Threat Assessment:  U.N. Panel Finds No Iraq-Al-Qaeda Link, But Warns of Al-Qaeda WMD Ambitions

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

UNITED NATIONS — The chairman of the Security Council group monitoring sanctions against al-Qaeda and the Taliban said yesterday that while al-Qaeda is still able to function in many countries, the group has seen no evidence of a link between the terrorist organization and the former government Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein (see GSN, May 23, 2002).

Michael Chandler, the chairman of the monitoring group set up under Resolution 1267, told reporters, “Nothing has come to our notice, reported to us … that would indicate links between al-Qaeda and Iraq.  That doesn’t mean to say it doesn’t exist, but as far as we are concerned, the answer is no.”

This morning, Chandler issued a “clarification” on his remarks about the lack of a link between Iraq and al-Qaeda, in an apparent attempt to avoid contradicting the United States.  The report “does not address this issue and the monitoring group has reached no conclusions concerning these matters,” says a statement released to the media.  “Given the nature and intensity of the crisis surrounding Iraq ... and attention being directed to such issues by the Security Council itself, an inquiry by [the group] was considered inappropriate,” the statement says.

The United States argued in justifying the invasion of Iraq that the Hussein government and al-Qaeda were working together.  In particular, Secretary of State Colin Powell, addressing the council Feb. 5, said al-Qaeda was “operating freely in Baghdad.”  This “sinister nexus” between Iraq and al-Qaeda means terrorists “could turn to Iraq for expertise” in producing weapons of mass destruction, Powell said.

Ambassador Heraldo Munoz of Chile, the chairman of the council’s committee on al-Qaeda sanctions, said such a connection “never came to our knowledge before Powell made his statement.  We did not get any information from any state that there is a link between al-Qaeda and Iraq at that point.”

On the other hand, the terrorist group accused of masterminding the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in New York and Washington, as well as numerous other attacks around the world, is still able to function by adapting to the changing political realities, said Chandler and Munoz, who were speaking at a news conference introducing the group’s new report on the effectiveness of the sanctions.  Munoz said the report details “the success of the measures against the Taliban and al-Qaeda.  [However], our progress has yielded new ways for [them] to organize,” he said.  This is a long-term task.”

The report, covering January to May, says, “There were marked successes in the fight against the al-Qaeda network,” including the arrest of members of Osama bin Laden’s “original command team” and the “breakup of cells in a number of countries.”  However, the network “still pose[s] a significant threat to international peace and security,” according to the report, and there is evidence the network “has been able to reconstitute its levels of support” in numerous countries, including Afghanistan.

Panel Concerned About “Third Generation Al-Qaeda”

Of particular concern is the emergence of what the report calls the “third generation al-Qaeda,” terrorists who are operating independently since the al-Qaeda command was driven out of Afghanistan in late 2001.

“The image that is emerging of the network is of a new generation of Islamic fundamental extremism such that al-Qaeda can be viewed both as an organization and an ideology; a ‘Third Generation al-Qaeda,’ which is becoming self-perpetuating,” the report says.  “This makes it all the more difficult to track and disrupt elements of the newly emerging network and reinforces the need for all states with known al-Qaeda elements to clamp down hard on their activities.”

According to Chandler, “The newness of what we are saying is that we are seeing the people who want to carry out attacks and work within the ideology who … never went to Afghanistan, were never part of the element of al-Qaeda as it evolved.”

The first generation, Chandler said, were those who joined bin Laden in Afghanistan in the 1990s.  The second generation are those who joined after “the demise of the Taliban and the dispersion of al-Qaeda,” he said.  The third generation, such as the suspects in the bombings of Casablanca, Morocco, on May 17, were all locals with no ties to the al-Qaeda command, he said.

“Further success in bringing down the al-Qaeda network will require a sustained international effort, with continued and enhanced information sharing and coordination,” Chandler added.  “This is not something any one country is going to do on its own.”

The international efforts to crack down on arms trafficking in general and in strengthening national legislation on exports is having an effect on al-Qaeda, the report says.  However, al-Qaeda is “still able to acquire adequate quantities of weapons and explosives.  Al-Qaeda continues attempts to acquire WMD.”

