United States:  Abraham Calls for “Immediate Corrective Action” to Improve Security at National Laboratories

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham yesterday directed the National Nuclear Security Administration to take “immediate corrective action” to improve security at the U.S. national laboratories (see GSN, June 23).

“The Department of Energy views security as the critical responsibility of the national laboratories, and we treat any lapse or failure as significant,” Abraham said in a press statement.  “Therefore, I have directed NNSA Administrator [Linton] Brooks to launch a comprehensive security overhaul at the national labs and to put in place any immediate changes he deems necessary,” he added.

One of the three national laboratories — Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico — announced yesterday new management changes prompted by an independent investigation into allegations that internal security investigations were blocked or that investigators experienced retaliation.

Among the management changes, which are effective immediately, was the resignation of Dave Nokes, Sandia vice president for national security and arms control, according to a laboratory press release.  Nokes resigned at Sandia President C. Paul Robinson’s request, the release said.  He will be replaced by Al Romig, currently Sandia vice president for science, technology and partnerships, with a replacement for Romig to be announced soon.

“Changes, especially when unexpected, are particularly difficult,” Robinson said in a statement, “but they hopefully serve to assure continued public confidence and support for Sandia and all our programs.  This has been a very trying experience.  I know the changes we’re making today will make us stronger.”

GAO Criticizes NNSA Security Program Management

Meanwhile, the U.S. General Accounting Office released a report yesterday criticizing the NNSA for failing to effectively manage its safeguard and security program that oversees security at the three national laboratories, as well as the four U.S. nuclear weapons production sites (see GSN, June 16).

According to the May report, congressional auditors found that the NNSA had failed to be “fully effective” in its management of the safeguards and security program in four key areas — defining clear roles and responsibilities for site offices, assessing sites’ security activities, oversight of contractors’ corrective action plans and staff allocation. 

“As a result, NNSA cannot be assured that its contractors are working to maximum advantage to protect critical facilities and material from individuals seeking to inflict damage,” the report says.

Brooks told a House Government Reform subcommittee yesterday, however, that he was confident that security at NNSA sites was effective in preventing potential terrorists from gaining access.

Since the NNSA’s creation in 2000, the agency’s management structure has been in “a state of flux,” with a full implementation of a revised management structure not expected to be completed until September 2004, the GAO report says.  This “flux” has had an effect on the agency defining site offices’ safeguards and security responsibilities, it says. 

The lack of a functional management structure, and the resultant confusion over responsibilities, has led to inconsistencies among NNSA sites as to how to conduct security assessments, according to the report.  Three of the seven sites use an Energy-required survey approach to assess security, which is a comprehensive review lasting two weeks.  The remaining sites, however, instead rely on a surveillance approach, which uses a smaller number of NNSA officials to oversee one or more aspects of a contractor’s security activities throughout the year.  These sites have been able to use the surveillance approach, the report says, because the NNSA has not issued guidelines on complying with Energy policy on conducting surveys while it conducts the management reorganization.

In addition, the GAO also found that NNSA contractors often do not conduct Energy-required analyses when preparing corrective action plans to fix security flaws, according to the report.  Out of 43 such plans reviewed between 1999 and 2002, less than half included a required root cause analysis, and less than 25 percent included required risk assessment or cost-benefit analyses, the report says.

“Potential opportunities to improve physical security at the sites are not maximized because corrective actions are developed without fully considering the problems’ root causes, risks posed or cost versus benefit of taking corrective action,” the report says.

The NNSA is also facing shortfalls in both security staff and expertise, the GAO report says.  Officials at five NNSA sites said they either have or expect to have between two and six vacancies for positions to oversee contractors’ security and safeguards activities, it says.  The report found that many such vacancies occur because staff members are reluctant to be relocated to areas seen as less desirable and because the NSSA has frozen hiring activities because of budget constraints.

In its report, the GAO made several recommendations to improve security management, such as the formalization of the responsibilities of site offices to conduct oversight and the use of the survey approach at all sites to conduct security assessments.  The GAO also recommended that the NNSA ensure that contractors develop corrective action plans based on root-cause, cost-benefit and risk-assessment analyses; and that the agency develop a plan to allocate security staff at sites to provide effective long-term oversight.

During yesterday’s National Security, Emerging Threats and International Relations Subcommittee hearing, Brooks said he agreed with most of the issues the GAO raised in its report and its recommendations.

“I believe the GAO did concentrate on the right things.  I believe most things in life are a question of management, and this is clearly a question of management,” Brooks said.  “If we do not get the management of safeguards and security right, we will not ever fix the problem,” he said.

