Iran:  Inspectors Discover Enriched Uranium in Samples

U.N. inspectors have detected enriched uranium in environmental samples taken from Iran, Reuters reported today (see GSN, July 17).

The enrichment level of the uranium might indicate that Iran was attempting to make weapon-grade uranium, diplomats said.  Iran did not notify the International Atomic Energy Agency of its enrichment plans.

On its own, however, the discovery is not conclusive evidence that Tehran was enriching uranium, according to the diplomats.

“The results of environmental sample analyses are being reviewed at the agency, and we expect to take more samples over the next few weeks,” IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said.

“Only the IAEA will be in a position to judge the significance of the analysis results.  At this point, we are still in the middle of a complex inspection process in Iran, in which we are investigating a number of unresolved issues,” she added (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, July 18).

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U.S.-Russia I:  Washington, Moscow Sign Plutonium Reactor Access Accord

U.S. and Russian officials signed an agreement in Moscow yesterday giving non-Russian personnel access to two closed nuclear cities where Russia has agreed to shut down its only remaining plutonium production reactors.  The agreement will enable U.S.-funded contractors to enter the cities and construct two coal-burning power plants to replace the three nuclear weapon plants that also provide power and heat to surrounding communities.

Yesterday’s signing advances a long-established, U.S.-Russian agreement in principle to end Russian plutonium production which continues at the cities of Seversk, formerly Tomsk-7, and Zheleznogorsk, formerly Kranoyarsk-26.

“Replacing these reactors with fossil fuel energy is critical to eliminating the production of weapons-grade plutonium in Russia and closing these facilities,” said U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham.

Abraham and Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyanstev formally signed the reactor shutdown plan in March (see GSN, March 12) and in May the United States selected contractors to perform the work (see GSN, May 28).  The reactors are expected to shut down in five to eight years.

The access agreement allows outsiders to perform activities related to building the new power plants, but negotiators are still working on an access agreement to allow outside experts to install reactor safety improvements while they continue to operate.

“This is one further step in what has been a long process,” said Matthew Bunn, a researcher at Harvard University in Boston (Josef Hebert, Associated Press/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, July 18).

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India:  U.S. Company Pleads Guilty to Nuclear-Related Export Violations

The U.S. freight-forwarding company DSV Samson Transport pleaded guilty yesterday to violating U.S export control regulations designed to prevent nuclear proliferation by forwarding more than 30 shipments to India from 1999 to 2001, according to a U.S. Commerce Department press release (see GSN, July 3).

In its guilty plea, DSV Samson admitted to forwarding at least 36 shipments to Indian entities, including the Indian Atomic Energy Department’s Directorate of Purchase and Stores, without required export licenses, the Commerce release said.  U.S. District Court Judge Royce Lamberth sentenced the company to a $250,000 fine, an $800 special assessment and five years probation.  In addition, DSV Samson reached an agreement with Commerce’s Industry and Security Bureau to pay a civil penalty of $399,000 to resolve related administrative charges.

“This case demonstrates that the Department of Commerce will hold freight forwarders accountable for fulfilling their responsibilities under our export-control laws,” Acting Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Enforcement Lisa Prager said.  “Forwarders play a key role in the global supply chain.  As such, it is important that they be extremely attentive to their export control obligations,” she said (U.S. Commerce Department release, July 17).

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North Korea:  Chinese Official Heading to Washington

Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo left Beijing for Washington yesterday to meet with White House officials and discuss the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the New York Times reported (see GSN, July 17).

Dai recently returned from a four-day visit to Pyongyang, according to the Times.

“China hopes to see the quick resumption of the peace talks,” said Kong Quan, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry.  “The purpose of the Beijing talks would be to seek a final settlement to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” Kong added (Joseph Kahn, New York Times, July 18).

China is pushing to resolve the issue, Kong said.

Beijing also called for calm on the peninsula after an exchange of gunfire across the DMZ this week.  Kong urged the two nations to avoid pushing the confrontation further (Chinese People’s Daily, July 17).

China believes North Korea has reprocessed enough plutonium to develop a nuclear weapon, spurring the latest push in Chinese diplomacy, the Wall Street Journal reported today.

“The Chinese are scared,” said a Western diplomat in Beijing.  “It’s in their interests to keep open the process of negotiations for as long as possible,” the diplomat said.

