British Intelligence Chiefs Warned That Iraq War Could Increase Terrorist WMD Threat

Shortly before Operation Iraqi Freedom, British intelligence chiefs had prepared a secret assessment warning that terrorist groups would be more likely to acquire weapons of mass destruction if then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime were overthrown, according to a British parliamentary report released yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 11).

In a Feb. 10 assessment, the British Joint Intelligence Committee said there was no intelligence that Iraq had provided weapons of mass destruction to al-Qaeda. 

“Any collapse of the Iraqi regime would increase the risk of chemical and biological warfare technology or agents finding their way into the hands of terrorists,” the assessment said (Adams/Alden, Financial Times, Sept. 11).

British Prime Minister Tony Blair had told the Joint Intelligence Committee that “there was obviously a danger that in attacking Iraq you ended up provoking the very thing you were trying to avoid,” according to yesterday’s report.  He also told the committee, however, that he believed the risk of Iraq providing weapons of mass destruction to terrorists would have increased if Hussein had been allowed to remain in power.

“This is my judgment and it remains my judgment,” Blair was quoted as saying by yesterday’s report, “and I suppose time will tell whether it’s true or it’s not true.”

Yesterday’s report was issued by the House of Commons Intelligence and Security Committee, which has been conducting an inquiry into whether Blair’s office had exaggerated prewar intelligence on Iraq used in a September 2002 dossier, according to the Washington Post.  While the committee determined that the dossier had not been inflated, it did criticize the inclusion of a claim that the Iraqi military could have launched WMD attacks within 45 minutes of receiving an order to do so, the Post reported.

The 45-minute claim, “an arresting detail” that had been mentioned four times in the dossier, had referred only to “battlefield chemical and biological munitions and their movement on the battlefield, not to any other form of chemical or biological attack,” the report said.  This “should have been highlighted in the dossier,” it said.

The report also said, however, that British intelligence services were justified in continuing to support the disputed claim that Iraq had sought to obtain uranium from Niger — a claim the United States has determined to be false, according to the Post (see GSN, Aug. 11).  “We have questioned the Secret Intelligence Service about the basis of its judgment and conclude that it is reasonable,” the report said (Glenn Frankel, Washington Post, Sept. 12).

In addition, the committee also criticized in its report British Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon, saying it was “disturbed” that Hoon did not reveal during testimony that ministry staff had expressed concerns about the dossier, according to CNN.com.

Committee Chairwoman Ann Taylor said that while Hoon did not lie, he had been “potentially misleading” in his testimony.

“He did not tell us lies,” Taylor said.  “It was potentially misleading, events overtook it. ... We got the information in the end.  It is speculative (to ask) what might have happened,” she said.

The Defense Ministry “could have been more helpful,” Hoon said.  “I regret any misunderstanding,” he said (CNN.com, Sept. 11).

Bush Administration Officials Shift in Justification for War

Meanwhile, since the end of major combat operations in Iraq, senior White House officials, including President George W. Bush himself, have moved away from citing Iraqi WMD programs as a major justification for war, according to the Washington Post.

In a speech Sunday, Bush barely mentioned Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.  Instead, he linked Iraq to the war on terrorism, calling it the site of the last stand by the “enemies of freedom.”

Another senior administration official who has apparently altered is arguments is Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who leading up to war stressed the issue of Iraqi WMD efforts, according to the Post.  More recently, however, Wolfowitz has instead chosen to focus on the evils of Hussein’s regime and the new opportunity to turn Iraq into an example for the rest of the Middle East.

In an interview with the Post last week, Wolfowitz denied that the White House has altered its justification for going to war with Iraq.  He said that he and other administration officials “had been clear from the beginning” that, in addition to weapons of mass destruction, war with Iraq would provide a chance to liberate the country and to create a model of democracy for the region.

“I was often criticized for talking too much about what Iraq could become when it was liberated, and I believed it has to become,” Wolfowitz said.  “We have to win (this war), and when we win it, I believe it will advance American interests,” he said.

Some critics in Congress of the war, however, have indicated that the White House shift in focus away from weapons of mass destruction is meant to hide the fact that evidence of such weapons has yet to be found, the Post reported.

“I don’t think (Wolfowitz and other administration officials) are being forthright,” said Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), the sole Republican senator to vote against the war.  “They are using whatever argument is most marketable at any given time,” he said (Michael Dobbs, Washington Post, Sept. 12).

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Bush Administration Considering Imposing Sanctions Against Syria

Bush administration officials have said that the White House is considering imposing sanctions against Syria for providing weapons to Iraq, Newsday reported today (see GSN, Aug. 12).

