North Korea:  Pyongyang Says Talks Will Begin Soon

North Korea said today that it will soon begin negotiations in Beijing with five other nations in an attempt to end the nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula (see GSN, Aug. 1).

“Six-party talks for a solution to the nuclear issue between the D.P.R.K. and the U.S. will be held in Beijing soon thanks to the former’s initiative and peaceful efforts,” said a spokesman from the North Korean Foreign Ministry.  “As the multilateral talks are slated to take place as called for by the U.S. side so far, the forthcoming talks will clearly show the world community whether the U.S. has a true willingness to make a switchover in its policy toward the D.P.R.K. or not,” the spokesman added.

A South Korean official said the talks would probably begin this month rather than September, Reuters reported (Reuters/Washington Post, Aug. 4).

North Korea agreed to the talks after Washington said it was willing to meet directly with diplomats from Pyongyang within the multilateral format.  North Korean officials have long demanded direct talks with the United States.

“Some time ago, the U.S. informed the D.P.R.K. through a third party that the D.P.R.K.-U.S. bilateral talks may be held within the framework of multilateral talks,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

U.S. President George W. Bush said the United States will not enter into a “bilateral agreement” with North Korea.

“There are now five nations and North Korea sitting at a table,” Bush said.  “The discussions will be all aimed at convincing (North Korean leader) Mr. Kim Jong Il to change his attitude about nuclear weaponry,” he added (Pan/Kessler, Washington Post, Aug. 2).

North Korea, however, said it would not negotiate with U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton.  During a recent speech in South Korea, Bolton called North Korea’s Kim a “tyrannical dictator.”

“Such human scum and bloodsucker is not entitled to take part in the talks,” said the North Korean Foreign Ministry (Soo-jeong Lee, Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, Aug. 4).

The Foreign Ministry added that due to Bolton’s “political vulgarity and psychopathological condition,” North Korea has “decided not to consider him as an official of the U.S. administration any longer, nor to deal with him” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Aug. 4).

Regardless of who attends the summit on behalf of the United States, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Washington will not trade aid for security.

“We’re not doing nonaggression pacts … we, as a practice, don’t do that.  But there are ways to talk about security, and there are ways to talk about intent,” he said (Agence France-Presse, Aug. 4).

Washington, Tokyo Consider Inspection Teams

Meanwhile, the United States and Japan are considering whether to form inspection teams — separate from the International Atomic Energy Agency — to investigate North Korean nuclear facilities.  The potential inspection teams could be used if an agreement is reached to end the nuclear standoff and would include experts from the United States, Japan, China, South Korea and Russia.

Although they would be indepentdent, the teams would would cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 3).

Plan for War, Woolsey Says

The U.S. public’s rejection of war on the Korean Peninsula has undermined U.S. officials trying to influence China to intercede with North Korea, according to former CIA chief James Woolsey and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney.

In a Wall Street Journal commentary, the two said that China is the only nation with any leverage over North Korea, and that improving U.S. readiness to attack North Korea would signal China that the Washington would act if Beijing does not.

As for military planning, the two said the United States cannot limit military action to surgical strikes on nuclear facilities.

“We must be prepared to win a war, not execute a strike,” the two wrote.

Woolsey and McInerney advocated overwhelming air power and improved air defenses.

“The U.S. should begin planning immediately to deploy the Patriot tactical ballistic missile defense system plus Aegis ships to South Korea and Japan, and also to reinforce our tactical air forces by moving in several air wings and aircraft carrier battle groups, together with the all-important surveillance aircraft and drones,” they wrote.  A U.S. air attack would be overwhelmingly successful, they added.

“North Korea’s geriatric air defenses — both fighter aircraft and missiles — would not last long.  As the Iraqis understood when facing our air power, if you fly, you die,” according to the commentary.

The two officials estimated that North Korea could be defeated in 30 to 60 days (Woolsey/McInerney, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 4).

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Iran:  French Officials Report Advanced Iranian Nuclear Program

French officials completed a classified report in May that claims that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon, the Los Angeles Times reported today.

The report calls on other nations to practice “the most serious vigilance on their exports to Iran and Iranian front companies.”

Iranian officials have also been receiving extensive assistance from foreign experts, according to the Times.  North Korean scientists have been working in Iran, and Iranian officials reportedly established a resort on the Caspian Sea for their exclusive use, according to sources in the country and foreign intelligence agencies.  Abdul Qadeer Khan, a Pakistani nuclear scientist, has also been assisting the Iranian program, according to the Times.

“Pakistan’s role was bigger from the beginning than we thought,” said a Middle Eastern intelligence official.

Russia has been working with Iran to build a nuclear reactor at Bushehr.  Iran, however, is also building a heavy-water reactor that is more likely to be used in weapons development.  Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the president of Iran’s atomic energy agency, said the heavy-water reactor is for research purposes and could be used to make radioisotopes for medical applications.

Experts, however, said the reactor causes concerns.

“For Iran, there is no justification whatsoever to have a heavy-water plant,” said Gary Samore, director of nonproliferation programs at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former Clinton administration security official.