Beijing’s intelligence services have determined that North Korea has the nuclear material and the equipment necessary to build a weapon, according to Western diplomats and officials who have seen or were briefed on internal Chinese government documents (Charles Hutzler, Wall Street Journal, July 18).

Russia Wants Role in Talks

A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said today that Moscow would be a logical inclusion in multilateral talks on the nuclear standoff.

“We favor a formula that would bring results,” Alexander Yakovenko said.  “If the formula were opened out, Russian participation would be logical,” he added (Agence France-Presse, July 18).

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Russia:  Naval Official Denied Submarines Stopped Patrolling

Contrary to U.S. reports, Russian Navy officials said they never suspended worldwide nuclear submarine patrols, ITAR-Tass reported Wednesday (see GSN, July 1).

“In reality, the Navy has stepped up its activities this year because we have received sufficient funding for combat training,” said Capt. Igor Dygalo, an aide to the Russian Navy’s top ranking official  (see GSN, July 8; ITAR-Tass/CDI Russia Weekly, July 14).

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U.S.-Russia II:  Future Arms Control Treaties Are Unlikely, U.S. Officials Says

The U.S. ambassador to Russia has said the United States and Russia may no longer need to create arms control treaties to further reduce their nuclear arsenals, ITAR-Tass reported Wednesday (see GSN, May 16, 2002).

Treaties calling for cuts beyond the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty may no longer be needed because of the changing relationship between the United States and Russia from adversaries to allies, Alexander Vershbow said, noting that the United States does not have similar treaties with allies such as the United Kingdom or France.

“I think with or without treaties, we will continue to share a common interest in reducing nuclear weapons to the lowest possible level consistent with our security, our security interests,” Vershbow said (ITAR-Tass/CDI Russia Weekly, July 17).

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United States:  U.S. Legislators Offer Mixed Signals on Bush Nuclear Program

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Members of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate yesterday advanced differing positions on Bush administration efforts to develop new nuclear weapons, with the House moving to maintain current limits on development and a Senate panel approving funding requests for new nuclear weapons.

The House, in its action, voted to uphold decade-old restrictions on the advanced development and production of low-yield nuclear weapons, co-authored by Representative John Spratt (D-S.C.). The restrictions ban the United States from adding new low-yield weapons to its nuclear arsenal by prohibiting all but basic research and development activities.

Yesterday’s vote reaffirmed an earlier House vote to partially repeal the ban by allowing research activities.  Some congressional staffers last week said they feared House Republicans would seek a total repeal in a House-Senate conference on the fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill (see GSN, July 9).  A Senate version of the bill, meanwhile, would effectively eliminate restrictions on all research and development, but would require further congressional authorization before “testing, acquisition or deployment.”

In a statement today, Spratt said the restrictions in the 1990s helped the United States persuade other countries to give up nuclear weapons and to permanently extend the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1995.

“I would not like to see us backtrack on these achievements, and I hope that the House’s position will prevail in conference with the Senate,” he said.

The fate of that and other contentious Bush administration nuclear weapons proposals remains unresolved, however, with various pieces of major legislation this year differing in their House and Senate versions (see GSN, July 16).

Instructions for Negotiation

With the voice vote yesterday, the House instructed its conferees to insist on maintaining the language the House has already passed during the House-Senate 2004 defense authorization bill conference.

While the instructions are not binding, experts say it would be unlikely that they would be disregarded by the senior House conferees, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Ind.) and senior committee Democrat  Ike Skelton (Mo.).

Hunter yesterday said he would not urge opposition to the motion to instruct, but the outcome of the conference remains uncertain.

“The House approach is better than the Senate’s because it’s a clear statement of U.S. policy against development of tactical nukes, and contains a stronger guarantee that the Congress will be an equal partner in any decision to move beyond research,” Spratt said.

“We authorized research but retained the prohibition on development activities that could lead to the production of a destabilizing and unnecessary new low-yield nuclear weapon,” said Skelton.

Question Persists on Funding

Meanwhile, key House and the Senate appropriations committees appear to differ over funding the mini-nuke and other Bush administration nuclear weapons priorities its fiscal 2004 Energy Department appropriations request.

