran’s purported failure to inform the IAEA of its activities, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is strongly opposed to citing Iran for the alleged infractions, according to sources in Vienna.

Instead, ElBaradei would probably call for additional reports on Iran’s nuclear program in September and again in March 2004 (Mark Hibbs, Nucleonics Week, June 12).

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North Korea:  Low-Level Bilateral Meeting Held Last Week

U.S. and North Korean officials met last week at the United Nations in New York where U.S. envoy Jack Pritchard urged his counterparts to agree to hold formal multilateral talks to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Reuters reported today (see GSN, June 11).

“At the meeting in New York, Pritchard sounded out (Pyongyang) about five-nation talks that would include Japan and South Korea,” said a source in Tokyo with close ties to North Korea.

Pritchard reportedly suggested a possible direct meeting during the multilateral talks, thus satisfying North Korea’s demand for one-on-one contact with the United States (Teruaki Ueno, Reuters, June 12).

Australia, meanwhile, is engaged in talks with the United States and Japan to hamper North Korean efforts to transfer illegal materials by sea (see related GSN story, today).

“It is a very difficult issue to deal with because international law requires that flagged vessels on the high seas can’t be interdicted except in the most exceptional of circumstances.  So to make a system of interdictions work, you have to have very broad international cooperation,” Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said.  “To impose a blockade on North Korea would require a Security Council resolution, almost certainly.  Though that might happen some way down the track,” he added (Fifield/Ward, Financial Times, June 12).

South Korea, meanwhile, has not been consulted on the talks and media outlets are speculating that a conciliatory attitude to Pyongyang might have kept Seoul out of discussions.

“There has been neither U.S. request for our participation in a blockade nor discussions on this issue,” said Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan.  “I don’t think the U.S. government is moving ahead with the ‘tailored blockade’ policy or economic sanctions against North Korea in dealing with its nuclear problem,” he added (Lim Chang-won, Agence France-Presse, June 12).

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United States:  Air Force Plans Continued Modifications for B-52 Fleet

The U.S. Air Force is planning a series of modifications to the U.S. B-52 bomber fleet that is expected to keep the aircraft in use for at least an additional 40 years, Air Force Times reported this week.

The planned modifications include adding the capability to carry several types of munitions, such as the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile and the 500-pound Mk-82 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM).  In addition, the service also plans to upgrade the B-52s with improved communication systems, tactical electronic jamming equipment and other equipment, according to Air Force Times.

The airframes of the B-52s also have a number of years of use left, Air Force Times reported.  The Air Force has estimated that B-52s will have to log at least 28,300 hours of flight time before the wings’ upper surfaces start to fail and the bombers become too expensive to maintain.  As of early last month, the B-52 fleet averaged 15,858 flying hours.

The B-52 fleet is a not stranger to modification.  In the past 51 years, the bombers have had their roles changed at least three times, from an initial role as a high-level bomber to a role of low-level intruder, then to one of a standoff cruise missile launcher and now currently it serves as a close-air support bomber, according to Air Force Times.

“In time you modernize (the weapon system) with improved sensors and avionics and weapons, and you can in fact change its character,” said Air Force Secretary James Roche.  “The B-52 is probably the greatest example of that.  It starts out as a penetrating bomber, a nuclear bomber, flying off the deck, rattling everybody’s fillings. … Now we wouldn’t think of flying it low and fast,” Roche said (Lance Bacon, Air Force Times, June 16).

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United States I:  Former Bush Official Advocates Low-Yield Weapon Research

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A former senior Bush administration official yesterday took aim at “antinuclear activists” opposed to an administration initiative to begin researching new low-yield nuclear weapons, saying the critics misunderstand the nature of new global threats facing the United States.

Keith Payne, who last week ended his year and a half of service as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for forces policy, oversaw Pentagon policies on some of the administration’s most controversial defense initiatives, including missile defense, nuclear weapons and the Nuclear Posture Review.

He laid out administration reasoning behind its approach to nuclear deterrence — particularly its interest in research on new, low-yield nuclear weapons — and said critics, intentionally or not, have failed to appreciate the rationale.

“It is hard to find folks less adept at thinking outside the old Cold War box than the U.S. antinuclear crowd.  The world has changed dramatically, but their arguments have not,” he said.

“Nowhere has this inability to engage in ‘newthink’ been more apparent than in the heated response to recent congressional efforts supported by the Bush administration to free up research on precision low-yield nuclear weapons, including those capable of threatening those underground bunkers,” he said, citing Los Angeles Times and Washington Post editorials.

New Threats Described

Payne, who has returned to his former position running the National Institute for Public Policy, said potential U.S. enemies differ from the Cold War-era Soviet Union in that enemy leaders now may not value the welfare of their populations or their own survival, and may make decisions based on superstition or fanaticism.

During the Cold War, he said, “We didn’t consider an enemy whose decision-making process is not determined by … external pieces of evidence and analysis, but by their feelings, by the feelings of an unquestioned leader, by political absolutes, and by the advice of some court soothsayer.”