Brooks said, however, that he disagreed with the GAO’s recommendation that the survey approach to conducting security assessments should be the only method used at NNSA sites.  He defended the surveillance approach, calling it “equally effective,” and said Energy policy should be modified to legitimize the use of the surveillance method.

Brooks also said the NNSA had developed several new measures to help improve security, which the agency would soon formally announce.  The new measures include increased U.S. and contractor security experts and directives to site managers to increase surveillance and to file periodical reports to Brooks himself.  In addition, the NNSA plans to systematically re-examine a number of external reviews conducted on the agency to determine if recommendations were implemented, as well as create two panels to review physical security problems and personnel concerns, Brooks said.  The panels will be headed by outside experts, he added.  

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Iran:  Washington Works Through U.N. to Stifle Tehran

After heavily criticizing the United Nations over the crisis in Iraq, U.S. officials are attempting to use U.N. channels to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, the Washington Post reported Monday (see GSN, June 24).

Many of the other options available to Washington, including possible military action, are unattractive to U.S. officials, the Post reported.

A senior State Department official described a recent report on Iran’s nuclear development from the International Atomic Energy Agency as “factual” and “devastating.”

Iran has a “lot of explaining to do,” the official added (Michael Dobbs, Washington Post, June 23).

Iranian Opposition Alleged to be Terrorists

A classified report, prepared three weeks ago by France’s intelligence agency, said that an Iranian opposition group was planning attacks in France against Iranian government targets.

French authorities last week arrested 150 members of the People’s Mujahedin, also known as Mujahedin-e Khalq, which the U.S. State Department has formally identified as a terrorist organization.  Most of the suspects were released, however, because of a lack of tangible evidence of terrorist plotting.

The group allegedly had plans to attack Iranian embassies and assassinate former members of the group who are now linked with Tehran (Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, June 23).

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North Korea:  Reactor Construction Will Likely End Soon

Construction of two light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea will most likely be suspended, a South Korean official said today (see GSN, June 20).

“The issue in point is when and how to halt (the project),” the official said.  The reactors are being built as part of the defunct 1994 Agreed Framework, under which North Korea agreed to halt nuclear weapons development.

“As the United States is demanding a halt, we’re finding it more difficult to say that the project should continue,” the official added.

Seoul is pushing for a small continuation of construction, even as Washington and Pyongyang are locked in a nuclear standoff.  U.S. officials are pushing for a complete halt to the work (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, June 25).

Former Presidential Aides Indicted

Two former South Korean presidential aides and a leading business executive have been indicted on charges that $100 million was transferred to Pyongyang before a 2000 summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung.

The South Korean president was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, largely as a result of the 2000 meeting.

Independent counsel Song Doo-hwan handed down the indictments against Park Jie-won, a former chief of the presidential staff, and Lim Dong-won, a former head of the South Korean intelligence service.

Chung Mong-hun, the chairman of Hyundai Asan, was also indicted.

“In pre-summit talks, the government promised to provide $100 million to North Korea, and Hyundai group was asked to transmit the money for the government,” Song said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 25).

Anniversary Marked With Rhetoric

North Korea marked the 53rd anniversary of the beginning of the Korean War by criticizing the U.S. presence on the Korean Peninsula.

“The U.S. seeks to fish in troubled waters by driving South Korea as cannon fodder or a shock brigade in its aggression of the D.P.R.K.,” said the state-run Korean Central News Agency (Agence Presse-France, June 25).

Pakistani Nuclear Aid A “No-Go”

During a meeting yesterday, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and U.S. President George W. Bush discussed U.S. allegations that Pakistan provided nuclear aid to Pyongyang.

“He basically made it clear that he understood that any sort of contacts in any sort of military-related field, whatever they are, are a ‘no-go’ area,” said a senior Bush administration official (Agence France-Presse II, June 25).

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CTBT:  Oman Ratifies Treaty

Oman ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty June 13, according to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, bringing the total number of treaty ratifiers to 102 (see GSN, May 12).

Oman is not one of the 44 nations that must ratify the treaty before it can enter into force.  Of those 44 nations, 31 have ratified the treaty (CTBT Organization release, June 25).

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Pakistan I:  F-16s Will Not Be Included in Proposed Aid Package, Bush Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A proposed U.S. economic and security aid package to Pakistan will not include the sale of F-16 fighter aircraft, U.S. President George W. Bush said today (see GSN, June 13).

After a meeting with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf today at Camp David, Bush announced that he would seek congressional support for a five-year, $3 billion economic and security assistance package.  Of that $3 billion, half would go to defense-related matters, Bush said.  The sale of F-16s though, which has long been a sticking point in U.S.-Pakistani relations, would not be included, he said.

