North Korea:  Pyongyang Says It Plans to Assemble Nuclear Weapons Soon

North Korean officials last week told the United States that North Korea has reprocessed enough uranium to build a half-dozen nuclear weapons and that it intends to take that step soon, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 14).

U.S. intelligence agencies are now trying to determine if Pyongyang is telling the truth.

“It’s the mirror image of the Iraq problem,” said one U.S. official.  “We spent years looking for evidence Iraq was lying when it said it didn’t have a nuclear program.  Now North Korea says it’s about to go nuclear, and everyone is trying to figure out whether they’ve finally done it, or if it’s the big lie,” the official added (David Sanger, New York Times, July 15).

Some experts have expressed doubts about the nuclear claims.

“It could be done if (the North Koreans) used shortcuts and wanted to risk (nuclear) contamination,” said a former U.N. weapons inspector who has visited North Korea (Stewart Stogel, Washington Times, July 15).

A U.S. envoy met in New York with North Korean U.N. representative Park Gil Yon last week, according to a State Department official.  The official would not comment, however, on the nature of their discussions (Agence France-Presse, July 15).

Naval Blockade Is War, Pyongyang Says

North Korea, meanwhile, said that a proposed naval blockade of the communist country would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

“If the United States expands the sea blockade to include international waters, it would become a prelude to war,” said the state-run North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun (Yonhap News Agency/Korea Times, July 15).

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, however, dismissed the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack.  Self-proclaimed North Korean spokesman Kim Myong Chol said Australia might be attacked if it takes part in the effort to interdict North Korean ships.

“If Australia becomes part of American manipulation against North Korea, North Korea reserves the right to strike back on Australia — that is the official North Korean position,” Kim said.

However, Downer said North Korea does not have the capability to hit Australia with nuclear missiles.

“We don’t believe for a minute North Korea would launch some kind of nuclear attack against Australia, or have the capacity to fire nuclear missiles that sort of distance.  That’s if they have the capacity to fire nuclear missiles at all,” he said (Jack Taylor, Agence France-Presse, July 15).

Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, meanwhile, warned that the Korean crisis is drifting toward war.  Six months ago, Perry said the situation was manageable, but it has deteriorated since then, he said.

“I think we are losing control,” Perry said.  “I have held off public criticism to this point because I had hoped that the administration was going to act on this problem, and that public criticism might be counterproductive.  But time is running out, and each month the problem gets more dangerous,” he added (Ricks/Kessler, Washington Post, July 15).

China Reaches Out to North Korea

Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il Monday, the Associated Press reported.

The two “had an in-depth exchanges of views on the nuclear issue between (North Korea) and the U.S. and international issues of mutual concern,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency said (Jae-suk Yoo, Associated Press/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, July 15).

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Iran:  Tehran Wants Talks But Washington Is Not Listening

Iranian officials are attempting to open negotiations with the United States over Tehran’s alleged nuclear development, but Washington is not interested, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, July 11).

“We are not reaching out at this point,” said a State Department official.

Tim Guldimann, the Swiss ambassador to Iran, also conveyed the message that Tehran wanted to talk.  Switzerland represents U.S. interests in Tehran (Guy Dinmore, Financial Times, July 15).

Mohammad Zarif, Iran’s U.N. ambassador, has been meeting with U.S. officials in an attempt to arrange talks.  Zarif has reportedly indicated that Iran would consider signing the Additional Protocol, which would open up its nuclear activities to closer International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, in exchange for direct talks.

Daniel Ayalon, the Israeli ambassador to Washington, last week said that Iran might be close to developing a nuclear weapon.

“The point of no return — where they are on the verge or on the way to get nuclear capabilities — is much, much smaller now, could be even a matter of a year or so,” Ayalon said (Guy Dinmore, Financial Times II, July 15).

European diplomats, meanwhile, are becoming frustrated by their offers of trade agreements to Tehran in exchange for negotiating concessions.

“There is a degree of major frustration.  There is a chink of light on the nuclear issue, total immobility on human rights, some movement but not much on terrorism and nothing at all on the Middle East peace process,” said a European ambassador in Tehran.

The European Union is demanding that Iran sign the Additional Protocol, or lose a trade deal with Europe.

“Iran claims to have peaceful intentions but that doesn’t mean a thing,” German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said earlier this month (Stefan Smith, Pakistan Dawn, July 15).

Japan Says Oil Not Linked to Nuclear Issue

In talks that begin this weekend, Tokyo will not combine the nuclear issue and the potential development of an Iranian oil field by Japanese companies, Asahi Shimbun reported today.

Yukiya Amano, the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s director general for arms control and scientific affairs, is expected to tell Iranian officials that Japan is not waiting for Iran to sign the Additional Protocol before Japanese companies develop the oil field.  U.S. officials have been pressuring Japan to hold off on the oil work while the nuclear issue remains unresolved (Asahi Shimbun, July 15).

Tehran Holding Al-Qaeda Members

Iran reportedly is holding several al-Qaeda members, including spokesman Sulaiman abu Ghaith, a senior Iranian official said this weekend.

U.S. officials have not publicly confirmed the report.

