Issue Brief

Russia's Nuclear Doctrine
Dr. Nikolai Sokov, Senior Research Associate
Center for Nonproliferation Studies
October 1999 (revised July 2004)

Introduction
Russia's 2000 National Security Concept: The Nuclear Angle
Russia's 2000 Military Doctrine
The Nuclear Debate of Summer 2000
Russian Ministry of Defense 2003 Policy Paper: The Nuclear Angle
Significant Military Maneuvers

Significant Military Maneuvers

Inevitably, key doctrinal documents, such as the National Security Concept, the Military Doctrine, or the October 2003 "White Paper" issued by the Ministry of Defense, are of very general nature. They provide broad guidelines on military posture and the use of force, but are usually short on details. As a rule, additional information could be gleaned from military maneuvers, whose patterns offer important insights into the anticipated conflict scenarios and the planned responses to different types of attack.

During the 1990s, Russian military maneuvers (or, at least, the publicly available information about them) yielded little useful information because maneuvers were few and small-scale. When the use of nuclear weapons was simulated, this usually happened independently of general purpose forces and without relationship to specific scenarios. In addition, the shaping of views on possible future conflicts and the ways of fighting them takes time. The situation began to change in 1999. On the one hand, a string of conflicts in the Balkans, especially the war in Kosovo in the spring of 1999, provided the likely scenarios that the Russian military deemed most dangerous. On the other hand, the defense budget began to grow as Russia began to emerge from the 1998 financial meltdown and the general economic situation started to improve. Significant reduction of the Armed Forces allowed the reallocation of funds from personnel support to training.

Since 1999, the Russian military has regularly conducted large-scale maneuvers that played out several conflict scenarios, including those that involved the use of nuclear weapons. As a result, many maneuvers held in the last five years allow important insights into the doctrinal and operational details that are absent from key documents. Below is a brief review of the more important exercises conducted since 1999. Their typical features could be summarized as follows.

Every scenario that involved the use of nuclear weapons (at least, every scenario that reconstructed from open sources) played out a variation of a "regional war" (according to the classification of the Military Doctrine) - the lowest-level conflict to allow the use of nuclear weapons. Apparently all of them assumed participation of nuclear-weapons state(s), first and foremost the United States (in one case nuclear-capable long-range aircraft was used in Central Asia, but whether they simulated the use of nuclear or conventional weapons remained unclear). Early maneuvers (1999-2002) concentrated on air attacks following U.S. military campaigns in the Balkans, especially in Kosovo in 1999; recent maneuvers added the experience of the war in Iraq in 2003. No later than in 2001 defense against tactical ballistic missiles was introduced as well. In many instances Russian forces trained for disruption of enemy satellite links to break down communications, coordination, and targeting (this element was probably present in all or the majority of maneuvers, but went unreported). Since 2002 scenarios have included simulations of large-scale attack by enemy ground forces; in these cases defense included a call-up of reserves and transfer of ground troops between theaters of operations.
The use of nuclear weapons usually took place at a relatively late stage of maneuvers and was associated with two situations. First, several days after an intense air defense campaign, when, according to the scenario, Russian troops exhausted their ability to withstand the assault. The second situation involved a large-scale combined air and ground attack, which required the call-up of reserves (fitting the definition of a "regional war" - the standing army is insufficient for defense and a transfer of troops from other military districts becomes necessary); nuclear weapons entered the picture also after several days of fighting with conventional forces. Call-up of reserves can be regarded as a reliable indicator of when the nuclear threshold is about to be crossed; in the case of an exclusively air campaign the threshold was less clear.
The weapon of choice for limited use of nuclear weapons was in all cases heavy and medium bombers (Tu-95MS, Tu-160, and Tu-22M3) using long-range cruise missiles and short-range weapons. In recent years, the same platforms were used to deliver both nuclear and precision-guided conventional weapons. The apparent number of nuclear weapons used in each case was small - less than ten. The usual choice of targets was the following: (1) airbases and other military installations in European NATO countries involved in the simulated attack against Russia and, in at least one case, in Japan; (2) undisclosed targets in the continental United States (launched either from the vicinity of Iceland or from the North-East of Russia); (3) naval targets - aircraft carrier groups in the Pacific Ocean and the Baltic Sea, as well as in the Indian Ocean and the Black Sea, once each; (4) in 2003 one other class of ground targets was added - those in the Indian Ocean (presumably, the U.S. base on Diego Garcia).
Land- and sea-based strategic missiles participated in most, but not every large-scale exercise. It has remained unclear whether they were integrated into scenarios or maneuvers were simply used as a backdrop for training launches. It appears that in some cases they were probably an integral part and were intended to simulate limited strikes, perhaps against targets in the continental United States.

A fairly stable pattern of maneuvers during the period of 1999-2004 demonstrated that limited use of nuclear weapons is now firmly integrated into a rather broad range of scenarios of possible conflicts. Virtually any large-scale attack by forces that are numerically and qualitatively superior to the Russian Armed Forces risks crossing the nuclear threshold. A broader view suggests several more important observations, however:

Russian Armed Forces apparently ceased training for a global war that involves a massive exchange with nuclear strikes - a scenario common during the Cold War. Implicitly, the capability for a large-scale strike remains an available option, but, true to all the doctrinal documents since 1993, such conflict is regarded as a very low probability;
the United States is considered the most dangerous opponent and apparently the likelihood that the United States might threaten - whether openly or indirectly - to use force against Russia to achieve certain political goals is still regarded as high, especially among the military;
There has been a remarkably low emphasis on low-intensity conflicts that involve diffuse fighting against paramilitary and guerilla forces. It is possible that the Russian military simply does not see this kind of training necessary in the view of the ongoing war in Chechnya. Regardless, the skew toward "regional wars" appears an important drawback, especially since dependence on nuclear weapons inadvertently increases.

