China's Nuclear Stockpile and Deployments

China's Nuclear Stockpile and Deployments

According to a study of China's nuclear forces conducted by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC),

"Our best estimate is that China maintains an arsenal of about 400 warheads of two basic categories, some 250 "strategic" weapons structured in a "triad" of land-based missiles, bombers, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The emphasis of China's arsenal is primarily on the land-based missile leg of the triad. Additionally, China is thought to possess about 150 "tactical" weapons, made up of some or all of the following: low yield bombs for tactical bombardment, artillery shells, atomic demolition munitions, and possibly short range missiles."

Chinese nuclear forces are estimated to be deployed at about 20 locations and are under the control of the Central Military Commission (CMC). While China is believed to have 250 strategic nuclear weapons, only about 20 of these are deployed on missiles capable of traveling intercontinental distances; 100 are thought to be deployed on missiles and bombers with ranges from 1,800 to 4,750 kilometers. To date, China has not officially acknowledged its possession of tactical nuclear weapons and China has not discussed the qualitative or quantitative state of its nuclear arsenal. [Robert S. Norris, "Nuclear Arsenals of the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France and China: A Status Report," presented at the 5th ISODARCO Beijing Seminar on Arms Control, Chengdu, China, November 1996, p. 5. and Norris, Robert S. and William M. Arkin. "Chinese Nuclear Forces, 1999." The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. May/June 1999. p. 79.]

China has six types of operational land based nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, the DF-5/5A, DF-4, DF-3A, DF-21/21X, the DF-15, and the DF-11. China has 40 DF-3 missile launchers deployed at Jianshui, Kunming, Yidu, Tonghua, Dengshahe and Lianxiwang. However, these are being replaced by the DF-21 at the Tonghua, Jianshui and Lianxiwang sites. The DF-4 is a longer range missile deployed at Da Qaidam, Delingha, Sundian, Tongdao, and Xiao Qaidam. The DF-5A, China's longest range missile, is capable of striking targets throughout the continental United States. 18-26 of these DF-5A missiles are deployed in silos and caves at Luoning and Xuanhua. It is not currently known exactly where the DF-15 and DF-11 missiles are deployed. The new DF-31 has reportedly been deployed in southern China; there is no confirmation of this report. It is generally assumed that large numbers of ballistic missiles are deployed along the coastline in Fujian province in an effort to intimidate Taiwan.

China has only one type of operational submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the Julang-1 (JL-1). Twelve Julang-1 are deployed on China's single Xia-class ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN). The warheads for the Julang-1 are believed to be stored at the Jianggezhuang Submarine Base. China is developing a longer range SLBM known as the JL-2 which is the sea-based version of the DF-31. The JL-2 has not yet been tested from any submarines.

Warhead Designs

China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964, tested its first hydrogen weapon in 1967, began series production of nuclear weapons in 1968 and initiated production of thermonuclear weapons in 1974. Robert Norris of the NRDC estimates that China has tested and deployed six nuclear warhead designs:

a 20-40 kiloton (kT) fission gravity bomb
a 20 kT missile warhead
a 3+ megaton (MT) thermonuclear missile warhead
a 4-5 MT warhead for the DF-5 ICBM
a 3+ MT thermonuclear gravity bomb;
a 200-300 kT warhead possibly for the for the DF-31 and DF-41 and JL-2 SLBM.

China may also possess low-yield fission warheads for tactical nuclear weapons. In addition, in July 1999, the Chinese government announced that in the early 1980s it had "mastered neutron bomb design technology," but Beijing did not indicate whether it had actually produced or deployed any neutron bombs. This statement about the neutron bomb was the first time that China had publicly discussed any of its military nuclear programs. China reportedly tested an experimental 1-5 kT enhanced radiation (neutron) warhead in September 1988; this step would seem to validate the recent Chinese statement about having developed a neutron bomb. China likely developed the neutron bomb to protect against the possibility of a large Soviet invasion of the mainland during the height of the Cold War.

Command and Control

Very little is known about China's chain of command for authority over nuclear weapons. It is believed that ultimate authority to use nuclear weapons rests with the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (currently Jiang Zemin) after top leaders have reached a consensus. A decision to use nuclear weapons may also require a consensus decision within the Central Military Commission and other senior military leaders. [Bates Gill and James Mulvenon, "The Chinese Strategic Rocket Forces: Transition To Credible Deterrence," unpublished study presented at China and Weapons of Mass Destruction, a seminar sponsored by the National Intelligence Council, November 1999.]

