North Korea I:  Chaos Could Follow North Korean Regime Change, U.N. Envoy Says

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A successful effort to topple North Korea’s hard-line communist regime could result in a chaotic aftermath, the U.N. envoy to the Korean Peninsula said yesterday.

In Washington to meet with U.S. officials, Maurice Strong spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about his efforts to mediate the North Korean nuclear crisis (see GSN, March 24).  He urged a negotiated solution to the standoff and warned that a confrontation — economic or military — could have dire consequences.

Some U.S. officials have been pushing for an embargo to pressure and possibly bring down the North Korean leadership of Kim Jong Il (see related GSN story, today).  U.S. President George W. Bush has also refused to rule out the use of military force in the crisis, despite the pleas of his South Korean counterpart, Roh Moo-hyun.  No one has a plan, however, for developing North Korea in Kim’s wake, according to Strong.

“What does it collapse to?” asked Strong, “what is the alternative?”

He questioned the potential of a U.S. occupation of North Korea, in the style of present-day Iraq.

“If you want regime change, change to what?” he asked. Strong also said that those who were looking for the collapse of the North Korean economy might be late to the party.

“One could contend that that has already happened,” Strong said, but “they still survive.”

Economic Solution

After North Korea is assured its security and the international community feels confident that Pyongyang’s nuclear capability has been dismantled, a settlement to the crisis must include an economic component, according to Strong.

The North Korean leadership knows it has to open its economy and “they want to join the Asian economy,” he said.

Strong said, however, that strong U.S. leadership in the standoff could provide the most lasting solution since the end of the Korean War.  Bush could “place his stamp” as a peacemaker if he settles the nuclear crisis, according to Strong. The situation needed to bring about a lasting peace has “never been more opportune than it is now,” he said.

Strong also praised a 10-point plan, recently developed by Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), which includes the dismantling of North Korean nuclear facilities in return for concessions from the United States.  Weldon formulated and proposed the plan — which Strong labeled as “very promising” and “ambitious but achievable” — during a recent visit to Pyongyang (see GSN, June 13).

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Iran:  United Kingdom Calls For Two-Month European Deadline for Iranian Compliance

The United Kingdom has begun calling on other European countries to issue Iran a two-month deadline to either comply with demands to address nuclear weapons concerns or face the loss of a trade deal with the European Union, the London Telegraph reported today (see GSN, June 17).

The British Foreign Office is concerned that the United States and Europe could come to a clash over differing approaches to Iran, with the United States favoring a more confrontational approach and European countries preferring engagement, according to the Telegraph.  In a message to diplomatic posts and some government departments, the office said that ministers had decided to implement a compromise approach that would “ratchet up European Union pressure on Iran” and issue a private warning to Tehran that the EU would end trade talks if Iran did not take action on several issues within “a clear short deadline (e.g. two months).”

“A sharp shock now, reasonably early, might act as a salutary warning to the Iranians that, as we must listen to them, they must take our concerns seriously,” the British Foreign Office message said (Anton La Guardia, London Telegraph, June 18).

IAEA to Discuss Iran’s Failure to Comply With Safeguards Agreement

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors is scheduled continue discussions today on Iran’s failure to abide by its agency safeguards agreement.  The board “might not reach a decision on issuing a resolution of concern or merely a statement” from Director General Mohamed ElBaradei until the end of the week, IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said (RFE/RL Newsline, June 18).

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North Korea II:  Powell Seeks Asian Support For Cargo Interdiction Effort

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected today to seek Asian support for a planned U.S.-led effort to interdict suspect North Korean ships that could be carrying illicit cargo (see GSN, June 17).

Speaking before an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting, Powell said yesterday that he would discuss the effort, the Proliferation Security Initiative, with foreign ministers from the 10 ASEAN members during the meeting today in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  U.S. President George W. Bush first proposed the initiative, which would seek to block illegal cargo shipments of WMD-related materials, during a visit to Poland earlier this month (see GSN, June 12).

“As you look at what happens on the high seas with respect to piracy, drug running, shipment of weapons of mass destruction, you can see that there could be a broader agenda for discussing maritime security,” Powell said yesterday.  “Whether these efforts will blend together at some point, it’s too early to say,” he said (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, June 18).

North Korea today said it would attack the United States if Washington attempted to impose a blockade.

North Korea “will take an immediate physical retaliatory step against the United States” if a blockade is established, said the state-run Rodong Shinmun daily newspaper.  War “will immediately spill over to Japan,” the newspaper said (Doug Struck, Washington Post, June 18).

While the Korean Peninsula should remain denuclearized, North Korea’s security concerns must be taken into account, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said today.

