Abstract:
Among the questions raised by Israel's raid on the Iraqi nuclear reactor, one conclusion stands out: Iraq gave every appearance of being interested in eventually obtaining nuclear weapons. Although it is not clear if Iraq would have been able to assemble a bomb soon, the country had been assembling the necessary components and materials that were not under international safeguards.

Iraq said its reactor complex was for peaceful research purpose only, but Israel countered that the size of the Osirak facility is too big for a research facility. Iraq further said that as a signatory to the NPT, it is committed to not making nuclear weapons, and furthermore, the country permits IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities. But other signs indicated that Iraq wanted to develop the bomb. Iraq did not sign an armistice agreement with Israel after the 1948 Arab-Israel war; both countries continue to be technically in a state of war. Iraq does not recognize the existence of Israel. Iraqi leaders have repeatedly proclaimed to the world media, "Arabs must get an atom bomb." Being an oil-rich state, Iraq does not require nuclear energy. Despite French efforts to convince Iraq to accept non-weapons-grade uranium for its reactor, it opted for highly enriched uranium. Iraq also contracted with an Italian firm for highly radioactive material - a "hot lab" that can be used to reprocess spent uranium fuel to separate plutonium.

There are two routes to make a nuclear weapon-uranium or plutonium. However, the Osirak reactor did not give Iraq an easy method of producing bomb-grade plutonium. Scientists point out that in either the plutonium or uranium route, the construction of a bomb is tricky and time-consuming, and probably well beyond the capacity of Iraqi scientists for some years to come. The Israelis believe, however, that Iraq could hire scientific mercenaries or get technological support from sympathetic countries like Pakistan.

Israeli Prime Minister Begin said the raid had to be conducted now because Israeli intelligence reports indicated the Osirak reactor could go into operation as early as 1 July 1981. After that it would be impossible to bomb the reactor without threatening Baghdad's population with radiation. On 16 June 1981, Israeli chief of military intelligence Yehoshua Saguy said he had information the Iraqis planned to inaugurate the reactor on 17 June, their national day. However, French technicians who were installing the reactor said the reactor was scheduled to be operational only by the end 1981. Other sources cited the internal dynamics of Israeli politics as a reason for the timing of the strike.