Rumsfeld Avoids WMD Discussion During Iraqi Visit

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld appeared to avoid the issue of the U.S. search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq during a five-day visit last week to Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Washington Post (see GSN, Sept. 8).

Rumsfeld said he had not asked about progress in the search during a meeting Saturday with David Kay, the CIA representative coordinating the work of the Iraq Survey Group, which is conducting the search.

“I have so many things to do at the Department of Defense," Rumsfeld said.  “I made a conscious decision that I didn’t need to stay current every 15 minutes on the issue.  I literally did not ask. … I’m assuming he’ll tell me if he’d gotten something we should know,” Rumsfeld said.

The topic of the WMD search also came up during Rumsfeld’s visits with U.S. troops, according to the Post.  During one such visit in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, Rumsfeld said that the Iraq Survey group was in charge and that “I have a feeling they will, in fact, continue to work the problem.”

During a final press conference in Baghdad, Rumsfeld was asked twice about possible progress in the search, but refused to answer, the Post reported.

“I’m inclined not to,” Rumsfeld replied to a request for an example of progress in the search.  “I’ll tell you what the situation is:  The situation is that it’s an important question,” he said (Dana Priest, Washington Post, Sept. 9).

IAEA Discounts Iraqi Nuclear Program

Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohammed ElBaradei has said in a confidential report that Iraq’s nuclear weapons program would have been unable to support an active attempt to develop such weapons, according to the Associated Press.

In his report, which is expected to be reviewed by the IAEA Board of Governors this week during a meeting in Vienna, ElBaradei said U.N. weapons inspectors had found no evidence of an active nuclear weapons program before they withdrew in March.

“In the areas of uranium acquisition, concentration and centrifuge enrichment, extensive field investigation and document analysis revealed no evidence that Iraq had resumed such activities,” the report says.  “No indication of post-1991 weaponization activities was uncovered in Iraq,” it says (Associated Press/Newsday, Sept. 9).

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WMD Hunt Slowed by Uncooperative Iraqi Scientists Who Fear Prosecution, Officials Say

Bush administration and congressional officials have said the fear of possible prosecution among Iraqi scientists may be hindering U.S. efforts to search for evidence of Iraq’s suspected WMD programs, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 5).

The publicized arrests of WMD scientists have resulted in reduced cooperation from Iraqi scientists who have knowledge of such programs, sources said.  Those scientists that have been arrested have provided no information on the alleged programs, possibly fearing prosecution for their involvement, officials said.  Those scientists not in U.S. custody are afraid to come forward for fear of being jailed and prosecuted, the Post reported.

Officials are unsure as to best way to handle Iraqi scientists, according to Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), a member of the House intelligence committee who recently visited Baghdad.

“There is uncertainty about the best way” to deal with the Iraqis, Hoekstra said.  “Some (say) the role of prosecuting attorney would not be inappropriate, deciding who to negotiate a deal with so that we not let everyone get off scot-free,” he said.

Former U.N. weapons inspector David Kay, who is coordinating the Iraq Survey Group’s efforts to find Iraqi WMD programs, is expected to provide a report on the group’s progress later this month, a senior Bush administration official said.  The exact date and form of Kay’s report has not yet been determined (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Sept. 6).

Poor Accounting May Have Resulted in “Unaccounted For” Stockpiles

Meanwhile, former U.N. weapons inspectors have said that unaccounted for Iraqi WMD stockpiles may be more the result of poor record keeping, rather than deliberate attempts to hide such weapons, according to the Associated Press.

Some of the suspect stockpiles may be the result of poor accounting after Iraq destroyed biological and chemical weapons years ago, according to former U.N. inspectors.  Some of the unaccounted for weapons may be the results of miscounts, while others may have originated from exaggerated arms production reports intended to appease Iraqi leaders, AP reported.

“Under that sort of regime, you don’t admit you got it wrong,” said former U.N. chemical weapons inspector Ron Manley.

Former U.N. inspector Scott Ritter agreed that Iraqi reports on WMD production quantities were inflated.

“There was so much pressure put on scientists to produce world-class systems, they would exaggerate their reports back to authorities,” Ritter said.  Once inspectors actually visited sites and spoke with scientists, “you suddenly realized they weren’t as good as they said they were,” he said (Charles Hanley, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 7).

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China Holds North Korean WMD Expert

Chinese authorities have detained North Korean biological weapons expert Ri Chae Woo after he attempted to enter the Australian Consulate in Guangzhou to seek political asylum, an anti-North Korean activist said Saturday (see GSN, June 5).