Summer 1999: West-99 (Zapad-99) Maneuvers

West-99 maneuvers were conducted a few months after a crucial April 1999 meeting of the Security Council. Held shortly after the beginning of the war in Kosovo, that meeting apparently initiated the development of a new military doctrine designed to deter limited use of force against Russia. By all indications, the West-99 maneuvers were designed to test a doctrinal innovation - limited use of nuclear weapons for the purposes of deterring a limited conventional attack or, if deterrence failed, for deescalating the conflict and returning the status quo ante.

From the start, official Russian military representatives claimed that the West-99 maneuvers had no relationship to the war in Kosovo (they had been planned well before that war, in late 1998) and that they did not involve simulated use of nuclear weapons.[49] Only after the end of the maneuvers Minister of Defense Igor Sergeyev admitted that the intention was, indeed, to test defense against an attack against Russia that was similar in style and scale to the war in Kosovo and that an important element of these maneuvers was demonstration of the ability and the willingness to use nuclear weapons under conditions when "all means of resistance have been exhausted," i.e., when conventional forces are unable to repel the attack on their own.[50]

The scenario included three stages. In the first stage (June 21-22), the alert status of troops in all Western military districts was enhanced and troops in Leningrad military district were transferred to full combat mode. In the second stage (June 22-25), Russian troops and the Baltic fleet together with the Byelorussian army defended against an attack from the West. That attack included a strike with 450 aircraft and 120 cruise missiles against the territory of Belarus and with 110 aircraft and 40 cruise missiles against Kaliningrad oblast. In the final stage (June 25-26), Russian troops repelled the attack and returned the situation to the status quo ante; that stage included simulated use of nuclear weapons. Primary attention was paid to Kaliningrad exclave - a piece of Russian territory between Poland and Lithuania widely considered Russia's "Achille's heel" as it is the part of the country most difficult to defend. According to the scenario, troops in Kaliningrad oblast and the Baltic fleet were supposed to repel the attack without reinforcements.[51]

The "nuclear component" included simulated strikes with air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) from heavy bombers from "around the corner" - a Russian Air Force slang, which denotes a flight toward the northern tip of Norway and then a turn left toward the north Atlantic, and represented a typical training and combat mission in Soviet times. Two Tu-95MS heavy bombers undertook a 15-hour flight "around the corner" toward Iceland, where they simulated the launch of ALCMs against U.S. territory. Simultaneously, two Tu-160 heavy bombers took a similar route, but simulated ALCM launches against continental Europe from near the northern tip of Norway. According to newspaper reports, their targets were airbases in Poland and the Baltic states (it was assumed that the territory of these countries was used by NATO), Norway, as well as aircraft carrier groups in the Barents Sea. Upon their return to the Russian territory, heavy bombers conducted live launches against test ranges in southern Russia.[52]

Following the end of the West-99 maneuvers, deputy chief of the General Staff, Yuriyy Baluyevski, told reporters that not only aggressors, but also countries, whose territory is used for an aggression would become potential targets [53] in a clear reference to the relevant provision of the Military Doctrine that allows the use of nuclear weapons not only against nuclear states and their allies, but also states that attack Russia "in concert with" nuclear states.

In September 1999, smaller-scale maneuvers were conducted in the Far East. The main purpose of these maneuvers was compatible with West-99: the Pacific fleet and the Long-Range Air Force simulated defense from and strikes against aircraft carrier groups.[54]

Sources:
[49] "Strategicheskiye Komandno-Shtabnyye Ucheniya Proidut na Territoriyakh Dvukh Voyennykh Okrugov," Interfax, June 15, 1999; Sergey Sokut, Oleg Ternovski, "Nashi Letchiki Nanosyat 'Udary po NATO'," Nezavisimaya gazeta, June 25, 1999.
[50] "Na Ucheniyakh 'Zapad-99' Otrabatyvalos Uslovnoye Primeneniye Yadernogo Oruzhiya," Interfax, July 9, 1999; Vladimir Georgiyev, "Dve Nedeli Nazad Rossiya Primenila Yadernoye Oruzhiye," Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 10, 1999.
[51] Yuriyy Golotyuk, "Dan Prikaz Emu na Zapad," Izvestiya, June 22, 1999.
[52] "V Ramkakh Uchenii 'Zapad-99' Rossiiskiye Letchiki Proveli Uspeshnyye Puski Raket po Nazemnym Tselyam," Interfax, June 23, 1999; Igor Korotchenko, "Rossiiskaya Armiya Gotovitsya k Otrazheniyu Agressii," Nezavisimaya gazeta, June 23, 1999; Sergey Sokut, Oleg Ternovski, "Nashi Letchiki Nanosyat 'Udary po NATO'," Nezavisimaya gazeta, June 25, 1999; Alexander Koretskiy, "Rossiya Nanesla Yadernyi Udar po SShA," Segodnya, July 2, 1999; Dana Priest, "Russian Bombers Make Foray to Iceland," Washington Post, July 1, 1999, p. 1.
[53] Yuriy Golotuyk, "Premiera Minoborony na 'Zapadnom Teatre'," Izvestiya, June 29, 1999.
[54] Valeri Aleksin, "Samolyoty i Rakety Nad Okeanom," Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 15, 1999.