“We did have knowledge of a number of al-Qaeda people in Iran under some circumstance, rumors of them being taken into some kind of custody, the nature of which is unclear,” said a U.S. official (Azadeh Moaveni, Los Angeles Times, July 15).

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United States:  House Subcommittee Cuts New Nuclear Weapons Funding

A Republican-led House appropriations subcommittee rejected a $50 million White House request to study the development of new nuclear weapons, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 9).

Representative David Hobson (R-Ohio), chairman of the Energy and Water Development Subcommittee, said the Energy Department needed to focus on maintaining the existing U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile.

“Before we go blindly into new areas, we have to think about where we are and what we are doing with what we’ve got,” Hobson said.  “I did what I thought was the responsible thing to do, and my committee concurred,” he added.

U.S. officials said they would fight to reinstate the funding before the spending bill becomes law.  The $50 million could be reinstated by the full committee.

“I am disappointed they were reduced or eliminated and hope that when the final appropriations bill comes forward that the Congress will support the president on this,” said Linton Brooks, chief of the National Nuclear Security Administration.  “I think it’s important,” he added.

Democratic senators, who opposed the new nuclear research, supported Hobson’s move and called for similar cutbacks in the Senate (Carl Hulse, New York Times, July 15).

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France:  Former Defense Official Urges France to Emphasize Space-Based Programs

Former French Defense Minister Paul Quiles yesterday said France should decrease spending on nuclear weapons programs and use the savings to lead the European Union toward a new emphasis on space-based defense programs.

In a commentary in Le Figaro, Quiles called for EU spending of more than $3 billion annually on military space programs, including a French contribution of more than $1 billion each year.  He said France could free up the funds by cutting about $500 million, or about 15 percent, from its annual nuclear weapons budget.

“The current efforts in nuclear dissuasion seem particularly excessive in light of developments in the strategic environment.  They rest on programs that were defined mainly during the Cold War, when France faced the threat of a massive invasion of its territory by an overarmed nuclear power,” Quiles wrote.

“The threats of today are completely different.  They no longer justify an effort that accounts for 10 percent of the defense budget (compared with 3 percent in the United Kingdom),” he continued.

Quiles deemed insufficient current French spending on military space technology, which he put at more than $450 million, and backed ramping up funds for intelligence and communications satellites.  Increases in space spending, added Quiles, would encourage cooperation among EU countries on defense — made necessary by the recent conduct of the United States in the international arena, according to Quiles — and enable them to “accede to autonomy, that is, to freedom in evaluating risks and threats.”

“The same need for strategic autonomy should also lead Europe to develop an advance warning system allowing it [Europe] to detect the propulsive phase of ballistic missile strikes. … The military space program is also necessary to give Europe the broadband data transmission ability that is now required for carrying out integrated, real-time operations in remote theaters,” he said (Paul Quiles, Le Figaro, July 14, GSN translation).

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U.S. Response:  NNSA Lacks Airlift Capability for Nuclear Response Team

A recent report by the U.S. Energy Department’s inspector general says the National Nuclear Security Administration needs more aircraft to enable it to react quickly to a possible terrorist attack involving nuclear weapons, Energy Daily reported today (see GSN, July 9).

According to the report, the NNSA does not always have enough aircraft available to transport its Joint Technical Operation Team (JTOT) in the event of a nuclear attack.  In addition, the agency does not have contingency plans in place if its own aircraft are unavailable, the report says.

Currently, the NNSA has four aircraft available for use — a Gulfstream 3 long-range, high-speed jet; two Boeing DC-9 airliners; and a Lear jet, according to Energy Daily.  The report found, however, that the NNSA’s contract with the Gulfstream’s operator did not require that the plane be maintained on a permanent stand-by basis.  In addition, the Gulfstream 3 was also found to have been used for other purposes, it says.

The Lear jet is not an adequate substitute because of its limited range and smaller size, the report says.  It also says that the two DC-9 airliners are not capable of transporting JTOT personnel and equipment “to all possible incident sites.”

The Energy Department has also “not developed formal contingency plans” for the use of other aircraft, either civilian or military, in the event the NNSA aircraft were unavailable, according to the report.

“Based on these findings, we are concerned that JTOT personnel may not be able to respond as rapidly and effectively as necessary to address a potential terrorist incident,” Energy Inspector General Gregory Friedman said in the report.  “Specifically, given the national importance of the JTOT mission and the necessity of timely arrival of JTOT personnel and equipment at an incident site, uncertainties relating to aircraft capability are unacceptable,” he said (Nathan Hodge, Energy Daily, July 15).

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North Korea:  North Korea Reprocessing Fuel Rods, U.S. Official Says

The United States believes North Korea has recently begun reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods, a key first step toward building nuclear weapons, the Japan Times reported yesterday (see GSN, July 11).

U.S. intelligence agencies have analyzed air samples and detected krypton 85, a byproduct of reprocessing, according to a U.S. official.

The new intelligence was sent to the White House Thursday, according to a television report (Japan Times, July 13).

During informal talks in New York, North Korean representatives told U.S. diplomats that they have completed reprocessing the spent fuel rods, according to former South Korean lawmaker Chang Sung-min (Korea Herald, July 14).