The United States might possibly face opponents driven by “unquestioned adherence to a leader who has a bad dream” or relies on “fortune telling or astrology or all those things that underlie decision-making in many parts of the world,” he said.

Today’s potential opponents, he said, “don’t see their citizens as citizens.  They are subjects, they are consumables.”

Argues for Pursuing New Nuclear Capabilities

Such factors, Payne said, raise questions about whether the United States can have confidence in its present deterrence capabilities, consisting mostly of high-yield nuclear weapons.

“Interest in research on new, low-yield nuclear weapons comes from a desire for a deterrent that is believable,” he said.

“Some opposing leaders may doubt U.S. deterrent threats because our existing arsenal has generally high yields and a relative lack of precision,” he said.

He referred to 10-year-old legislation barring such research, which the administration successfully encouraged Congress to amend this year, as “thought control.”

“What’s all the fuss about?” Payne said.  The law “when rigidly applied, restricts even thinking … about new low-yield nuclear weapons.  Yes, thought control is alive and well under existing law,” he said.

He also said a study to consider modifying an existing nuclear weapon for improved bunker-busting capabilities and potentially striking biological weapons facilities was first sought during the Clinton administration.

“The response to these initiatives has, as I said earlier, been reminiscent of the antinuclear left’s Cold War tactics in both style and substance,” he said, which is characterized by “overheated partisan rhetoric intended to frighten and politicize the unsuspecting.”

Nuclear Pre-Emption Critique Disputed

Payne disputed charges from arms control organizations that the administration initiatives would make the use of a nuclear weapon in future conflict more likely.

“The research initiatives that I described are being reported as evidence that the Bush administration is looking for nuclear pre-emption against someone,” he said.

“It’s all familiar nonsense of course, but its scary nonsense,” he said.

Three years ago, a Payne-led panel released a study concluding that nuclear weapons could play a greater role in U.S. defense policy.  The panel included current White House Deputy National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Stephen Cambone.

The study, Rationale and Requirements for U.S. Nuclear Forces and Arms Control, concluded there might be a future need for nuclear weapons that could provide “unique targeting capabilities (deep underground/biological weapons targets)” and said nuclear weapons could also be used to “neutralize enemy military capabilities, especially nuclear and other WMD forces.”

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Iran:  Nuclear Scientists Travel to North Korea

Iranian nuclear scientists have traveled to North Korea three times this year, perhaps in an effort to learn techniques to evade international inspectors, a Japanese newspaper reported today (see GSN, June 9).

Two Iranian scientists visited North Korea in March, an Iranian nuclear official traveled there in April, and two others spent more than a week there in May, according to Tokyo’s Sankei newspaper (Agence France-Presse, June 11).

Meanwhile, a Western diplomat said inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have been obstructed from conducting inspections in Iran after inspectors were denied access to a Tehran electric company that they want to investigate.

Iranian officials, however, denied the charge.

“Everything they’ve asked for [under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] we’ve done,” said Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s atomic energy agency.

Iran also denied that is in violation of the NPT — as Washington has repeatedly claimed — and called on U.S. officials to stop leveling accusations about a secret Iranian weapons program without concrete proof of its existence (Soraya Nelson, Knight Ridder/Miami Herald, June 11).

“We do not have any site in Iran which is necessary to declare to the agency based on its regulations,” Aghazadeh said.  “In the era of satellites, how could such huge facilities be hidden?” he asked (Parisa Hafezi, Reuters/Washington Times, June 11).

The Iranian denial follows an IAEA report that alleges that Iran illegally imported uranium from China in 1991, including 1,000 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride, plus quantities of uranium tetrafluoride and uranium dioxide.  Centrifuges use uranium hexafluoride to enrich uranium into nuclear power fuel or nuclear weapons material.

Iran said it did not report the imported uranium because officials believed the amount was too small (Miranda Eeles, London Times, June 11).

Despite Tehran’s denials, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has again claimed that Iran is developing nuclear weapons.

“The intelligence community in the United States and around the world currently assess that Iran does not have nuclear weapons,” Rumsfeld said.  “The assessment is that they do have a very active program,” he added (Reuters, June 11).

The European Union will also apply pressure to Tehran to accept more intrusive inspections of its nuclear facilities, the Financial Times reported today (Bozorgmehr/Dempsey, Financial Times, June 1).

Iranian officials said they will not accept international inspectors to monitor nuclear facilities unless Tehran is allowed to acquire more modern technology (Associated Press/Washington Post, June 11).

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North Korea:  No Schedule for Nuclear Talks, U.S. Official Says

A U.S. ambassador to South Korea said today there is no firm plan or date for talks between Washington, Pyongyang and other regional powers (see GSN, June 10).

“We don’t have a timetable for talks yet,” Thomas Hubbard said.  “We are ready for multilateral dialogue as soon as the North Koreans are,” he added.