The Senate Appropriations Committee today approved in full the administration’s funding request for work on low-yield weapons in 2004 ($6 million), research on a modified nuclear weapon intended for earth penetration ($15 million) and activities to reduce the preparation time for resuming nuclear testing ($25 million).

The House Appropriations Committee this week, however, voted not to fund nearly all those programs, saying in a report the administration needed to provide better justifications for the requests.

Debate Over Implications

In a markup session yesterday, the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development debated the potential implications of lifting the ban on research and development of low-yield nuclear weapons.

Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) charged, “This bill launches a new generation of nuclear weapons … that will make this nation less safe in the future, not more safe.”

Subcommittee chairman Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) disagreed, and said the funding would ease restrictions on the freedom of U.S. nuclear scientists.

“If you vote for this you will not be voting for a new generation of nuclear weapons.  That I can assure you,” he said.

“We’re talking about whether or not we’re going to let our scientists have new ideas and new thoughts or whether we’re going to try from the outside to put some kind of parameters around their thinking,” he said.

Feinstein said the administration’s Nuclear Posture Review indicated a goal to develop a new generation of nuclear weapons.

“The fact of the matter is the administration has decided to take concrete steps for creating new classes of nuclear weapons and the wheels are beginning to grind to develop a new generation of nuclear weapons,” she said.

“The administration seems to be moving toward a military posture where nuclear weapons are just like other weapons,” she said.

A formal White House policy statement on the defense authorization bill said eliminating research and development restrictions was needed to address new threats.

“Maintaining the prohibition on development will hinder the ability of our scientists and engineers to explore technical options to deter national security threats of the 21st century,” it says.

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North Korea:  China Says North Korea Open to Multilateral Talks

Chinese officials have told the United States that North Korea is willing to agree to multilateral talks to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 16).

Beijing said, however, that the United States must agree to three-nation talks, excluding South Korea and Japan.  U.S. officials said, however, they would continue to push for the inclusion of Seoul and Tokyo.

“We think five is the right formula and will keep pressing for that,” said one senior State Department official (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, July 17), but Undersecretary of State John Bolton told Japanese reporters, “If there is a way to start at three and go to five, we are open to suggestions on it” (Japan Times, July 17).

China now appears to be bringing its substantial influence to bear in an effort to force talks on the nuclear standoff.

“China is moving.  They are working on it,” said a South Korea official.  “If North Korea rejects dialogue now, China will be unhappy,” he said (Kessler, Washington Post).

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing reportedly told U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell of the possible breakthrough during a telephone call Tuesday (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 17).

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the process should move forward relatively soon.

“So the diplomatic track is alive and well and I expect to see some developments along that track in the very near future,” he said (Harry Murphy, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 16).

Troops Fire Across DMZ

Meanwhile, Seoul said North Korean soldiers opened fire on a South Korean position yesterday.  South Korean soldiers returned fire a minute later, according to the officials.

“Everything that they have done on the DMZ over the course of the past few years has been done with a particular purpose,” said Korea expert Scott Snyder of the Asia Foundation.  “The North Koreans have continued to look for ways to remind the United States that it is out there and that they can do damage as a way of trying to draw attention,” he added (Eckert/Jung-hwa, Reuters, July 17).

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Iran:  Moscow, Tehran Could Sign Spent Fuel Agreement By End of Month

Tehran and Moscow could sign an agreement by the end of the month on the return of spent nuclear fuel from the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran to Russia, Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev said yesterday (see GSN, July 3).

Environmental experts have completed their examination of the agreement, which has cleared the way for Russia and Iran to sign, Rumyantsev said.  “For a long time the Iranian side has had no objections to the signing,” he said (Daily Star, July 17).

Russia will supply the first 11 deliveries of 500 kilograms each of fuel for the Bushehr reactor to Iran via cargo jet after the agreement is signed, Rumyantsev said.  The first fuel shipments would likely be loaded into the reactor in mid-2004, he said (Xinhua News Agency, July 17).

Iranian Defense Strategy Does Not Include Nuclear Weapons, Khatami Says

Meanwhile, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami has said that Iran’s defense strategy does not include nuclear weapons (see GSN, July 16).

“I frankly say that there is absolutely no place in Iran’s defense strategy to acquire nuclear arms,” Khatami said.  “We are, in fact, asking the world and the region to get rid of such weapons,” he said.