“In the package that we discussed … half of that money goes for defense matters, of which the F-16 won’t be a part,” Bush said.  “Nevertheless, we want to work closely with our friend to make sure that the package meets the needs of the Pakistan people,” he added.

In the late 1980s, Pakistan ordered 28 F-16s, but the United States embargoed arms sales to Pakistan in the early 1990s because it could no longer certify that Islamabad did not possess nuclear weapons.  Improvements in U.S.-Pakistani relations following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and Islamabad’s increased role in the war on terrorism, however, spurred Bush to lift the embargo and increased speculation that the fighters would be provided.

Musharraf today praised the proposed aid package, saying it “exemplifies the U.S. commitment” to long-term involvement with Pakistan.

“We look forward to diverse programs of cooperation in the economic, commercial, political and the defense sector,” Musharraf said.  “We also expect greater people-to-people contact and close interaction between the parliaments of the two countries to promote the cause of democracy,” he said.

In addition to the new financial aid package, Bush and Musharraf discussed the need to stop cross-border terrorism in the disputed province of Kashmir — a potential flashpoint between India and Pakistan.  Bush praised both Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee for recent moves to reduce tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries.

Both Bush and Musharraf said that the issue of Kashmir would have to be addressed in any larger Indian-Pakistani peace efforts, with Musharraf saying Kashmir was a “core issue.”  Musharraf reportedly last week criticized Indian suggestions that the topic of Kashmir be one of several issues discussed in any talks (see GSN, June 19).

In addition, Bush said, the United States would remain actively involved in seeking peace in South Asia.  “I assured the president that the United States will do all we can to promote peace,” he said.

Ultimately, however, peace and stability in South Asia will be dependent on India and Pakistan themselves, Bush said.  “The truth of the matter is, for there to be a final agreement, it’s going to require leadership from the both the Pakistan government and the Indian government,” he said.

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Iran:  IAEA Equipment in Place at Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility

The International Atomic Energy Agency has installed monitoring equipment at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Iran, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, June 23).

The agency has asked Iran not to introduce uranium into the facility, which is at the center of U.S. allegations of nuclear weapons development.

“The IAEA has all its safeguards equipment in place (at Natanz), and if Iran did try to move anything in, they would see it,” said a diplomat in Vienna.

Iran has denied allegations that its nuclear development program is a cover for a nuclear weapons program.  The IAEA recently reviewed a report on Iran’s nuclear program.  Another report, due in September, is “likely to be more conclusive, and expectations are going to be much greater from (IAEA) member states,” a diplomat said.

The September report will probably investigate whether Iran has already used uranium to test enrichment centrifuges and why Tehran is building a heavy water nuclear plant at Arak (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 23).

Intelligence sources in the Middle East, however, said that Iran has already introduced uranium to four centrifuges at the Kalaye Electric facility, Jane’s Defense Weekly reported this week (see GSN, June 12).  The centrifuges were allegedly tested to prepare for the larger facility at Natanz.

The recent IAEA report says that 1.9 kilograms of uranium, previously imported from China, is missing.  Iranian officials said the uranium was lost through leaking valves on a storage container (Koch/Ben-David, Jane’s Defense Weekly, June 25).

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Pakistan II:  Authorities Arrest Two Found With Nuclear Documents

Pakistani military intelligence last week arrested two Italian nationals who were found with classified documents related to Pakistani nuclear facilities, authorities said Saturday (see GSN, June 19).

The two men were arrested in southern Pakistan on suspicion of collecting information about the Pakistan Atomic Energy Center in the city of Dera Ghazi Khan, said District Police Officer Qamar-uz-Zaman.  Since the arrest, all foreigners have been banned from entering the city without special permission, Zaman said (Agence France-Presse, June 21 in FBIS-NES, June 23).

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South Asia:  State Department Clarifies End of Sanctions

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. State Department issued a notice in the Federal Register last week seeking to clarify export control policy toward India and Pakistan by reiterating that all U.S. sanctions against the two countries have been lifted (see GSN, June 13).

The notice re-expressed the department’s policy of considering export license requests for defense-related exports to India and Pakistan on a case-by-case basis, rather than the previous policy of denial established in 1998.  The notice does not represent a new shift in U.S. policy, but instead seeks to clarify lingering uncertainties about the status of U.S. sanctions against India and Pakistan, a State Department official told Global Security Newswire yesterday, calling the notice an “item of good government.”

