North Korea:  Pyongyang Says Kidnapping Issue Would Disrupt Talks

North Korea said yesterday that Japan could ruin talks aimed at resolving the nuclear crisis by bringing up the issue of kidnapped Japanese citizens (see GSN, Aug. 18).

Japan and North Korea stopped negotiations over renewing diplomatic ties last October after North Korea admitted kidnapping 13 Japanese civilians in the 1970s.  The talks on the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear standoff are scheduled to begin Aug. 27.

A Japanese effort to raise the issue “may create unnecessary complications” and “throw the discussion into confusion and divert its focus,” said the state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun.

During a visit to China yesterday, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said the talks would most likely go forward.

“North Korea is the issue of the day — the issue, really, of the year — in this part of the world.  We are moving in the right direction,” he said (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 19).

The United States is not insisting that the talks focus only on nuclear issues, according to State Department spokesman Richard Boucher.

Japanese officials “certainly have had and continue to have U.S. support in terms of dealing with the issue of abductions,” Boucher said.  “Whether it will come up directly in these discussions, I don’t know.  Whether the Japanese might raise it on the side or not, I don’t know.  But at this point I think we have to proceed to the discussions,” he added (State Department transcript, Aug. 19).

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Iran:  Tehran Continues Considering Additional Protocol

Iran is still considering signing the Additional Protocol to its nuclear safeguards agreement, which would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Tehran’s nuclear activities, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 18).

“Any decision will depend on the explanations given by the agency, on the ambiguities that exist (over the Additional Protocol), our responsibilities and those of the international community with regard to Iran,” said Hamid Reza Asefi.

Asefi also played down reports that the IAEA found evidence of uranium enrichment in Iran.  Diplomatic officials had indicated that environmental samples had detected uranium enrichment, but Asefi said judgment should be withheld until the IAEA releases its official report Sept. 8.

“It was not up to the diplomats to speak about such a technical and expert subject without knowing the details.  It is up to the agency to judge and to give its point of view.  We will wait until September,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Jordan Times, Aug. 19).

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China:  New U.S. System Will Search For Nuclear Submarines Near Japan

The U.S. Navy will begin testing a new submarine detection system this fall in the Sea of Japan, and the test will help develop technologies that could detect Chinese nuclear ballistic missile submarines (see GSN, Aug. 18).

The test of the Littoral Airborne Sensor Hyperspectral will ostensibly focus on finding friendly submarines, most likely from Japan, USA Today reported.  The system is designed to detect changes in underwater color patterns and color gradations.  Pentagon officials, however, are focused on Chinese and North Korean submarines as a serious threat, should a conflict erupt.  During the exercise, officials will be looking for those vessels, as well as the Japanese submarines.

“The subs can put special operations teams in place, they can target aircraft carriers, locate other targets, and with the Chinese nuclear (weapon) capability, there are different threat categories altogether,” said William Taylor, a retired Army colonel who was director of national security studies at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and has specialized in studying Korea.

China currently has one strategic missile submarine, which is mostly confined to port, according to USA Today.

The exercise, however, could provoke North Korea, some experts say.

“No matter what the U.S. military says, you are going to get an adverse reaction from the North Koreans,” said Charles Ferguson, who served as a Korea expert at the State Department from 2000 to 2002.  “I think the Pentagon is willing to live with that,” he added (Schwartz/Squitieri, USA Today, Aug. 19).

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Iran:  Tehran Claims Uranium Traces Not From Illicit Activity

Iranian officials have said enriched uranium reportedly found in environmental sampling by U.N. officials is a result of contamination and not illicit enrichment, Reuters reported today (see GSN, July 18).

After publicly denying the first reports of the enriched uranium discovery, Iranian officials have since told the International Atomic Energy Agency that the enriched uranium particles found at the Natanz centrifuge enrichment facility must have already been in equipment when it was imported, according to diplomats.

Iran is suspected of having tested its uranium enrichment centrifuges without notifying the IAEA, but Iranian officials have denied any such activity.

Diplomats said the Iranian explanation was possible, but they want the International Atomic Energy Agency to fully investigate the issue.

“We can’t be satisfied with excuses,” a Western diplomat said.  “We don’t expect the case to be closed at this point.  The pressure must continue on Iran to cooperate with the IAEA,” the diplomat added (Reuters/Jordan Times, Aug. 18).

Iranian officials are beginning initial studies for a third nuclear reactor with a 5,000-megawatt capacity, the Associated Press reported.  Iran and Russia are currently building a reactor at Bushehr, and Iranian leaders recently approved a second, 1,000-megawatt reactor (see GSN, Aug. 14; Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 14).