“The D.P.R.K. security concerns should be appropriately addressed,” Li said.  “This is good for all sides.  This is good for world peace and stability and this is the general consensus of the international community,” he said.

Meanwhile, North Korea today also lashed out at the idea of holding multilateral talks to resolve concerns over its relaunched nuclear program.  The United States has insisted that China, Japan and South Korea all be involved in a round of planned talks.

“We can no longer expect anything from multilateral talks that the United States is proposing,” a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said (Cindy Sui, Agence France-Presse, June 18).

U.S. officials have predicted that the five-party talks will be scheduled within a month or two (Struck, Washington Post).

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China:  Defense Ministry Planning June Strategic Missile Tests

China plans to conduct three ballistic missile flight tests this month, ITAR-Tass reported Monday.

The Chinese Defense Ministry notified Russia that it would test a DF-31 ICBM, a DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile and a Julang 2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, all from a land-based firing range (see GSN, Feb.1, 2002).  The missiles would be launched toward a target range at Lobnor Lake, more than 2,500 kilometers from their launch point (Vladislav Kuznetsov, ITAR-Tass, June 16 in FBIS-SOV, June 16).

A Natural Resources Defense Council fact sheet describes the DF-31 as a three-stage, solid-fueled, mobile ballistic missile with a range of 8,000 kilometers.  The missile is in the developmental stage and is expected to be deployed between 2005 and 2010.

The Julang 2 is believed to be a variant of the DF-31, intended to be deployed on future Chinese strategic missile submarines which are years away from completion, according to the fact sheet (Nuclear Notebook, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2001).

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United States:  Kirtland Air Force Base to Receive $10 Million For Additional Security

A bomb storage area at Kirtland Air Force Base is set to beef up security with $10 million in improvements, the Associated Press reported today.

New fencing, perimeter lights and an upgraded power system and concrete cap will be installed soon at the base in New Mexico, which is believed to be one of the Air Force’s primary nuclear weapon storage areas, according to AP.  Funding for the project was earmarked in the fiscal 2003 defense authorization bill, which was signed by U.S. President George W. Bush in December (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2002).

The concrete cap will serve to protect the thousands of nuclear weapons stored on the base from a potential terrorist attack using an aircraft.

“This is a facility that is quite near a runway, and thus it wouldn’t take much to put a plane down on top of that,” said Robert Norris, one of the authors of a 1998 Natural Resources Defense Council report that estimated that as many as 2,450 nuclear weapons may be stored at the base (Associated Press, June 18).

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Iran:  Tehran Will Only Sign Additional Protocol in Exchange for Nuclear Technology

Iran restated yesterday that it would only accept more intrusive monitoring of its nuclear activities if it received Western nuclear technology in exchange (see GSN, June 16).

The issue is the lead topic at an International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors’ meeting that began yesterday in Vienna.

“We hope that Iran will sign the additional IAEA protocol, which will allow the extension of the provision of the IAEA over all nuclear facilities in the territory of the country,” said Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.  The protocol would extend the agency’s authority to monitor Iranian nuclear activities.

“We have not yet decided about signing the Additional Protocol, but we are studying it with a positive view,” said Khalil Mousavi, a spokesman for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (Felicity Barringer, New York Times, June 17).

Iranian officials claim that their cooperation with the agency has exceeded their current obligations.

“We have been forthcoming.  We have received six inspections teams in Iran, and they have been to places that were beyond the agreement we have with the agency,” said Ali Salehi, Iran’s representative to the IAEA.

He said the IAEA should “send the right signal,” but should not “use the language of force.”

“I think if mutual confidence is attained … then I think there will be mutual confidence in all fields,” Salehi added (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse, June 17).

This was not enough for U.S. officials, however, who called on the IAEA board to pressure Iran.

“The board should speak with a very clear and firm voice in support of the agency’s work and the need for Iran to answer the questions raised,” said Kenneth Brill, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in Vienna (Anthony Browne, London Times, June 17).

Washington also rejected the prospect of sending advanced nuclear technology to Tehran in exchange for the signing of the Additional Protocol.

“That’s a nonstarter … it’s not a bargaining point.  It’s a point of living up to international standards that everybody else feels comfortable living up to,” said State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher (Reuters/Pakistan Business Recorder, June 17).

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North Korea:  Nuclear Reactors Face Delays

South Korea wants to continue to build two light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea, but U.S. opposition is making the project more difficult to complete, Yonhap News Agency reported Saturday.

“It is the government’s wish to keep the project alive by slowing down its pace, but this is a sticking issue due to the U.S. harsh position on it,” said Ban Ki-moon, a senior South Korean presidential foreign policy adviser.

