Al-Qaeda Facing Disintegration, But Still Capable of Attacks, CIA Says

The CIA has said that although al-Qaeda has suffered devestating setbacks in the U.S. war on terrorism, it remains capable of conducting effective attacks, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Sept. 5).

In a brief provided to U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz prior to his appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, the CIA said that more than two-thirds of known senior al-Qaeda operatives, as well as  10 important al-Qaeda financiers, have been killed or captured.

“The central leadership of al-Qaeda is at growing risk of breaking apart as our blows against the group create a level of disarray and confusion throughout the organization that we have not seen since the collapse of the Taliban in late 2001,” the CIA said in its unclassified brief.

The CIA also warned, however, that even with a lack of senior operatives, al-Qaeda still has available “a large bench of middle managers and foot soldiers” capable of conducting attacks.

“It takes only and handful of terrorists with little more than creativity, dedication, and luck to successfully cause mass casualties,” the agency said (Maxim Kniazkov, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Sept. 10).

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Survey Finds Low Public Confidence in U.S. Health System’s Ability to Respond; RAND Issues WMD Attack Readiness Guidelines

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Less than half of Americans believe the U.S. public health system could respond effectively to a terrorist WMD attack, according to a study released Monday by Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

A telephone poll of 1,373 adults conducted last month found that 46 percent of responders believed the U.S. public health system could effectively respond to a terrorist attack involving biological, chemical or nuclear weapons.  A similar poll conducted last year, however, found that 53 percent of Americans were confident the public health system could respond to a WMD-related attack, according to the study.

Overall, more than 75 percent of Americans are concerned about the possibility of a future terrorist attack in the United States, according to the study.  It also says that 35 percent lack confidence in the federal government’s ability to protect their community in the event of a future terrorist attack.

“This survey reflects an extraordinary lack of public confidence in the nation’s level of preparedness for bioterrorism and major disasters.  And, the fact is that we have not made the kind of progress in these areas that might have been expected two years after 9/11,” Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Mailman School of Public Health, said in a press statement.

Meanwhile, the think-tank RAND today released a new report that provides a number of recommendations for individuals to protect themselves in the event of a WMD attack, warning that the first few minutes following such an attack are the most crucial for survival.

The report, Individual Preparedness and Response to Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear and Biological Terrorist Attacks, outlines immediate goals for those subjected to WMD attacks, as well as specific measures that can be taken to improve safety.  For example, in the event of a chemical weapons attack, the report recommends an immediate emphasis on finding clean air quickly, followed by decontamination and medical treatment. 

In the event of a radiological weapons attack, such as a “dirty bomb,” the report recommends an immediate focus on the avoidance of potentially radioactive dust.  It also recommends that in the event of a full-scale nuclear weapons attack, those affected such evacuate the fallout zone quickly, or if unable to do, find the best available shelter. 

If subjected to a biological weapons attack, the report recommends that the victims seek medical aid and avoid further exposure if possible.  It also warns that in the event of a biological attack involving contagious diseases, such as smallpox, victims should expect to be subjected to surveillance and possible quarantine.

“We found that in most cases, the few minutes immediately following an attack, before professional emergency responders are likely to arrive, are critical to survival,” Tom LaTourrette, an author of the report, said in a press statement.  “Our recommendations are intended to help people act rationally to protect themselves while they are waiting to learn more and for authorities to arrive,” he said.

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Maritime Security Makes Progress but Needs More Work, GAO Says

A top U.S. watchdog yesterday questioned port security assessments being conducted by a Coast Guard contractor (see GSN, Sept. 9).

The General Accounting Office is concerned about the “scope and quality of the assessments,” according to Margaret Wrightson, the General Accounting Office’s director of Homeland Security and Justice Issues.  Wrightson made her statements in a report to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation.

The GAO report did not identify the contractor, who is charging $1 million or more for each assessment.  Auditors interviewed port officials to gauge their opinion of the assessments.

According to officials at one port, their assessment contained “factual errors” and was issued before it could be reviewed.

At another port, “local Coast Guard personnel and port stakeholders noted that a survey instrument referred to the wrong port, asked questions they regarded as not pertaining to security, and was conducted in ways that raised concerns about credibility,” the GAO report says.