April 2000

April 2000 Air Force maneuvers were relatively small-scale. They simulated defense against strikes by land- and carrier-based aircraft. These maneuvers were conducted in the southwest of Russia between the Black and the Caspian seas and included strikes against land and sea targets. In addition to tactical aircraft, Tu-22M3 medium bombers (classified in Russia as long-range or strategic) played a prominent role, as well as Tu-95MS and Tu-160 heavy bombers, which for the first time conducted launches of conventional long-range Kh-101 ALCMs. Maneuvers also included the use of S-300 anti-aircraft and tactical anti-missile systems.[55,56,57,58,59]

Sources:
[55]Ivan Safronov, "Yugoslavskie Uroki Rossiiskikh VVS," Kommersand-Daily, April 18, 2000.
[56]Sergey Sokut, "Razvorot v Yuzhnom Napravlenii," Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, April 21, 2000.
[57]Sergey Sokut, "Strategii Letyat na Yug," Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 18, 2000.
[58]Olga Bozhieva and Vyacheslav Martunuyk, "S-300 Protiv Tu-22," Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, May 19, 2000.
[59]Sergey Balashov, "U 'Dalnikov' Khoroshie Perspektivy," Krasnaya zvezda, April 24, 2000.

September 2000

In early September 2000, the Russian strategic Air Force participated in a large air defense exercise that included armies of Central Asian states, Armenia, and Belarus. Tu-95MS, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers flew missions in the vicinity of the Black and Caspian seas, as well as in the west of Russia. Launches of cruise missiles were conducted in the north of Russia by Tu-95MS and in the south by Tu-22M3. These maneuvers had several distinguishing features that set them aside from earlier exercises, including West-99:

According to Chief Instructor-Pilot of the 37th Air Army (the "home" of strategic bombers) Maj.-Gen. Vasiliy Malashchitskiy, this was the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union that long-range Air Force units simulated combat missions over the Black sea;
Anti-naval component: Russian Air Force simulated attacks on carrier groups;
11 heavy bombers (eight Tu-160 and three Tu-95MS), which had been acquired from Ukraine in 2000, for the first time participated in maneuvers;
For the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russian strategic bombers were temporarily based in the territory of Belarus;
Heavy bombers trained for other temporary basing options - forward bases in the north of Russia (Vorkuta, Tiksi, Anadyr); all these bases can potentially be used for strikes against U.S. territory.[60,61,62,63,64]

Sources:
[60]Vladimir Mukhin, "Na Prostorakh SNG - Voennye Ucheniya," Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 8, 1999.
[61]Anatoliy Dokuchayev, "Novaya Formula Udara," Krasnaya zvezda, October 11, 2000.
[62]"Strategi Otbombilis," Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, September 15, 2000.
[63]Yuriyy Golotyuk, "Belorusskii Front," Vremya novostey, January 16, 2001.
[64]Sergey Sokut, "Kurs na Lokalnyye Konflikty," Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, February 8, 2001.

February 2001

During a "strategic command and staff training" conducted February 13-16, long-range Air Force units performed missions in the north of Russia ("around the corner" mission around Norway toward the North Atlantic, reaching the distance for launches against U.S. territory) and in the Far East close to Japan; these flights apparently simulated strikes against U.S. bases in Japan. Japanese authorities filed a formal protest, accusing Russian aircraft of violating their country's airspace. After that, heavy and medium bombers performed traditional live launches in the south of Russia. As part of maneuvers, Strategic Rocket Forces launched a Topol ICBM from Plesetsk test range; this launch was conducted by a crew from the division where that missile had been deployed rather than the test range personnel. Almost simultaneously, a strategic submarine launched an SLBM (type not reported) from the Barents sea. According to unofficial reports, launches of the ICBM and the SLBM were synchronized with live ALCM launches in the south of Russia; this allowed the early warning systems to be tested.

According to unofficial assessments, activities of strategic forces, both air- and land-based, simulated limited use of nuclear weapons under conditions when a limited conventional conflict gets out of control and escalates. An American estimate (with references to a National Security Agency report) suggested that in the Far East Russian strategic forces simulated interference into a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan on the side of China. According to that estimate, the Russian scenario supposedly began with a Chinese attack against Taiwan, followed by the use of American naval and ground forces, after which Russia threatened nuclear strikes against U.S. forces in the region, including in South Korea and Japan. According to that report, the scenario in the western part of Russia assumed the now-traditional scenario of a NATO attack that had been practiced in several earlier maneuvers. None of Russian open sources mentioned the "Taiwan scenario;" all of them referred only to an attack against Russia itself.[65,66,67,68,69]

Sources:
[65]Yuriy Golotuyk, "I v Vozdukhe Tozhe Problemy," Vremya novostey, February 19, 2001.
[66]"Strategicheskaya Komandno-Shtabnaya Trenirovka VS Rossii," Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 17, 2001.
[67]Sergey Grigoriyev, "Rossiya Pobedila," Nezavisimoe voyennoye obozreniye, February 28, 2001.
[68]Alexander Golts, "Sovershenno Sekretnyi Sabotazh," Itogi, February 28, 2001, p. 14-15.
[69]Bill Gertz, "Russian Forces Help China in Mock Conflict," Washington Times, April 30, 2001, p. 1.