A senior U.N. official said “the heavy-water plant sticks out like a sore thumb” (Douglas Frantz, Los Angeles Times, Aug. 4).

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United States:  Pentagon Considering Development of “Hypersonic” Bomber

U.S. Defense Department officials last week met with representatives from defense contractors to discuss plans to build a “hypersonic” bomber to help combat WMD proliferation, according to the London Sunday Times (see GSN, July 14).

Project Falcon [Force Application and Launch from the Continental United States] calls for developing the Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle, to be designed to fly at a top speed of 6,000 miles per hour directly from the United States to attack countries threatening to use weapons of mass destruction, according to the Sunday Times.  The HCV, expected to be operational by 2025, would take off from a conventional runway and could carry up to 12,000 pounds of bombs.

Prior to the launch of the HCV, the Pentagon first plans to construct a smaller Common Aero Vehicle, which is scheduled to be operational by 2010, the Sunday Times reported.  The CAV would be launched from a rocket or from a conventional airplane and would fly at the HCV’s top speed.  It would also be able to carry up to 1,000 pounds of weapons (Peter Almond, London Sunday Times, Aug. 3).

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North Korea:  Washington Plans Stance for Multilateral Talks

Pyongyang yesterday formally accepted the longstanding U.S. proposal for multilateral talks to resolve the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis, and the White House is now determining a position to take in the talks, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 31).

The state-run Korean Central News Agency said North Korea agreed to the multilateral talks during meetings yesterday in New York with U.S. officials.  The negotiations would include North and South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the United States, according to KCNA.

U.S. officials said the six-nation negotiations could take place in Beijing by September (Voice of America, Aug. 1).

U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton was cautiously optimistic about the announcement.

“We need very close coordination and preparation with the government of South Korea and the government of Japan,” he said (Amy Bickers, Voice of America II, Aug. 1).

According to the Post, some White House officials want to offer energy and economic incentives to Pyongyang in exchange for nuclear disarmament, while others support a hard line with demands but no concessions.

Under one proposal, all the countries at the talks would issue a collective nonaggression guarantee to North Korea, a long-standing demand of the leadership in Pyongyang (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Aug. 1).

Bolton left open the possibility of a nonaggression treaty.

“We have no intent to invade North Korea, and as Secretary [of State Colin] Powell put it, we can find a way to put that down on a piece of paper,” Bolton said, but “as with all other issues raised by the North Korean weapons program, that is going to be resolved in the context of multilateral negotiations” (Bickers, Voice of America II).

The U.S. State Department praised the North Korean decision.

“We are encouraged, we are very encouraged by indications that North Korea is accepting our proposals for multilateral talks,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, noting that Washington is not sure of a timeline, or of what North Korea will bring to the table.

“We’re prepared to talk.  We’re not predicting an outcome to the talks until we actually have them,” he said (State Department transcript, July 31).

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China:  Beijing Criticizes U.S. Defense Department Missile Report

China today attacked a recent U.S. Defense Department report that said Beijing is seeking to acquire more ballistic missiles in preparation for a possible attack on Taiwan (see GSN, July 31).

The report was an attempt by the United States to justify increased defense sales to Taiwan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

“The goal is an excuse to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan and fabricate public opinion,” the ministry said in a statement.  “The Chinese side expresses its strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition,” it said (Joe McDonald, Associated Press/Newsday, Aug. 1).

Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan was quoted today by the Chinese state media as reiterating Beijing’s long-held belief that Taiwan must be reunified with mainland China.

“It is the common aspiration of all the Chinese people, including Taiwan compatriots, to resolve the Taiwan question and accomplish the complete reunification of the motherland,” Cao said (Martin Parry, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 1).

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Russia:  Moscow to Maintain Test Moratorium if Others Do

Russia will continue to maintain a nuclear testing moratorium as long as other countries do the same, Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday (see GSN, July 9).

“We intend to keep the obligations we have undertaken, but on certain conditions, the most important of which is a similar attitude to these obligations by other nuclear powers,” Putin said (Associated Press/Moscow Times, Aug. 1).

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United States:  Carlsbad Site Has Advantages for Location of New Pit Facility, Abraham Says

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham has said there would be advantages to building a new plant to produce plutonium triggers, or “pits,” for nuclear weapons at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, N.M., the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 8).

In a letter to Senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), Abraham said the workforce of the plant and the opportunities for collaboration with the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories and state universities make the Carlsbad site an attractive location for the Modern Pit Facility.  The Carlsbad site also has the benefits of being remote and of having a low area population, Abraham said.

Domenici, who supports the Carlsbad site as being the location for the pit plant, said he welcomed Abraham’s acknowledgement of Carlsbad’s potential benefits.

“As the selection process moves forward, I believe the Energy Department will see more advantages to the Carlsbad site,” Domenici said.  “We still face plenty of competition, but I welcome Secretary Abraham’s acknowledgement that the Carlsbad site does offer some advantages over the other sites,” he said (Associated Press, Aug. 1).

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Iran:  Tehran’s IAEA Representative Calls for Additional Protocol

Iran’s representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday that he wants his government to sign the Additional Protocol, which would allow intrusive inspections of Tehran’s nuclear facilities (see GSN, July 24).

