Threat Assessment:  Bush Warns of “Real” Al-Qaeda Threat

U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that the United States is facing genuine terrorist threats from the al-Qaeda terrorist network, warning that terrorists might attempt to hijack airplanes in a Sept. 11-style attack (see GSN, July 29).

“The threat is a real threat,” Bush said.  “We don’t know when, where, what.  But we do know a couple of things.  We know that al-Qaeda tends to use methodologies that worked in the past,” he added.

Washington recently issued a security advisory to airlines.

“We’re focusing on the airline industry right now, and we’ve got reason to do so,” Bush said.  “But I’m confident that we will thwart the attempts,” he added.

U.S. officials were not convinced, however, that the current threat is credible.

“If we were certain this was real, I think you’d see us raise the alert level, as we’ve done in the past,” a senior law enforcement official said.  “We’re not at that point yet.  This could be more disinformation,” the official added.

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said that his department was putting extra resources toward safeguarding the nation’s airlines (Philip Shenon, New York Times, July 31).

The information that led to the airline warning came from Ali Abd al-Rahman al Faqasi al-Ghamdi, an al-Qaeda operative who planned suicide bombings in Saudi Arabia and is currently being held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, CNN.com reported (CNN.com, July 31).

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U.S. Response:  Pentagon Cancels Online Futures Market Project

The U.S. Defense Department yesterday canceled a plan to create an online futures trading market that would have allowed people to speculate on the likelihood of various types of terrorist activities, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, July 29).

Tony Tether, director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which was overseeing the project, said in a statement that “it simply did not make sense to continue” the project “in light of the recent concerns surrounding” it.

The project, called the Policy Analysis Market, would have allowed people to deposit funds into accounts and then win or lose money by predicting various crises, such as a North Korean missile attack, in an attempt to anticipate events.  The initial registration of up to 1,000 participants was set to begin Friday, with trading to have begun Oct. 1, according to the Post.

The determination to cancel the program was echoed by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who told a Senate hearing that he had first learned of the project by reading the newspaper.

“I share your shock at this kind of program,” Wolfowitz said.  “We’ll find out about it, but it is being terminated,” he said.

Wolfowitz also sought to defend DARPA, saying it “is brilliantly imaginative in places where we want them to be imaginative.”

“It sounds like maybe they got too imaginative in this area,” Wolfowitz added.

Wolfowitz’s comments resulted in harsh words from Senator Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), according to the Post.

“I don’t think we can laugh off that DARPA program,” Boxer said.  “There is something very sick about it.  And if it’s going to end, I think you would end the careers of whoever it was who thought that up,” she added (Graham/Loeb, Washington Post, July 30).

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International Response:  Security Council Committee Urges Greater Compliance With Counterterrorism Measures

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

UNITED NATIONS — The chairman of a U.N. Security Council sanctions committee said yesterday that while progress has been made to ensure that al-Qaeda and the Taliban cannot operate in various countries’ territory, some nations — including those where the two groups are likely to be operating — have not met their counterterrorism obligations (see GSN, Feb. 21).

Ambassador Heraldo Munoz of Chile, the chairman of the committee monitoring the sanctions against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, told the council, “Recognition of the possible presence of al-Qaeda or those associated with the network within its territory appears to be a stigma to some states.  Consequently, detailed information concerning the activities of al-Qaeda … is not being presented to the committee.”

Resolution 1267 of October 1999 imposed sanctions on Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda for their alleged roles in terrorist acts, including the bombing of U.S. embassies in East Africa, and on the Taliban for harboring al-Qaeda.  Countries are supposed to enforce a travel ban, a freeze on financial assets and an arms embargo against individuals and groups on a council list of suspected members of the two groups.  Munoz chairs the council’s committee that monitors compliance with 1267 and Resolution 1455, adopted in January 2003, which tightened the sanctions on the two groups.

Resolution 1455 requires countries to submit reports on the implementation of the sanctions.  However, only 64 countries — “barely 30 percent of the membership of the United Nations” — have submitted those reports, Munoz said.  “Individuals or entities associated with al-Qaeda are believed to be active in some way in a significant number of the states that have not yet submitted a report,” he added.

He did not name the countries he was referring to.  The council’s tally of submissions show that Afghanistan and some neighboring countries, as well as other countries where the al-Qaeda may be operating, including Indonesia, have not submitted reports.  However other countries where the network may be present, including Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Pakistan, have submitted reports.