April 2001

The next "command and staff training" took place less than two months later and was primarily devoted to air defense. It was part of larger maneuvers "Yuzhnyi Shchit Sodruzhestva-2001" ("The Southern Shield of the Commonwealth-2001"). According to Chief of the Air Force Anatoli Kornukov, these maneuvers featured the largest number of long-range bomber sorties in the previous three years. Russian long-range bombers (two medium Tu-22M3 and two heavy Tu-95MS) again landed in Belarus. That mission was used to test the air defense in the west of Russia and in Belarus; the routes of these bombers were intended to simulate likely attack routes of NATO aircraft. Similar raids were also conducted in Central Asia over Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Practice bombing with high-yield gravity bombs FAB-3000, which had not been used since the war in Afghanistan, was conducted by Tu-22M3 at a test range in Saratov oblast near the main basing site of heavy bombers. Subsequently, Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 bombers conducted practice launches of Kh-55 long-range and Kh-22 short-range cruise missiles, accordingly, in Kazakhstan. Newspaper reports hinted at a possible relationship between these launches in the unstable situation in Afghanistan. Toward the end of the maneuvers, Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers also made raids toward Alaska in what American officials described as routine annual springtime maneuvers, closely skirting American airspace.[70,71,72,73]

Sources:
[70]Sergey Babichev, "Shchit u Sodruzhestva Prochen," Krasnaya zvezda, April 7, 2001.
[71]Dmitriy Vladimirov, "Osobennosti Natsionalnogo Bombometaniya," Izvestiya, April 10, 2001.
[72]Boris Talov, "Pokazatelnaya Bombezhka s Pritselom na Obshchuyu Bezopasnost," Rossiiskaya gazeta, April 6, 2001.
[73]"Russian Bombers Skirt U.S. Airspace off Alaska," Washington Post, April 30, 2001, p. 5.

September 2001

Maneuvers to simulate defense against a large-scale airspace attack began on September 10. According to Chief of the Air Force Anatoli Kornukov, they were intended to cover the whole Arctic, as well as northern parts of the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans, including, specifically, the vicinity of Norway, Iceland, the United States, Canada, and Great Britain. The main task was reportedly to penetrate air defense of NATO and North America (NORAD). As part of the exercise, long-range bombers were moved to auxiliary bases in Anadyr, Tiksi, and Vorkuta. A new element of these maneuvers was, according to newspaper reports, training for the use of long-range ALCMs outside the reach of NORAD (since Russia has had long-range nuclear ALCMs since the 1980s, apparently these reports meant conventional ALCMs, which began to appear in Russian Armed Forces only in the late 1990s). The only real launches planned in these regions involved short-range missiles launched from Tu-22M3 over Kamchatka Peninsula in a simulated attack against an aircraft carrier group.

The plan was abruptly changed immediately after news of terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, DC on September 11, 2001 reached Moscow. To avoid possible complications and misperceptions, the Air Force terminated all "practical activities" planned for the ongoing maneuvers following a request from the United States. This included a termination of flights not only toward U.S. territory, but also "around the corner" toward Norway and Iceland. Launches of short-range ALCMs from five Tu-22M3 bombers (three belonging to the Naval Air Command and two from the Air Force) over Kamchatka against seaborne targets were still conducted, but only within Russian territorial waters. Also, both heavy and medium bombers practiced missile launches at an internal Russian test range near the Caspian sea.[74,75,76,77,78]

Sources:
[74]Yuriy Golotuyk, "Bombardirovshchiki Letyat na Vraga," Vremya novostey, September 11, 2001.
[75]Yuriy Golotuyk, "Yadernyi Konflikt Otstavit," Vremya novostey, September 12, 2001.
[76]"Pod Saratovom Nachalis Ucheniya Dalnei Aviatsii," RIA Novosti, September 13, 2001.
[77]Ivan Safronov, "Rossiiskaya Dalnyaya Aviatsiya Uletela Nedaleko," Kommersant-Daily, September 15, 2001.
[78]"Na Kamchatke Zavershilis Komandno-Shtabnye Ucheniya Tikhookeanskogo Flota," Kommersant-Daily, September 19, 2001.

February 2002

These maneuvers were dubbed a "compensation" for the cancellation of Strategic Air Force maneuvers in September 2001. The scenario was changed, however: instead of flight routes toward U.S. territory and Europe, this time Russian long-range bombers simulated attacks against targets to the south of Russian border consistent with the plans (developed in the mid-1990s) of defeating possible incursion of Islamic extremists from Afghanistan to Central Asia. Activities of the Air Force were closely coordinated with the 201st Russian division deployed in Tajikistan. It is possible that earlier plans were cancelled in part out of a desire to reemphasize U.S.-Russian cooperation in the fight against international terrorism. It is difficult to determine whether U.S. bases, which appeared in Central Asia in the end of 2001, figured in the exercises.

Russia soon departed from the practice of demonstrative restraint, and in April Russian heavy bombers performed the now-routine flights toward U.S. airspace near Alaska. Some observers attributed that change in behavior to the American decision to withdraw from the ABM Treaty.[79,80]

Sources:
[79]Yuriy Golotuyk, "Bombardirovshchiki Letyat na Yug," Vremya novostey, Febraury 14, 2002;
[80]Marina Kalashnikova, "Soglasny ne Soglashatsya," Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 29, 2002.