The protocol was “not conceived just for Iran or Third World countries, and sooner or later all IAEA member states will have to sign up,” Ali Akbar Salehi said.

“I hope that we can overcome the problem by the next IAEA board of governors meeting in September through the measures that top officials are going to take in the coming month,” he added, noting that the Additional Protocol would ease international pressure on Iran (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 27).

Experts, however, are skeptical that Iran will sign the protocol by September, BBC.com reported (BBC.com, July 27).

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North Korea:  Talks Between Beijing, Pyongyang Progressing Slowly

Chinese efforts to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula are not making much progress, South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan said today (see GSN, July 25).

“The negotiating process between North Korea and China is not speedy, but has slowed down a bit,” Yoon said.  “North Korea holds the key.  The ball now is in North Korea’s court,” he added.

China is currently attempting to arrange trilateral talks with North Korea and the United States.

“No one can tell for sure what the timing of the talks will be,” Yoon said.  “Since North Korea has yet to respond, we can’t predict the timing.  We need to wait,” he said (Kim Kyoung-wha, Reuters, July 28).

Yoon said he has lost his early optimism that talks could begin soon.

“At the beginning I believed it was possible to resume the talks at an early date,” Yoon said.  “But as time passes, the North Korean-Chinese consultation is slowing down, rather than speeding up.  We need to wait,” he added (Agence France-Presse, July 28).

John Bolton, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, is in Beijing to discuss the nuclear standoff with Chinese officials, Agence France-Presse reported today.  Bolton is also scheduled to visit South Korea and Japan this week (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 28).

At a press conference today in Beijing, Bolton said China has worked to resolve the crisis but the U.N. Security Council should address the issue.

“I am not sure that there’s anything else specifically that we can think of that the government here could do that they haven’t already tried,” he said.  “Those who say that the Security Council is not the appropriate place to go have to take into account the impact of their statements on the long-term significance of the potential role of the council in a variety of disputes,” Bolton added (John Ruwitch, Reuters/MSNBC.com, July 28).

Roh Says Nonaggression Treaty Unnecessary

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said yesterday that the United States does not need to sign an nonaggression treaty with Pyongyang, a move that North Korea has been calling for throughout the crisis.

“I don’t think we need to give this particular form of legal assurance to North Korea,” Roh said in a U.S. television interview.

He also dismissed reports that North Korea has made extensive progress in reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods.

“Both of our governments think that North Korea’s claims are exaggerated.  Specifically, the argument that it has already completed reprocessing plutonium and that it is very close to developing a nuclear weapon.  I think these arguments are exaggerated,” Roh said.

Despite the reprocessing reports, “when we look at the analysis, even if they did reprocess the plutonium, it was done on a very small scale,” he added (Federal News Service transcript, July 27).

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Russia:  Moscow Purchases Soviet-Era ICBMs from Ukraine

Russia has purchased Soviet-era SS-19 ICBMs from Ukraine and has begun work on new advanced ballistic missile submarines, officials said Friday (see GSN, Oct. 10, 2002).

While Ukraine has dismantled most of its former Soviet arsenal, it decided in October to sell about 30 retained SS-19s to Russia, according to the Associated Press.  Interfax-Military News Agency reported Friday that the missile transfer has been completed.

Russia’s purchase of the ICBMs is an easy way for Moscow to increase its strategic capabilities, said Alexander Pikayev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Moscow office.

“It will allow Russia to save funds that would have to be spent on building expensive new missiles,” he said.

In addition, a new nuclear submarine armed with advanced ICBMs is set to enter into service in 2006, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Friday (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/Boston Globe, July 27).

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Israel:  IAEA to Discuss Tel Aviv’s Nuclear Program

The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to discuss Israel’s long-suspected nuclear weapons program during the agency’s next general conference, scheduled to be held in Vienna Sept. 15-19, Hi Pakistan reported today (see GSN, June 30).

The IAEA agreed to discuss Israel’s nuclear program at the request of Arab members, according to Hi Pakistan.  A number of Arab states have compiled a fact sheet on Israel’s nuclear program to be sent to IAEA members before the September meeting.  Some experts believe that Israel possesses between 200 to 300 nuclear warheads, Hi Pakistan reported (Hi Pakistan, July 28).

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United States:  Quality Issues Delay Minuteman Upgrades

U.S. defense contractor Northrop Grumman will be late in delivering rebuilt rocket motors for U.S. nuclear missiles because of problems at a subcontractor’s facility, Bloomberg.com reported yesterday (see GSN, June 11).

The deliveries are behind schedule because of “systemic quality problems” at a United Technologies Pratt & Whitney Space Propulsion plant.  Delivery of the rocket motors, which are being rebuilt for the Minuteman III ICBM arsenal, will not be back on schedule until August 2005, according to Air Force documents.

The discovery of the problems has highlighted “the systemic quality problem that exists at Pratt & Whitney,” said Air Force Major Heidi Fier, program manager for the Minuteman III Propulsion Replacement program, in an April 25 report.

Northrop Grumman runs the $6 billion, 15-year effort to modernize the Minuteman III missile fleet (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg.com, July 27).

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