Threat Assessment:  Al-Qaeda, Others Are Armed With WMD, CIA Says

Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups are currently capable of conducting attacks with different types of weapons of mass destruction, according to an internal CIA report described in today’s Washington Times.  While there is no evidence that such an attack is imminent, one “cannot be ruled out,” the report says (see GSN, May 29).

Islamic extremists linked to Osama bin Laden “have a wide variety of potential agents and delivery means to choose from for chemical, biological and radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attacks,” the report says.  Entitled Terrorist CBRN: Materials and Effects, the report was authored by the CIA’s intelligence directorate and released last month, according to the Times.

“Al-Qaeda’s goal is the use of (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons) to cause mass casualties,” the report says.  “However, most attacks by the group — and especially by associated extremists — probably will be small-scale, incorporating relatively crude delivery means and easily produced or obtained chemicals, toxins or radiological substances,” the report adds.

Chemical Weapons

The report says al-Qaeda “has crude procedures for making mustard agent, sarin and VX,” and the group also has access to toxic cyanides and less dangerous industrial materials, such as chlorine and phosgene.

In addition, al-Qaeda members have attempted “poison plot” attacks in Europe with chemicals and toxins, according to the report.

“These agents could cause hundreds of casualties and widespread panic if used in multiple, simultaneous attacks,” the report says.

Biological Weapons

Al-Qaeda is capable of attacking with anthrax and botulinum toxin, the report says, noting that botulinum production information has been found in terrorist training materials.

Furthermore, terrorists have explored using ricin, a toxin that “is readily available by extraction from common castor beans,” the report says, adding that “Terrorists have looked at delivering ricin in foods and as a contact poison, although we have no scientific data to indicate that ricin can penetrate intact skin.”

The report also says that the ringleader of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Mohamed Atta, and his suspected colleague Zacarias Moussaoui “expressed interest in crop dusters, raising our concern that al-Qaeda has considered using aircraft to disseminate (biological warfare) agents.”

Nuclear and Radiological Weapons

Al-Qaeda and other terrorists could also make an “improvised nuclear device” that would be “intended to cause a yield-producing nuclear explosion,” the report says.

Such a weapon could be made with “diverted nuclear-weapons components,” by modifying an already assembled nuclear weapon or by using a self-designed weapon, the report says.

More likely, terrorists would try to attack with a radiological weapon, or “dirty bomb,” composed of radioactive materials dispersed by conventional explosives.

“Use of a (radiological dispersal device) by terrorists could result in health, environmental and economic effects, as well as political and social effects,” the report says.

Materials for such weapons — such as cesium 137, strontium 90 and cobalt 60 — are widely used in hospitals, universities and industrial facilities, the report says (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, June 3).

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U.S. Response:  Terror Alerts Meet With More Indifference

Extended terrorism warnings issued by the U.S. Homeland Security Department risk causing a “crying wolf syndrome” in which U.S. residents and security forces could reduce their wariness, according to terrorism experts.

The department established its five color alert system last year that has mostly remained on “yellow,” or “elevated,” with brief periods at “orange,” which denotes a high risk of a terrorist attack (see GSN, June 2).

Although five levels of alert are possible, in practice only two, yellow and orange, can be used regularly, said Randall Larsen, a senior fellow at the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security.  The highest level, “red,” or “severe,” could only be used if an attack is under way, and the lowest two levels are politically impractical, Larsen said.

During the most recent orange alert that ended last week, many security agencies did not respond with the same measures they used in earlier orange alerts, according to the Christian Science Monitor.

In Washington, for example, the U.S. Capitol and the sidewalk in front of the White House remained open, and local police officers did not work overtime shifts, the Monitor reported.

Similarly, Sacramento, Calif., Police Department spokesman Justin Risly said his department does not take any automatic steps when the federal alert level changes.

“The bottom line for us is, unless we have a specific threat, we don’t do much of anything differently,” he said.

“Here’s the difficulty: One color code is trying to give us too much information,” said Larsen.  “If we go from yellow to orange, the threat of an attack is higher.  But is that the threat of a small car bomb or a nuclear weapon? I’m going to worry about one much more than the other,” he added.

“For cities, everyone’s pretty much freelancing on responses, based on the risk assessment in their own community,” said New Haven, Conn., Mayor John DiStefano (Linda Feldmann, Christian Science Monitor, June 3).

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International Response:  G-8 Pledges to Help Countries Combat Terrorism

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

EVIAN, France — The Group of Eight today agreed to increase efforts to help countries develop better capabilities to combat international terrorism.

The U.N. Security Council’s Counterterrorism Committee has outlined a number of areas for capacity-building assistance, such as counterterrorism legislation and practice, law enforcement, domestic security measures and export control measures, according to an action plan released today at the G-8 summit here.  Assistance in these areas could take the form of providing training, dispatching specialists or providing equipment as requested by other countries (see GSN, April 7).

To help countries develop improved counterterrorism capabilities, the G-8 agreed today to create a Counterterrorism Action Group.  Group members will provide funding, expertise or training facilities, and will focus their activities on the areas and countries of their expertise, according to the action plan.  The purpose of the group is to both help countries with the greatest need improve their counterterrorism capabilities and to avoid duplicating the efforts of other G-8 members, according to the plan.

The group has scheduled its first meeting July 15 and is expected to have prioritized needs and countries’ assistance requests by a second meeting scheduled for Oct. 15.

“For the peace and security of the world, it is essential for all countries, including developing countries, to enhance such [counterterrorism] capability,” the G-8 said in its action plan.

The G-8 today also agreed to further support the U.N. Counterterrorism Committee by ensuring that it is properly staffed and by outlining measures countries can take to fulfill their obligations under U.N. terrorism resolutions, particularly Security Council Resolution 1373, which was passed following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.  In addition, the G-8 members also pledged to encourage countries that are not yet members of international counterterrorism conventions to join such agreements and to urge regional organizations to do more to ensure that their members implement Resolution 1373.

The action plan calls for the G-8 to produce a report on the progress of its counterterrorism efforts in time for the group’s summit next year.

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U.S. Response:  Threat Level Lowered To Yellow

U.S. security officials have lowered the national terrorist threat level from orange to yellow, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, May 21).

Yellow represents an “elevated risk,” while orange is “high risk.”

“The U.S. intelligence community has … concluded that the number of indicators and warnings that led to raising the level have decreased and the heightened vulnerability associated with the Memorial Day holiday has passed,” Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said Friday (John Mintz, Washington Post, May 31).

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