China is believed to store most of its nuclear warheads and bombs separate from its delivery vehicles and the warheads and bombs are only mated with the missiles or aircraft during launch preparations. In this sense, China's nuclear forces are not on alert. Also, China may have central storage locations for its missile warheads and gravity bombs which are accessible by a number of missile and bomber bases. [Robert S. Norris, "French And Chinese Nuclear Weapon Testing," Security Dialogue, March 1996, pp. 49-50; Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume 5, pp. 326, 358; Richard W. Fieldhouse, Chinese Nuclear Weapons, p. 16; Viktor Vasilyevich Stefashin, Mirovaya Ekonomika (Moscow), 19 August 1995, in "Chinese Nuclear Strategy And National Security," FBIS-UMA-95-206-S, 25 October 1995.]

Arsenal Size

Only a few US government sources has discussed the size of China's nuclear arsenal. In the Pentagon's November 1997 report entitled, Proliferation: Threat and Response, the US Defense Department stated: China has over 100 nuclear warheads deployed operationally on ballistic missiles while additional warheads are in storage. In addition, a classified CIA study reportedly stated that 13 of China's 18 DF-5A ICBMs are targeted at the United States while the remaining five are targeted at countries closer to China. ["China targets nukes at U.S.", The Washington Times, 1 May 1998.] Yet, this targeting strategy may have changed after the US and China signed a "non-targeting agreement" in June 1998 in which each side promised not to target its missiles at the other.

As for future deployments, in testimony before the Senate Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation, and Federal Services, National Intelligence Officer Robert Walpole stated, "By 2015, China will likely have tens of missiles targeted against the United States, having added a few tens of more survivable land- and sea-based mobile missiles with smaller nuclear warheads. . ." Another analyst, Ming Zhang, agrees. He writes that "Ten years down the road. . . the Chinese nuclear arsenal. . . may grow from today's 20 ICBMs (with warhead yields in the megaton range) to perhaps 50 or 100 ICBMs with multiple warheads with yields in the kilotons." [Ming Zhang, "What Threat," The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists," September/October 1999, Vol. 55, No. 5. p.54-55. ]

CHINA'S CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENAL - STOCKPILE, DELIVERY SYSTEMS, AND DEPLOYMENTS

System Name [US desig-nation in brackets]	Year	Range and Payload	Nuclear Delivery Capability	Number of Systems and Warheads Deployed	Comments
DF-3/3A [CSS-2]	1971	2850 km 2150 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 1-5 MT (3.3 MT)	40 missiles (one warhead per missile)	120-150 minute launch prep. time; road-mobile; reportedly deployed on 40 refire-capable launchers at six field garrisons and launch complexes; being phased out and replaced by DF-21/21A
DF-4 [CSS-3]	1980	4850-5500 km 2200 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 1-5 MT (3.3 MT)	20 missiles (one warhead per missile)	60-120 minute launch prep. time; also used as booster for CZ-1 SLV; cave-based and rolled out to launch; will likely be replaced by DF-31 missiles after 2010
DF-5/5A [CSS-4]	1981	13000+ km 3200 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 1-5 MT (4-5 MT)	18-26 single warhead missile (estimates vary)	30-60 minute launch prep. time; also used as booster for CZ-2, CZ-3, CZ-4 SLVs; deployed in silos at 3 locations; longer range Mod 2 to replace Mod 1 by 2005
DF-21/21A [CSS-5]	1988	1700-1800 km 600 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 200-300 kT	48 missiles (one warhead per missile)	10-15 minute launch prep. time; same missile as the JL-1 SLBM; deployed in areas close to China's borders; replacing DF-3 in some areas on converted DF-3 launchers; new model has greater range and accuracy through GPS and a "radio-frequency" explosive warhead
DF-15/ M-9 [CSS-6]		600 km 950 kg (500 kg)	Single nuclear warhead, 50-350 kT	300 missiles (estimate)	30 minute launch prep. time; nuclear role for CSST-600 is as yet unproven; deployed along China's east coast to target Taiwan; M-9 version designed explicitly for export; enhancing accuracy with GPS technology
DF-11/M-11 [CSS-X-7]		280 km 800 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 350 kT	200 missiles (estimate)	30-45 minute launch prep. time; M-11 version designed explicitly for export
JL-1 SLBM [CSS-N-3]	1986	2150 km 600 kg	Single nuclear warhead, 250 kT (500 kT)	12 missiles on one Xia-class submarine	Same missile as the DF-21/21A
Hong-6 (H-6) bomber [B-6]	1965	3100 km 4500 kg	One to three nuclear bombs, 10 kT-3 MT per bomb	120 aircraft; China is believed to have a stockpile of 150 nuclear gravity bombs for its aircraft	Redesign of Soviet Tu-26 Badger
Qian-5A (Q-5A) attack aircraft [A-5A]	1970	400 km 1500 kg	One nuclear bomb, 10 kT-3 MT	30 aircraft; China is believed to have a stockpile of 150 nuclear gravity bombs for its aircraft	Redesign of Soviet MiG-19
Tactical warheads [possibly including artillery shells, rockets, atomic demolition munitions (ADMs)]	mid-1970s		Low kT		150 warheads in storage