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun’s foreign policy adviser said, however, that there is “no scientific evidence” that North Korea has reprocessed fuel rods.

“We’re not at the stage of being able to confirm anything,” said Ban Ki-moon (Paul Eckert, Reuters, July 14).

South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan agreed that there was no conclusive evidence of reprocessing.

“There have been no scientific data and evidence to confirm North Korea has finished reprocessing spent fuel rods,” Yoon said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 14).

North and South Korea, meanwhile, agreed to hold “appropriate” talks to defuse the nuclear crisis.  The decision came at the end of ministerial meetings, which wrapped up Saturday.

“South and North Korea will resolve the nuclear issue peacefully through appropriate dialogue,” according to a joint statement (Kim So-young, Korea Herald, July 14).

Pentagon Plan “Provocative”

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered U.S. military leaders to draw up plans for another war on the Korean Peninsula, but some officials are saying the plan itself could push Pyongyang toward conflict, U.S. News & World Report reported.

The plan is being developed by Adm. Thomas Fargo, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, and senior Pentagon officials.

“Some of the things (Fargo) is being asked to do are, shall we say, provocative,” a senior U.S. official said.

“Plan 5030” includes maneuvers that could drain North Korean resources and test its military, the magazine reported (Auster/Whitelaw, U.S. News & World Report, July 21).

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United States:  House Bill Would Bring 23 B-1 Bombers Back Into Service

The fiscal 2004 defense appropriations bill approved last week by the U.S. House of Representatives includes $20 million to return more than 20 retired B-1 nuclear-capable bombers back to active service, the Abilene Reporter-News reported Friday (see GSN, June 2).

The $20 million included in the House bill would bring 23 out of 32 retired B-1s back into active service.  In 2001, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld reduced the U.S. B-1 fleet of 93 bombers by a third because of cost concerns, according to the Reporter-News.  The House bill also includes $97 million to purchase parts for the B-1 fleet and more than $88 million for research and development.

The Senate version of the bill, which is expected to be considered within a week, does not contain the $20 million to reactivate retired B-1 bombers, but instead contains $100 million for parts and more than $88 million for research and development, according to the Reporter-News.  Senators Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-Texas) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) are considering whether reactivating the retired bombers is viable, where the $20 million in funding would come from and whether that amount is enough, spokespeople for the senators said.

While the $20 million is enough to fund the retired bombers for a year, more funding would be needed to cover maintenance and personnel costs, said Bill Ehrie, retired commander of Dyess Air Fore Base in Texas, which has 32 active B-1s (Tara Copp, Abilene Reporter-News, July 11).

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Iran:  Tehran Continues to Deny IAEA Sampling at New Facility

During a trip this week to Tehran, International Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed ElBaradei failed to persuade Iran to allow IAEA officials to take samples from uranium enrichment centrifuge facilities, according to diplomats in Vienna (see GSN, July 10).

After ElBaradei broached the sampling proposal, Iranian officials “didn’t say yes and they didn’t say no,” according to a diplomat (see GSN, June 12).

ElBaradei was also unsuccessful in his attempt to push Iran to sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would allow further access to nuclear activities.  IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said the protocol would not lead to the same inspections that were conducted in neighboring Iraq.

“There is a misconception that the Additional Protocol is like the draconian measures we had in Iraq,” Gwozdecky said.  “But it doesn’t give us absolute rights,” he added (Reuters/Pakistan Business Recorder, July 11).

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North Korea:  Opposition Leader Urges U.S. Military Action

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The leader of a North Korean opposition group visited here this week to encourage the Bush administration to mount U.S. military strikes against North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s regime (see GSN, July 10).

Park Gab Dong, chairman of the National Salvation Front for Democratic Reunification of Korea, said North Korea will not honor any treaty obligations or allow inspectors true access to the country’s nuclear activities.

U.S. leaders have been pushing for a diplomatic solution to the Korean nuclear crisis, but the two countries have been unable to agree on a format for the talks.  U.S. Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) recently proposed a plan in which North Korea would open its nuclear facilities to inspection and eventually dismantle them in return for aid and security guarantees (see GSN, June 30).

Weldon said his plan was well received by North Korean officials.

U.S. President George W. Bush has pointedly refused to rule out the possibility of military strikes if Pyongyang cannot be otherwise dissuaded from developing nuclear weapons.

“The pillar of the North Korean regime is the 1.2-million strong Korean People’s Army,” Park said.  He told Global Security Newswire that Kim would not be ousted “unless you dismantle the army.”

The National Salvation Front — composed of 200 former North Korean officials — claims to have contacts in the upper echelons of Pyongyang’s leadership circles.  Citing sources in Pyongyang, Park said North Korean military officials understand that they cannot defeat the United States in a second Korean War and would most likely overthrow Kim in the face of an overwhelming U.S. attack.

Park said if the United States attacked North Korea, the People’s Army would most likely collapse within three days.

Invited to Washington by the Senate Republican Policy Committee, Park has been meeting with Defense Department officials and lawmakers to push for precision strikes against North Korean nuclear and military facilities. 

Korea is “so tightly controlled, there is no possibility of a popular revolt,” he said.