U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte said, “We emphasize that states unwilling to implement their obligations, whatever the reason, must be encouraged and, if necessary, pressured to do more.  The international community cannot allow intransigence by some to be the weak link that undermines our shared counterterrorism efforts.”

Munoz added that “if there are significant absences in the reporting” on implementing sanctions, then “the committee will have no choice but to reflect this reality as it prepares its year-end” report to the council.

A primary tool in combating al-Qaeda — interrupting its finances — is proving to be difficult, Munoz said.  “Al-Qaeda has a built-in resilience and flexibility, which is contributing to its survival as a global network,” he said.  “This, in turn, encourages support of the network among elements of the population in many countries, producing sympathy for the ideology, new recruits to the movement and funding.”  Informal banking systems and the use of charities and aid groups as conduits for illegal funds continues, he said, therefore “states must be encouraged to ensure effective measures are put in place to stop such humanitarian activities from being, in any way, abused by al-Qaeda operatives.”

Munoz, as well as the ambassadors of Colombia and India, linked terrorist financing to the illicit drug trade, saying there is ample evidence of drug trafficking around the world financing a variety of terrorist organizations.  Mu¤oz said that “funds may easily get to the al-Qaeda network” through the Afghan opium trade.

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U.S. Response I:  Pentagon Creates Online Futures Trading Market to Predict Terrorist Activities

The U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is establishing an online futures trading market that would allow people to wager on the likelihood of various types of terrorist activities, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, July 28).

The program, called the Policy Analysis Market, would allow people to deposit funds into accounts — similar to those used in stock trading — and then win or lose money by predicting various events, such as a coup in Jordan, according to the Times.  The market will focus on the economic, military and civil futures of eight Middle Eastern nations, including Iran, Iraq and Israel, as well as the results of U.S. interactions with those nations.  The program is set to begin registering an initial 1,000 participants Friday with trading to begin Oct. 1.  The number of participants could possibly grow to 10,000 by Jan. 1, the Times reported.

“Involvement in this group-prediction process should prove engaging and may prove profitable,” the market’s Web site said.

The Pentagon has said that similar futures trading projects have been able to predict events such as oil prices and elections.

“Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information,” the Pentagon said in a statement.  “Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions,” the department said (Carl Hulse, New York Times, July 29).

More than $800,000 has been spent to establish the market, according to the Washington Times.

However, congressional critics of the program have called on John Poindexter, director of the Total Information Awareness office, which will oversee the program, to shut it down, saying that gambling on future terrorist attacks is “grotesque.”

“The federal government is encouraging people to bet on and make money from atrocities and terrorist attacks,” Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said during a press conference to disclose the program.  “Betting on terrorism is morally wrong,” he said.

“It’s a harebrained scheme,” said Senator Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.).  “I think this is an unbelievably stupid program that is so devoid of value.  It is offensive to almost everyone,” he said (Audrey Hudson, Washington Times, July 29).

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U.S. Response II:  GAO Says Port Security Needs Long-Term Plan

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — As part of its efforts to enhance security at U.S. shipping terminals, the Homeland Security Department must increase the number of well-trained port security officials, a task that could prove difficult without advanced strategic planning, the General Accounting Office said in a report yesterday (see GSN, June 17).

The Bureau of Customs and Border Protection — part of the Homeland Security Department — has not yet managed a smooth transition in port security efforts from “short-term focus to a long-term strategic approach,” according to the GAO report.  The GAO called for a comprehensive plan for developing a skilled port security workforce.

Last year, U.S. customs officials launched the Container Security Initiative, which posted agents in foreign ports to screen high-risk shipments for weapons of mass destruction before they departed for the United States.  Under the CSI program, more than 10 nations have agreed to participate in the program, according to the Customs and Border Control Web site (see GSN, July 23).

More than 1,700 companies also agreed to join the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT), under which firms improve their own security in exchange for smoother access to U.S. ports.

Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) applauded the GAO findings and said port security relies on well-trained customs officials.

“The success of these programs, and our trust in them, depends largely on the quality, training, oversight, and retention, of the people on the ground who administer them.  Going forward, we have to have a good roadmap in place.  It’s that simple,” he said in a statement.

The GAO called for customs officials to develop “human capital plans that clearly describe how CSI and C-TPAT will recruit, train and retain staff to meet their growing demands as they expand to other countries and implement new program elements.”