Ri, who has evidence of North Korean human experiments, was planning to testify in the United States about Pyongyang’s biological and chemical weapons programs, said German activist Norbert Vollertsen.  Ri had worked at the Chiha-ri Chemical Corp. in the North Korean city of Anbyon until June, when he and his family fled to China, Vollertsen said.

An Australian Foreign Affairs Department spokeswoman said Canberra was unaware of the incident.

“We have no knowledge of the reported incident.  We checked with our consul general there, who has no knowledge of it either,” the spokeswoman said (Reuters, Sept. 7).

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Supergun Smuggling Trial Begins in Germany

An Iraqi-born businessman went on trial today in Germany over allegations of having violating German export control laws to help Iraq develop a “supergun” that would have been able to fire WMD shells, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 31).  Sahib Abd al-Amir al-Haddad could face up to 15 years in prison if convicted for his alleged role as the middleman in the transfer of drills to Iraq in 1999 that could have been used to construct the al-Fao cannon (Associated Press, Sept. 8).

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Officials Reach Agreement on Suspect Cargo Interdiction Effort at Paris Meeting

Officials from 11 countries yesterday signed an agreement outlining measures to interdict suspect cargo shipments of WMD-related materials by boarding ships and forcing airplanes to land, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Sept. 4).

The agreement, reached during a two-day meeting in Paris, established guidelines for increased international cooperation in the U.S.-initiated Proliferation Security Initiative, AP reported.  The agreement also calls for revising domestic and international laws to improve interdiction efforts and intelligence sharing.

The 11 countries involved in the initiative are Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.  U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said the United States is also interested in recruiting China and Russia to participate.

“While interdiction actions are already a reality, efforts to enhance our collective capabilities for action are essential,” Bolton said (Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, Sept. 5).

China, however, has criticized the effort, questioning its legality, the BBC reported today.

“The best way to prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is through dialogue,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said.  “We understand the concerns of some countries about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. ... But many countries still question the efficiency and legitimacy of adopting this kind of measure,” the spokesman said (BBC News, Sept. 5).

The 11 nations also agreed to conduct a series of 10 air, land and sea interdiction exercises over the next six months, according to the Washington Times.  The first exercise, “Pacific Protector,” is scheduled to begin next week in the Coral Sea off northeast Australia.  The exercise is set to include ships from Australia, France, Japan and the United States, the Times reported. 

Future exercises in the series are expected to be held in the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean, officials said.

The agreement to conduct the exercises was “a very clear demonstration that what we’re involved in here is not a diplomatic exercise,” Bolton said (David Sands, Washington Times, Sept. 5).

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Iraq War Justified by Iraqi Capabilities, Not Actual WMD, Bolton Says

The recent war in Iraq was justified because former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein maintained a cadre of nuclear weapons scientists, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton said yesterday, adding that whether Iraq actually possessed weapons of mass destruction was not “really the issue” (see GSN, Sept. 3).

“The issue I think has been the capability that Iraq sought to have … WMD programs,” Bolton said (see GSN, May 23).

Hussein maintained “a coterie” of scientists with the goal of resuming the development of nuclear weapons once free of international restrictions, Bolton said.  That, when combined with Iraq’s history of misleading U.N. weapons inspectors, illustrated that Hussein could not be trusted not to develop weapons of mass destruction, he said.

“Whether he possessed them [weapons of mass destruction] today or four years ago isn’t really the issue,” Bolton said.  “As long as that regime was in power, it was determined to get nuclear, chemical and biological weapons one way or another,” he said (Associated Press/USA Today, Sept. 5).

British Intelligence Inquiry

Meanwhile, British senior judge Lord Hutton has suspended a parliamentary inquiry that has recently heard testimony on whether British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s government exaggerated prewar intelligence on Iraq to build the case for war, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Sept. 4).

Hutton adjourned the inquiry until Sept. 15 to allow time to consider what witnesses should be recalled and what evidence should be focused upon, AP reported.  The inquiry was convened to investigate the apparent suicide of former U.N. weapons inspector David Kelly, who was identified before his death as the possible source for a BBC report that Blair’s office exaggerated intelligence information contained in a September 2002 dossier (Jane Wardell, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 5).

Blair himself yesterday defended the decision to go to war with Iraq, acknowledging that his government has come under fire.

“It’s been a tough time for obvious reasons, but I do not believe we should change our course because I believe in it,” Blair said during a press conference.