Park was the leader of South Korea’s socialist Worker’s Party before the Korean War, and after the 1953 armistice he took up residence in Pyongyang as a senior official in the North Korean Culture and Propaganda Ministry.  However, Kim Il Sung, who ruled North Korea from its inception through 1994, began to purge South Korean-born members of his government soon after the fighting ended.

Park spent three years in North Korean prisons before Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev pressured the reclusive communist country to release political prisoners.  Upon his release in 1959, Park immediately moved to Tokyo, formed the National Salvation Front and has been working toward the “sole plan of toppling that communist government,” he said.

During a visit to Washington in 1998, Park said his calls for military action were not well received.  On his current visit, however, he said officials “were much more sympathetic … there has been a marked change.”

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Ukraine:  Parliament Criticizes U.S. Decision to Suspend Funding for SS-34 Disposal

The Ukrainian Parliament today criticized the United States for suspending funding to a project to eliminate former Soviet SS-24 ICBMs, according to ITAR-Tass (see GSN, Jan. 31).  The project was in its final stage, the utilization of nuclear fuel, when Washington decided to suspend funding (Vitaly Matarykin, ITAR-Tass, July 11).

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United States I:  Senator Pushes for B-2 Maintenance Funding

U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is pushing to include more than $30 million in the fiscal 2004 defense appropriations bill to fix cracks in the tail deck of the B-2 stealth bomber, Inside the Air Force reported today (see GSN, June 4).

“It’s a real problem that has to be fixed,” Feinstein said during the July 8 Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee markup of the 2004 spending bill.  Defense contractor Northrop Grumman, which does repair work on the B-2s, reportedly lobbied Feinstein to add the funding.

The House Appropriations Committee included $27 million for aft deck modifications in its version of the bill, but the Senate did not include funding.  Feinstein is campaigning for the $27 million and another $3.8 million for Northrop Grumman to develop a long-term solution to the problem, according to Inside the Air Force.

The cracking “is not a safety-of-flight issue,” according to Jim Hart, spokesman for Northrop Grumman’s Integrated Systems division.  Air Force officials said, however, that the B-2’s performance could be affected.

“Without intervention, cracks in the aft deck’s skin may propagate to the point of affecting the stealthiness of the B-2,” the Air Combat Command said in a statement (Hampton Stephens, Inside the Air Force, July 11).

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NPT:  Tajikistan Signs IAEA Safeguards Agreement, Additional Protocol

Tajikistan signed a safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency Tuesday and also signed the related IAEA Additional Protocol, according to a Russian Foreign Ministry press release (see GSN, April 16).  The ministry praised the move, saying it was a “practical contribution” to strengthening the international nuclear nonproliferation regime and to the establishing a Central Asian nuclear weapons-free zone (see GSN, March 11; Russian Foreign Ministry release, July 8).

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United States II:  British Teen Hacks Into U.S. Nuclear Laboratory Computers

A British teenager was arrested Wednesday after allegedly gaining electronic access to computers at a U.S. nuclear laboratory and using extra disk space to store his music and video files, the London Times reported (see GSN, July 9).

The 18-year-old gained access to computers at the Energy Department’s Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, according to the Times.

The hacker stored files on 17 different computers at the laboratory, and he helped others gain access to the laboratory system to download the files.  The computers that were breached did not hold classified information and the system was shut down two weeks after it was breached, according to a spokeswoman for the laboratory.

“The hacker or hackers were taking advantage of our big volume of disk space to store their files,” the spokeswoman said.  “It normally takes an hour to back up our system.  But suddenly we noticed it asking about eight hours, so we new something was up,” she added.

The teenager was released on bail and his computers are being examined by police (Steve Bird, London Times, July 11).

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Iran:  Tehran Agrees to More Meetings, But Not More Inspections

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei was not able to persuade Iran to sign the Additional Protocol that would permit more intrusive monitoring of its nuclear program, but Iranian officials did consent to additional discussions with IAEA officials, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, July 9).

After meeting with officials in Tehran, ElBaradei yesterday said he hoped further negotiations would lead to a signing of the protocol.

“We have not discussed a timeframe for signing the protocol, but we agreed that a team of experts would come to Iran to discuss the areas that Iran needs clarification on,” he said.  “I hope that once these issues have been clarified, Iran will be in a position to sign the protocol.  But naturally that is a decision for the Iranian government to make,” ElBaradei said.

Iranian atomic energy agency chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh said his organization would prepare a report on the protocol and the government would make a decision whether to sign it or not.  While talks with IAEA officials are expected to begin as early as next week, some Western diplomats in Tehran said that Iran has little time to make its nuclear program more transparent, AFP reported.

“Confidence takes time to build,” ElBaradei said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 10).

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said the talks were “positive and friendly.”

He criticized the IAEA, however, for not insisting on nuclear inspections in Israel.

“However, Iran is already a signatory to the NPT [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] and has a very transparent cooperation with IAEA, and is determined to continue this cooperation,” Kharrazi said (IRNA News Agency/BBC Monitoring, July 10).

Some Western diplomats are concerned that Iran could agree to the Additional Protocol, and then obstruct inspections by insisting on conditions and debating the minutia of IAEA reports.