Al-Qaeda has a “WMD Committee,” according to the report, “which is known to have approached a number of Muslim scientists … to assist the terrorist network with the creation and procurement of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.”  However, the group says it would be difficult for al-Qaeda to build and deploy a nuclear weapon.  “Of greater concern is the possibility of al-Qaeda acquiring a WMD and/or a delivery means from ‘rogue’ elements or as a result of lax security at a nuclear weapons arsenal,” the report says.

The monitoring group suggests, “In order to reduce the chances of al-Qaeda obtaining a nuclear device, special efforts must be undertaken to insure that all countries which possess nuclear weapons maintain the strictest controls and security regimes at all times. … These regimes should be constantly subject to audit and scrutiny.”  The report says nations should “as the first line of defense against such a threat” join the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM), as well as other relevant treaties such as the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.

The effectiveness of the CCPNM is important because, the report says, “there is a much higher probability that the network will continue its efforts to develop an improvised radiological dispersion device,” in other words, a “dirty bomb.”  The availability of the necessary radioactive material is greater and the technology is easier than for a nuclear weapon, the report says.

In January, the council adopted Resolution 1455, extending the mandate of the monitoring group.  This report is the first one under the new mandate.  The sanctions involve bans on financial transactions and travel by individuals tied to the two groups and an arms embargo against them.  The individuals subject to sanctions are on a list maintained by the council.  The list “is only a small sub-set of the critical membership of the al-Qaeda network,” Chandler said.  “The list should be expanded to take in a much broader set of al-Qaeda members and associates and those who have supported them.”

Former Chechen President Added to Sanctions List

The revised list for the first time includes a Chechen — former President Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev — thus accepting the Russian claim that Chechen rebels are linked to al-Qaeda.

The report says there has been progress in freezing al-Qaeda assets and “progress has also been made in tracking down, inhibiting and incarcerating key financial intermediaries.”  On the other hand, al-Qaeda “continued to exploit loopholes or to develop new technologies to acquire, utilize and distribute funds and logistical resources.”  Those sources include the drug trade, fundraising through businesses and charities and common crime including credit card fraud and cigarette smuggling, according to the report.

The travel ban “as it now stands, is to serve as a political statement” of nations’ commitment not to grant al-Qaeda members refuge, the report says, however, “as a practical matter, few, if any, al-Qaeda members are likely to seek open entry or transit.”  No such cases have been reported to the committee.  There is also no evidence that anyone on the council’s list has attempted to breach the arms embargo, nevertheless, the groups “are still able to acquire adequate quantities of weapons and explosives where and when they need them.”

The report will be published July 11 and the council will review the work of the sanctions committee July 29, Munoz said.

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U.S. Response:  Several Key States Struggle to Prepare for Terrorism

Budget constraints and little support from government officials have led to a lack of preparedness by several key states should a terrorist attack occur, a New York think tank has concluded (see GSN, May 16).

The Century Foundation commissioned reports on homeland security efforts in Washington, Texas, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“There is a good deal of uncertainty about financial matters among those working on homeland security,” said the Washington report, authored by Steven Stehr, chairman of Washington State University’s political science department and criminal justice program.

Washington has taken several steps to prepare, including buying $5.9 million worth of equipment for first responders.  Planning for attacks is “problematic,” however, because of scarce resources and a lack of trust between officials, according to the report (Associated Press/The Olympian, June 26).

All four states in the report are generally addressing security issues with a “business as usual” approach, according to Donald Kettl, a University of Wisconsin political scientist affiliated with The Century Foundation.

“Whether because of budget constraints, institutional inertia, insufficient support and incentives from the federal government, or basic shortsightedness, our authors found little evidence that states and localities have significantly improved protections for their residents,” the foundation said (Century Foundation release).

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U.S. Response I:  House Approves Fiscal 2004 Homeland Security Appropriations Bill

The U.S. House of Representatives voted 425-2 yesterday to approve the fiscal 2004 homeland security appropriations bill, which provides $30 billion for homeland security programs, according to the Los Angeles Times (see GSN, June 16).