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North Korea I:  Pyongyang Says U.S. ‘Hostile Policy’ Prevents Disarmament

North Korea said today that it will not abandon its nuclear weapons program during multinational peace talks later this month unless the United States drops its “hostile policy” toward Pyongyang (see GSN, Aug. 15).

“If the U.S. does not express its will to make a switchover in its policy toward the D.P.R.K. the D.P.R.K. will have no option but to declare that it cannot dismantle its nuclear deterrent force at the talks,” the official state-run media outlet announced (Paul Eckert, Reuters/Boston Globe, Aug. 18).

A senior South Korean diplomat today said that Washington and Pyongyang could hold direct talks during the three-day multinational meetings in Beijing scheduled to begin Aug. 27.

“My understanding is that the United States has not ruled out North Korea-U.S. bilateral contact,” said Wi Sung-lac, director general of the South Korean Foreign Ministry’s North American affairs bureau.  “Nothing has been decided on what form such contact would take,” Wi added (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, Aug. 18).

Germany Charges Tube Smugglers

German prosecutors, meanwhile, charged three people Saturday with attempting to smuggle aluminum tubes to North Korea for use in its nuclear weapons program.  The German firm Optronic attempted to ship 214 aluminum tubes through China to a North Korea uranium processing plant.  The tubes were intercepted in Egypt (see GSN, Aug. 15).

The tubes’ purpose was “clearly nuclear,” according to a Western diplomat.

German authorities also charged two exporters in Hamburg with helping to smuggle the shipment, according to Eckhard Maak, a spokesman for the prosecutors (Reuters/Sydney Morning Herald, Aug. 18).

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North Korea II:  China Pushes Diplomacy in Korean Nuclear Standoff

Chinese officials have decided to act with new initiative to help resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis, reflecting their wariness of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Aug. 15).

“China is playing a constructive role in helping to bring the nuclear issue of the peninsula on to the track of a peaceful solution,” said Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing.  “And we are happy that we seem to enjoy full support of all the international community,” Li added.

Analysts said China feared a potential conflict between the United States and North Korea.

“China realized that if things got out of control, North Korea could go crazy and [U.S.] President [George W.] Bush could go crazy, too,” said Chu Shulong, an expert in international security at Tsinghua University.  “We saw danger on both sides,” Chu added (John Pomfret, Washington Post, Aug. 16).

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak, meanwhile, left for Washington today in part to discuss the Korean crisis (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Aug. 18).

Meanwhile, Chinese General Xu Caihou, director of the Chinese Army’s general political department, left for North Korea today (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Aug. 18).

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Russia:  Russian Nuclear Weapon Research Has Outpaced U.S., Russian Official Says

A senior Russian nuclear official has said that since the 1950s, when Russia tested its first hydrogen bomb, Moscow has maintained a lead over the United States in nuclear weapons technology, including the development of low-yield “bunker-busting” weapons, The Hindu reported today (see GSN, June 20).

“Whereas before 1953 we trailed the U.S. in the sphere of nuclear weapon technology, after 1953 — and to this day — they have been trailing us,” said Viktor Mikhailov, head of research at the Russian Federal Nuclear Center.

Center Director Radyi Ilkayev said that despite funding difficulties, Russia was continuing work on developing new types of nuclear weapons.  Over the past two years, the center has received more government orders and has hired more staff, Ilkayev said.

“The past 15 years have been tough for our nuclear center, but we have never halted weapon programs,” Ilkayev said (Vladimir Radyuhin, The Hindu, Aug. 18).

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North Korea:  Kelly to Head Delegation for Six-Nation Nuclear Talks

Although he has been deemed “arrogant” and “high-handed” by North Korean officials, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly has been tapped to lead the U.S. delegation to talks this month aimed at easing the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear standoff, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Aug. 14).

Countries involved in the six-nation talks, slated for Aug. 27 to 29 in Beijing, include North Korea, China, Russia, South Korea, Japan and the United States.

“We have been on the same page for a long time; we are all agreed what the goal is,” a U.S. State Department official said.

Kelly met with officials from Japan and South Korea yesterday in Washington to formulate a unified front when dealing with Pyongyang (Agence France-Presse/YahooNews, Aug. 15).

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said he is concerned that the six-nation talks could fail if North Korea is not guaranteed a nonagression pact from the United States, AFP reported.