“The Iranians are masters of putting the devil in the detail,” a diplomat said (Azadeh Moaveni, Los Angeles Times, July 10).

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North Korea:  North Korea Ready to Talk, Ready to Fight

A North Korean delegation told South Korean diplomats today that Pyongyang is willing to resolve the current nuclear crisis through diplomacy, but is also prepared for war, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 9).

“Throughout history, our nation has been harassed by foreign invaders,” said North Korean negotiator Kim Ryong Song, during a meeting in Seoul.  “We will no longer succumb to foreign coercion and we are fully ready to launch counterattacks.  We are ready for both war and dialogue,” he added (Jae-suk Yoo, Associated Press, July 10).

At the meeting, North Korea reportedly rejected calls for multilateral talks.  Seoul also proposed talks between the countries’ defense ministers and offered large-scale aid if North Korea abandoned its nuclear weapons ambitions.

North Korea has not yet replied to either proposal, Yonhap News Agency reported (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, July 10).

Aid Does Not Buy Influence in Pyongyang

Recently uncovered files from former Soviet bloc countries have shown that North Korea relied on aid from its allies but did not reciprocate with obedience.

Scholars have been examining documents in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia and Germany.

“It shows how dependent North Korea has always been, and how extremely skillful it has always been at getting enough aid,” said Kathryn Weathersby, who runs the Korea Initiative at the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Cold War International History Project in Washington.  “It also shows that over the decades, China and Russia gave a lot of aid but gained very limited leverage,” she added.

Some U.S. lawmakers have recently proposed giving large amounts of aid to North Korea in exchange for nuclear disarmament (see GSN, June 30; Jasper Becker, Christian Science Monitor, July 10).

U.N. Action Possible

The U.N. Security Council could take action soon to pressure North Korea, a U.S. official said today.

“We are preparing in New York for some statement and we are discussing among the experts, and the timing will have to be based on some consensus among the permanent members, Japan, Korea and others,” said the official.  “But sooner or later — we think sooner — the UNSC also has to say clearly to North Korea, ‘You must go to talks and you must give up nuclear weapons,’” the official added (Hiroki Fukuda, Asahi Shimbun, July 10).

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South Asia:  India, Pakistan Agree to Attend Regional Summit in January

The leaders of India and Pakistan will attend a January South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Islamabad, Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 26).

Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal today said Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf would attend the summit.  The two leaders have not spoken since last year’s SAARC summit, where they only spoke to each other during public appearances, according to AP (see GSN, Jan. 7, 2002).

This year’s SAARC summit was canceled because India refused to attend, AP reported.  All seven SAARC members must agree for a meeting to occur (Ashok Sharma, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 10). 

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Iran I:  Tehran Says More Trust Needed Before Signing Additional Protocol

Iranian officials said today they need to develop mutual confidence with the International Atomic Energy Agency before they can discuss signing the Additional Protocol that would provide more intrusive monitoring of Tehran’s nuclear activities (see GSN, July 8).

IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is Tehran today to urge Iran to sign the protocol.  The United States has accused Iran of secretly developing nuclear weapons, but Iran insists its nuclear development is for civilian purposes only.

“For the moment we have not discussed the signing of the Additional Protocol.  These talks are to build mutual trust through listening to what each side has to say and hearing each other’s demands,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Asefi (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 9).

ElBaradei would not say if he had discussed the Additional Protocol in initial talks with Iranian officials, but said “the discussions were constructive and are moving in a positive direction, toward creating confidence … If Iran displays a maximum of transparency, it is its right to use nuclear energy in a peaceful way.”

He also denied that the IAEA is responding to U.S. pressure for inspections in Iran, saying, “we are an independent organization” (Agence France-Presse/Le Figaro, July 9, GSN translation).

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said Iran would put its own interest first before signing the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement.

“Public opinion in Iran are sensitive to this issue and the only way to persuade Iranian people and politicians in this regard is to secure the interests of the country,” Kharrazi said (Iranian Foreign Ministry release, July 9).

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CTBT:  U.S. Will Skip Test Ban Treaty Conference in September

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Reflecting its unwillingness to permanently renounce nuclear weapons test explosions, the Bush administration has decided not to attend an international conference in September to encourage other countries to adopt the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, officials told Global Security Newswire this week (see GSN, July 7).

“It didn’t seem appropriate for us, given our refusal to ratify the treaty, to go to this thing as a state party … [and] since we’re not playing ball, to be telling them to play ball,” said one U.S. official.

The United States is one of 13 holdout countries whose ratification is required before the treaty can take effect.

The 2003 Conference on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is scheduled to take place in Vienna on Sept. 3-5.

“Given our decision with regard to the treaty it just didn’t make any sense to attend this particular meeting,” the official said.

“That has a logic to it,” said Daniela Rozgonova, public affairs chief for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, which administers the treaty and is organizing the conference.

She said the United States has not yet formally notified the organization of its decision, but that the move was no surprise because the United States boycotted the only previous such conference in 2001 (see GSN, Nov. 12, 2001).

“They told you more than they told us.  We sort of expected that something like that might come, but we were not informed yet,” she said.