June-July 2002

Public reports did not mention the participation of nuclear-capable delivery vehicles in maneuvers that took place in June-July, 2002, but the event was interesting in many respects. For the first time since the 1980s, the Russian army simulated the call-up of reserves, the rapid transfer of reservists from the European part of Russia to Siberia, and then, using these troops, to repel an external aggression. According to the Military Doctrine, the call-up of reserves takes place during regional and large-scale wars, i.e., the types of conflicts that are associated with use of nuclear weapons.[81]

Sources:
[81]Yuriy Golotuyk, "Ot Taigi do Yaponskikh Morei," Vremya novostey, June 24, 2002.

August 2002

Large-scale maneuvers in the Caspian sea did not involve nuclear-capable delivery vehicles, but they were held in a strategically important region, which is widely considered a hotbed of tension and an area of possible conflict, including that between Russia and the United States. On the surface, these exercises simulated the use of special forces against terrorists who captured an oil rig. The scale of maneuvers was considerably greater, however: 10,500 personnel, 60 ships, and more than 30 aircraft. According to many independent assessments, Russia intended to show muscle and assert its dominant role in the region.[82,83,84,85,86]

Sources:
[82]Sergey Sokut, "Voennye Vozvrashchayutsya na Kaspii,' Nezavisimoye voyennoe obozreniye, August 16, 2002;
[83]Tatiana Koroleva, "Voprosy Bezopasnosti Kaspiiskogo Regiona Otrabatyvalis vo Vremya Uchenii 'More Mira-2002'," Panorama (Almaty, [84]Kazakhstan), August 16, 2002;
[84]Igor Plugatarev, "Kto Est Kto na Kaspii," Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 1, 2002;
[85]Nikolai Lubyanskii, "Sbor-Pokhod na Kaspii," Nezavisimoye voyennoe obozreniye, August 2, 2002;
[86]Rosa Tsvetkova, " Na Kaspii Rossiya Perekhodit ot Voennoi Teorii k Praktike," Strana.ru, August 8, 2002 (http://www.strana.ru).

October 2002

In October 2002 Russia conducted unprecedented large-scale launches of strategic weapons: a sea-launched ballistic missile from Okhotsk Sea launched against a target on the Kola Peninsula (a highly unusual trajectory for Russian test launches); a Topol (SS-25) from a road-mobile launcher; a SS-N-18 SLBM from a Delta III submarine, ALCMs launched from two Tu-160 and two Tu-95MS heavy bombers against targets in the Volga region and in the north of Russia. All ballistic missiles were launched within one hour. According to unofficial assessments, the exercises tested Russia's ability to conduct a large-scale nuclear strike.[87]

Sources:
[87]Nikolai Poroskov, "V Pomoshch Amerikanskomu Drugu," Vremya novostey, October 14, 2002.

February 2003

On February 12-13 Tu-22M3 medium bombers conducted strikes at test ranges in Saratov oblast (eight aircraft on February 12) and in Kazakhstan (eight aircraft on February 13). According to Chief of Long-Range Air Force Igor Khvorov, in both cases aircraft practiced destruction of enemy airbases. He noted that, in contrast to the Soviet period, land targets have become the main priority of long-range aircraft, including medium bombers, whereas previously their main targets were sea-based (probably carrier groups).[88]

Sources:
[88]Mikhail Timofeyev, "Strateg Tu-160 Uchitsya Bombit," Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, March 13, 2003.

March 2003

The Strategic Rocket Force held a relatively small-scale exercise combined with an inspection by the Ministry of Defense. The exercise was conducted in the Teykovo division, which consists of road-mobile Topol ICBMs, and lasted for ten days. The central element of the event was an attempt by Russian satellites to find Topol mobile launchers when dispersed from the basing area. In addition to satellites, several groups of Special Forces also searched for the launchers. Following that phase of the exercise, a Topol ICBM from the Teykovo division was launched from Plesetsk test range; an unusual element of the event was that the launch command was relayed by radio instead of customary phone lines. In the meantime, the "service of radio-electronic suppression" ("sredstva radio-elektronnoi borby," or REB) tried to jam the signal in vain. Similar, but barely reported, maneuvers were conducted by strategic Air Force (the 37th Army).[89,90,91]

Sources:
[89]"Inspektsiya Minoborony Proveryaet Raketnye Voiska," Izvestiya, March 25, 2003.
[90]Dmitriy Litovkin, "Burya pod Snegom," Izvestiya, April 2, 2003.
[91]Vladimir Mukhin, "Flot Rossii Gotov k Pokhodu v Araviiskoe More," Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 2, 2003.

May 2003: Indian Ocean Maneuvers

In May 2003, Russia conducted unprecedented maneuvers in the Indian and Pacific Oceans together with India. They took place immediately after the end of major combat action in Iraq. Official military sources announced that these maneuvers had been planned in advance and had no relation to the war in Iraq. That statement appeared credible: the first trip of Russian naval ships to the Indian ocean since the 1980s undoubtedly required many months of preparation; coordination with India also required time and effort. The departure of ships, originally planned for February, was postponed until early April due to the increasingly tense situation in the Persian Gulf.[92] Still, it appears significant that Russia decided to hold maneuvers in spite of the still-ongoing war. Many elements of these maneuvers can be interpreted as a signal to the United States that American power was not invincible where the Russian military was concerned.