Washington brought up the idea of halting the project during talks with Seoul and Tokyo that ended last week (Yonhap News Agency, June 14 in FBIS-EAS, June 14).

The project is also being slowed by a disagreement between North Korea and the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, the international syndicate building the reactors.  Pyongyang is demanding that KEDO take responsibility for any nuclear accidents.

“Negotiations on an indemnity protocol are making little headway,” said a South Korean Unification Ministry official.  “If the indemnity protocol is concluded by late August and the (U.S.-North Korean) nuclear standoff does not deteriorate, the light water project can continue.  Otherwise, the construction cannot proceed,” the official added (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, June 17).

China Supports Multilateral Talks

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing met with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan during the Association of South East Asian Nations conference today.  The foreign ministers discussed the nuclear standoff with North Korea and Li supported multilateral talks that included Japan and South Korea (Kyodo News Agency/Japan Today, June 17).

Pyongyang Says Blockade Means War

North Korea said today that Washington is “laying an international siege to the North and putting a blockade against it as a premeditated scheme to start a new war on the Korean Peninsula.”

Pyongyang also warned that it will take “physical retaliation” if the alleged blockade violates its sovereignty (Sang-hun Choe, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 17).

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International Response:  Washington Seeking to Boost IAEA Budget

The United States is pushing to increase the budget of the U.N. nuclear inspection agency by 25 percent, the Financial Times reported today.

The proposed boost would equal about $30 million for the International Atomic Energy Agency, $20 million of which would go toward the nuclear safeguards program.  The proposed budget increase would cover increased monitoring efforts in Iran and North Korea, according to the Financial Times (Financial Times, June 16).

The move is out of character for U.S. leaders, according to David Waller, the deputy director general of the IAEA and the manager of the agency’s financial affairs.

“It is a pretty unique situation (compared to other U.N. groups),” Waller said.

The IAEA operates with a budget of $250 million, of which $80 million is earmarked for the safeguards program.  Last year, the safeguards funding was augmented with $19 million, which came mostly from Washington, but agency officials have complained that this extra funding is unreliable and comes with strings attached.

IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei proposed the $20 million boost for the safeguards program, and the United States, Britain and France back the idea.  Other countries, however, have said that domestic financial problems will not allow them to contribute (Gillian Tett, Financial Times, June 17).

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Iran:  IAEA Begins Meeting on Iranian Nuclear Program

The International Atomic Energy Agency began its board of governors’ meeting today by reviewing a report on Iran’s nuclear development and urging Tehran to prove that it is not attempting to build a nuclear arsenal, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, June 12).

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei opened the meeting with an appeal for Iran to “provide credible assurances regarding the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities.”

“I also continue to call on Iran to permit us to take environmental samples at the particular location where allegations about enrichment activities exist,” ElBaradei said.  “This is clearly in the interest of both the agency and Iran,” he added.

Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s representative to the IAEA, said the situation would be resolved, but he accused the United States of hampering progress.

“It’s very obvious that this whole issue has been politically motivated and politically charged,” Salehi said (Associated Press/Fox News.com, June 16).

Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said yesterday that Iran is allowed to develop nuclear power.

“It is our right to benefit from atomic energy,” said Rafsanjani (Agence France-Press/Yahoo!News, June 16).

The IAEA report has raised several questions about Iran’s nuclear program, but ElBaradei will most likely work to keep politics out of the proceedings, according to a diplomat familiar with the IAEA.

“I think he (ElBaradei) wants the member states to realize that there is a technical process under way, inspections, and that he doesn’t want it to become a political issue at this point,” the diplomat said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, June 16).

Iran Will Not Sign Additional Protocol

Iran said again today that it would not sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement that would allow more intrusive monitoring of its nuclear activities.

“First, it is necessary to clarify the obligations to us that other Nonproliferation Treaty signatories must respect, and to know how the international community can help us improve our nuclear science for peaceful purposes.  Then we start talking,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi.  “We are ready to take into account the worries of the agency (IAEA), and if it shows flexibility, we are also ready to do the same and find a solution,” he added (Agence France-Presse, June 16).

The European Union, however, is expected to demand today that Iran accept tougher nuclear monitoring “urgently and unconditionally.”  EU officials are expected to link the inspections to a potential trade agreement.

“The nature of some aspects of this program raises serious concern,” said a draft statement from the union’s foreign ministers (Reuters/Planet Ark, June 16).

U.S. President George W. Bush, meanwhile, has come under fire from liberal and conservative analysts for a slowly developing policy on Iran, the Washington Post reported yesterday.