In 1998, the United States imposed sanctions on India and Pakistan after the two countries each conducted nuclear weapons tests.  In 2001, soon after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, U.S. President George W. Bush waived those sanctions on the basis that they were no longer in the U.S. national security interest, according to last week’s Federal Register notice.  Last year, U.S. sanctions that were imposed on the Pakistani Defense Ministry and the Pakistani Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission for engaging in ballistic missile-related cooperation with Chinese entities expired, the notice said.

The State Department official said he was unaware of any particular significance to the timing of the issuing of last week’s notice, citing the time often needed to prepare such measures.  The official also said he was unaware of any requests from either India or Pakistan for such a clarification of U.S. policy.

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Iran:  Tehran Prepared to Negotiate Over Additional Protocol

Iran is apparently moving away from a showdown over its nuclear development and is prepared to hold talks with U.N. officials, Reuters reported today (see GSN, June 20).

“We will definitely try to cooperate more than before with the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] and give them the necessary assurances about Iran’s activities,” said Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s nuclear agency.  The United States has accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons, but Iran says it is only developing peaceful nuclear power technology to meet the demands of a growing population.

Aghazadeh said Iran is not necessarily opposed to signing the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would allow more intrusive monitoring of Tehran’s nuclear activities.

“We have never said we don’t want to sign the Additional Protocol … Our view about the protocol is positive,” he said.  “Naturally, the way we will choose is the way of cooperation and reaching an acceptable settlement for both sides,” he added (Paul Hughes, Reuters, June 22).

Aghazadeh said he wants to begin negotiations for the nuclear inspections soon, but “there are ambiguities that need to be removed” from the Additional Protocol.  Iran will “study the demands of the agency” and “wishes to commence discussions with the IAEA as soon as possible,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Washington Times, June 22).

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said that some segments of Iran’s leadership support the protocol.

“There is support inside Iran — in some parts of the government — for an additional protocol,” ElBaradei said.  “The longer there are negative doubts, the worse it is for Iran.  If I were in their shoes I’d take a peace offensive,” he added (Roula Khalaf, Financial Times, June 23).

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United States I:  Senator Criticizes Energy Department on Sandia Security

A U.S. senator has accused the U.S. Energy Department of failing to fulfill promises to investigate security problems at Sandia National Laboratories, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 21).

In a letter sent Friday to Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) cited a long list of reports of fraud and security problems at the facility.  While the letter did not provide much detail into the exact nature of the security problems, it did mention the loss of keys “to every lock at the lab right up to the glass doors to the reactor.”

“You need to address these and other security matters at the nuclear weapons labs,” Grassley said in the letter.

“The labs are in harm’s way,” Grassley said in the letter.  “There is plenty of loud thunder.  Lightning will surely follow.  The labs are in danger of getting zapped,” he said.

In addition, Grassley also said that two investigators who raised questions about security at Sandia, Pat O’Neill and Mark Ludwig, have reported that they were transferred to work in a rodent-infested trailer, that they were reassigned to noninvestigative work and that they had their annual pay raises reduced.

National Nuclear Security Administration spokesman Anson Franklin said that security at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories is the highest priority of both the NNSA and the energy secretary.  “We have multiple and redundant means at each facility to ensure that our secrets and materials are not at risk,” Franklin said (Matthew Wald, New York Times, June 23).

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United States II:  Energy Department to Hold Hearings on Sites for Proposed Pit Facility

The U.S. Energy Department is expected to hold public hearings this week in Amarillo, Texas, on the department’s proposed sites for a facility to produce new “pits,” or triggers, for nuclear weapons (see GSN, June 3).

One of the sites the department is considering for the Modern Pit Facility is the Pantex Plant in Texas, where nuclear warheads are assembled and dismantled, according to the Associated Press.  Other sites under consideration include the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Carlsbad site in New Mexico, the Nevada Test Site, and the Savannah River Site in South Carolina.

Energy officials are expected to decide by April of next year whether and where to proceed with the facility’s construction, AP reported.  Construction is slated to begin in 2011 and is expected to be completed by 2017.  The facility would then be set to begin producing new nuclear weapons triggers in 2020 and could produce between 125 to 450 triggers per year (Associated Press, June 23).

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Iran:  Tehran Says Nuclear Development Will Continue

Responding to an International Atomic Energy Agency statement asking Iran to show restraint in its nuclear program, Tehran said yesterday that it would continue with scheduled plans to add nuclear materials to a uranium enrichment plant (see GSN, June 19).

The 35-member IAEA board of governors yesterday appealed to Iran to hold off from putting nuclear material into the enrichment facility “as a confidence-building measure.”