The plan also called on the Homeland Security Department to develop benchmarks for the two programs to measure their progress.

“The measures should be used to determine the future direction of these Customs programs,” the report says.

In addition, the GAO said that Homeland Security officials should build strategic plans to identify the programs’ goals and reach them.

The Customs and Border Protection bureau agreed with the GAO report and said it was already addressing the problems.

“The Office of International Affairs has initiated action to develop a program to recruit, train and retain the staff necessary to effectively and efficiently carry out the mission of the CSI,” the bureau said in a statement.

Grassley said he was encouraged by the fact that customs officials agreed with the GAO assessment.

“The additional steps identified in the GAO report are crucial to the successful management and long-term success and oversight of these programs,” he said.

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Threat Assessment:  Officials Warn of New Hijacking Attacks

Al-Qaeda is believed to be preparing to conduct a new round of attacks using hijacked airliners later this summer, U.S. officials said yesterday (see GSN, July 10).

Officials have learned of the suspected plot through interrogations of one or more captured senior al-Qaeda operatives, according to the Washington Post.  Information received from al-Qaeda operatives has been corroborated through other methods, such as electronic intercepts, officials said.

“The U.S. intelligence community has received information related to al-Qaeda’s continued interest in using commercial aviation here in the United States and abroad to further their cause,” Homeland Security Department spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Homeland Security issued an alert with the new information to law enforcement agencies, security officials and airlines over the weekend, Johndroe said.  There are no immediate plans, however, to raise the U.S. national terrorism alert level, which currently stands at “yellow,” indicating an elevated risk, Homeland Security officials said (Susan Schmidt, Washington Post, July 29).

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U.S. Response:  “Murky” Intelligence Can Be Basis for Action, Wolfowitz Says

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz defended yesterday the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq, arguing that the government must be able to act on “murky” intelligence when necessary (see GSN, July 25).

No conclusive evidence has yet been found to support the frequent Bush administration claims about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and links to terrorism.  The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, however, demonstrated a need to act on the basis of “murky” information to prevent future attacks, he said.

“The nature of terrorism is that intelligence about terrorism is murky,” Wolfowitz said on Fox News Sunday.  “I think the lesson of 9/11 is that if you’re not prepared to act on the basis of murky intelligence, then you’re going to have to act after the fact, and after the fact now means after horrendous things have happened to this country,” he said (Anton Ferreira, Reuters/Philadelphia Inquirer, July 28).

U.S. Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) yesterday criticized Wolfowitz’s use of the word “murky” to describe prewar U.S. intelligence on Iraq.

“Boy, it sure didn’t sound murky before the war,” Levin said on CBS’s Face the Nation.  “There were clear connections, we were told, between al-Qaeda and Iraq.  There was no murkiness, no nuance, no uncertainty about it at all. ...  That’s the way it was presented to the American people,” he said (William Mann, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 28).

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U.S. Response I:  Energy Department Lifts Moratorium on Nuclear Waste Shipments

The U.S. Energy Department has a lifted a moratorium on nuclear waste shipments that was imposed after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 26).

Energy officials would not provide details about when shipments occur or what routes are used, except to local officials participating in shipment security arrangements.  New security requirements were imposed last year on nuclear plants shipping waste, including increased communications and shipment escort and monitoring provisions, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokeswoman Sue Gagner said (Tom Ramstack, Washington Times, July 25).

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U.S. Response II:  Lawmakers Offer New Proposal to Replace House Members Lost in Future Attack

Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday introduced a bill calling for rapid elections if a catastrophic attack on the U.S. Capitol killed more than 100 House members, according to the Washington Times (see GSN, June 4).

Under the bill, state political parties would have 21 days to choose nominees and hold a special election after the House speaker announced to loss of 100 or more representatives.  The bill was offered as an alternative to a recent think-tank proposal to modify the U.S. Constitution by allowing state governors to appoint House members after a catastrophic attack.  That proposal was made last month by a joint American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Institution commission.

“We alone, of all federal officials, have been directly elected by the people, never appointed,” said Representative David Dreier (R-Calif.), who helped draft the bill.  “I believe the Framers did this for a reason. ... We cannot let terrorists force us to change the structure they created for us,” he said (Amy Fagan, Washington Times, July 25). 

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