“We face a nuclear problem.  There are expectations for a good settlement but it is true that there is a danger,” Li said (Agence France-Presse II/Singapore Straits Times, Aug. 15).

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North Korea:  Powell Says No Economic Incentives Offered

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that the United States has not offered economic incentives to urge North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions (see GSN, Aug. 13).

“We have put no economic proposals forward at the moment,” Powell said.  In recent weeks, Powell has suggested that Washington could provide an informal nonaggression agreement to Pyongyang.

“We are looking for a different relationship with North Korea,” he said (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/London Guardian, Aug. 14).

A senior White House official said, “there is still no internally agreed upon U.S. position.”

U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that he thinks the crisis can be resolved “in a peaceful way, and we’re making good progress” (Bill Nichols, USA Today, Aug. 14).

Meanwhile, U.S., South Korean and Japanese diplomats met yesterday in Washington and discussed upcoming six-nation talks with North Korea.

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing also met with South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan in Seoul and developed a coordinated approach for the negotiations, Yonhap News Agency reported.

After the meeting, Li announced he was “pleased to say that we have reached a consensus” (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, Aug. 14).

China and Russia might offer North Korea a nonaggression treaty in an effort to persuade Pyongyang to end its nuclear weapons efforts, the Associated Press reported.

“The two countries might offer additional guarantees, if guarantees established by the United States fail to meet North Korea’s expectations to the full,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov.  “North Korea’s wish to have security guarantees looks absolutely logical and there is every indication it will be insisting on them,” he added (Steve Gutterman, Associated Press/Moscow Times, Aug. 10).

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Iran:  Council Advances Second Bushehr Reactor

Iran’s Supreme Nuclear Council has approved the development of a second nuclear reactor in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Aug. 13).

The announcement was reported on Iranian state-run television (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press/Kansas City Star, Aug. 13).

The council also reviewed a report from the Iranian nuclear agency on the best location for the reactor, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency.  The plant would reportedly have a 1,000-megawatt capacity (Islamic Republic News Agency, Aug. 14).

The council also mentioned the potential development of a particle accelerator, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse, Aug. 14).

Iranian nuclear chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh said U.N. inspectors were allowed to visit a Tehran electric company last week, two months after they were turned away from the same site (Dareini, Associated Press).

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United States I:  Building Explodes at Minuteman 3 Motor Plant

Rocket fuel preparation activities have been halted at a California facility after an accidental explosion leveled a three-story building there last week.  The San Jose plant produces motors for rockets such as the Minuteman 3 ICBM, according to the San Jose Mercury News (see GSN, Aug. 8).

The explosion occurred during a routine mixing of 5,000 to 6,000 pounds of rocket fuel propellant, said Julie Anderson, a spokeswoman for United Technologies’ Pratt & Whitney Space Propulsion Chemical Systems Division, which operates the plant.  Three employees were remotely operating the fuel mixing-equipment from a bunker about one-half mile from the explosion site, the Mercury News reported.

Safety measures at the plant helped to prevent fatalities, injuries or other structural damage from the explosion, Pratt & Whitney officials said.  The building exploded as it was designed to do so in the event of an accident, the company said (San Jose Mercury News, Aug. 8). 

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United States II:  Conservatives Outline Need for Low-Yield Warheads

Two conservative commentators this week called for the United States to build new “bunker-busting” nuclear weapons to help destroy weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Aug. 8).

In an opinion piece published yesterday in USA Today, former U.S. House Speaker House Newt Gingrich said the United States should develop low-yield nuclear weapons to have the capability to destroy deeply buried WMD facilities.

As tunneling technology continues to improve, rogue states such as Iran and North Korea will develop new ways to hide “weapons-of-mass-death” facilities beyond the range of conventional weapons, said Gingrich, now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.  Bunker-busting nuclear weapons would be able to penetrate deep underground to hit and destroy such facilities, he said.

Gingrich said existing nuclear warheads could not be used to destroy deep-buried targets.  New low-yield weapons could destroy such targets with only a minimum of collateral damage, as opposed to current warheads, he said.

In his piece, Gingrich also suggested that new low-yield nuclear warheads would go beyond the deterrence purposes of the current U.S. nuclear arsenal.

“This would be a weapon designed to be used,” Gingrich said.  “It would not simply be a weapon of deterrence, as current nuclear weapons are,” he added (Newt Gingrich, USA Today/Yahoo!News, Aug. 14).