“Our policy toward Iran is neither fish nor fowl, neither engagement nor regime change,” said Flynt Leverett, a Bush adviser who left the National Security Council in March for the Brookings Institution (Michael Dobbs, Washington Post, June 15).

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North Korea:  Washington Might Push for Security Council Talks

The United States will push for U.N. Security Council discussions on North Korea unless Pyongyang includes regional powers in future talks, the Daily Yomiuri reported today (see GSN, June 13).

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said that too much time had passed since the International Atomic Energy Agency chastised North Korea during a February meeting, according to officials who attended Friday meetings between Washington, South Korea and Japan (see GSN, Feb. 20).

Kelly said the United States would push for Security Council discussions if North Korea refused to join multilateral talks or made further belligerent moves.

China has previously resisted efforts to bring the issue to the Security Council.

“China wouldn’t be in favor of U.N. Security Council talks.  The United States intends to pressure China,” said a senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official (Satoshi Ogawa, Daily Yomiuri, June 16).

The three countries “agreed on the necessity of multilateral talks expanded to include other interested parties,” said a joint statement.

South Korea, however, has said that it is more important to get North Korea to the bargaining table and is willing to wait for multilateral talks.  Japan is pushing for immediate inclusion in any negotiations (Kyodo News Agency/Japan Times, June 15).

U.S. Withdrawal Worries North Korea

The recently announced U.S. pullback from the border of North and South Korea has worried Pyongyang, where officials believe the move could be a precursor to a pre-emptive strike.

The presence of 14,000 U.S. troops near the border prevented a North Korean surprise attack because it would immediately draw the United States into a war.  This “tripwire” also served to protect North Korea, however, because the United States could not attack without endangering its border forces, the New York Times reported today.

“The term or concept of tripwire is an antiquated one and doesn’t bear a lot of relevance to current data,” said Adm. Thomas Fargo, commander of the American Pacific Command (James Brooke, New York Times, June 16).

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Russia:  Moscow to Destroy Six Rail-Mobile SS-24 Missile Systems by End of Year

Russia plans to destroy the mobile launching systems for six rail-mobile SS-24 ICBMs by the end of this year, ITAR-Tass reported (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2002).  The dismantlement effort is being conducted as part of Russia’s obligations under START.  Since 1989, the Russian Strategic Missile Troops have deployed 36 Scalpel ICBMs (ITAR-Tass/BBC Monitoring, June 16). 

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United States I:  Converted Trident Tubes to Fire More Than Tomahawks

U.S. Navy officials are investigating ways to fire a variety of projectiles from converted Trident missile tubes on Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, a senior Navy official said Thursday (see GSN, Jan. 28).

Missile tubes on four submarines are being converted to fire up to seven Tomahawk missiles from each tube.

“If we had come up with a point design that only supported the Tomahawk, it would have been a failure,” said John Schaefer, technical plans officer in the Navy’s office of the director.

The new tubes, known as multiple all-up round canisters, can fire other platforms, including unmanned aerial vehicles, Aerospace Daily reported Friday.  The canisters are designed “to support a wide variety of payloads and sensors,” Schaefer said (Nick Jonson, Aerospace Daily, June 13).

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United States II:  Energy Department Adds Guards At Weapons Sites

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has boosted the number of guard positions at nuclear weapons sites by 17 percent over the past two years by training 2,319 new officers, Energy Daily reported today (see GSN, March 21).

The NNSA faces difficulties in filling all the new guard positions, however, due to delays in processing security clearances, Energy Department auditors said in a June 3 report to Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham.  As of December 2002, 22 percent of NNSA guards were unable to fully assume their duties because of security clearance delays.

Energy auditors also found that security clearance delays have also led to increased amounts of mandatory overtime at several sites, resulting in lowered guard force morale and increased fatigue, according to Energy Daily. 

The auditors’ report also expressed concern that the department did not have adequate contingency plans to address a sudden loss of guards at sites, such as due to a strike, Energy Daily reported.  The report recommended that the department develop plans so sites could quickly obtain replacement guards from other locations if necessary (George Lobsenz, Energy Daily, June 16).

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North Korea I:  Lawmakers Say North Korea Ready to Talk

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A bipartisan group of U.S. congressmen who recently returned from North Korea revealed details this week of their trip and said they may have breathed new life into the push for a peaceful resolution to the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis (see GSN, June 9).

Such a resolution has proven difficult as Washington and Pyongyang have not even been able to agree on a forum for negotiations. North Korea has insisted on direct talks with the United States, and Washington has held out for a multilateral meeting with Northeast Asian nations, including China, Japan and South Korea.