According to newspaper reports, the scenario of these exercises simulated escalation of a regional conflict to the nuclear level; they were supposed to improve coordination between the Strategic Air Force, the Navy and other branches of the Armed Forces in the west, east, north and south of Russia, as well as in South Asia.

The "air" component of the exercises included four Tu-160 and nine Tu-95MS heavy bombers, twelve Tu-22M3 medium bombers, and four "flying tankers" Il-78. Two Tu-160 and four Tu-95MS heavy bombers flew to the Arabian Sea and after a five-hour flight, Tu-95MS bombers launched cruise missiles against naval targets from a distance of 3,000 km; Russian ships in the area provided targeting information and in-flight trajectory correction. The missiles that were launched were nuclear-capable Kh-55. (Originally news sources mistakenly reported a new modification - Kh-65SE equipped with conventional warheads.) Cruise missiles were unarmed, though. In the meantime, Tu-160s, according to newspaper reports (there was no official confirmation), simulated the launch of cruise missiles against Diego-Garcia; reportedly, they targeted U.S. military installations on the island. According to Chief of the Air Force Vladimir Mikhailov, en route to the Indian ocean, Russian heavy bombers crossed the territories of "two CIS countries", Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Other long-range bombers held practice bombing at test ranges inside Russia. In the Pacific ocean, four Tu-22M3 medium bombers (two belonging to the Air Force and two to the Navy) launched four Kh-22M anti-ship short-range missiles against simulated naval targets (probably carrier groups).

Russian ships in the Arabian Sea (the group consisted of nine ships from the Pacific and the Black Sea Fleets) simulated the search-and-destroy mission vis-à-vis American Los Angeles class SSNs and launched sea-based cruise missiles. Simultaneously, strategic submarines from the Northern and the Pacific fleets conducted SLBM launches while Russian Space Forces simulated disruption of American satellite communications.[93]

The second stage of maneuvers, which began only a few days later, was devoted to joint actions of the Russian and the Indian navies and included, among other elements, submarine search-and-destroy missions (two Indian submarines served as notional targets).[94]

Sources:
[92] Vladimir Mukhin, "Morskie Pekhotintsy iz Rossii Gotovy k Vysadke v Irake," Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 21, 2003; "Sergey Ivanov: Pokhod Rossiiskikh Korablei v Indiiskii Okean ne Svyazan s Situatsiei Vokrug Iraka," Strana.ru, February 25, 2003 (http://www.strana.ru); Oleg Zhundusov, "Ne Shandarakhnut by v Kogo ne Nado," Izvestiya, March 5, 2003.
[93] Igor Korotchenko, "Moskva Repetiruet Yadernyi Udar po SShA," Nezavisimaya gazeta, May 14, 2003; "Rossiiskie Krylatye Rakety Porazili Tseli v Araviiskom More," RIA-Novosti, May 14, 2004; Sergey Ezhov, "Takogo Eshche Ne Bylo," Strana.ru, May 15, 2003 (http://www.strana.ru); Viktor Maysnikov, "Indiiskaya Mnogokhodovka," Vremya MN, May 16, 2003; "20-21 Maya Nachnutsya Sovmestnye Ucheniya Rossiiskogo i Indiiskogo Flotov," Strana.ru, May 18, 2003 (http://www.strana.ru); "Rossiiskie Strategicheskie Bombardirovshchiki Porazili Tikhii Okean," Kommersant-Daily, May 15, 2003; "Otryad Rossiiskikh Korablei Vypustil v Indiiskom Okeane Krylatuyu Raketu," Strana.ru, May 16, 2003 (http://www.strana.ru); Igor Korotchenko, "Potentsial Sokhranen," Nezavisimoe voyennoye obozreniye, May 23, 2003; Dmitri Litovkin, "Rossiiskie Moryaki Vozvrashchauytsya s Uchenii," Izvestiya, July 4, 2003; T. Geynutdinov, "The 'Long' Road to the Ocean," Morskoy Sbornik, August 17, 2003, p. 49-54.
[94] Ivan Safronov, "Rossiiskii Flot Budet Poyavlyatsya v Indiiskov Okeane Chashche," Kommersant-Daily, May 21, 2003; Sergey Gorbachev, "INDRA-2003: S Bala na Korabl," Krasnaya zvezda, May 28, 2003.

August 2003

In August 2003 the Russian Pacific Fleet held maneuvers in the Sea of Japan, Sea of Okhotsk. Several submarines belonging to the Northern Fleet were moved to the area under ice. Two Tu-160 heavy bombers were transferred from their main base at Engels (Saratov oblast) to the Pacific; Russia's Minister of Defense Sergeyy Ivanov flew to the maneuvers on board of one of these bombers. Long-range bombers (including Tu-160s, Tu-95MS from Ukrainka base in the Far East, and Tu-22M3) simulated elimination of a large enemy naval group together with the Navy at a large distance (more than a thousand kilometers from shore). The exercises also tested the brand-new system of sea and air surveillance that had been created in the Far East.