Instead, Iran is seeking nuclear technology for peaceful uses, Khatami said, denying that its civilian nuclear program was a cover for military activities.

“Acquiring nuclear technology does not mean having nuclear arms,” Khatami said.  “What Iran has obtained through its own capabilities ... is an introduction to peaceful nuclear technology,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 16). 

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CTBT:  Algeria Ratifies Treaty

Algeria ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty July 11, bringing the total number of treaty ratifiers to 103, according to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (see GSN, June 25).

Algeria is one of the 44 nations that must ratify the treaty before it can enter into force.  Of those 44 nations, 32 have ratified the treaty (CTBT Organization release, July 17).

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United States:  Cutting Nuclear Research, House Appropriators Demand Better Planning

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — In approving the $27 billion Energy Department appropriations bill yesterday, the Republican-controlled House Appropriations Committee voted to significantly cut Bush administration fiscal 2004 funding requests for new nuclear warhead activities and increased testing readiness.  The lawmakers demanded that the administration provide more detailed national security justifications if it wanted to receive the funds (see GSN, July 15).

The committee also criticized the administration for not producing a detailed plan to change the current nuclear arsenal, saying in committee report released yesterday that the U.S. arsenal was “built to fight the now defunct Soviet Union.”

The House appropriators cut all $6 million requested for research and development through the Advanced Concepts Initiative, under which new, low-yield nuclear weapons would be researched.

In addition, the committee reduced funding for researching modifications to an existing nuclear earth-penetrating nuclear weapon, the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, by $10 million from the requested $15 million.  Both the House and Senate earlier this year authorized spending on it up to $15 million in bills yet to be finalized.

Yesterday’s cuts, contained in the House Energy and Water Development Appropriations bill marked up by the committee, contrast with largely enthusiastic support for the administration plans in the House and Senate Armed Services committees.  Both the House and Senate have passed bills that would authorize full spending on the programs (see GSN, July 9).  Senate appropriators are scheduled to act on the bill tomorrow.

The funding cuts would be made, the committee report says, “in favor of higher priority current mission requirements.”

Testing Readiness Cut

The committee also cut the entire $24 million request to shorten the time needed to prepare for a nuclear weapons test.  The committee report says the administration must provide a “better definition of the national security requirement.”

The report says the proposal “reflects a disturbing ‘cost-is-no-object’ perspective in the [Energy] Department’s decision-making process.”

The administration is seeking funding for reducing the lead-time from an estimated 24 to 36 months down to 18 months.

“The committee is concerned with the open-ended commitment to increase significantly funding for the purpose of Enhanced Test Readiness without any budget analysis or program plan to evaluate the efficiency or effectiveness of this funding increase,” the report says.

The administration also needs to provide better justifications of its nuclear weapons stockpile requirements, the report says.

“The committee is concerned the NNSA [the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration] is being tasked to start new activities with significant outyear budget impacts before the administration has articulated the specific requirements to support the president’s announced stockpile modification,” it said.

Looking for Money

John Isaacs, president of the Council for a Livable World, an arms control lobbying organization, attributed the cuts to something else altogether.

“My understanding is the committee is looking for money for water projects, which the White House cut by $300 million, and this is how they got it,” he said.

The committee targeted cuts to the administration’s nuclear weapons priorities, Isaacs said, because unlike developing national missile defenses they have not been “an article of faith of the Republican party.”

“It means they were more vulnerable when looking for money,” he said.

Overall, the committee increased funding for NNSA, which oversees Energy Department nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs, by $330.1 million more than fiscal 2003 levels to $8.5 billion for 2004.  That is, however, $326.4 million less than the administration had requested.

Budget Process Called Flawed

The committee report says the U.S. nuclear weapons program has not been forced to make the difficult cost-benefit trade-offs other programs make.  It says the current process for deciding requirements and shaping the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal is “flawed” because the Pentagon sets requirements while Energy is required to fund them.

When Defense “develops their requirements,” the committee report says, “their decision process is not constrained by the normal types of budget trade-offs that an agency confronts in the process of formulating a budget request.”

 The report calls for a “serious debate about whether the approximately $6 billion spent annually on DOE’s nuclear weapons complex is a sound national security investment.”