"DF" stands for "Dong Feng" ("East Wind")
"JL" stands for "Julang" ("Giant Wave")
"CSS" stands for "Chinese Surface-to-Surface"
"CSS-N" stands for "Chinese Surface-to-Surface Naval"
"CSST" stands for "Chinese Surface-to-Surface Tactical"

H stands for "Hong" (bomber)
Q stands for "Qian" (fighter/attack aircraft)
B designates bomber aircraft; A designates attack aircraft

[Sources: John W. Lewis and Hua Di, "China's Ballistic Missile Programs: Technologies, Strategies, Goals," International Security, Fall 1992, pp. 9-11; Mirovaya Ekonomika Mezhdunarodnyye Otnosheniya (Moscow), 19 August 1995, pp. 35-46, in "Chinese Nuclear Strategy And National Security," FBIS-UMA-95-206-S, 25 October 1995; Bates Gill, "Determinants And Directions For Chinese Weapons Imports," The Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No. 2 1995, p. 374; "Report: China Upgrading Short-Range Missile Systems," CNN World News, 11 July 1997; Bill Gertz, "New Chinese Missiles Target All of East Asia," Washington Times, 10 July 1997, p. 1; Bates Gill, James Mulvenon, Mark Stokes. “The Chinese Second Artillery Corps: Transition to Credible Deterrence,” in The People’s Liberation Army as an Organization: Reference Volume v1.0.” Ed: James C. Mulvenon, Andrew N.D. Yang. 2001. Page 548-9. Available at: http://www.rand.org/publications/CF/CF182/CF182.ch11.pdf; Phillip Saunders and Jing-Dong Yuan, “China’s Strategic Force Modernization: Three Scenarios and Their Implications for the United States,” Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2003, forthcoming; Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, July 12, 2002, p. 27. Available at: http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2002/d20020712china.pdf]

CHINA'S ESTIMATED NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE: 1964-1998

YEAR	# WARHEADS TOTAL
1964	1
1965	5
1966	20
1967	25
1968	35
1969	50
1970	75
1971	100
1972	130
1973	150
1974	170
1975	185
1976	190
1977	200
1978	220
1979	235
1980	280
1981	330
1982	360
1983	380
1984	415
1985	425
1986	425
1987	415
1988	430
1989	435
1990	435
1991	435
1992	435
1993	435
1994	435
1995	425
1996	400
1997	400
1998	400
1999	400
2000	400
2001	400
2002	400

[Sources: "Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-1997," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 1997, p. 67; "Estimated Nuclear Stockpiles 1945-1993," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 1993, p. 57; Robert S. Norris, Andrew S. Burrows, and Richard W. Fieldhouse, British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume V (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994), p. 359; Robert S. Norris, "Nuclear Arsenals of the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France and China: A Status Report," Presented at the 5th ISODARCO Beijing Seminar on Arms Control, Chengdu, China, November 1996; "Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-2002," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2002.]

CHINA'S ESTIMATED TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE

The Chinese government has not, to date, officially confirmed its possession of tactical nuclear weapons.

YEAR	# TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
1972	0
1975	5
1978	30
1981	75
1984	120
1987	135
1990	150
1993	150

[Sources: Robert S. Norris, Andrew S. Burrows, and Richard W. Fieldhouse, British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume V (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994), p. 359; in Gregory B. Owens, "Chinese Tactical Nuclear Weapons," Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, June 1996, p. 4.]

For more on China's nuclear deployments, see:

[CHINA'S BALLISTIC MISSILE DESIGNATIONS AND CHARACTERISTICS]

[CHINA'S BOMBER AND DCA DESIGNATIONS AND CHARACTERISTICS]

[CHINA'S NUCLEAR SUMBARINE PROGRAM]

[CHINA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS MODERNIZATION] (See especially [CHINA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS DELIVERY SYSTEM MODERNIZATION])

[SECOND ARTILLERY CORPS]

Last updated: 06/27/2003

This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2007 by MIIS.