Iran:  IAEA Legal Team in Tehran to Discuss Additional Protocol

Legal experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived in Tehran yesterday to hold talks on the possibility of Iran signing the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement that would allow more intrusive monitoring of Iranian nuclear activities (see GSN, Aug. 4).

The three-member team met with Iranian government lawyers to discuss the fine points of the agreement, according to Saber Zaeimian, a spokesman for the Iranian nuclear agency.

The United States has accused Iran of secretly developing nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian nuclear energy program.  Washington is “working with the IAEA to make sure that they do not continue on this course, which is unacceptable,” according to White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

Islamic conservatives in Iran, however, have been urging government leaders to reject the Additional Protocol (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 4).

Mahmoud Hashemi Shahrudi, the top Iranian judiciary official, supported the anti-protocol push.

“The Iranian leadership, with the support of the people, will not give in to pressure, and the representatives of the people and the students will resist America’s aim to impose its will by force,” he said (Beirut Daily Star, Aug. 5).

Back to top

North Korea I:  Six-Party Talks Might Not Be Unified Against Pyongyang

The four countries that join the planned multilateral talks with the United States and North Korea might not line up squarely on Washington’s side, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Aug. 4).

The talks are scheduled to include North Korea, the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia.

“The U.S. is expecting it to be five pressuring one; will it?” said Ralph Cossa, head of the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.  “Certainly everyone agrees that North Korea has to give up its nuclear weapons but most also want the U.S. to offer some carrots.  So there will be pressure on both North Korea and the U.S. at the meeting,” he added (Jane Macartney, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Aug. 5).

North Korea, meanwhile, stopped its radio and megaphone propaganda campaign across the demilitarized zone this weekend.  Pyongyang is attempting to win friends before the talks begin, the New York Times reported.

“Ultimately the North Korean game is to split South Korea and other countries away from the United States,” said Marcus Noland, a Korea expert at the Institute for International Economics in Washington.  “Ultimately the North Koreans want their charm campaign to soften up South Korea and other countries and make them less likely to back the United States in any kind of coercive diplomacy,” he added (James Brooke, New York Times, Aug. 5).

The White House, meanwhile, has defended last week’s speech by Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton.  Bolton called North Korean leader Kim Jong Il a “tyrannical dictator” (see GSN, July 31).

“He was speaking for the administration,” White House spokesman Scott McClellan said yesterday, “and I think his remarks last week reiterated things we’ve previously said” (CNN.com, Aug. 4).

State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said the comments had been cleared by administration officials before the speech was given.  North Korea said it would not negotiate with Bolton in the future, but Reeker said that the U.S. delegation to the talks would be selected by U.S. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell (State Department transcript, Aug. 4).

Back to top

International Response:  “Secondary Proliferators” Helping to Circumvent Nonproliferation Regimes

Arms control experts are concerned that a newly established distribution network, consisting of lesser-developed nations, could help countries to circumvent existing nonproliferation regimes to obtain the materials and equipment needed to develop nuclear weapons, the San Francisco Chronicle reported Sunday (see GSN, June 20).

The success of Iran and North Korea — two lesser-developed nations — in obtaining the equipment and materials needed to develop nuclear weapons has raised concerns that other lesser-developed countries, as well as terrorist organizations, could follow suit, according to the Chronicle.  There are also concerns that Iran and North Korea, as well as other countries, could be serving as “secondary proliferators” by providing materials and equipment to other countries.

“There’s been increased concern about those new suppliers,” said Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nonproliferation Project.  “The last year has really brought it home in spades, in large part because of Pakistan and their reported role in spreading the centrifuge technology.  If they haven’t been the primary suppliers, they have been the professors,” he said.

The growth of this proliferation network has raised concern among arms control experts that the current nonproliferation mechanisms — international treaties and national export control systems — may be inadequate, the Chronicle reported.

“Even guys like me, who support the treaties and want to see them flourish, understand that realistically they are not enough anymore,” said Leonard Spector, a nonproliferation expert at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

“You have to say that there’s more going on than we can manage with the traditional tools,” Spector said.  “What has changed is that by the end of the Cold War, the countries working on getting the bomb were threatening to us, in this country.  That was a major, major change,” he said.