Almost simultaneously Russian troops and the Navy held another exercise in the Caspian Sea, this time their scenario assumed defense against an attack from the sea instead of the 2002 scenario of anti-terrorist operations.[95]

Sources:
[95]Aleksey Chernyshov, "Anatoli Kvashnin Gotovit Tikhookeanskii Flot k Ucheniyam," Kommersant-Daily, June 9, 2003; Vladimir Mukhin, "Novye Geopoliticheskie Tseli Rossii," Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 29, 2003; "Sergey Ivanov Vyletel na Ucheniya na Bombardirovshchike," Interfax, August 22, 2003; "Chetyre Osobennosti Voennykh Manevrov na Dalnem Vostoke," Oborona i Bezopasnost (WPS), August 29, 2003; Ivan Safronov, "Sergey Ivanov Poletel na 'Belom Lebede'," Kommersant-Daily, August 23, 2003.

February 2004: Security-2004

These exercises were advertised as the biggest in over 20 years. They lasted about a month - from late January to February 17 with some elements continuing beyond that point - and involved all branches of the armed forces as well as all six military districts. Officially they were classified as "command and staff training" (komandno-shtabnaya trenirovka) as opposed to maneuvers. Deputy Chief of the General Staff Col.-Gen. Yuriy Baluyevski described the difference in the following way: exercises (training) primarily involve the command and staff level while troops play a subsidiary role while maneuvers emphasize operations of troops.[96]

Like similar events in previous years, these exercises were apparently intended to test the ability of the Russian Armed Forces to fight the most likely conflicts of the future - limited and regional wars; among them the latter category allows for limited use of nuclear weapons for the purposes of deescalation and termination of conflict that cannot be won by conventional weapons alone. Formally the scenario assumed attacks "by terrorists" from four directions - east, south, west, and north-west. Accordingly, defense was simulated on all four fronts (with the emphasis on the south and the north-west), plus against air and space attacks.[97]

In an attempt to dispel the impression that Russia was training for a war against the United States, Col.-Gen. Baluevski emphasized at a press conference: "There is no hint that [the enemy] is the United States of America. There is no hint that it is any other state, whether European or Asian: the opponent is notional."[98] Many observers remarked, however, that from a military point of view there is no such thing as an abstract opponent. Specific states are always kept in mind.[99] A prominent expert, former director of the research institute of Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF) Vladimir Dvorkin rhetorically asked, which country other than the United States could mount a space attack, against which Armed Forces were defending Russia.[100] Indeed, Baluevski noted Russian concerns that the United States apparently contemplated making nuclear weapons "an instrument of achieving military missions and lowering the nuclear threshold." His reference to the October 2003 Ministry of Defense document was also telling: that document did list the enlargement of NATO and a string of U.S. military campaigns in the 1990s and the early 2000s as security challenges. He also admitted that "one does not fight Bin Laden with strategic missiles."

The phase that involved General Purpose troops included mobilization of 10,000 reservists in the Siberian Military District (MD) and their transport to several training centers in the European part of Russia for live-fire exercises. After that troops from the Moscow MD were transferred further to the Leningrad MD to reinforce border guards in a simulation of an external attack from the northwest (it is likely that the scenario assumed the territory of Baltic states used by NATO for an attack on Russia). Reportedly, new systems of command, control and communications were tested during the exercises.[101]

The naval phase involved 10 surface ships and seven submarines and included, among other elements, live-fire exercises of anti-missile defenses: the heavy cruiser Petr Veliki intercepted cruise missiles launched from Russian heavy bombers, a sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM) launched from a submarine (at least, this was the plan, but it has remained unclear whether this part was implemented), and an intermediate range ballistic missile (there is no information about where it was launched from and reports indicated that these were simulators of ballistic missiles).[102] According to some reports, these exercises tested the naval version of the tactical missile defense system S-300, which is called "Fort-M."[103]

Simultaneously, 14 heavy bombers (Tu-160 and Tu-95MS) conducted flights in three directions: to the North Atlantic, to the north of Russia (over the Barents Sea), and to the south (the Ashuluk test range in Astrakhan Oblast).[104] In contrast to previous exercises, Tu-160s that flew over the North Atlantic did not conduct launches of ALCMs. However, three Tu-95MS bombers launched ALCMs over the Barents Sea. Two were launched at the Novaya Zemlya test range and at least one was intercepted by surface ships as part of the anti-missile defense practice.[105]

Launches of strategic ballistic missiles occupied an unusually prominent place: one SLBM, two ICBMs, and a civilian launch vehicle with a military satellite.

In a rare exception, the launch of SS-N-23 (RSM-54 or RM-29RMU) toward the usual target - the test range Kura in Kamchatka - from a Delta-IV (Project 667BDRM) submarine Novomoskovsk failed. It happened at the most inopportune moment - as President Vladimir Putin observed the launch from the strategic submarine Archangelsk of the type known in the West as Typhoon and in Russia as Project 941. An attempt to immediately launch another missile failed as well.

Immediately following the first failure, a flurry of reports made contradictory claims: there was an explosion, the missile fell into the water, the launch was blocked by a satellite, etc. The Chief of the Navy Adm. Vladimir Kuroyedov quickly declared that no "physical" launch should have taken place at all: it was supposed to be a simulation.[106] Not a single commentator believed that announcement, however. In the end, it became clear that between the third and the fourth minutes of the launch sequence the targeting system of the submarine failed and the electronic system immediately blocked the launch.[107]

The day after the Novomoskovsk's failed launches, another submarine of the same class, Karelia, made a fresh attempt to launch an SLBM of the same type. At first, the flight was normal, but after 98 seconds (at the time of the separation of the first stage) the missile began to deviate from its trajectory, activating the self-destruction mechanism.[108]

In contrast to several failures of the Navy, the SRF passed the exercise with flying colors. The SRF and the Space Troops planned three launches: a Molniya (R-7) space-launch vehicle with a military satellite, a Topol ICBM, and an SS-19 (a.k.a. RS-18, a.k.a. UR-100UTTKh), which was remotely launched from Baikonur in Kazakhstan, demonstrating the ability to control ICBMs directly anywhere in Russia without passing through the full command chain.