The report did say, however, that the Maritime Transportation Security Act “has already produced major changes in the nation’s approach to maritime security” (General Accounting Office release, Sept. 9).

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Sea Cargo Containers Vulnerable to Terrorism, Study Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A report released by RAND Europe yesterday reiterates warnings that terrorists could use sea cargo containers to transport weapons of mass destruction into the United States or to use as weapons themselves.

“Terrorists could … use containers to transport dangerous materials, weapons, or use the containers themselves as weapons of mass destruction,” says the report, Seacurity:  Improving the Security of the Global Sea-Container Shipping System.  “The potential threat of terrorists using containers poses a large risk to our economies and our societies,” it says.

The United States has begun two initiatives to help improve cargo container security.  Through the Container Security Initiative, the United States has entered into agreements with a number of countries to station inspectors at foreign seaports to search high-risk cargo shipments heading to the United States (see GSN, Aug. 6).  Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Robert Bonner announced last month that countries representing 19 of the 20 largest ports in the world have joined the initiative.  Under the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism program, foreign seaports obligate themselves to seal containers before they arrive in the United States, according to the report (see GSN, July 29).

Even with the increased U.S. efforts, however, several challenges still face international cargo container security, the RAND report says.  One of the main challenges is confusion among U.S. and European agencies as to the agencies responsible for managing container security, it says.  In the United States, nine agencies have some role in maritime security, but none has received full authority over the issue.  In the European Union, there is no single authority responsible for port and maritime security, according to the report.

In addition, the fact that multiple parties are involved in the container supply chain also poses a security risk, the report says.  It proposes improvements in logistics-chain integration to reduce the number of parties that handle a cargo container, and in turn, the amount of container seal inspections that would have to be performed.  The report also warns of the difficulties in tracing the whereabouts of a given cargo container and in verifying its port of origin, as well as of cost concerns that could dissuade private industry from undertaking security measures.

The report recommends the use of risk analysis software to better determine the likelihood that a cargo container poses a terrorist risk.  One such program, Contraffic, has been developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center.  In addition, the report also recommends the use of more “active” seals on cargo containers and the increased encouragement of companies with a “vested interest” in container security to invest in more sophisticated security measures.

While cargo containers have not generally been the targets of terrorists in the past, the lack of security could make them attractive targets in the future, according Kevin O’ Brien, a RAND Europe senior policy analyst and an author of the report.

“It is generally acknowledged that the terrorists will choose the way of least resistance as well as choosing targets that result in widespread media coverage.  This coverage is most likely to be provided through attacks resulting in many casualties,” O’Brien said in a press statement.  “Although sea-containers have not been a target in the past compared with air travel, there is no reason why they shouldn’t be targets in the future,” he said.

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Rice Expresses Confidence That Iraq, Al-Qaeda Were Connected

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said yesterday that she “absolutely” believed that there was a link between former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Appearing on FOX News Sunday, Rice said Hussein’s regime helped to train al-Qaeda operatives in “chemical and perhaps biological warfare.”  Rice also noted the presence of the militant Islamic group Ansar al-Islam, suspected of being connected to al-Qaeda, in northern Iraq prior to the war.  In April, U.S. troops were reported to have found evidence of the group’s efforts to develop biological and chemical weapons after Ansar al-Islam bases in northern Iraq were captured (see GSN, April 2).

There has been increasing skepticism, however, of the alleged links between Iraq and al-Qaeda, which was one of the rationales offered by the Bush administration for the war.  In June, the head of the U.N. Security Council group monitoring sanctions against al-Qaeda and the Taliban said there was no evidence of links between Hussein’s regime and al-Qaeda, according to reports (see GSN, June 27).

“Nothing has come to our notice, reported to us … that would indicate links between al-Qaeda and Iraq.  That doesn’t mean to say it doesn’t exist, but as far as we are concerned, the answer is ‘no’,” Michael Chandler, chairman of the monitoring group, was quoted as saying.

Last month, National Journal reported that some former Bush administration officials also believed the alleged connections between Iraq and al-Qaeda were exaggerated (see GSN, Aug. 8).