Describing their visit to Pyongyang, the six U.S. House members said the North Koreans greeted them warmly and seemed ready for negotiations.  The three-day trip, which began May 30, was aimed at establishing contact outside the tightly controlled world of diplomatic negotiation, the lawmakers said.  Through low-pressure dinners, sightseeing, and informal conversations, the House members “put a human face on America for the North Koreans,” according to Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), the delegation’s leader and the vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.  The group — three Republicans and three Democrats — toured Pyongyang’s computer center and visited the movie studios of idiosyncratic North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.  They did not meet with Kim in person, however.

Pyongyang looked like a troubled city, said Representative Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) who brought back photographs of shiny monuments near empty eight-lane boulevards.  The city’s schools and its computer center were operating without lights, he said.  A large amusement park sat empty and still.  Nearby hills were dusty and treeless, apparently stripped bare for fuel.  The city’s hotels were empty, although North Korean officials blamed that on severe acute respiratory syndrome; SARS has hampered travel throughout Asia.

The legislators described North Korean officials as polite, friendly, and open to discussion, yet determined to let the lawmakers know that they do have nuclear weapons and are prepared to make more.  The North Koreans were also “absolutely petrified” of a U.S. invasion, said Representative Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.).  The delegation found a country that is convinced it is next on a U.S. invasion list, according to several of the trip’s participants.  “They mentioned in every meeting the fact that Bush dubbed them part of the ‘axis of evil,’” Engel said.  “They are very much aware of what happened to the first part of the axis of evil,” Iraq.  North Korean officials are now saying publicly and privately that they need a nuclear deterrent to ward off such an attack.

The congressmen were eating dinner high above Pyongyang — atop a nearly vacant sky-scraping hotel in a restaurant empty except for their party — when a top North Korean official told them that his country did indeed have nuclear weapons.  During the May 31 dinner, North Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Gue Gwan “looked me in the eye,” Weldon said.  “He had had a couple of drinks; he said, `We have them.’”

North Korea has never publicly declared itself a nuclear state, although North Korean officials have told U.S. officials privately in the past that they possess nuclear devices.  U.S. intelligence agencies have said for some time that North Korea probably has two nuclear bombs, perhaps more.  But the lawmakers said the North Koreans’ recent admission might be the most candid and pointed on record.

The congressmen said that Pyongyang’s message to them was clear and unambiguous.  “They said, `We have nuclear weapons and we are building more,’” recalled Representative Solomon Ortiz (D-Texas).  Ortiz said he is unsure if he should believe the claims, “but I wouldn’t tempt them.  I wouldn’t try them just to see if they have one.”

Relations between the two countries have taken a nosedive in the past two years, starting with President Bush’s disparaging comments about North Korea early in his term, followed by the axis-of-evil characterization.  Then, in late 2002, U.S. intelligence revealed that North Korea was operating a new, clandestine nuclear weapons program.  Pyongyang initiated a series of bellicose actions, among them renouncing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in January and then abandoning the 1994 Agreed Framework with the United States and South Korea, an accord that was supposed to freeze the North’s nuclear programs in return for economic and energy aid.  Just this week, Pyongyang said it was seeking to develop nuclear weapons so that it could reduce the size of its expensive and massive conventional army.

But even as Pyongyang continues to spout hostile rhetoric against the United States, North Korean officials told the lawmakers that they welcomed a new proposal, developed spontaneously by Weldon in his hotel room during a late-night bout of insomnia.  Weldon said he was unable to fall asleep his first night in Pyongyang so instead he sketched out a rough plan to resolve the crisis.

“I went back up to my room and I really couldn’t sleep,” Weldon said.  “I had all these things running through my head.  I said, there’s got to be a way.  So I got up at three o’clock in the morning and I went over to a pad and I scratched out what it would take to end the conflict.”

The North Koreans may have been open to the House delegation in part because Pyongyang always wants bilateral, not multilateral, talks with the United States and might have viewed the congressional visit as a version of two-way talks.  But Weldon said he made it clear to his hosts that he was not in Pyongyang to negotiate.  He only wanted to share his ideas.  The 10-point proposal, which Weldon declined to reveal in detail, mirrors White House goals to involve key regional allies in any solution and to ensure the end of all of North Korea’s nuclear programs, he said.  The proposal includes “some substantive” requirements for the North Koreans, Weldon said.

The plan reportedly calls on North Korea to dismantle its nuclear facilities, reaffirm the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, sign international accords on missile proliferation, and join the Helsinki Commission on human rights as an observer.  North Korea would also gain some benefits under the plan, perhaps economic aid, but those details have not been made public.

On the second night of the visit, Weldon presented the plan to Vice Minister Kim.