However, the Yomiuri, Japan’s largest newspaper, yesterday quoted a U.S. official as saying that talks would probably be held with the United States, North Korea, China, South Korea and Japan as early as July (Kenji Hall, Associated Press, June 11).

Hubbard also said the United States may resort to other measures if talks fail, but that does not necessarily translate to military action, the Korea Herald reported (Seo Hyun-jin, Korea Herald, June 11).

Seoul Boosts Defense Spending

South Korea announced it would increase its defense spending by 28 percent in next year’s budget, Agence France-Presse reported today.

“The increase in our defense spending reflects our plans to acquire new equipment,” a Defense Ministry spokesman said.  That new equipment will most likely include procuring new Patriot missiles, the spokesman added.

“We are not free of threats by North Korea’s long-range artillery and missiles,” Deputy Defense Minister Cha Young-koo said yesterday.

The defense spending boost will also earmark money for missiles, surveillance planes, radar, satellite technology and an Aegis warship (Lim Chang-won, Agence France-Presse, June 11).

In a measure aimed at crippling Pyongyang, an official from the South Korean ruling party has announced his support of sanctions against North Korea.

“The nuclear standoff between the United States and North Korea can be addressed as the North is vulnerable to economic sanctions from the international community,” said Cho Soon-sung, chairman of the Millennium Democratic Party’s special committee on the nuclear crisis.

Cho said China would probably not oppose sanctions.

“China will eventually follow Washington’s move because it also wants a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula,” he said (Joo Sang-min, Korea Herald, June 11).

Japan Cracks Down on Shipping

Shortly after the White House announced that it will push for allies to put pressure on North Korean shipping, Japan yesterday detained two North Korean cargo ships, citing safety concerns.

Japanese authorities detained the Namsan 3 and the Daehungrason 2, leading North Korea to react angrily.

“If this is part of ‘sanctions’ against the D.P.R.K., we cannot but regard it as a very serious development,” said the state-run Korean Central News Agency (James Brooke, New York Times, June 11).

The inspection was conducted amid suspicions that North Korean vessels have smuggled drugs to Japan and illegally carried home ballistic missile parts.  The Namsan 3 was cleared to leave port today, according to Japanese officials (Agence France-Presse, June 11).

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer today said that Japan, the United States and Australia would look into potential changes to international law to allow North Korean ships to be interdicted at sea (BBC News, June 11).

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United States II:  Air Force Successfully Tests Minuteman 3 ICBM

Early today, the U.S. Air Force successfully test-fired an unarmed Minuteman 3 ICBM from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California (see GSN, Sept. 20, 2002). 

The long-range missile flew for about 30 minutes before hitting a target at the Kwajalein Missile Range in the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean, staff Sgt. Rebecca Bonilla said (Associated Press/San Jose Mercury News, June 11).

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United States III:  Y-12 Contractor Faces Fine for Alleged Safety Violations

A company that manages a U.S. nuclear weapons plant could suffer a civil penalty of almost $100,000 for alleged safety violations at the facility, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, May 22).

Personnel at BXWT, which oversees the U.S. Energy Department’s Y-12 nuclear weapons plant in Oak Ridge, Tenn., failed to conduct required inspections last year of two pieces of equipment that had been previously determined to be “safety significant,” said Linton Brooks, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration.  As a result, the U.S. company could face a fine of $96,250, AP reported.

While the violations did not result in “actual harm,” the failure to conduct the inspections could have created safety hazards, NNSA spokesman Steven Wyatt said (Associated Press, June 11).  

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North Korea:  Washington Seeks Interdiction of North Korean Weapons

The United States and its Northeast Asian allies are planning to monitor North Korean shipping in an attempt to stop nuclear material from entering the country and missile technology from leaving it, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, June 9).

The White House is hoping to use “selective interdiction” to reduce the income North Korea allegedly derives from selling arms and illegal drugs, according to officials (see GSN, May 19).

To avoid questions about the legality of stopping and searching North Korean ships the program “will be focused on those activities which require no additional laws, no international treaties, no going to the United Nations Security Council,” said a senior U.S. official.  “Look at the Japanese, who can’t stop transfers of money on North Korean ships, but suddenly discovered they can do ‘safety inspections,’” the official added.

Officials will not make any formal announcement of the new interdiction policy, and they will attempt to avoid a direct confrontation, the Times reported (David Sanger, New York Times, June 10).

“This does not mean we are on our way to war,” said Secretary of State Colin Powell, “We are not.”

Powell played down North Korea’s statement yesterday that it is seeking nuclear weapons.

“They said things like this before,” Powell said.  “They’ve said they have nuclear weapons, and today they seem to be saying they would develop nuclear weapons,” he added (Agence France-Presse, June 10).

Last week, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said Washington was discussing the plan to cut off shipping lanes to North Korea’s alleged importing and exporting of weapons.

“As we close off proliferation networks, we will inevitably intercept related criminal activity and overlapping smuggling rings,” Bolton said (Andrew Ward, Financial Times, June 10).

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