All relevant U.S. agencies, except the State Department, support sanctions against Syria, Bush administration officials said, adding that Secretary of State Colin Powell is unlikely to block the measure.  In the past several years, people close to Syrian President Bashar Asad, and possibly members of his family, have shipped weapons to Iraq that may have included WMD components, the officials said. 

The House International Relations Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing next week on the Syria Accountability Act, which would make it easier for the president to impose sanctions on Syria, including a total ban on trade. 

U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton, who was ordered to refrain from making strong WMD allegations against Syria in July, is scheduled to testify (see GSN, July 16).

The White House is also considering imposing separate sanctions under the USA PATRIOT Act, according to Newsday (Timothy Phelps, Newsday, Sept. 12).

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Officials Plan International WMD Cargo Interdiction Exercise for Tomorrow

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A group of 11 nations, including the United States, is scheduled to conduct tomorrow the first in a series of interdiction training exercises held as part of a U.S.-led effort to block shipments of WMD-related cargo (see GSN, Sept. 5).

As part of the Proliferation Security Initiative, Australia, France, Japan and the United States are scheduled to hold a two-day naval interdiction exercise this weekend in the Coral Sea off the northeastern coast of Australia, a senior U.S. State Department official said Tuesday.  The “Pacific Protector” exercise will also include liaison officers from the other seven countries that are involved in the initiative — Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, the State Department official said.

A series of 10 interdiction exercises have been scheduled to occur through early next year, the official said, adding that the exercises will involve air, land and sea interdiction and will occur at various international locations.  All 11 initiative members are expected to take part in the next two planned exercises, the official said.

“All of this is intended to sharpen the operational skills of the countries involved to facilitate interdictions when the possibility for an interdiction arises,” the official said.

Representatives from initiative members are also scheduled to meet in London Oct. 9-10 to discuss several issues, including levels of support and participation and reaction to a statement of interdiction principles agreed upon during a meeting held in Paris last week, the official said.  The official added, however, that the initiative should be seen more as a counterprolfieration measure and less as an organization.

“We’ll be successful to the extent that it is operational in conducting interdictions, not to the extent that … it meets and issues communiques,” the official said.

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Parliamentary Committee Clears Blair of Deliberately Exaggerating Intelligence on Iraqi Weapons

The British Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee today ruled that Prime Minister Tony Blair’s office did not deliberately exaggerate intelligence that was contained in a September 2002 dossier on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Sept. 5).

The committee did criticize, however, the inclusion of a claim in the report that the Iraqi military could have deployed biological or chemical weapons within 45 minutes of being ordered to do so, AP reported.  The committee also said that British Defense Minister Geoff Hoon and his ministry had been “unhelpful and potentially misleading” by failing at first to reveal that some ministry analysts had expressed concerns about the dossier (Ed Johnson, Associated Press/Washington Post, Sept. 11).

The committee’s inquiry was conducted separately from another parliamentary inquiry into the apparent suicide of weapons expert David Kelly, who was the source for a BBC report that alleged that Blair’s office had “sexed up” prewar intelligence on Iraq, according to Agence France-Presse.

Some British newspapers have begun to speculate that Hoon may be forced to resign, AFP reported.

“Iraq inquiry leaves Hoon at the precipice,” said a headline in the London Independent (Agence France-Presse, Sept. 11).

U.S. Report to Answer Iraq WMD Questions, Rice Says

Meanwhile, U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said Monday that lingering questions surrounding Iraq’s former WMD capabilities would be answered in a report later this month by David Kay, a CIA representative in Iraq coordinating the search for weapons of mass destruction.

Kay, a senior official of the Iraq Survey Group, “is doing a thorough job now of putting together documentary evidence,” Rice said.  Kay’s work includes interviews with Iraqis and physical evidence to illustrate “a full picture of what has happened” to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s alleged WMD stockpiles and “the state of his (WMD) programs,” she said (U.S. Defense Department release, Sept. 10).

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Rumsfeld Avoids WMD Discussion During Iraqi Visit

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld appeared to avoid the issue of the U.S. search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq during a five-day visit last week to Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Washington Post (see GSN, Sept. 8).

Rumsfeld said he had not asked about progress in the search during a meeting Saturday with David Kay, the CIA representative coordinating the work of the Iraq Survey Group, which is conducting the search.

“I have so many things to do at the Department of Defense," Rumsfeld said.  “I made a conscious decision that I didn’t need to stay current every 15 minutes on the issue.  I literally did not ask. … I’m assuming he’ll tell me if he’d gotten something we should know,” Rumsfeld said.

The topic of the WMD search also came up during Rumsfeld’s visits with U.S. troops, according to the Post.  During one such visit in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, Rumsfeld said that the Iraq Survey group was in charge and that “I have a feeling they will, in fact, continue to work the problem.”