“I went through it point by point,” Weldon said.  A key component of the plan is a midpoint hiatus, during which North Korea can prove its commitment to cooperation with the United States.  “Five items to do right away and five items that would take place after a period of transparency and candor,” Weldon said.

Kim’s reaction was surprisingly positive, according to Weldon.  The plan might also appeal to U.S. officials, because it relies heavily on strict verification of North Korean compliance.  Republicans have criticized the Agreed Framework often over the years for not being verifiable, and for allowing Pyongyang to secretly develop nuclear weapons.

His plan, Weldon said, would require “transparency.  It requires them to take some bold steps.  It requires us to take some bold steps.... My goal, as a pro-defense, pro-hawk supporter of President Bush, is to find a way to test” the North Koreans.

Under the plan, a more permanent solution would be put in place if both sides were satisfied with progress on the first five requirements.  Weldon said he has discussed the plan twice in the past week with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, and the entire delegation briefed Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday for a little more than an hour.  Powell described the congressional diplomacy as “helpful,” according to Weldon spokesman Bud DeFlavis.

The plan, and Weldon’s down-home diplomacy, received good reviews from Democrats on the trip.  “I have to give it to Curt Weldon; he’s a smart guy,” Ortiz said.  Before the trip, some in Washington worried that experienced North Korean negotiators would outmaneuver the delegation.  Ortiz dismissed that notion.  The group “did a great job in Korea,” Ortiz said.  “We pulled no punches.”

Wilson said that, if anything, the North Koreans were warmer after Weldon pitched his new plan.  Other lawmakers said that the North Koreans seemed open to future talks and perhaps future concessions.  Officials told the U.S. visitors that they are welcome to return any time.  “They clearly sent us signals.  They clearly signaled that they would not be hard-nosed on this,” Engel said.

According to some analysts, the bipartisan visit was significant simply because North Korea allowed it.  “It means that lines of communication are open,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.  Nevertheless, “you can only get a deal if both parties agree and both parties think there is something to be gotten by the shaking of hands.  I don’t see the components of a deal being anywhere near in place on this.”

So much suspicion and animosity exists between the two capitals that most analysts are skeptical of immediate progress.  And some recent events don’t bode well.  In the past couple of weeks, the United States and Japan have begun to talk about interdicting North Korean shipping to look for illegal weapons transfers and drugs-actions that Pyongyang has charged would amount to an embargo, and possibly an act of war.

“Everybody has made it very clear that they do not want war,” said Dan Pinkston, a North Korea analyst with the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California.  “You can find some sort of deal, but there is the huge lack of trust on both sides.”

The North Koreans’ willingness to negotiate might be a sign of goodwill, or it could be a desperate attempt to gain concessions for a failing country.  Pyongyang typically negotiates when it is in trouble, Eberstadt said.  “The game isn’t going that well for North Korea at the moment,” he said.

Keeping in mind the troubled North Korean economy and the drastic energy shortage there, some Bush administration officials have been pushing for an economic embargo against Pyongyang to force the collapse of the regime.  But the congressmen — equally divided between hawks and doves — warned against an embargo, saying the situation could deteriorate too easily and slip into war.  The successful U.S. invasion of Iraq has left North Korea more amenable to negotiations and concessions, Weldon said.

Ortiz said he has been met with skepticism when he has told friends about the warmth of the North Koreans.  Nevertheless, he is already pushing for another trip to North Korea to reinforce the message of rapprochement.  Fears are growing on both sides of the Pacific, he noted, and time may be a luxury that no one has.  Speaking of the North Koreans, Ortiz concluded, “Time will tell whether I can really trust them or not.”

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North Korea II:  KEDO Delays Reactor Construction

The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization has delayed building nuclear reactors in North Korea and could suspend the project for the foreseeable future, Yonhap News Agency reported today.

The organization recently suspended orders for major reactor parts, effectively halting construction that has continued despite the current nuclear crisis (see GSN, March 7).  Construction, however, is expected to continue on projects around the reactors.

Members of the organization, which include the United States, South Korea and Japan, were expected discuss the issue at today’s meeting in Honolulu of the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (Yonhap/Korea Times, June 13).

Powell Says Peaceful Solution Possible

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that he believes “a diplomatic solution is possible” to end the nuclear standoff.

“I am confident that, with increasing pressure and with a clear way for the North Koreans to get out of the box that I believe they are in, a solution can be found,” he said.  Powell also said that a solution to the crisis must involve North Korea’s neighbors, a stance the Bush administration has maintained throughout the standoff (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, June 13).

Japan Bars Ship

Japan today stopped a North Korean ship from entering port amid concern that cargo ships are being used to smuggle missile technology back to Pyongyang.