Another concern is that these secondary proliferators have also begun exchanging information on how to circumvent existing controls, such as by establishing front companies to obtain WMD-related materials, according to the Chronicle.

“The face of proliferation has changed a lot in recent years,” said Robert Einhorn, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  “It isn’t terribly new; we saw this in the ‘90s.  But what we’re seeing more of is, these countries are turning to each other for components and subcomponents and technology that they didn’t have before,” he said (James Sterngold, San Francisco Chronicle, Aug. 3).

Back to top

North Korea II:  Preventing Nuclear Smuggling Is Top Priority, Study Says

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

Preventing North Korea from smuggling nuclear weapons is the most important task facing the United States in the crisis on the Korean Peninsula, according to a study released Friday (see GSN, Aug. 4).

As the latest nuclear standoff nears its first anniversary, North Korea appears ready to re-enter multilateral talks and discuss U.S. concerns about Pyongyang’s nuclear development.  Pyongyang appears to have given in to U.S. demands that South Korea and Japan be involved in the negotiations.  The six-party talks will also include Russia and China.

The most pressing danger, however, is not a North Korean nuclear attack but rather the threat of nuclear proliferation, according to a simulation conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.  Experts assembled at CSIS in May to role-play a response to the North Korean crisis.

“North Korea is dangerous but somewhat contained,” according to a report from the simulation.  The “greatest risk is posed by proliferation … stopping the transfer of nuclear weapons is crucial,” the report says.

Experts from CSIS sounded a cautious tone last week on the possibility of talks with Pyongyang.

“Negotiations, if they do take place, are only the first step in the process of dealing with North Korean proliferation,” said Anthony Cordesman, a CSIS expert in strategy.

The talks may offer little hope for a lasting solution to the crisis, according to Robert Einhorn, a senior CSIS adviser and a former senior nonproliferation official at the State Department.

“With the North Koreans sounding increasingly as if they are determined to acquire and retain nuclear weapons, and the deeply divided Bush administration ambivalent at best about reaching an agreement with a regime it considers untrustworthy and repugnant, there is little basis for optimism about the next round of Beijing talks,” Einhorn said.

Back to top

China:  Chinese Students Stole Data on U.S.-Licensed Material, Pentagon Says

Two Chinese students at U.S. universities have provided China with U.S.-developed data that has enabled Beijing to produce a material that could be used in long-range ballistic missiles, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 1).

According to a U.S. Defense Department report, the two students — one at Iowa State University and the other at Pennsylvania State University — provided China with data to develop Terfenol-D, a material that can be used in a multiple warhead missile stage.  The data was stolen within the past three years, an FBI official said.

“This is a classic example of how the Chinese collect dual-use military technology,” the FBI official said.  “Students come here; they get jobs; they form companies,” the official added.

China is using students and scientists to help develop military technologies, according to the Pentagon report.  Beijing also uses “husband-wife teams,” the FBI official said (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Aug. 5).

The FBI believes China has established more than 3,000 “front” companies to aid in its espionage activities, according to the Associated Press.  The bureau has listed China as posing the greatest espionage threat to the United States in the next 10 to 15 years, AP reported.

“They figured out that what they want is throughout the United States, not just embassies, not just consulates,” FBI Assistant Director for Counterintelligence David Szady said.  “It’s a major effort,” he said.

To help stem that threat, the FBI has begun strengthening its counterintelligence efforts, transferring more than 160 agents to counterintelligence duties and establishing counterintelligence operations in all bureau field offices, according to AP.  FBI officials have also begun to hold meetings with representatives from businesses and universities to assess potential espionage threats (Curt Anderson, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Aug. 4).

Back to top

United States I:  Senior Officials to Meet Thursday to Discuss Nuclear Arsenal

About 150 U.S. officials are expected to meet this week at U.S. Strategic Command headquarters to discuss the future of the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal, according to Reuters (see GSN, Aug. 1).