Blair also indicated that he had no thoughts of resigning, according to the New York Times.

“I carry on doing the job because I believe in what I’m doing,” Blair said (Warren Hoge, New York Times, Sept. 5).

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British Analysts Expressed Concern Over September 2002 Dossier, Retired Official Says

A number of British Defense Ministry analysts expressed concerns last September over the claims made in a British dossier on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, a retired ministry official told a parliamentary inquiry yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 3).

Some analysts believed the dossier exaggerated claims about Iraq’s chemical weapons production capabilities, said Brian Jones, a retired senior official with the defense intelligence analysis staff.  While some experts believed Iraq was continuing to produce chemical weapons, there was no solid evidence to support such a judgment, he said.

There was a tendency to “shall we say, over-egg certain assessments in relation particularly to the production of (chemical warfare) agents and weapons since 1998 — the difference between making a judgment that the production of CW agent had taken place as opposed to that judgment being that it had probably taken place or even possibly taken place,” Jones said.

There were also doubts over a claim in the dossier that the Iraqi military could deploy biological and chemical weapons within 45 minutes of being ordered to do so, Jones said.

“We had not seen the weapons being produced,” Jones said.  “We had no evidence of any recent testing or field trials and things like that.  So that all cast some doubts in our mind on that particular piece of intelligence,” he said (Glenn Frankel, Washington Post, Sept. 4).

Jones also said, however, that none of his team of analysts had argued that the claim should not have been included.

“We at no stage argued that this intelligence should not be in the dossier.  We thought it was important intelligence,” he said (Warren Hoge, New York Times, Sept. 4).

Jones told the inquiry that his team’s concerns were for the most part ignored and not included in the final draft of the dossier — a process that he said was “very unusual.”

A second witness who testified before the inquiry yesterday, a chemical weapons consultant identified as “Mr. A,” said the dossier had incorrectly focused on an Iraqi plant that produced phosgene — a chemical that can be used both as a weapon and to produce plastics and pesticide.  There was no evidence, however, that the plant had been used to produce weapons, Mr. A. said.

The dossier’s focus on the plant was “a stupid mistake for the British to make,” Mr. A said (Frankel, Washington Post).

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Officials Plan Shipping Interdiction Effort at Paris Meeting

Eleven nations began two-day talks yesterday in Paris to further develop the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led effort to interdict illicit shipments of WMD cargo, according to U.S. State Department release (see GSN, Aug. 4).

The U.S. delegation is being led by Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton.

“The Paris meeting will focus on the further development of a statement of interdiction principles that will enable countries to better work together within domestic and international law to enhance and expand efforts to prevent the flow of weapons of mass destruction, missiles and related technologies to and from countries of concern,” said a State Department spokesman.

The group — including Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States — held meetings in June and July (U.S. State Department release, Sept. 3).

Intelligence experts were scheduled to meet behind closed doors yesterday, with a plenary session scheduled for today.  Representatives from the participating countries are seeking to “make life more difficult for ships with suspicious cargo” by getting permission from nations to conduct at-sea inspections, according to French diplomats (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Sept. 3).

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U.N. Weapons Inspectors Ready to Return to Iraq If Asked

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.N. weapons inspectors are ready resume their work in Iraq on “short notice” if the U.N. Security Council were to request them to do so, according to a report released late last month by the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (see GSN, June 19).

According to the report, most of the inspectors’ equipment has been safely maintained in storage on Cyprus.  In addition, UNMOVIC technical experts received valuable experience from their work in Iraq before Operation Iraqi Freedom and international weapons experts have indicated their “continuing interest” in serving as inspectors, the report says.

The U.N. inspection infrastructure in Iraq experienced a blow in mid-August with the attack on the Baghdad Ongoing Monitoring and Verification Center, the report says (see GSN, Aug. 20).  It is currently unknown if the center can be repaired for future use or if a new facility would have to be found, it says.

“Apart from this, UNMOVIC would be able and ready to resume field operations in Iraq, including confirmation of any findings related to disarmament, at short notice if the [Security] Council so requests,” the report says.

Since inspectors were withdrawn from Iraq in March, shortly before the war began, they have continued work on several disarmament-related projects such as the development of a new monitoring plan for postwar Iraq, according to the report.  Other projects include the compilation of information on aspects of Iraq’s WMD programs, such as financing, staffing and procurement; as well as the compilation of technical files on Iraq’s efforts to destroy its WMD stockpiles, the report says.

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