Authorities cited safety concerns in barring the Su Yang San from docking at Toyama, in Western Japan (Audrey McAvoy, Associated Press, June 13).

Japanese officials dismissed North Korean threats over a crackdown on loosely regulated North Korean shipping.

“We have conducted such inspections in line with our law,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said.  He said Pyongyang should react to the new effort in a “reasonable and cool-headed manner” (Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times, June 13).

State Denies Report on Talks

The State Department yesterday denied reports that U.S. Envoy Jack Pritchard met last week with North Korean representatives in the United Nations to propose bilateral talks between the two countries (see GSN, June 12).

Also, “it’s not true that he ever, two weeks ago, or any time before that, or after that, or tomorrow, made any proposal for bilateral discussions,” said State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher (State Department transcript, June 12).

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Pakistan:  United States to Resume F-16 Sales to Islamabad

The United States is preparing to resume sales of F-16 fighters to Pakistan, high-placed U.S. sources said yesterday (see GSN, May 23).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld informed Indian Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani during a meeting in Washington last week about U.S. plans to resume F-16 sales to Pakistan, according to Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily.  Indian sources close to Advani were unhappy about the U.S. decision, but did not leak information to the media for fear of damaging Indian-U.S. relations, Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily reported.

In the late 1980s, Pakistan ordered 28 F-16s, but the United States embargoed arms sales to Pakistan in 1992, blocking their delivery, according to Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily.  Improvements in U.S.-Pakistani relations following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, however, led to an end of the embargo.

The undelivered aircraft have been kept in U.S. storage since their transfer was blocked, but Pakistan will not seek to receive those planes, preferring instead to receive upgraded models (Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, June 13).

Musharraf to Visit Camp David

Meanwhile, U.S. President George W. Bush has decided to welcome Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to Camp David when he visits the United States later this month, White House officials said yesterday.

Bush plans to use Musharraf’s visit, scheduled for June 24, as an opportunity to pressure him to do more to prevent al-Qaeda from using Pakistan as a place to regroup, as well as to continue to improve relations with India, officials said.  While some Bush aides were worried about India’s potential reaction to Musharraf’s visit, intelligence agencies strongly supported welcoming him to Camp David because Pakistan has been an important staging ground for U.S. operations in Afghanistan, officials said.

“Pakistan has been stalwart in working with us to fight terrorism, and Camp David is appropriate to the strength of the relationship,” a senior Bush administration official said (Mike Allen, Washington Post, June 13).

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United States:  NNSA Chief Defends Weapons Research Plans

Defending White House proposals to conduct research on nuclear “bunker-busting” bombs, a senior Energy Department official said yesterday that the Bush administration currently has no plans to resume nuclear testing or to develop new nuclear weapons (see GSN, June 11).

“We’re not going to restart the arms race,” said Linton Brooks, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, noting that he would recommend that nuclear testing be resumed only under certain circumstances.

“There is no condition in the stockpile that would call for a resumption in nuclear testing.  I’m pretty sure that will be true next year and the year after that,” Brooks said.  “But if there were a situation in which there were a problem with a significant weapon in the stockpile, then I think that it would be irresponsible not to test the weapon,” he said.

Brooks also denied that the Bush administration was seeking to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use through the new research proposals.

“I think crossing the nuclear threshold remains probably one of the most awesome decisions any president will ever make,” Brooks said.  “And I don’t know of anything we are doing that will make that an easier decision for the president or his advisers,” he said (Will Dunham, Reuters/AlertNet, June 12).

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Iran:  IAEA Inspectors Turned Away From Nuclear Site, Leave Iran

U.N nuclear inspectors left Iran yesterday after officials refused them access to a nuclear facility, the Wall Street Journal reported (see GSN, June 9).

International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors visited the site in March and again in May, but this time they intended to collect samples to check for nuclear material, according to an IAEA report distributed last week.

The IAEA team discussed the proposed visit with Iranian officials but was rebuffed, according to the Journal.  Iran has announced it wants to build a nuclear enrichment facility for 50,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Inspectors are questioning whether Iran would proceed with building such a facility if, as Tehran claims, the centrifuges have not been fully tested.  If they have been tested by enriching small amounts of uranium, Iran should have notified the IAEA that it was doing so (David Crawford, Wall Street Journal, June 12).

A spokesman from Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization denied that the inspectors were stopped from inspecting any site.

“Based on the IAEA’s letter which was sent to us, they visited all the places that were mentioned in the letter and they left the country based on the schedule which was mentioned in the letter,” Khalil Mousavi said (Reuters, June 12).