The U.S. decision drew criticism from Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

“This is an acknowledgement of the limitations of the administration’s ‘Do as I say, not as I do’ nonproliferation strategy and a sad commentary on the administration’s commitment, or lack thereof, to take tangible steps to verifiably limit the nuclear weapons capabilities of other states,” he said.

“Furthermore, it begs the question of why the administration does not consider the CTBT or further limits on nuclear testing to be an essential part of the U.S. and global nonproliferation strategy.  Do they tolerate nuclear testing by India, Pakistan, or China or Russia?  This approach serves as a wink, wink, nod, nod to those states who choose to resume nuclear testing,” Kimball said.

U.S. Opposes Restrictions

Since the treaty was opened for signature in 1996, 162 states have signed on, and 102 of those have ratified the treaty.

Of the 44 specific countries that must ratify the treaty before it can enter into force, the United States is the only Western state out of 13 holdouts that include Algeria, China, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel and Vietnam.  The holdouts also include India, Pakistan and North Korea which ot signed the treaty.

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton signed the treaty in 1996 but the Senate decisively opposed the treaty in a formal vote in 1999 and President George W. Bush has indicated that he opposes ratification.

The Bush administration this year requested and appears likely to receive congressional authority to shorten the preparation time necessary to resume underground testing from 36 months to 18 months.  Officials have said an 11-year U.S. moratorium on testing remains in place but have asserted that future testing might be needed to deal with unanticipated nuclear weapons stockpile problems or for developing new nuclear weapons (see GSN, May 14).

Critics have charged resuming testing is not necessary to maintain the stockpile and that the administration’s unwillingness to ratify the treaty, and its contemplation of developing new low-yield nuclear weapons that might require testing, undermine the treaty’s purpose and global enlistment efforts.

Administration Values Treaty Products

Despite opposition to the treaty’s ban, the Bush administration apparently continues to value much of the infrastructure created for implementing the treaty.  The United States remains the largest dues payer to the treaty organization and is a major contributor to the rapidly growing international system of nuclear test monitoring stations.

“As you know, we do participate in other meetings of the permanent technical secretariat insofar as they relate to the international monitoring system, in which we continue to participate,” the administration official said.

Rozgonova said the United States stands to benefit from the monitoring system.

“They are interested because though the United States has a lot of stations itself around the globe, they cannot have as many as we will have in this system that we are building,” she said.

The treaty organization has been working toward positioning 321 monitoring stations and 16 radionuclide laboratories in countries around the world to monitor for evidence of nuclear explosions.  More than 100 facilities are currently in place and the United States contributes nearly 40 of them.

“We appreciate the fact that the Americans indeed pay their contributions and support the buildup of the monitoring system,” Rozgonova said.

However, the Bush administration has withheld dues for funding the organization’s on-site inspection capabilities (see GSN, March 19, 2002).

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Iran II:  Pilot Uranium Enrichment Facility Under Direct Supervision of Military, Opposition Group Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A leading Iranian opposition group yesterday alleged that Iran had constructed two previously unknown nuclear facilities, with one operating under the direct supervision of the Iranian military, adding doubts to Tehran’s claims that it is seeking to develop a civilian nuclear program (see GSN, May 27).

At a press conference yesterday, Alireza Jafarzadeh, a spokesman for the National Council of Resistance of Iran, described the two facilities — the Kolahdouz complex, located between Tehran and the city of Karaj in Northern Iran, and the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit, located northeast of the city of Yazd.  Iran’s uranium mining operation is also located about 125 miles from Yazd, Jafarzadeh said.

In the past six months, the Iranian Defense Industry Organization has established a pilot uranium enrichment facility at the Kolahdouz complex, which houses a number of warehouses and workshops used to produce military vehicles, Jafarzadeh said.  The pilot facility is housed in one warehouse at the complex, which is hidden among others to avoid attention, he said.  The facility already has centrifuge equipment installed there and information indicates that Iran plans to use the facility to conduct enrichment testing, Jafarzadeh said, adding that the experience obtained at this facility will be applied at the main Iranian uranium enrichment site in Natanz.  The facility is also meant to supplement the Natanz site in case it is damaged in an attacked, he said.

In late May, two senior Iranian military officials hid a number of containers related to the pilot enrichment facility at a second warehouse at the Kolahdouz complex, Jafarzadeh said.  He was unable to provide further detail as to the contents of the containers or their purpose, but said that a “great emphasis” has been placed on maintaining the secrecy of the containers’ existence.

The pilot enrichment facility located at the Kolahdouz complex is under the direct supervision of the head of the Iranian Defense Industry Organization, Jafarzadeh said.  Such direct supervision of a nuclear-related facility by the military counters Tehran’s claims that it pursuing only a civilian nuclear power program, he said.

The Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit, scheduled to be completed within two years, is designed to produce uranium concentrate, or “yellowcake,” according to Jafarzadeh.  The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization’s nuclear fuel directorate supervises the site, he said.

Jafarzadeh said that the council has made its information available to both the Bush administration and the International Atomic Energy Agency.  IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei arrived in Iran today as part of efforts to attempt to convince Iran to sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would allow the agency to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Tehran’s nuclear-related activities, according to Reuters (see related GSN story, today).