In a commentary released Monday, Jack Spencer of the Heritage Foundation also advocated developing low-yield nuclear weapons, saying such weapons would be especially effective against biological weapons.  While conventional munitions may be able to destroy a biological weapons facility, they also carry the risk of spreading biological agents, Spencer said.  A low-yield nuclear weapon would be able to both destroy the facility and incinerate biological agents, preventing their release, he said (see GSN, Aug. 11).

Spencer also called on Congress to increase funding for research into new nuclear weapons.  He noted the efforts in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to reduce such funding in the fiscal 2004 energy appropriations bill (see GSN, July 17).

“The Bush administration has requested essential levels of funding for feasibility studies that would begin to define the role that nuclear weapons should play in the 21st century,” Spencer said.  “Congress should meet, or exceed, those funding requests,” he added (Jack Spencer, Heritage Foundation release, Aug. 12).

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Iran:  U.N. Inspectors Conducting Environmental Studies

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency are in Iran today to collect environmental samples, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Aug. 8).

The inspectors will collect water, air and soil samples, which will be sent to Vienna and tested for radioactive traces.  The IAEA is investigating U.S. allegations that Iran is secretly developing a nuclear weapon under the guise of a civilian energy program.

Inspectors conclude their work Thursday, and the testing results will be revealed in a Sept. 8 report from IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (Agence France-Presse/Pakistan Business Recorder, Aug. 13).

A senior Iranian official, meanwhile, said he expects “positive” results by September over negotiations on the Additional Protocol to Iran’s safeguards agreement with the IAEA.  The protocol would allow the agency to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities.

“We have had good negotiations with Mohamed ElBaradei and I believe it is possible that, before September, we will have positive results on this matter,” said the country’s nuclear chief, Gholamreza Aghazadeh.  “I think we will assuage international fears and in return, we expect (the international community) to stand by its commitments,” he added.

Aghazadeh said that last week’s visit by IAEA legal experts dealt with “significant” uncertainties, but “the discussions must continue” (Agence France-Presse/Space War, Aug. 13).

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United States:  Energy Department Might Not Release Disbanded Committee’s Report

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON ð— Weeks after the U.S. Energy Department’s nuclear weapons agency dismissed its independent expert advisory committee, the agency is now evaluating whether to release the principal report by that committee, officials said this week (see GSN, July 30).

“The options are you’ll either get the whole report or a sanitized version, or the report will be withheld as ‘Official Use Only,’” said an Energy Department official who asked not to be identified.

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s 15-member advisory committee finished a report on the agency’s activities this past spring.  The Federal Advisory Committee Act requires that reports by such committees be made public.

NNSA officials have refused to release it so far, however, saying it is being scrutinized by the administration’s general counsel’s office.

“Apparently they’re giving it to someone who’s looking over every word.  They’ve brought a specialist in … a special lawyer with an extra large magnifying glass,” the official said.

NNSA’s defense programs office has recommended that the 35-page document be withheld on grounds that information contained in it is “dated” and “sensitive,” the official said.

The freezing of the report and NNSA’s recently reported decision to dissolve the committee in late June have drawn criticism from Representative Edward Markey (D-Mass).

U.S. law requires NNSA to “release copies of any reports, where possible, and send such copies to the Library of Congress,” he said in a July 29 statement.

“When [the committee members] submitted the report, they were originally told it would be publicly released.  Then it was immediately stamped ‘For Official Use Only.’  Now, some year and a half later, [NNSA is] finally deciding to do something about it and it’s undergoing a review from the general counsel’s office,” said Markey spokesman Benn Tannenbaum.

Department Seeks to “Close Itself Off”

Markey, in a July 29 letter to Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, inquired why the report had not been released, why quarterly meetings of the committee ended in May 2002 and why the committee was dismissed in June through e-mail rather than through notification in the Federal Register as required by advisory committee act.

“The Advisory Committee was created under the auspices of the Federal Advisory Committee Act, which means that Congress and the public must be kept informed about the activities — including disbanding — of the committee,” he wrote.

Markey added that the Energy Department has endorsed legislation passed by the House this year that would exempt it from the FACA requirements.

That, coupled with the dismissal of the committee, he wrote, “suggest that the Department of Energy is seeking to close itself off from any independent outside expert advice regarding its nuclear weapons programs.”

NNSA spokesman Bryan Wilkes said NNSA Administrator Linton Brooks would continue to receive advice from a three-member group called the Nuclear Weapons Council, which consists of the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and technology, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the undersecretary of energy for nuclear security.

“I am uncomfortable with this situation, as the NWC is composed entirely of government officials, and therefore is not really suited to perform the functions of a federal advisory committee,” Markey wrote.

