United States:  MTCR Could Hinder Missile Defense Cooperation

The Missile Technology Control Regime, which seeks to prevent ballistic missile proliferation by establishing common export control laws among members, could hinder the Bush administration’s plans to enlist allies to help develop missile defense systems, Defense News reported today (see GSN, June 2).

The MTCR’s consequences on missile defense cooperation are illustrated by a planned set of tests next year for the U.S.-Israeli Arrow missile interceptor.  To conduct those tests, Israel plans to send an Arrow system and some spare missiles to a U.S. facility, according to Defense News.  Under a strict interpretation of the MTCR, however, those spare interceptors could not be returned to Israel.

After considering several options, U.S. and Israeli officials determined that as long as Israeli officials maintained possession of the interceptors at all times, they could be returned without violating the regime, Defense News reported.

To prevent further difficult case-by-case reviews, the Bush administration is reviewing the MTCR and other export-control regulations, with recommendations on changes expected by the summer, according to a senior Bush administration official.  A senior Bush administration official said the review would probably not recommend outright MTCR rule changes but rather would seek more moderate measures that could applied without reviewing each case individually.

The “MTCR is not, should not be, and is not intended to be a restraint on missile defense,” the official said.  “It is intended to restrict trade in ballistic missile technology, so it has a complementary role to missile defense.  Both seek to do the same thing in different ways,” the official said.

A U.S. industry official said that continued case-by-case reviews could lead to creative interpretations of the MTCR, which would help weaken the entire regime.  Case-by-case reviews could also delay cooperation, the official said.

“On each and every occasion that some form of cooperation is proposed, proponents will line up their arguments and opponents will be energized by having another opportunity to draw the line on the primacy of the MTCR over missile defense cooperation,” the industry official said.  “In some cases, cooperation will be denied.  In others, we will see cooperation reduced,” the official added.

Opponents of outright changes to U.S. export control regulations, however, have warned against abolishing the MTCR, which could lead to increased ballistic missile proliferation

“This logic argues that the MTCR doesn’t work very well and that we should simply give up on it, but this (same logic) is not applied to missile defense technology itself,” said Ivan Oelrich, director of the Strategic Security Project at the Federation of American Scientists.  “Even the most ardent supporters (of missile defense) admit the system might not work but that we should try anyway, yet they do not feel the same about the MTCR,” he said (Svitak/Ratnam, Defense News, July 14).

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Iran:  United States, Israel, Concerned Over Shahab 3 Missile Test

U.S. and Israeli officials have expressed concern over an announcement yesterday by Iran that it had conducted the final test of its Shahab 3 long-range ballistic missile, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 7).

“We have long had very serious concerns about Iranian missile programs,” U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

U.S. officials said the latest Shahab 3 test was one of several conducted in recent years and was not a surprise.  Iran’s ballistic missile program poses “a threat to the region and a threat to U.S. interests in the region,” and would be addressed with various forms of pressure with “like-minded countries,” Boucher said.

Israel is also concerned about Iran’s progress in the development of the Shahab 3, which would have the ability to hit targets there, according to the Times.

“We are very concerned, especially since we know that Iran is seeking to acquire the nuclear weapon,” Israeli government spokesman Avi Pazner told Agence France-Presse.  “The combination of Shahab 3 and the nuclear weapon would be a very serious threat on the stability of the region,” he said (Nazila Fathi, New York Times, July 8).

Israel’s Arrow missile interceptor system is capable of providing full protection against the Shahab 3, said Arye Herzog, head of the Homa Missile Defense program (see GSN, June 2).  Herzog added, however, that Israel still lacked full protection against the Shahab 4, a more advanced ballistic missile Iran has been reported as trying to develop (Israel Defense Forces Radio/BBC Monitoring International, July 8).

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