The council is affiliated with the People’s Mujahedin organization, whose network within Iran provided information on the two facilities, according to Jafarzadeh.  The U.S. State Department has formally identified the People’s Mujahedin, also known as Mujahedin-e Khalq, as a terrorist organization.  Mujahedin-e Khalq is a Marxist-influenced group that conducted terrorist attacks in the 1970s that killed U.S. military and civilian personnel in Iran has a long history of attacks against the Iranian clerical regime and advocates a secular government, according to a Federation of American Scientists fact sheet.

Jafarzadeh defended the council’s credibility, noting the information the group revealed in August 2002 on the Natanz enrichment facility and a heavy water production facility near the city of Arak — information later confirmed by the IAEA.  Jafarzadeh also criticized the designation of the People’s Mujahedin as a terrorist organization, saying that the designation was a misguided attempt by the Clinton administration at appeasing the so-called “moderate” regime of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and that such appeasement had only aided Iran in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

According to Jafarzadeh, the Kolahdouz complex site and the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit are intended for use in a complete nuclear fuel cycle, which Khatami outlined in a speech in February.  The first stage of such a cycle would be the mining of uranium near the city of Saghand.  The uranium ore would then be sent for processing at the Ardekan site.  Then, the uranium concentrate would be sent to a uranium conversion facility in Isfahan, where a number of byproducts needed for uranium enrichment would be created, such as uranium hexaflouride and uranium oxide.  Lastly, the uranium concentrate and the byproducts would be transported to Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz for enrichment and fuel pellet production.

Iran “is heading all out to gain access to nuclear weapons,” Jafarzadeh said.  “The whole purpose behind such an ambitious nuclear weapons program is [to] gain the upper hand in the region, thus creating fear and terror, which would pave the way for reviving the Ottoman Empire and expanding the Iranian clerics’ satanic hegemony in the region,” he said.

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United States:  Democrats Fear New Effort to Repeal Mininukes Production Ban

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are planning to conduct a parliamentary maneuver soon intended to prevent an anticipated Republican attempt to repeal a 10-year-old ban on developing and producing new low-yield nuclear weapons (see GSN, May 23).

“I can absolutely confirm that Republicans in the House-Senate conference on the defense authorization act are trying to back away from … the 10-year-old Spratt-Furse ban,” said a House Armed Services Committee member’s aide, who asked not to be identified.

That ban prevents the Bush administration from conducting major research and development into small nuclear weapons, and the House and Senate have each approved partial repeals of the ban in their respective versions of the defense authorization bill.  Differences between the two versions are scheduled to be resolved in a House-Senate conference this month  (see GSN, June 24).

House Democrats plan to offer a “motion to instruct,” the staffer said, describing a maneuver where any minority House member can require the entire House to vote to advise its conferees to insist on certain legislative language in the conference.  Such motions do not bind the conferees to accept the recommendation, but it would force Republicans to indicate whether they intend to stand by the language the House already approved.

In May, the House approved its version of the 2004 defense authorization bill and partially repealed restrictions on research — but not on development or production — of low-yield nuclear weapons.

“We’re trying to force a vote on whether or not they actually support the language they’ve already voted on,” the aide said.

Total Repeal Allegedly Sought in Conference

The Precision Low-Yield Weapons Development Law, passed as part of the 1994 defense authorization bill, allows early research and development of low-yield nuclear weapons — those with yields equivalent to less than 5 kilotons of TNT — but prohibits research and development that could lead to the production of  such weapons.

The White House and some senior House Armed Services Committee Republicans, including Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Ind.), are seeking a full repeal of the ban.  The Bush administration advocates development of new low-yield nuclear weapons for potential use against deeply buried targets and suspected chemical and biological weapons stocks.

“Maintaining the prohibition on development will hinder the ability of our scientists and engineers to explore technical options to deter national security threats of the 21st century,” the White House said in a May statement.

Critics charge developing such weapons could undermine international nonproliferation efforts and foster insecurity about U.S. intentions, which could drive certain countries to accelerate efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

A full repeal of the law, Representative John Spratt (D-S.C.) said in May, would be “backsliding on a decade of progress on nuclear weapons [arms control], especially our move away from tactical, or ‘battlefield’ nukes, a move begun by [former] President [George H.W.] Bush … in 1991.”

“They are preparing the way for testing and new weapons,” said John Isaacs, president of the Council for a Livable World arms control organization.

In May, the Republican-led House Armed Services Committee voted for a partial repeal.  It adopted compromise language that would allow full research but not full development or production, and that language was later approved by the full House as part of the 2004 defense authorization bill.

The Senate also approved a partial repeal that would allow research and development, but would require the administration to seek further congressional authorization  before “testing, acquisition or deployment.”

Now Democrats believe House Republican leaders aim to write in a total repeal during a conference of members from both chambers to resolve differences in their respective versions of the bill.

“It’s clear in conference that you’ve got House Republicans trying to back away from it [the compromise language],” according to the aide.

The staffer said that during recent informal House-Senate negotiations, Strategic Forces Subcommittee Chairman Terry Everett (R-Ala.) indicated House Republican intentions to work for a total repeal.