The central piece of the exercise was the launch of a Topol ICBM (an earlier version of Topol-M) conducted from a mobile launcher about 50 kilometers from Plesetstk.[109] The missile carried a new warhead equipped with hypersonic engines that allow the warhead to reach speeds of 6 Mach and change its trajectory.[110] A combination of complicated trajectory and high speed makes the new warhead very difficult to intercept. Some sources reported that the new Topol warhead was based on a new hypersonic cruise missile X-90 (AS-19 Koala), which eventually is supposed to replace the old Soviet X-55 ALCM.

Sources:
[96] Press conference of the first deputy Chief of the General Staff Col.-Gen. Yuriy Baluevski, February 11, 2004 (text available at http://www.mil.ru).
[97] Ibid.
[98] Press conference of the first deputy Chief of the General Staff Col.-Gen. Yuriy Baluevski, February 11, 2004 (text available at http://www.mil.ru).
[99] Alexander Babakin, Oleg Yelenskiy, Vladimir Mukhin, "Yadernye Zuby Sergeya Ivanova," Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 13, 2004.
[100] Alexander Babakin, Oleg Yelenskiy, Vladimir Mukhin, "Bessrochnye Ucheniya do Pobednogo Kontsa," Nezavisimoe voyennoye obozreniye, February 13, 2004.
[101] Sergey Vasiliev, "'Skiff' Startuet iz Glubiny," Krasnaya zvezda, February 17, 2004; "V Barentsevom More Nachalis Ucheniya Severnogo Flota," MurmanNews.Ru, February 17, 2004 (http://www.murmannews.ru).
[102] "Uchimsya Voevat Po-Sovremennomu," Krasnaya zvezda, February 11, 2004; Vladimir Mukhin, "Neudachnye Puski Raket Rassleduet Komissiya," Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 20, 2004.
[103] Dmitri Litovkin, "Giperzvukovaya 'Koala'," Izvestiya, February 20, 2004.
[104] Nikita Petrov, "NPRO-2004 Soedinennykh Shtatov - Nenadezhnyi Shchit Protiv Rossiiskikh Raket," Strana.Ru on-line information service, February 3, 2004 (http://www.strana.ru).
[105] "'Petr Veliki' Otrazil Vizdushnye Ataki," Strana.Ru on-line information service, February 17, 2004 (http://www.strana.ru); Vladimir Mukhin, "Dalnyaya Avitsiya Porabotala v Barentsevom More," Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, February 20, 2004; "Putin Nabluydaet za Ucheniyami Severnogo Flota," Strana.Ru on-line information service, February 17, 2004.
[106] "Glavkom VMF: Stsenarii Uchenii Predusmatrival Tolko Uslovnyi Pusk Raket," Strana.Ru on-line information service, February 17, 2004 (http://www.strana.ru).
[107] Dmitriy Litovkin, "Ballisticheskie Rakety Putina ne Porazili," Izvestiya, February 18, 2004; Vadim Solovyov, Vladimir Ivanov, Viktor Myasnikov, "Ne v Raketakh Delo, a v Umnoi Nachinke," Nezavisimoe voyennoye Obozreniye, February 20, 2004.
[108] Vladimir Mukhin, Andrei Riskin, "Morskoi Shchit Rossii Vzorvalsya nad Severnym Morem," Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 19, 2004; "Rossiiskii Yadernyi Shchit Dal Treshchinu," Kommersant-Daily, February 19, 2004.
[109] Andrei Borisov, Vadim Solobyov, "Putin za Tri Chasa Zapustil v Nebo Tri Rakety," Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 19, 2004; Dmitriy Litovkin, "U Rossii - Novoe Oruzhie," Izvestiya, February 19, 2004; "Chto i Kuda Zapustili Kosmicheskie Voiska," Kommersant-Daily, February 19, 2004; Yuriy Avdeev, Alexander Bogatyrev, Vladimir Gundarov, Alexander Dolinin, "Garantiya Neuyazvimosti," Krasnaya zvezda, February 19, 2004.
[110] Dmitri Litovkin, "Giperzvukovaya 'Koala'," Izvestiya, February 20, 2004; Nail Gafutulin, Segei Severinov, Alexander Bogatyrev, "Proryv k Oruzhiyu Novogo Pokoleniya," Krasnaya zvezda, February 20, 2004; Fyodor Rumyantsev, Yelena Shishkunova, "Rossiiskaya Raketa Probila Amerikansuyu PRO," Gazeta.Ru, February 20, 2004 (http://www.gazeta.ru).

Introduction

Russia's 2000 National Security Concept: The Nuclear Angle

Russia's 2000 Military Doctrine

The Nuclear Debate of Summer 2000

Russian Ministry of Defense 2003 Policy Paper: The Nuclear Angle

Significant Military Maneuvers

This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2007 by MIIS.

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