“If these costs were funded directly by the DOD, the nuclear weapons activities would be considered against other national defense priorities, such as developing improved conventional weapons, procuring more existing weapons systems, paying ever increasing operational and training costs, and providing a better quality of life for our sailors, soldier and airmen,” it says.

The committee report says the Bush administration is asking too much of the NNSA at this time.

“It appears to the committee the [Energy] Department is proposing to rebuild, restart, and redo and otherwise exercise every capability that was used over the past 40 years of the Cold War and at the same time prepare for a future with an expanded mission for nuclear weapons,” it said.

The committee said it would not “support redirecting the [NNSA’s] management resources and attention to a series of new initiatives” until it could demonstrate it is successfully meeting its primary mission, “maintaining the safety, security and viability of the existing stockpile” (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2002).

Reporting Faulted

The committee faulted the Bush administration for not delivering a committee-requested report providing specific plans to reduce the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal in accordance with the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which took effect last month (see GSN, June 2). 

A Defense official recently told Global Security Newswire the administration was planning to begin “retire” some of the planned downloaded warheads beginning in 2006, but said “dismantlement plans are not yet finalized.”

The official added, “Other warheads removed from missiles and bombers will be maintained in a nondeployed status as a hedge against unforeseen technical or international events.”

The appropriators yesterday said that lacking specific new plans for the future structure of the stockpile, NNSA continues to budget for maintaining active and inactive strategic nuclear warheads at START I levels.

“The National Nuclear Security Administration has not been able to reconcile the recently announced dramatic reductions planned for deployed operational nuclear warheads to its strategic weapons modernization plans, some of which will cost billions of dollars each, and which are currently structured to upgrade the maximum number of warheads,” the committee report says.

“NNSA is forced, through inertia and indecision, to maintain all contingencies regardless of how unlikely the threat,” the report says.

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North Korea:  China Pushes for Multilateral Talks

China has proposed a plan to begin multilateral negotiations among the United States, North Korea and other Northeast Asian countries, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 15).

“Right now it is critical to continue the process of the talks,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said.

“It is of critical importance to the peace, stability and development of the East Asian and Asian region,” Kong added.

Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo returned from Pyongyang yesterday after delivering the details of the plan in a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.  The multilateral meetings would include sideline talks between Washington and Pyongyang, potentially satisfying North Korea’s desire for direct contact with U.S. officials.

“China has been very clear that it remains open and flexible on the participants and the formalities of the talks,” Kong said (Joseph Kahn, New York Times, July 16).

North Korea reportedly told the United States it would agree to multilateral talks if Washington promises not to undermine the Pyongyang leadership.

“We would be ready to accept five-nation talks if a promise was made to guarantee (the survival of) the regime,” a North Korean diplomat said, according to a Japanese newspaper (Reuters, July 16).

The White House meanwhile said it could not confirm North Korean claims to have reprocessed all of its 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, a key step toward building a nuclear weapon.  Some senior officials said North Korea might be bluffing.

“The point is, they’re not going to spook us,” an official said.  “They’ve got to understand that they don’t get anywhere just by trying to up the level of blackmail,” the officials added (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, July 16).

The U.S. Defense Department, meanwhile, said it is taking North Korea’s comments seriously.

“When they told us they had nuclear weapons, they meant it,” Lawrence Di Rita, an aide to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, said.  “Certainly what they’ve told us in the past has been worth paying attention to,” he added (Associated Press/Newsday, July 16).

The White House is also considering allowing thousands of North Korean refugees to emigrate to the United States as a means of increasing the pressure on Pyongyang.

Such a move would most likely increase attempts at emigration from North Korea.  Refugees mostly escape into China, which usually repatriates them, and encouraging more emigration could cause trouble with Beijing, the Washington Post reported.

“The Chinese will be enraged by this,” an official said (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, July 16).

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Iran:  Tehran Willing to Sign Protocol After Rights Are Clarified

Iran has indicated that it may be willing to sign the Additional Protocol to its international nuclear safeguards agreement, which would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct intrusive inspections of Tehran’s nuclear activities, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, July 15).

During a visit to Moscow, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Galiamali Khosru said that Iran and the IAEA must understand their specific rights before the agreement is signed.

“We favor signing the protocol but we believe that the rights of Iran and the IAEA must be clarified,” Khosru said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 15).