Iran’s IAEA representative, Ali Akbar Salehi, said the nuclear development would continue and that Iran would not accept additional inspections of its facilities.

“Iran is already being fully cooperative.  We are happy that the board did not yield to pressure to adopt a resolution (condemning Iran),” he said.  “The U.S. is probably not very happy with the outcome because they wanted a resolution and they were not able to get (it) … The reason the resolution failed is that everyone knew there were political motivations behind it,” he said (Financial Times, June 20).

Salehi said Iran was opposed to allowing more intrusive international monitoring of its nuclear activities, but he reiterated that Iran would cooperate with existing IAEA activities in the country.

“We cannot bind ourselves to doing more than we are already committed to,” Salehi said.  “The process of cooperation with the IAEA will go on unhindered,” he added (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, June 19).

The U.S. representative to the IAEA, Kenneth Brill, said the statement released yesterday by the board of governors sent a message of concern to Iran.

“I’m very satisfied with the outcome,” Brill said.  “We have an important message from the board that supports the U.S. position and concern about the Iranian program,” he said (Richard Bernstein, New York Times, June 20).

IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday the agency needs more information about Iran’s nuclear development efforts.  He also repeated his appeal for Iran to adopt the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would allow more intrusive inspections of nuclear facilities by IAEA officials.

“The jury is still out,” ElBaradei said.  “We still have a lot of work to do and we will be hopefully in a much better position to make a judgment by September or earlier if we can,” he added (IAEA release, June 19).

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Iran is close to signing the Additional Protocol, Agence France-Presse reported today.

“According to information that we have in hand, the leadership of Iran is ready to join all protocols, to all demands of the IAEA, concerning control of (Iran’s) nuclear program,” he said.  “We will build our relations with any country — including Iran — based on their openness in relation to the IAEA,” Putin added (Agence France-Presse, June 20).

The president of TVEL, the Russian nuclear fuel producer that is slated to supply nuclear material to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, said that the deal is contingent on Iran’s compliance with the IAEA.

“No fuel will be supplied until Iran’s entire nuclear industry is put under IAEA monitoring,” said Alexander Nyago (Interfax, June 18 in FBIS-SOV, June 18).

Iranian President Mohammad Khatami reportedly telephoned Putin to assure him that Iran was not developing or procuring nuclear weapons technology (Financial Times).

Bolton Says Military Action Possible

The United States has the right to use military force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons but the thought is “far from our minds,” U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton told BBC today.

U.S. President George W. Bush “has repeatedly said that all options are on the table.  But that (military action) is not only not our preference, it is far from our minds,” Bolton said.

He added, however, that a military strike “has to be an option” and said that Iran is “pursuing multiple routes to nuclear weapons, and we need to get that stopped” (Agence France-Presse, June 20).

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North Korea:  Washington Pushes for Security Council Condemnation

The United States has prepared a draft document that it hopes will push the U.N. Security Council to censure North Korea for developing nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 19).

John Negroponte, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, discussed the draft with Russian, British and French diplomats Wednesday.  Negroponte met separately with Chinese diplomats yesterday, according to AP.

China has opposed any Security Council action on North Korea, and it reiterated that stance Wednesday.

In the draft, which would take the form of a statement from the council, Washington criticizes North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs “and the actions the regime has taken since last October when it acknowledged it was pursuing a uranium enrichment program.”

“The council calls upon the D.P.R.K. to immediately and completely dismantle its nuclear weapons program in a verifiable and irreversible manner, and come into full compliance with its obligations” under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Although Negroponte refused to discuss the negotiations over the draft, he said “we will certainly continue to pursue” the effort (Associated Press/USA Today, June 20).

The United States has informed Japan, South Korea and other partners about its effort to gain Security Council condemnation of North Korea’s actions.

Traveling to a meeting of Asian and Pacific states this week, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said, “we will make judgments in the weeks ahead as to whether we want the U.N. to take any action” (Kyodo News Agency, June 19).

North Korea, meanwhile, said again this week that it plans to develop a nuclear deterrent to a U.S. invasion.

“The D.P.R.K. will put further spurs to increasing its nuclear deterrent force for self-defense as a just self-defense measure to cope with the U.S. strategy to isolate and stifle the D.P.R.K.,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported Wednesday (Korean Central News Agency, June 18 in FBIS-EAS, June 18).

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NPT:  Former Officials Say Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Battered

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The 1968 treaty banning nuclear weapons from all but five countries continues to be battered by insufficient compliance, the holdout of key nations and outright cheating, two former senior U.S. diplomats said Wednesday.  The situation is threatening the fragile consensus upon which the treaty was built, they said.