“When the first meeting of the panel dealing with these issues met, the chairman of the House subcommittee opened the meeting by basically saying ‘let’s go with what you guys did on mini-nukes, except drop all those caveats,’ which means, let’s just repeal the damn thing,” said the staffer.

Staff members for Everett and Hunter did not respond to requests for comment.

Insufficient Outrage

A significant question looms as to whether the Senate Republican conferees would be willing to join House Republicans in fully repealing the ban over opposition from Senate Democrats, congressional aides said.

The Senate Armed Services Committee in May had voted for a full repeal (see GSN, May 9), but when faced with a Democratic challenge on the Senate floor that looked likely to succeed, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R-Va.) introduced a compromise amendment for a partial appeal that was approved.

Democrats say if Warner and Hunter, the senior Republican conferees, now decide to push through a total repeal, the only recourse Democrats would have is to try to muster sufficient Democratic and Republican opposition to the entire defense bill over the issue. 

Such a move would probably fail, however.

“There’s not remotely that level of outrage.  There’s an awful a lot of Democrats who are concerned about it, but it’s not even unanimous within the Democratic caucus,” the staffer said.

The only real leverage the Democrats may have is that Republicans might prefer to achieve bipartisan support for the defense bill, and if Republicans in the conference trampled Democrats on many other issues, it could produce a large Democratic vote against the conference report.

Republican leaders will “try to measure their ability to railroad things through with this desire to keep enough Democrats around,” the staffer said.

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North Korea:  Seoul Says North Korea Reprocessed Some Fuel Rods

South Korean intelligence officials believe North Korea has reprocessed a small number of spent nuclear fuel rods, a key first step toward producing nuclear weapons, Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 8).

“We believe that North Korea has reprocessed a small portion of the 8,000 spent rods,” the National Intelligence Service said in a report to the Korean National Assembly.

North Korea has previously claimed to have reprocessed all of its 8,000 spent fuel rods, but Washington and Seoul had treated those assertions as highly suspect (Soo-jeong Lee, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 9).

A North Korean delegation in Seoul for talks said that a peaceful solution to the nuclear crisis is possible, despite “the black clouds of a nuclear war.”

“Our nation faces a stark situation as the black clouds of a nuclear war are coming toward the Korean Peninsula minute by minute,” a North Korean statement said.  “No one can fathom the calamitous consequences if the crisis situation crosses the critical point and ignites a war,” it added (Christopher Torchia, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 9).

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said today that North Korea would receive assistance if it dismantled its nuclear development program.

“North Korea must dismantle its nuclear project,” Roh said in Beijing.  “It has to choose the path of peace and coexistence with others.  No nation in the international community believes that the nuclear project will assure its future,” he added.

Roh also said that Pyongyang should not be isolated but “no nation has a right to threaten the security of neighboring states and the stability of the region” (Martin Parry, Agence France-Presse, July 9).

Iranian Ship Visits North Korea

Meanwhile, an Iranian cargo ship visited North Korea last week and may have picked up weapons, a South Korean newspaper reported.

Intelligence officials said the ship docked at Haeju, 75 miles south of Pyongyang, according to the JoongAng Ilbo.

The South Korean Defense Ministry did not confirm the report (Associated Press, July 8).

Tokyo Businessman Knew Exports Were Going North

The president of a Tokyo trading house that allegedly exported nuclear weapons components knew the shipments were destined for North Korea, the Sankei Shimbun reported today.

“I thought they would be delivered to the North,” said Kim Hak Chun during questioning by police.

The trading house, Meishin, allegedly intended to send the components to Pyongyang through Thailand (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring, July 9).

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United States II:  NNSA Announces New Initiative to Improve Security

The U.S. Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration yesterday announced a new five-part security initiative designed to improve security at NNSA sites, according to an administration press release (see GSN, June 25).

NNSA Administrator Linton Brooks has ordered managers to immediately assign additional security experts to speed the administration’s response to security management concerns identified in recent months at U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories, according to the NNSA release.

Brooks has also called for increased surveillance of security activities at the weapons laboratories, with site managers to provide Brooks personally with biweekly reports on the results of the increased surveillance, as well as ordering that recommendations from previous studies be reviewed to ensure that all appropriate measures have been implemented.

In addition, Brooks has also established two review groups to assess long-range security concerns, the NNSA release said.  One group, headed by retired Adm. Richard Mies, will examine new physical security measures and improvements in materials control and accountability programs at the weapons laboratories.  The second panel, headed by retired Adm. Hank Chiles, will develop recommendations for improved recruitment and retention of security experts to oversee security activities at NNSA sites.

“While there has been no compromise of classified material or loss of special nuclear material, the nation cannot tolerate any degradation in our security posture, and thus problems must not be allowed to persist,” Brooks said.  “I am taking immediate action to ensure myself personally that NNSA is taking vigorous actions to improve and maintain security,” he said (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, July 8).

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Correction

In a story yesterday on a conference to encourage the entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Global Security Newswire incorrectly reported the time period after which conferences may be held to encourage entry into force (see GSN, July 7).  Article XIV of the treaty says such conferences may be convened at the request of a majority of ratifying states if the treaty has not entered into force three years after it was opened for signature, which was in 1996.

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