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North Korea:  Pyongyang Says It Plans to Assemble Nuclear Weapons Soon

North Korean officials last week told the United States that North Korea has reprocessed enough uranium to build a half-dozen nuclear weapons and that it intends to take that step soon, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 14).

U.S. intelligence agencies are now trying to determine if Pyongyang is telling the truth.

“It’s the mirror image of the Iraq problem,” said one U.S. official.  “We spent years looking for evidence Iraq was lying when it said it didn’t have a nuclear program.  Now North Korea says it’s about to go nuclear, and everyone is trying to figure out whether they’ve finally done it, or if it’s the big lie,” the official added (David Sanger, New York Times, July 15).

Some experts have expressed doubts about the nuclear claims.

“It could be done if (the North Koreans) used shortcuts and wanted to risk (nuclear) contamination,” said a former U.N. weapons inspector who has visited North Korea (Stewart Stogel, Washington Times, July 15).

A U.S. envoy met in New York with North Korean U.N. representative Park Gil Yon last week, according to a State Department official.  The official would not comment, however, on the nature of their discussions (Agence France-Presse, July 15).

Naval Blockade Is War, Pyongyang Says

North Korea, meanwhile, said that a proposed naval blockade of the communist country would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

“If the United States expands the sea blockade to include international waters, it would become a prelude to war,” said the state-run North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun (Yonhap News Agency/Korea Times, July 15).

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, however, dismissed the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack.  Self-proclaimed North Korean spokesman Kim Myong Chol said Australia might be attacked if it takes part in the effort to interdict North Korean ships.

“If Australia becomes part of American manipulation against North Korea, North Korea reserves the right to strike back on Australia — that is the official North Korean position,” Kim said.

However, Downer said North Korea does not have the capability to hit Australia with nuclear missiles.

“We don’t believe for a minute North Korea would launch some kind of nuclear attack against Australia, or have the capacity to fire nuclear missiles that sort of distance.  That’s if they have the capacity to fire nuclear missiles at all,” he said (Jack Taylor, Agence France-Presse, July 15).

Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, meanwhile, warned that the Korean crisis is drifting toward war.  Six months ago, Perry said the situation was manageable, but it has deteriorated since then, he said.

“I think we are losing control,” Perry said.  “I have held off public criticism to this point because I had hoped that the administration was going to act on this problem, and that public criticism might be counterproductive.  But time is running out, and each month the problem gets more dangerous,” he added (Ricks/Kessler, Washington Post, July 15).

China Reaches Out to North Korea

Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il Monday, the Associated Press reported.

The two “had an in-depth exchanges of views on the nuclear issue between (North Korea) and the U.S. and international issues of mutual concern,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency said (Jae-suk Yoo, Associated Press/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, July 15).

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Iran:  Tehran Wants Talks But Washington Is Not Listening

Iranian officials are attempting to open negotiations with the United States over Tehran’s alleged nuclear development, but Washington is not interested, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, July 11).

“We are not reaching out at this point,” said a State Department official.

Tim Guldimann, the Swiss ambassador to Iran, also conveyed the message that Tehran wanted to talk.  Switzerland represents U.S. interests in Tehran (Guy Dinmore, Financial Times, July 15).

Mohammad Zarif, Iran’s U.N. ambassador, has been meeting with U.S. officials in an attempt to arrange talks.  Zarif has reportedly indicated that Iran would consider signing the Additional Protocol, which would open up its nuclear activities to closer International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, in exchange for direct talks.

Daniel Ayalon, the Israeli ambassador to Washington, last week said that Iran might be close to developing a nuclear weapon.

“The point of no return — where they are on the verge or on the way to get nuclear capabilities — is much, much smaller now, could be even a matter of a year or so,” Ayalon said (Guy Dinmore, Financial Times II, July 15).

European diplomats, meanwhile, are becoming frustrated by their offers of trade agreements to Tehran in exchange for negotiating concessions.

“There is a degree of major frustration.  There is a chink of light on the nuclear issue, total immobility on human rights, some movement but not much on terrorism and nothing at all on the Middle East peace process,” said a European ambassador in Tehran.

The European Union is demanding that Iran sign the Additional Protocol, or lose a trade deal with Europe.

“Iran claims to have peaceful intentions but that doesn’t mean a thing,” German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said earlier this month (Stefan Smith, Pakistan Dawn, July 15).