“Saddam would have seen al-Qaeda as a threat, and al-Qaeda would have opposed Saddam as the kind of secular government they hated,” Greg Thielmann, former official in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, was quoted as saying.

Rice warned yesterday that al-Qaeda might be trying to establish itself in post-Hussein Iraq.

“I think that the evidentiary basis here is not so strong, but we are getting pieces of evidence, certainly, that al-Qaeda is interested in Iraq and may be … trying to operate there,” she said.

Rice’s comments yesterday came in advance of a nationally televised address last night by U.S. President George W. Bush, who called on the U.S. Congress to approve an $87 billion funding request to cover the cost of military and reconstruction operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.  About two-thirds of the request would go toward covering the cost of military and intelligence operations in the two countries over the next year, he said.

In his address, Bush linked the war in Iraq to the overall U.S. war on terrorism.

“The terrorists thrive on the support of tyrants and the resentments of oppressed peoples.  When tyrants fall, and resentment gives way to hope, men and women in every culture reject the ideologies of terror, and turn to the pursuits of peace,” Bush said.  “Everywhere that freedom takes hold, terror will retreat,” he said.

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WMD Acquisition Is “Top” Al-Qaeda Objective, U.S. Homeland Security Department Warns

The U.S. Homeland Security Department yesterday warned that al-Qaeda has made the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction for future attacks a leading priority (see GSN, Sept. 2).

In an advisory issued yesterday, Homeland Security said that al-Qaeda has so far not conducted a successful attack using weapons of mass destruction.  The department warned, however, that obtaining and using such weapons remains “a top al-Qaeda objective.”

“We believe it [al-Qaeda] continues to research more advanced CBRN [chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear] operations, including production of pathogenic organisms and toxins, as well as, high impact dissemination methods such as contamination of water and food, and aerosolization of an agent in enclosed densely populated space,” the department said.

In its advisory, the department said it was “concerned” about al-Qaeda’s efforts to conduct attacks against the United States, based on a review of information leading up to the second anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.  The department added, however, that there was no specific information on possible attacks.

Homeland Security warned that recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and Iraq suggest that al-Qaeda is interested in conducting attacks against “soft” targets — those with minimal physical protection.  Some reports have mentioned plans involving apartment complexes, gas stations and restaurants, the department advisory says.  It also warns that al-Qaeda operatives may use “novel methods” to conduct suicide bombings, such as disguising male operatives as women to avoid scrutiny.

In addition, the department said al-Qaeda is interested in conducting attacks against U.S. infrastructure targets because “of their potentially significant economic and psychological impacts” (see GSN, Aug. 21).  Such targets include nuclear power plants, chemical facilities, water reservoirs and the U.S. food supply.

The Homeland Security advisory said there is no change anticipated to the U.S. terrorism threat level, which currently stands at yellow, indicating an “elevated” risk (U.S. Homeland Security Department release, Sept. 4).

Homeland Security chose not to raise the terrorism threat level to orange, indicating a “high” risk of attack, because “the intelligence information we have isn't specific enough to do that,” department spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Instead, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge told governors and state security officials during a conference call that “they should review and maintain their security procedures,” Johndroe said (Mintz/Goo, Washington Post, Sept. 5).

Meanwhile, the FBI believes that there are a small number of al-Qaeda sympathizers within the United States providing financial and logistical support to the organization, and who could possibly be called upon to conduct attacks, the bureau’s counterterrorism chief, Larry Mefford, said yesterday.

Al-Qaeda’s base of support in the Untied States “is very small, but it certainly exists,” Mefford said.  “Someone could transform rapidly from providing logistical support to a terrorist organization to actually planning an attack, so it’s of great concern to us,” he said (Eric Lichtblau, New York Times, Sept. 5).

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U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Warns Nuclear Plants of Online Virus Threat

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Tuesday that it has issued a warning to nuclear power plant operators about threat of possible computer system failures caused by Internet viruses (see GSN, Aug. 15).

The NRC learned of the vulnerability of plant computer networks to Internet viruses in January, when the Microsoft SQL Server worm caused two systems at the closed Davis-Besse nuclear plant in Ohio to be made unavailable for several hours, according to a commission press release.  Public safety was not affected during the incident, the commission said (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission release, Sept. 2).

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