The meeting, scheduled for Thursday at Offutt Air Force Base near Omaha, Nebraska, will involve officials from the U.S. Defense Department, Energy Department, State Department, the National Nuclear Security Administration and the National Security Council, said Pentagon spokesman Maj. Michael Shavers.  The meeting will be chaired by Pentagon official Michael Wynne, acting undersecretary for acquisition, technology and logistics.

“They’re going to take a look at the status of the nation’s nuclear stockpile, particularly with an eye toward the Moscow Treaty that says we’ve got to get our stockpile numbers down, and how do we do that in a manner that still allows us to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent,” Shavers said, referring to the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (see GSN, July 24).

Some arms control experts are concerned, however, that the meeting could lead to resumed U.S. nuclear testing and the development of new nuclear weapons, according to Reuters.  The meeting could result in the determination of a military requirement for a new type of nuclear weapon, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

“Traditionally, once there has been a stated need by the uniformed military for a new weapon to deal with some contingency or some threat that’s out there, that has been the catalyst for design, engineering, development and testing of nuclear weapons,” Kimball said (Will Dunham, Reuters/Planet Ark, Aug. 5).

Back to top

United States II:  Watchdog Group Calls for Y-12 Plant to Shut Down

The Oak Ridge Environmental Peace Alliance said last week that the U.S. Energy Department should shut down the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant in Oak Ridge, Tenn., until criticality safety procedures are improved, according Energy Daily (see GSN, Dec. 6, 2002).

The group has issued a report saying that some nuclear warheads and fissile materials were stored at the facility under leaking roofs, exposing them to flooding in the event of heavy rains and creating a criticality hazard.  In addition, warheads and fissile materials are stored in various types of containers, leading to confusion among Y-12 workers as to proper criticality measures, according to Energy Daily.

NNSA spokesman Steven Wyatt, however, has denied that the Y-12 facility was unsafe, saying its operations complied with regulatory requirements.

“Contrary to the claims raised by the Oak Ridge Environmental Peace Alliance, the Y-12 National Security Complex operates in a safe manner that protects worker and public health and safety,” Wyatt said (see GSN, July 30;George Lobsenz, Energy Daily, Aug. 5).

Back to top

North Korea:  Pyongyang Says Talks Will Begin Soon

North Korea said today that it will soon begin negotiations in Beijing with five other nations in an attempt to end the nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula (see GSN, Aug. 1).

“Six-party talks for a solution to the nuclear issue between the D.P.R.K. and the U.S. will be held in Beijing soon thanks to the former’s initiative and peaceful efforts,” said a spokesman from the North Korean Foreign Ministry.  “As the multilateral talks are slated to take place as called for by the U.S. side so far, the forthcoming talks will clearly show the world community whether the U.S. has a true willingness to make a switchover in its policy toward the D.P.R.K. or not,” the spokesman added.

A South Korean official said the talks would probably begin this month rather than September, Reuters reported (Reuters/Washington Post, Aug. 4).

North Korea agreed to the talks after Washington said it was willing to meet directly with diplomats from Pyongyang within the multilateral format.  North Korean officials have long demanded direct talks with the United States.

“Some time ago, the U.S. informed the D.P.R.K. through a third party that the D.P.R.K.-U.S. bilateral talks may be held within the framework of multilateral talks,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

U.S. President George W. Bush said the United States will not enter into a “bilateral agreement” with North Korea.

“There are now five nations and North Korea sitting at a table,” Bush said.  “The discussions will be all aimed at convincing (North Korean leader) Mr. Kim Jong Il to change his attitude about nuclear weaponry,” he added (Pan/Kessler, Washington Post, Aug. 2).

North Korea, however, said it would not negotiate with U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton.  During a recent speech in South Korea, Bolton called North Korea’s Kim a “tyrannical dictator.”

“Such human scum and bloodsucker is not entitled to take part in the talks,” said the North Korean Foreign Ministry (Soo-jeong Lee, Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, Aug. 4).

The Foreign Ministry added that due to Bolton’s “political vulgarity and psychopathological condition,” North Korea has “decided not to consider him as an official of the U.S. administration any longer, nor to deal with him” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Aug. 4).

Regardless of who attends the summit on behalf of the United States, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Washington will not trade aid for security.