Japan Says Oil Not Linked to Nuclear Issue

In talks that begin this weekend, Tokyo will not combine the nuclear issue and the potential development of an Iranian oil field by Japanese companies, Asahi Shimbun reported today.

Yukiya Amano, the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s director general for arms control and scientific affairs, is expected to tell Iranian officials that Japan is not waiting for Iran to sign the Additional Protocol before Japanese companies develop the oil field.  U.S. officials have been pressuring Japan to hold off on the oil work while the nuclear issue remains unresolved (Asahi Shimbun, July 15).

Tehran Holding Al-Qaeda Members

Iran reportedly is holding several al-Qaeda members, including spokesman Sulaiman abu Ghaith, a senior Iranian official said this weekend.

U.S. officials have not publicly confirmed the report.

“We did have knowledge of a number of al-Qaeda people in Iran under some circumstance, rumors of them being taken into some kind of custody, the nature of which is unclear,” said a U.S. official (Azadeh Moaveni, Los Angeles Times, July 15).

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United States:  House Subcommittee Cuts New Nuclear Weapons Funding

A Republican-led House appropriations subcommittee rejected a $50 million White House request to study the development of new nuclear weapons, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 9).

Representative David Hobson (R-Ohio), chairman of the Energy and Water Development Subcommittee, said the Energy Department needed to focus on maintaining the existing U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile.

“Before we go blindly into new areas, we have to think about where we are and what we are doing with what we’ve got,” Hobson said.  “I did what I thought was the responsible thing to do, and my committee concurred,” he added.

U.S. officials said they would fight to reinstate the funding before the spending bill becomes law.  The $50 million could be reinstated by the full committee.

“I am disappointed they were reduced or eliminated and hope that when the final appropriations bill comes forward that the Congress will support the president on this,” said Linton Brooks, chief of the National Nuclear Security Administration.  “I think it’s important,” he added.

Democratic senators, who opposed the new nuclear research, supported Hobson’s move and called for similar cutbacks in the Senate (Carl Hulse, New York Times, July 15).

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France:  Former Defense Official Urges France to Emphasize Space-Based Programs

Former French Defense Minister Paul Quiles yesterday said France should decrease spending on nuclear weapons programs and use the savings to lead the European Union toward a new emphasis on space-based defense programs.

In a commentary in Le Figaro, Quiles called for EU spending of more than $3 billion annually on military space programs, including a French contribution of more than $1 billion each year.  He said France could free up the funds by cutting about $500 million, or about 15 percent, from its annual nuclear weapons budget.

“The current efforts in nuclear dissuasion seem particularly excessive in light of developments in the strategic environment.  They rest on programs that were defined mainly during the Cold War, when France faced the threat of a massive invasion of its territory by an overarmed nuclear power,” Quiles wrote.

“The threats of today are completely different.  They no longer justify an effort that accounts for 10 percent of the defense budget (compared with 3 percent in the United Kingdom),” he continued.

Quiles deemed insufficient current French spending on military space technology, which he put at more than $450 million, and backed ramping up funds for intelligence and communications satellites.  Increases in space spending, added Quiles, would encourage cooperation among EU countries on defense — made necessary by the recent conduct of the United States in the international arena, according to Quiles — and enable them to “accede to autonomy, that is, to freedom in evaluating risks and threats.”

“The same need for strategic autonomy should also lead Europe to develop an advance warning system allowing it [Europe] to detect the propulsive phase of ballistic missile strikes. … The military space program is also necessary to give Europe the broadband data transmission ability that is now required for carrying out integrated, real-time operations in remote theaters,” he said (Paul Quiles, Le Figaro, July 14, GSN translation).

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U.S. Response:  NNSA Lacks Airlift Capability for Nuclear Response Team

A recent report by the U.S. Energy Department’s inspector general says the National Nuclear Security Administration needs more aircraft to enable it to react quickly to a possible terrorist attack involving nuclear weapons, Energy Daily reported today (see GSN, July 9).

According to the report, the NNSA does not always have enough aircraft available to transport its Joint Technical Operation Team (JTOT) in the event of a nuclear attack.  In addition, the agency does not have contingency plans in place if its own aircraft are unavailable, the report says.