To be effective, “the NPT must continue to be taken seriously by all of its members … and that means the nuclear weapons states, including the United States, need to be serious about their own NPT obligations,” former Undersecretary of State John Holum said in prepared remarks presented to a bipartisan congressional task force on nonproliferation issues.

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty needs stronger safeguards and more rigorous enforcement, he said.  It is also challenged by risks posed by nonmember nuclear aspirants and from the failure of nuclear weapons states “to negotiate in good faith toward disarmament,” Holum said.

Although treaty parties agreed to a permanent extension to the treaty in 1995, that “clearly did not end the nonproliferation struggle,” he said.

The Basic Bargain

Thomas Graham, former general counsel of the defunct Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, said the treaty was made possible through a “basic bargain” between the nuclear states at that time and the rest of the world.  The former would agree to share peaceful nuclear technology and gradually move toward nuclear disarmament, and the latter would renounce efforts to acquire nuclear weapons.

Graham offered a snapshot of what the world might look like without the treaty.

Had the treaty not existed, he said in prepared remarks, “there could be as many as 50 nuclear weapons states today.”  He cited a recent International Atomic Energy Agency estimate that 60 to 70 states around the world currently have the capability to build nuclear weapons.

“In such a world, every conflict would carry with it the risk of going nuclear, it would be impossible to keep nuclear weapons out of the hand of terrorists because they would be so numerous and so widespread and indeed civilization as we know it would hang in the balance every day,” he said.

Half of the Bargain

Graham said the bargain was not being sufficiently honored by the nuclear weapons states, citing the United States in particular.

While 183 nations have signed on to refrain from nuclear arms, he said, “we have to face the fact that the nuclear weapons states have not fully lived up to their half of the NPT basic bargain.”

He cited four issues on which non-nuclear treaty parties had expected progress:

*         entry into force of the nuclear test ban treaty, which the Bush administration has rejected;

*         deep reductions in nuclear weapons;

*         a treaty terminating the production of fissile material; and

*         a legally binding agreement for nuclear states to refrain from using nuclear weapons on non-nuclear states.

Graham noted that the nuclear powers in 1995 had recommitted to those goals in exchange for an agreement on a permanent extension to the treaty. 

On the fourth point, he cited a Bush administration policy in particular.

“The United States, in its recent Nuclear Posture Review, indicated it did not believe itself bound by these assurances in that five states that were then NPT non-nuclear weapons states (Syria, Iran, Iraq, Libya and North Korea) were singled out as possible targets of U.S. nuclear weapons,” he said.

Holum criticized the administration for its interest in possibly developing new low-yield nuclear weapons and for abandoning the START II Treaty and other disarmament goals by instead signing the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty last year.

That treaty, also known as the Moscow Treaty, codified “low-hanging fruit” agreed to in 1997, he said, but it “actually slows the pace of [nuclear arms] reductions, and will leave higher numbers available at the end.”  It also requires no destruction of warheads or delivery platforms, he said.

“As you evaluate these programs, I invite you to measure their security rationale against the risks they pose to the NPT regime and the global consensus on nuclear nonproliferation,” he said.

Administration’s Different View

Bush administration officials have also expressed an interest in a strong NPT and suggested it is in jeopardy, but have argued the threat is weakened by insufficiently rigid enforcement and not by a lack of progress in nuclear disarmament.

The treaty is “dangerously out of balance,” said Assistant Secretary for Nonproliferation John Wolf at a preparatory meeting for the 2005 NPT review conference in April (see GSN, April 28).

“Without strict enforcement, the international confidence that has underpinned the treaty will dissolve, and the basis for peaceful sharing of nuclear technology will be destroyed,” he said.

Wolf said the United States “remains firmly committed to its obligations under the NPT,” and cited the Moscow Treaty and “other U.S. actions” as evidence of the United States moving to “promote the goal of nuclear disarmament.”

“Disarmament continues, and in fact took a significant step forward with the signing of the Moscow Treaty,” he said. 

“In two decades, the United States will have eliminated or decommissioned three-quarters of its strategic arsenal.  We have also given up whole classes of tactical nuclear weapons, and we have withdrawn remaining stocks from almost every overseas site,” Wolf said.

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Russia:  Moscow to Maintain All Aspects of Nuclear Triad, Defense Official Says

A senior Russian military official has said Russia plans to maintain all three aspects of its nuclear triad — air-, ground- and sea-based nuclear weapons — for the foreseeable future, Interfax reported yesterday.