“We’re not doing nonaggression pacts … we, as a practice, don’t do that.  But there are ways to talk about security, and there are ways to talk about intent,” he said (Agence France-Presse, Aug. 4).

Washington, Tokyo Consider Inspection Teams

Meanwhile, the United States and Japan are considering whether to form inspection teams — separate from the International Atomic Energy Agency — to investigate North Korean nuclear facilities.  The potential inspection teams could be used if an agreement is reached to end the nuclear standoff and would include experts from the United States, Japan, China, South Korea and Russia.

Although they would be indepentdent, the teams would would cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 3).

Plan for War, Woolsey Says

The U.S. public’s rejection of war on the Korean Peninsula has undermined U.S. officials trying to influence China to intercede with North Korea, according to former CIA chief James Woolsey and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney.

In a Wall Street Journal commentary, the two said that China is the only nation with any leverage over North Korea, and that improving U.S. readiness to attack North Korea would signal China that the Washington would act if Beijing does not.

As for military planning, the two said the United States cannot limit military action to surgical strikes on nuclear facilities.

“We must be prepared to win a war, not execute a strike,” the two wrote.

Woolsey and McInerney advocated overwhelming air power and improved air defenses.

“The U.S. should begin planning immediately to deploy the Patriot tactical ballistic missile defense system plus Aegis ships to South Korea and Japan, and also to reinforce our tactical air forces by moving in several air wings and aircraft carrier battle groups, together with the all-important surveillance aircraft and drones,” they wrote.  A U.S. air attack would be overwhelmingly successful, they added.

“North Korea’s geriatric air defenses — both fighter aircraft and missiles — would not last long.  As the Iraqis understood when facing our air power, if you fly, you die,” according to the commentary.

The two officials estimated that North Korea could be defeated in 30 to 60 days (Woolsey/McInerney, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 4).

Back to top

Iran:  French Officials Report Advanced Iranian Nuclear Program

French officials completed a classified report in May that claims that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon, the Los Angeles Times reported today.

The report calls on other nations to practice “the most serious vigilance on their exports to Iran and Iranian front companies.”

Iranian officials have also been receiving extensive assistance from foreign experts, according to the Times.  North Korean scientists have been working in Iran, and Iranian officials reportedly established a resort on the Caspian Sea for their exclusive use, according to sources in the country and foreign intelligence agencies.  Abdul Qadeer Khan, a Pakistani nuclear scientist, has also been assisting the Iranian program, according to the Times.

“Pakistan’s role was bigger from the beginning than we thought,” said a Middle Eastern intelligence official.

Russia has been working with Iran to build a nuclear reactor at Bushehr.  Iran, however, is also building a heavy-water reactor that is more likely to be used in weapons development.  Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the president of Iran’s atomic energy agency, said the heavy-water reactor is for research purposes and could be used to make radioisotopes for medical applications.

Experts, however, said the reactor causes concerns.

“For Iran, there is no justification whatsoever to have a heavy-water plant,” said Gary Samore, director of nonproliferation programs at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former Clinton administration security official.

A senior U.N. official said “the heavy-water plant sticks out like a sore thumb” (Douglas Frantz, Los Angeles Times, Aug. 4).

Back to top

United States:  Pentagon Considering Development of “Hypersonic” Bomber

U.S. Defense Department officials last week met with representatives from defense contractors to discuss plans to build a “hypersonic” bomber to help combat WMD proliferation, according to the London Sunday Times (see GSN, July 14).

Project Falcon [Force Application and Launch from the Continental United States] calls for developing the Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle, to be designed to fly at a top speed of 6,000 miles per hour directly from the United States to attack countries threatening to use weapons of mass destruction, according to the Sunday Times.  The HCV, expected to be operational by 2025, would take off from a conventional runway and could carry up to 12,000 pounds of bombs.

Prior to the launch of the HCV, the Pentagon first plans to construct a smaller Common Aero Vehicle, which is scheduled to be operational by 2010, the Sunday Times reported.  The CAV would be launched from a rocket or from a conventional airplane and would fly at the HCV’s top speed.  It would also be able to carry up to 1,000 pounds of weapons (Peter Almond, London Sunday Times, Aug. 3).