Currently, the NNSA has four aircraft available for use — a Gulfstream 3 long-range, high-speed jet; two Boeing DC-9 airliners; and a Lear jet, according to Energy Daily.  The report found, however, that the NNSA’s contract with the Gulfstream’s operator did not require that the plane be maintained on a permanent stand-by basis.  In addition, the Gulfstream 3 was also found to have been used for other purposes, it says.

The Lear jet is not an adequate substitute because of its limited range and smaller size, the report says.  It also says that the two DC-9 airliners are not capable of transporting JTOT personnel and equipment “to all possible incident sites.”

The Energy Department has also “not developed formal contingency plans” for the use of other aircraft, either civilian or military, in the event the NNSA aircraft were unavailable, according to the report.

“Based on these findings, we are concerned that JTOT personnel may not be able to respond as rapidly and effectively as necessary to address a potential terrorist incident,” Energy Inspector General Gregory Friedman said in the report.  “Specifically, given the national importance of the JTOT mission and the necessity of timely arrival of JTOT personnel and equipment at an incident site, uncertainties relating to aircraft capability are unacceptable,” he said (Nathan Hodge, Energy Daily, July 15).

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North Korea:  North Korea Reprocessing Fuel Rods, U.S. Official Says

The United States believes North Korea has recently begun reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods, a key first step toward building nuclear weapons, the Japan Times reported yesterday (see GSN, July 11).

U.S. intelligence agencies have analyzed air samples and detected krypton 85, a byproduct of reprocessing, according to a U.S. official.

The new intelligence was sent to the White House Thursday, according to a television report (Japan Times, July 13).

During informal talks in New York, North Korean representatives told U.S. diplomats that they have completed reprocessing the spent fuel rods, according to former South Korean lawmaker Chang Sung-min (Korea Herald, July 14).

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun’s foreign policy adviser said, however, that there is “no scientific evidence” that North Korea has reprocessed fuel rods.

“We’re not at the stage of being able to confirm anything,” said Ban Ki-moon (Paul Eckert, Reuters, July 14).

South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan agreed that there was no conclusive evidence of reprocessing.

“There have been no scientific data and evidence to confirm North Korea has finished reprocessing spent fuel rods,” Yoon said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 14).

North and South Korea, meanwhile, agreed to hold “appropriate” talks to defuse the nuclear crisis.  The decision came at the end of ministerial meetings, which wrapped up Saturday.

“South and North Korea will resolve the nuclear issue peacefully through appropriate dialogue,” according to a joint statement (Kim So-young, Korea Herald, July 14).

Pentagon Plan “Provocative”

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered U.S. military leaders to draw up plans for another war on the Korean Peninsula, but some officials are saying the plan itself could push Pyongyang toward conflict, U.S. News & World Report reported.

The plan is being developed by Adm. Thomas Fargo, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, and senior Pentagon officials.

“Some of the things (Fargo) is being asked to do are, shall we say, provocative,” a senior U.S. official said.

“Plan 5030” includes maneuvers that could drain North Korean resources and test its military, the magazine reported (Auster/Whitelaw, U.S. News & World Report, July 21).

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United States:  House Bill Would Bring 23 B-1 Bombers Back Into Service

The fiscal 2004 defense appropriations bill approved last week by the U.S. House of Representatives includes $20 million to return more than 20 retired B-1 nuclear-capable bombers back to active service, the Abilene Reporter-News reported Friday (see GSN, June 2).

The $20 million included in the House bill would bring 23 out of 32 retired B-1s back into active service.  In 2001, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld reduced the U.S. B-1 fleet of 93 bombers by a third because of cost concerns, according to the Reporter-News.  The House bill also includes $97 million to purchase parts for the B-1 fleet and more than $88 million for research and development.

The Senate version of the bill, which is expected to be considered within a week, does not contain the $20 million to reactivate retired B-1 bombers, but instead contains $100 million for parts and more than $88 million for research and development, according to the Reporter-News.  Senators Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-Texas) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) are considering whether reactivating the retired bombers is viable, where the $20 million in funding would come from and whether that amount is enough, spokespeople for the senators said.

While the $20 million is enough to fund the retired bombers for a year, more funding would be needed to cover maintenance and personnel costs, said Bill Ehrie, retired commander of Dyess Air Fore Base in Texas, which has 32 active B-1s (Tara Copp, Abilene Reporter-News, July 11).

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