“Russia will definitely keep its nuclear triad by the date set for the fulfillment of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, and in the following years,” said Col. Yuri Baluyevsky, first deputy chief of the Russian General Staff.

Baluyevsky also said he believed Russia would fulfill its Moscow Treaty obligations by the 2012 deadline (see GSN, June 5).  “We will definitely fulfill this document,” he said (Interfax/CDI Russia Weekly, June 19).

For further information, see:

U.S.-Russia Nuclear Reduction Treaty Text (U.S. State Department)

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Iran:  IAEA Issues Statement on Iran; Criticizes Reporting Failures, Urges Transparency

Ending its deliberation on Iran’s nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors rebuked Iran today for failing to report nuclear activities and urged Iranian leaders to accept more intrusive IAEA monitoring of its nuclear activities (see GSN, June 18).

The board “shared the concern” of IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei over “Iran’s past failures to report material, facilities and activities,” according to an IAEA release.  The board also urged Iran to refrain from putting any uranium into its pilot enrichment facility.

Iran has recently said that it might accept the Additional Protocol, allowing intrusive inspections of nuclear facilities, if it is allowed to import advanced nuclear technology.  The board said today that Iran should “promptly and unconditionally” accept the Additional Protocol.  The board welcomed Iran’s commitment to maintain a fully transparent nuclear program (IAEA release, June 19).

ElBaradei echoed the board’s remarks, urging Tehran to cooperate with U.N. efforts.

“Iran should continue to be fully transparent,” said ElBaradei.  “We still have a lot of work to do,” he said (CNN.com, June 19).

A diplomat familiar with the proceedings said that the statement was relatively mild.

“The statement by the board was a reprimand, not a condemnation,” the diplomat said.  “But it was more than I expected.  It’s not a bad result,” he said.

The Iranian envoy to the IAEA, Ali Salehi, said he was glad it was not stronger.

“We are happy that the board did not go with the pressure to come up with a resolution,” Salehi said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, June 19).

Russia, which is helping Iran build nuclear reactors in the southern city of Bushehr, applauded the statement.

“The IAEA executive board did not take the path of adopting strict resolutions censuring Iran,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov.  “Russia is satisfied that following consultations a carefully thought out declaration by the chairman was made,” he added (Associated Press/Russia Journal, June 19).

Bush Speaks Out

U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that the United States “will not tolerate the construction of a nuclear weapon” in Iran.

Iran’s nuclear development has accelerated in recent months, according to U.S. officials, who said the move may have come as a result of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

“They now see a nuclear power — the United States — right next door in Iraq,” said a U.S. diplomat.  “That has to be affecting their calculations,” the diplomat added.

Bush’s statement was a “carefully worded escalation,” according to a senior White House official.  “It’s not like this spilled out,” the official said (David Sanger, New York Times, June 19).

Bush also called on U.S. allies to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear device.

“The international community must come together to make it very clear to Iran that we will not tolerate the construction of a nuclear weapon in Iran,” Bush said.  “There’s near universal agreement that we all must work together to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Bush encouraged protesters within Iran to continue their civil disobedience.

“I appreciate those courageous souls who speak out for freedom in Iran,” he said.  “They need to know America stands squarely by their side,” Bush added (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 19).

Iran Rejects Nuclear Accusations

Iran rejected U.S. accusations of nuclear weapons development and said that an IAEA report, which was issued June 6 and cited Iran for failing to report uranium imports, could be applied to many countries.

“Hardly any member state can claim to be impeccable,” said IAEA envoy Salehi (Mark Landler, New York Times, June 19).

Iran also said it would consider adopting the Additional Protocol and opening up its facilities to intrusive inspections if the IAEA could prove it was immune to U.S. political pressure, the Beirut Daily Star reported today (Beirut Daily Star, June 19).

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North Korea:  Powell Speaks With North Korean Diplomat

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell held a brief conversation with a North Korean diplomat yesterday during a chance encounter at a Pan-Asian security conference (see GSN, June 18).

Powell spoke to Ho Jong, a North Korean delegate to this week’s meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Powell reiterated the U.S. desire for multilateral talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis.

“Briefly, at the end of lunch, they bumped into each other, they shook hands and exchanged a few words,” a U.S. official said.

Speaking at the conference, Powell said that “no issue is of greater urgency” to the United States than North Korea’s nuclear development (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, June 19).

However, Pyongyang is pressing for one-on-one talks with the United States, Ho said in a speech during the conference (George Gedda, Associated Press/Boston Globe, June 19).