The White House wants the IAEA to pressure Iran about its nuclear program but is reportedly not pushing the U.N. nuclear agency to declare Tehran in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.  The United States is hoping the agency will turn out a “devastating” report on Iran’s nuclear program that will spur other countries to censure Iran, the Los Angeles Times reported (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, June 12).

The IAEA report, circulated this week to its board of governors, says Iran has been developing an experimental nuclear fuel program, processing various forms of uranium and not reporting the activity to the IAEA.

“The lack of reporting in this case is considered serious because it shows a consistent pattern and involves steps taken outside of safeguards by Iran to master the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle,” the report says, according to Nucleonics Week.

Iran also moved nuclear material around the country without notifying the agency, according to the report.

Iran processed some uranium tetrafluoride into uranium metal, displaying knowledge of skills needed for nuclear weapons production, and produced some uranium dioxide fuel pellets to test chemical production, the IAEA reported.

Significantly, however, the report never says that Iran enriched uranium outside of NPT safeguards.

Western officials said that Iran has developed uranium enrichment centrifuges that would not have been possible without conducting tests using uranium, Nucleonics Week reported.

Mousavi said that the uranium movement, and earlier revelations of illicit uranium importing, were not reported to the IAEA because of differences over reporting obligations.

Despite Iran’s purported failure to inform the IAEA of its activities, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is strongly opposed to citing Iran for the alleged infractions, according to sources in Vienna.

Instead, ElBaradei would probably call for additional reports on Iran’s nuclear program in September and again in March 2004 (Mark Hibbs, Nucleonics Week, June 12).

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North Korea:  Low-Level Bilateral Meeting Held Last Week

U.S. and North Korean officials met last week at the United Nations in New York where U.S. envoy Jack Pritchard urged his counterparts to agree to hold formal multilateral talks to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Reuters reported today (see GSN, June 11).

“At the meeting in New York, Pritchard sounded out (Pyongyang) about five-nation talks that would include Japan and South Korea,” said a source in Tokyo with close ties to North Korea.

Pritchard reportedly suggested a possible direct meeting during the multilateral talks, thus satisfying North Korea’s demand for one-on-one contact with the United States (Teruaki Ueno, Reuters, June 12).

Australia, meanwhile, is engaged in talks with the United States and Japan to hamper North Korean efforts to transfer illegal materials by sea (see related GSN story, today).

“It is a very difficult issue to deal with because international law requires that flagged vessels on the high seas can’t be interdicted except in the most exceptional of circumstances.  So to make a system of interdictions work, you have to have very broad international cooperation,” Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said.  “To impose a blockade on North Korea would require a Security Council resolution, almost certainly.  Though that might happen some way down the track,” he added (Fifield/Ward, Financial Times, June 12).

South Korea, meanwhile, has not been consulted on the talks and media outlets are speculating that a conciliatory attitude to Pyongyang might have kept Seoul out of discussions.

“There has been neither U.S. request for our participation in a blockade nor discussions on this issue,” said Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan.  “I don’t think the U.S. government is moving ahead with the ‘tailored blockade’ policy or economic sanctions against North Korea in dealing with its nuclear problem,” he added (Lim Chang-won, Agence France-Presse, June 12).

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United States:  Air Force Plans Continued Modifications for B-52 Fleet

The U.S. Air Force is planning a series of modifications to the U.S. B-52 bomber fleet that is expected to keep the aircraft in use for at least an additional 40 years, Air Force Times reported this week.

The planned modifications include adding the capability to carry several types of munitions, such as the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile and the 500-pound Mk-82 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM).  In addition, the service also plans to upgrade the B-52s with improved communication systems, tactical electronic jamming equipment and other equipment, according to Air Force Times.

The airframes of the B-52s also have a number of years of use left, Air Force Times reported.  The Air Force has estimated that B-52s will have to log at least 28,300 hours of flight time before the wings’ upper surfaces start to fail and the bombers become too expensive to maintain.  As of early last month, the B-52 fleet averaged 15,858 flying hours.

The B-52 fleet is a not stranger to modification.  In the past 51 years, the bombers have had their roles changed at least three times, from an initial role as a high-level bomber to a role of low-level intruder, then to one of a standoff cruise missile launcher and now currently it serves as a close-air support bomber, according to Air Force Times.

“In time you modernize (the weapon system) with improved sensors and avionics and weapons, and you can in fact change its character,” said Air Force Secretary James Roche.  “The B-52 is probably the greatest example of that.  It starts out as a penetrating bomber, a nuclear bomber, flying off the deck, rattling everybody’s fillings. … Now we wouldn’t think of flying it low and fast,” Roche said (Lance Bacon, Air Force Times, June 16).

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