Threat Assessment:  Al-Qaeda No Longer Able to Conduct Large Attacks, Experts Say

The U.S. war on terrorism has helped to neutralize al-Qaeda’s ability to conduct large-scale, mass casualty attacks similar to the Sept. 11 attacks, terrorism experts said yesterday (see GSN, June 27).

In addition to the war on terrorism, increased public vigilance and increased domestic and international cooperation among security and law enforcement agencies have also played a role in weakening al-Qaeda, said Rohan Gunaratna of Singapore’s Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, speaking before an independent commission examining the Sept. 11 attacks.

“When you hunt the terrorist organization relentlessly, that group does not have the time, space or the resources to plan, prepare and execute big operations like 9/11,” Gunaratna said.

The United States could face a renewed threat, however, if antiterrorism vigilance decreased and if U.S. foreign policy continues to cause anti-American sentiments among Muslims, according to experts.

“Although we seem to understand the formal structure of al-Qaeda, we have yet to grasp the broader context and the forces that make such organizations appealing to many people in the Muslim world,” said Mamoun Fandy of the U.S. Institute of Peace (Michelle Mittelstadt, Dallas Morning News, July 10).

Fandy said the United States should conduct a major public relations campaign in the Muslim world to improve its image.

“Although we are winning the war against the organization called al-Qaeda, we seem to be losing the cultural war,” Fandy said.

One concern is the U.S. choice of allies in the region, said Dennis Ross, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“We are resented in no small part because we are seen as using democracy as a tool or weapon against those we don’t like, but never against those we do like,” Ross said.  “We are seen as mouthing the words of democracy but then supporting regimes seen as repressive,” he said (Laurence Arnold, Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, July 10).

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