The bill would provide the Homeland Security Department with $29.4 billion for operations in the next fiscal year, an increase of almost 2 percent over last year’s funding for the U.S. agencies that were combined to create the new department, the Times reported.  The bill provides:

*         $9 billion for border protection;

*         $5.2 billion for the Transportation Security Administration;

*         $4.4 billion for state and local emergency personnel;

*         $890 million to combat biological terrorism; and

*         $776 million for U.S. infrastructure protection.

House Republicans added an additional $1 billion to the bill — more than President George W. Bush’s initial request — for additional transportation security measures and to help fund first responders, according to the Times.

Bush praised the House “for acting quickly to approve funds for our continued effort to strengthen homeland security and protect the American people” (Justin Gest, Los Angeles Times, June 24).

The funding included in the bill amounts to about $250 in U.S. spending per taxpayer, said House Select Committee on Homeland Security Chairman Christopher Cox (R-Calif.).

“Nothing we do is more important,” Cox said.  “It’s an extraordinary amount of money to respond to the post-9/11 world,” he said.

Some House Democrats, however, criticized their Republican counterparts for failing to fully fund homeland security measures while devoting so much funding to Bush’s $350 billion tax cut, according to the Washington Post.

“The problem is we cannot put the resources in the bill today because this Congress, the majority, has decided their No. 1, and virtually their only, priority is tax cuts,” Representative David Obey (D-Wis.) said (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, June 25).

The Senate is set to consider its own version of the legislation, but no schedule for doing so has yet been announced (Gest, Los Angeles Times).

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U.S. Response II:  DHS Plans to Localize Color-Coded Warning System

The U.S. Homeland Security Department will revise its color-coded terrorist warning system this summer, the New York Daily News reported today (see GSN, June 3).

The new system will be localized, and the department will have it in place by September, according to Steve Cooper, the department’s chief information officer.  Officials are concerned that repeated nationwide warnings, without an incident, have jaded U.S. residents.

“We recognize that the risk is not uniform,” Cooper said.  “We want to regionalize or localize the alerting mechanism,” he added.

Officials also denied rumors that the country would be placed at an orange level of alert, the second-highest possible, for the July 4 holiday.

“Discussions have not taken place yet regarding the threat level over the July 4 holiday,” said spokeswoman Rachel Sunbarger (James Meek, New York Daily News, June 25).

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International Response:  U.N.  Studies Shows Some Antiterrorism Efforts Are Ineffective

The U.N. Security Council’s travel and arms embargo on individuals linked to al-Qaeda is not stopping the global terrorist network from carrying out attacks, according to a 42-page, unpublished U.N. draft report cited in Saturday’s Washington Post.

According to the report, since the sanctions were imposed after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, no terrorist or weapon covered by the measures has been detained or seized at an international border.

“Despite the travel ban,” the report reads, “members of the al-Qaeda network have retained a high degree of mobility and have been able to carry out and contribute to terrorist attacks in several countries around the world.”

The report indicates that a U.N. list of over 220 people and groups said to be linked to al-Qaeda contains many misspellings and errors.  Thirty-four suspects are identified by a single name, and translations from Arabic to English vary. Also, the United States and other countries have reportedly refrained from releasing certain names to the United Nations because of concerns about compromising their own investigations.

The report indicates that efforts against al-Qaeda have been successful in some areas, with a number of senior al-Qaeda members having been arrested over the last year, but that recent attacks in Casablanca, Morocco, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, show that terrorists are “still willing and able to strike at targets of their choosing.” The group that carried out the attack in Casablanca is not directly linked to al-Qaeda, but according to the report, the incident demonstrates the organization’s ability to recruit new adherents.

Terrorists still have access to millions of dollars, according to the draft. The United States and other countries, the report indicates, are unable to freeze some al-Qaeda-related assets, allowing al-Qaeda members to “acquire adequate quantities of weapons and explosives where and when they need them” (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 21).

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