He described the committee, appointed by former NNSA Administrator John Gordon, as “the one forum for honest, unbiased external review of its nuclear policies.”

Controversial Subjects

The committee’s charter required it to evaluate and make recommendations on NNSA activities, including assessments from a policy, performance and scientific perspective of programs, projects and facilities.

Committee members contacted said they did not recall anything particularly controversial about the report.

“I don’t think we were exactly trying to burn the house down or anything.  I think we were trying to work within the system and be constructive.  So I don’t think there is anything terribly earthshaking in the report,” said Ellen Williams, a University of Maryland physics professor.

The committee did, however, review two initiatives the Bush administration is advocating this year that have been politically controversial:  reducing the time needed to prepare for a nuclear test and the Advanced Concepts Initiative, which could include research and development on low-yield nuclear weapons for attacking bunkers and on warheads for destroying deeply buried chemical and biological weapons.

Committee member and University of California at Berkeley professor Raymond Jeanloz said the report, the final version of which he has not seen, might challenge some assumptions the administration has used to argue for those initiatives.

He said, for instance, while administration officials have urged reducing legal restrictions on research and development ostensibly to enable nuclear weapons designers to exercise their skills, the committee found that the initiative mainly involved using old designs.

“Either they’re really going to start working on advanced concepts that are really new designs, in which case it seems like they are pushing toward resumption of nuclear testing if we ever put those designs into stockpile.  Or, alternatively, this whole story about how we need advanced concepts to exercise the creativity of our designers is really a sham,” he said.

Jeanloz said further that the preparation time for resuming nuclear tests was found to be not a question of physical readiness, but rather of diagnosing a suspected problem and developing a test to deal with it.

The committee was told by the national nuclear laboratories that “the nation would be able to perform a test in 3 to 6 months” if the goal was simply to produce an explosion, he said.

“From the labs’ point of view, until they know why they would have to have a test to address some hypothetical technical problem, they don’t know how long it would take them.  So this whole business of a three-year, or a one-and-a-half year, or a half-year delay before they can test is incredibly artificial,” he said.

Jeanloz and other committee members said they have not yet concluded that the NNSA’s delay indicates an attempt to suppress the results of the report.

“I don’t think NNSA is trying to bury things right now.  I think they’re confused, and in a state of confusion, they can end up doing what I think would hurt them in the long run, which is not to release this whole thing,” Jeanloz said.

“At this point, one can say either they are trying to do something illegal or they are just being slow and not being very responsive because that’s their nature.  I just don’t know,” said Sidney Drell, a professor of theoretical physics at Stanford University.

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North Korea:  Washington Might Offer Economic Concessions

Washington might offer economic concessions to North Korea if Pyongyang abandons its nuclear weapons ambitions, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 12).

The economic assistance would only arrive after North Korea scrapped its nuclear weapons program, according to a Bush administration official.

“There’s no such thing as you-do-this and suddenly Ed McMahon shows up with a check for $10 billion,” the official added.

The United States, North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia are scheduled to meet in Beijing Aug. 27 to 29 for talks on defusing the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

“There are a lot of ideas being discussed,” said an Asian diplomat.  “The question is how they will be packaged, and in what sequence.  The United States clearly wants its concerns addressed at an early stage, while the North Koreans want their concerns addressed at an early stage,” the diplomat added (Steven Weisman, New York Times, Aug. 13).

North Korea demanded a nonaggression pact from the United States and said it would not agree to an early inspection of its nuclear facilities.

“It is clear that as long as the U.S. insists on its hostile policy toward the D.P.R.K., the latter will not abandon its nuclear deterrent force,” a North Korean spokesman said.  “An ‘earlier inspection’ is impossible and unthinkable before the U.S. abandons its hostile policy against the D.P.R.K.,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 13).

Russian officials, meanwhile, held negotiations with North and South Korean diplomats today to prepare for the late August talks.

“We are counting on finding out about the moods of Pyongyang and Seoul and the ideas they intend to put forward,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov.  “In a way Moscow is in a better position to do this, since we conduct regular contacts with North Korea,” he added (Steve Gutterman, Associated Press, Aug. 13).

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CTBT:  Palau Signs Treaty

Palau signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty yesterday, according to the CTBT Organization (see GSN, Aug. 11).  To date, 168 nations have signed the treaty and 104 have ratified it, including 32 of the 44 nations whose ratifications are necessary for the treaty to enter into force (CTBT Organization, Aug. 13).

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