Back to top

North Korea:  Washington Plans Stance for Multilateral Talks

Pyongyang yesterday formally accepted the longstanding U.S. proposal for multilateral talks to resolve the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis, and the White House is now determining a position to take in the talks, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 31).

The state-run Korean Central News Agency said North Korea agreed to the multilateral talks during meetings yesterday in New York with U.S. officials.  The negotiations would include North and South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the United States, according to KCNA.

U.S. officials said the six-nation negotiations could take place in Beijing by September (Voice of America, Aug. 1).

U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton was cautiously optimistic about the announcement.

“We need very close coordination and preparation with the government of South Korea and the government of Japan,” he said (Amy Bickers, Voice of America II, Aug. 1).

According to the Post, some White House officials want to offer energy and economic incentives to Pyongyang in exchange for nuclear disarmament, while others support a hard line with demands but no concessions.

Under one proposal, all the countries at the talks would issue a collective nonaggression guarantee to North Korea, a long-standing demand of the leadership in Pyongyang (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Aug. 1).

Bolton left open the possibility of a nonaggression treaty.

“We have no intent to invade North Korea, and as Secretary [of State Colin] Powell put it, we can find a way to put that down on a piece of paper,” Bolton said, but “as with all other issues raised by the North Korean weapons program, that is going to be resolved in the context of multilateral negotiations” (Bickers, Voice of America II).

The U.S. State Department praised the North Korean decision.

“We are encouraged, we are very encouraged by indications that North Korea is accepting our proposals for multilateral talks,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, noting that Washington is not sure of a timeline, or of what North Korea will bring to the table.

“We’re prepared to talk.  We’re not predicting an outcome to the talks until we actually have them,” he said (State Department transcript, July 31).

Back to top

China:  Beijing Criticizes U.S. Defense Department Missile Report

China today attacked a recent U.S. Defense Department report that said Beijing is seeking to acquire more ballistic missiles in preparation for a possible attack on Taiwan (see GSN, July 31).

The report was an attempt by the United States to justify increased defense sales to Taiwan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

“The goal is an excuse to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan and fabricate public opinion,” the ministry said in a statement.  “The Chinese side expresses its strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition,” it said (Joe McDonald, Associated Press/Newsday, Aug. 1).

Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan was quoted today by the Chinese state media as reiterating Beijing’s long-held belief that Taiwan must be reunified with mainland China.

“It is the common aspiration of all the Chinese people, including Taiwan compatriots, to resolve the Taiwan question and accomplish the complete reunification of the motherland,” Cao said (Martin Parry, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 1).

Back to top

Russia:  Moscow to Maintain Test Moratorium if Others Do

Russia will continue to maintain a nuclear testing moratorium as long as other countries do the same, Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday (see GSN, July 9).

“We intend to keep the obligations we have undertaken, but on certain conditions, the most important of which is a similar attitude to these obligations by other nuclear powers,” Putin said (Associated Press/Moscow Times, Aug. 1).

Back to top

United States:  Carlsbad Site Has Advantages for Location of New Pit Facility, Abraham Says

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham has said there would be advantages to building a new plant to produce plutonium triggers, or “pits,” for nuclear weapons at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, N.M., the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 8).

In a letter to Senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), Abraham said the workforce of the plant and the opportunities for collaboration with the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories and state universities make the Carlsbad site an attractive location for the Modern Pit Facility.  The Carlsbad site also has the benefits of being remote and of having a low area population, Abraham said.

Domenici, who supports the Carlsbad site as being the location for the pit plant, said he welcomed Abraham’s acknowledgement of Carlsbad’s potential benefits.

“As the selection process moves forward, I believe the Energy Department will see more advantages to the Carlsbad site,” Domenici said.  “We still face plenty of competition, but I welcome Secretary Abraham’s acknowledgement that the Carlsbad site does offer some advantages over the other sites,” he said (Associated Press, Aug. 1).

Back to top

About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines

HOME  |  CONTACT US  |  GET INVOLVED  |  SITE MAP