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ASEAN Regional Forum Intersessional Support Group Meeting
3-5 March 1999
Bangkok
In recent years, certain country has been spending a lot of efforts in researching, developing, deploying and proliferating advanced capability theatre missile defence (TMD) systems. Not long ago, it went even further in announcing some decisions aimed at the deployment of a limited national missile defence (NMD), insisting on the amendment of the ABM Treaty, and even threatening to withdraw from that Treaty. Such moves, in essence, are aimed at supplementing its already overwhelming offensive capabilities with even more awesome defensive capabilities, and use such capabilities to reinforce its military alliances and seize the strategic advantage point in the 21st century, so as to ensure its absolute deterrence and military superiority over all the other countries. This will have wide-ranging and far-reaching negative impacts on the global stability in general and the peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region in particular.
First, the development and deployment of advanced capability TMD and NMD systems will be detrimental to the global strategic equilibrium. The ABM Treaty was the pillar of the strategic stability between the United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War, which provided the basis for their bilateral agreements on the limitation and reduction of their nuclear arsenals. After the Cold War, as the world moves towards multi-polarization, the significance of the ABM Treaty, instead of being reduced, has been further enhanced. Violating or even scrapping the Treaty, under whatever pretext, will upset the global strategic stability, thus hindering any progress of the global nuclear disarmament process. It may even result in the reversal of such a process, and touch off a new arms race.
Secondly, the proliferation of advanced capability TMD systems in north-east Asia will further aggravate the regional tension, which will not be helpful in the maintenance of peace and security in the region. The deployment of advanced capability TMD in north-east Asia is not a simple matter as strengthening the defensive capability of certain countries. It will constitute a significant enhancement of the integrated offensive and defensive capabilities of the military alliance between certain countries, to a level exceeding that maintained even during the Cold War. Today, when the Cold War is over and peace and development has become the main themes of the times, certain country on the one hand expand its military alliance in Europe, and on the other hand strengthen its military alliance in Asia-Pacific. Such tendency should be cause for serious concern among all the countries in the regions concerned. Against such backdrop, TMD is by no means purely defensive in nature. As a part of the integrated offensive and defensive capabilities, TMD poses a threat to the security of other countries. Under such circumstances, other countries concerned cannot but seriously evaluate the implications of such moves on their own security. Such developments will obviously not be conducive to the maintenance of peace and stability in north-east Asia, and will not be in the interest of any country in the region.
Thirdly, any transfer or joint development of TMD will inevitably lead to the proliferation of missile technology. Missile technologies and anti-missile technologies are convertible. Many of the technologies used in anti-missile systems can be used in the development and improvement of offensive missiles. Certain country on the one hand interferes with the normal trade and technological cooperation between other countries in the name of non-proliferation, but on the other hand proliferate missile technologies through the transfers of anti-missile systems and related technologies. This is purely a double standard, and should be a cause for serious concern by all countries.
Finally, any attempt to transfer TMD or its related technologies to Taiwan or bring Taiwan under the protection of TMD constitutes an infringement on China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and wanton interference in China’s internal affairs. It may give the separatist forces on the island a false sense of security, which may induce them onto a reckless path. This will inevitably create serious obstacles to China’s peaceful unification, and jeopardize the peace and security across the Taiwan Strait and even that of the entire north-east Asian region.
In conclusion, I wish to emphasize that the issue of missile defence system has become an important issue which has direct bearings on regional and global stability and on the security interests of many countries. The Chinese delegation is of the view that this issue, particularly the issue of development and deployment of TMD in the Asia-Pacific region, should be a major security topic which the ARF should seriously address.
This
material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin
Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of
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