Abstract:
Note: This article includes a detailed history of Egypt's nuclear program. ..... Egyptian nuclear scientists contend that Egypt has the expertise and raw materials to enrich U-235 or produce Pu-241 in order to make a nuclear explosive device. However, given Egypt's failure to build a credible nuclear program and the country's current call to ban weapons of mass destruction (WMD) from the Middle East, "Egypt has no nuclear option in the foreseeable future."

In 1956, Egypt's nuclear program began with the installation of a U.S. radioisotope laboratory at Egypt's National Research Centre. Egyptian requests to the Soviet Union for a nuclear reactor and uranium yielded a Soviet pledge to build an experimental 4 MW reactor and a nuclear physics laboratory. In 1961, a Soviet-built Van de Graf type 4 MW reactor at Inshas became operational. Although Inshas continues to manufacture radioisotopes for scientific and medical research projects, it has no known plutonium production capability.

Energy shortages and reports of an Israeli nuclear program prompted a push for nuclear development in the 1960s. U.S. and German companies placed bids for a 150 MW plant, ostensibly to desalinate sea water at Brog el- Arab, Egypt. The project was abandoned when relations with the West declined and Western banks refused to provide the necessary financing.

In 1970, Egypt signed but did not ratify the NPT. Rumors of an Israeli nuclear bomb pushed Egypt to seek aid from China, but China refused to assist Egypt's nuclear program. A U.S.-Egypt rapprochement following the October 1973 War brought new promises of U.S. nuclear assistance, but Israel's refusal to abide by inspection procedures killed a U.S. initiative to provide nuclear aid simultaneously to both Egypt and Israel.

In January 1975, Egypt announced that it would sign an agreement with the Soviet Union for a 460 MW reactor. In November 1975, the U.S. offered to renegotiate its contract, leading to a joint statement specifying prerequisites for the sale of U.S. nuclear reactors to Egypt, including the condition that plutonium from U.S. reactors and U.S.-origin fuel be reprocessed outside of Egypt. This agreement was postponed when U.S. inspection measures proved too intrusive for Egypt.

A subsequent deal to purchase a 1,000 MW reactor from France floundered because Egypt had not ratified the NPT. In 1981, Egypt ratified the treaty, prompting individual agreements with France, the U.S., and West Germany for the purchase of two nuclear reactors and the supply of fuel and technical expertise. The agreements collapsed due to a lack of funding from the U.S. Import-Export bank, fear of dependence on the West, high costs and, in the wake of Chornobyl, potential environmental hazards. Offers of U.S. aid to construct conventional power stations resulted in the indefinite suspension of the Egyptian nuclear program.