During a final press conference in Baghdad, Rumsfeld was asked twice about possible progress in the search, but refused to answer, the Post reported.

“I’m inclined not to,” Rumsfeld replied to a request for an example of progress in the search.  “I’ll tell you what the situation is:  The situation is that it’s an important question,” he said (Dana Priest, Washington Post, Sept. 9).

IAEA Discounts Iraqi Nuclear Program

Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohammed ElBaradei has said in a confidential report that Iraq’s nuclear weapons program would have been unable to support an active attempt to develop such weapons, according to the Associated Press.

In his report, which is expected to be reviewed by the IAEA Board of Governors this week during a meeting in Vienna, ElBaradei said U.N. weapons inspectors had found no evidence of an active nuclear weapons program before they withdrew in March.

“In the areas of uranium acquisition, concentration and centrifuge enrichment, extensive field investigation and document analysis revealed no evidence that Iraq had resumed such activities,” the report says.  “No indication of post-1991 weaponization activities was uncovered in Iraq,” it says (Associated Press/Newsday, Sept. 9).

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WMD Hunt Slowed by Uncooperative Iraqi Scientists Who Fear Prosecution, Officials Say

Bush administration and congressional officials have said the fear of possible prosecution among Iraqi scientists may be hindering U.S. efforts to search for evidence of Iraq’s suspected WMD programs, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Sept. 5).

The publicized arrests of WMD scientists have resulted in reduced cooperation from Iraqi scientists who have knowledge of such programs, sources said.  Those scientists that have been arrested have provided no information on the alleged programs, possibly fearing prosecution for their involvement, officials said.  Those scientists not in U.S. custody are afraid to come forward for fear of being jailed and prosecuted, the Post reported.

Officials are unsure as to best way to handle Iraqi scientists, according to Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), a member of the House intelligence committee who recently visited Baghdad.

“There is uncertainty about the best way” to deal with the Iraqis, Hoekstra said.  “Some (say) the role of prosecuting attorney would not be inappropriate, deciding who to negotiate a deal with so that we not let everyone get off scot-free,” he said.

Former U.N. weapons inspector David Kay, who is coordinating the Iraq Survey Group’s efforts to find Iraqi WMD programs, is expected to provide a report on the group’s progress later this month, a senior Bush administration official said.  The exact date and form of Kay’s report has not yet been determined (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Sept. 6).

Poor Accounting May Have Resulted in “Unaccounted For” Stockpiles

Meanwhile, former U.N. weapons inspectors have said that unaccounted for Iraqi WMD stockpiles may be more the result of poor record keeping, rather than deliberate attempts to hide such weapons, according to the Associated Press.

Some of the suspect stockpiles may be the result of poor accounting after Iraq destroyed biological and chemical weapons years ago, according to former U.N. inspectors.  Some of the unaccounted for weapons may be the results of miscounts, while others may have originated from exaggerated arms production reports intended to appease Iraqi leaders, AP reported.

“Under that sort of regime, you don’t admit you got it wrong,” said former U.N. chemical weapons inspector Ron Manley.

Former U.N. inspector Scott Ritter agreed that Iraqi reports on WMD production quantities were inflated.

“There was so much pressure put on scientists to produce world-class systems, they would exaggerate their reports back to authorities,” Ritter said.  Once inspectors actually visited sites and spoke with scientists, “you suddenly realized they weren’t as good as they said they were,” he said (Charles Hanley, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 7).

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China Holds North Korean WMD Expert

Chinese authorities have detained North Korean biological weapons expert Ri Chae Woo after he attempted to enter the Australian Consulate in Guangzhou to seek political asylum, an anti-North Korean activist said Saturday (see GSN, June 5).

Ri, who has evidence of North Korean human experiments, was planning to testify in the United States about Pyongyang’s biological and chemical weapons programs, said German activist Norbert Vollertsen.  Ri had worked at the Chiha-ri Chemical Corp. in the North Korean city of Anbyon until June, when he and his family fled to China, Vollertsen said.

An Australian Foreign Affairs Department spokeswoman said Canberra was unaware of the incident.

“We have no knowledge of the reported incident.  We checked with our consul general there, who has no knowledge of it either,” the spokeswoman said (Reuters, Sept. 7).

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Supergun Smuggling Trial Begins in Germany

An Iraqi-born businessman went on trial today in Germany over allegations of having violating German export control laws to help Iraq develop a “supergun” that would have been able to fire WMD shells, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 31).  Sahib Abd al-Amir al-Haddad could face up to 15 years in prison if convicted for his alleged role as the middleman in the transfer of drills to Iraq in 1999 that could have been used to construct the al-Fao cannon (Associated Press, Sept. 8).

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