Frustrated by the lack of progress in resolving the crisis, the White House is pressuring other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council to censure North Korea for its continuing nuclear efforts.  U.S. diplomats held talks in New York yesterday with Russia, France and the United Kingdom to develop a statement condemning Pyongyang for its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Washington hopes to have a statement ready by the end of the month, the Washington Post reported (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 19).

U.S. President George W. Bush did not, however, receive support from his Asian allies in the effort to move the North Korean issue to the Security Council.

“We have various steps to take” first, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said today.  Koizumi welcomed an appeal from Asian foreign ministers for Pyongyang to dismantle its nuclear capabilities.

“It is important for as many countries as possible to be interested in North Korea,” he said (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring, June 19).

South Korea also urged patience in pushing the nuclear crisis to the Security Council.

“While the U.S. position is that the Security Council should begin deliberations within several weeks, our position is that the timing of such discussions should be decided after monitoring the developments in this phase of dialogue,” South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuck said today (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, June 19).

Japanese Shipping Controls Continue

Tokyo has cracked down lately on Pyongyang’s shipping links to Japan, and a North Korean ship sat idle off the Japanese coast for the sixth day yesterday.  The Man Gyong Bong-92 has not been allowed to enter port because of poor safety measures onboard.  The ship’s captain has refused to leave without unloading his cargo.  The Japanese attentiveness to ships’ safety came just after revelations that North Korea was using its shipping to smuggle missile technology out of Japan, and Tokyo has pledged to crack down on the illegal trade (Asahi Shimbun, June 19).

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Pakistan:  Musharraf Warns of Possible Greater Nuclear Dependency

Western countries should not allow India to develop a military superiority that would force Pakistan to rely solely on nuclear weapons for its defense, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said yesterday (see GSN, June 13).

A recent increase in Indian military spending, combined with continued restrictions on Pakistan seeking to purchase military equipment abroad, could create a “dangerous” military imbalance between the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals, Musharraf said.  If such an imbalance were to occur, Pakistan would be forced to rely on its nuclear arsenal to serve as its main deterrent, he said.

“The other element of deterrence is your capability of striking and causing such damage to an enemy that is unbearable to him, and that can be done with a smaller force,” Musharraf said in an interview with the London Times.  “Every country has to survive.  Any country which wants to live in honor and dignity wants to preserve sovereign equality and its sovereignty.  Nobody will compromise with that,” he said.

Musharraf said he plans to warn U.S. President George W. Bush of the dangers of such a military imbalance when he meets with him at Camp David next week.  If defense purchase restrictions on Pakistan cannot be lifted, then a similar “embargo” should be placed on India, he said.

Musharraf also said that peace talks with India should begin as soon as possible, but criticized India’s suggestion that the disputed region of Kashmir be only one of several topics of the talks.

“Kashmir cannot be sidelined,” Musharraf said (Evans/Maddox, London Times, June 19).

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United States I:  Los Alamos Loses Two Vials of Plutonium Oxide

The U.S. Energy Department’s Los Alamos National Laboratory said yesterday that it could not account for two small vials of plutonium oxide, although it is believed that the vials had been discarded (see GSN, June 3).

The laboratory said it discovered that the vials, which contained plutonium oxide mixed with inert elements, were discovered missing June 12 after finding a discrepancy in its inventory.  The vials were not found during a two-day search, and a full materials inventory is now being conducted, according to the Associated Press.

While the exact amount of missing plutonium oxide is unknown, each of the two vials is smaller than the length of a pinky finger, said Los Alamos spokesman Kevin Roark.  The material could not be used to produce weapons, and was likely disposed of along with other radioactive waste without being properly logged, the laboratory said.

“This material has scientific and analytical research value, but is in a low hazard and threat category,” Los Alamos Director Pete Nanos said (Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, June 19).

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United States II:  Wolfowitz Defends B-1B Bomber Fleet Reduction

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz yesterday defended the Pentagon’s decision to retire 32 B1-B nuclear-capable bombers (see GSN, June 2).

In 2001, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered that the 32 bombers be retired and that some of the savings in maintenance costs be used to upgrade the 60 remaining B-1Bs, according to Aerospace Daily.

“It may be a smaller strike force, but it is able to deliver, probably an order of magnitude more capability, pound for pound, and that is where the early investments have gone,” Wolfowitz told the House Armed Services Committee.

Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, however, have approved proposals that would force the Pentagon to reactivate 23 of the bombers that were to be retired.  The Air Force has estimated that reactivating the 23 B-1Bs would result in additional costs of $1 billion in its operations and maintenance accounts through fiscal 2009 (Jefferson Morris, Aerospace Daily, June 19).

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