 |

This section of the Source Documents Library highlights major
research reports and web-based publications on specific countries and
regions. NTI and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the
Monterey Institute of International Studies update this section weekly. (To access documents
published by governmental organizations, see the Governmental Documents section.)
For links to nongovernmental organizations that regularly publish
journal articles, see the
NTI links
page and the Periodicals section.
updated December 7, 2007

|
Arms Experts Call Agreement with North Korea Another Positive Step Toward Denuclearization |
|
Media Advisory,
Arms Control Association, October 2007
View report
Arms Control Association (ACA) experts called the Oct. 3 agreement in the six-party talks for disabling North Korea’s core nuclear facilities a “another positive step leading North Korea in the right direction—toward denuclearization.” ACA is a non-partisan, independent organization working in support of effective arms control policies.
|
|
Second-Phase Actions for the Implementation of the September 2005 Joint
Statement |
|
Arms Control Association, October 2007
View report
After four days of negotiations and several additional days of deliberations, six countries on Oct. 3 reached agreement on a number of additional actions to advance a September 2005 joint statement and a Feb. 13 initial agreement. They “agreed to push forward the Six-Party talks process” whose goal is “the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in a useful manner.” |
|
NK-Syria Nuclear Connection Questionable |
|
Peter Crail, Arms Control Association, October 2007
View report
Since news reports surfaced regarding the Sept. 6 incursions of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) into Syrian airspace, numerous theories have emerged regarding the intent and results of the reported raid. The most serious and most questionable allegation is that the purpose of the IAF flights is related to North Korean assistance for a Syrian nuclear weapons program. Damascus has called claims of nuclear cooperation with North Korea “fabricated and groundless accounts that have no value whatsoever,” and Pyongyang has dismissed them as “preposterous misinformation.”
|
|
NK Shuts Down Reactor; Talks Progress |
|
Peter Crail, Arms Control Association, September 2007
View report
In July, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that North Korea has shut down five facilities at Yongbyon and Taechon associated with Pyongyang’s plutonium-based nuclear weapons program. The shutdown was the primary step in the first phase of a Feb. 13 agreement intended to lead to North Korea’s denuclearization. The six-party talks are now focused on discussing the implementation of the second phase of that agreement.
|
|
Enhancing U.S. Engagement with North Korea |
|
Joel S. Wit, The Washington Quarterly, Spring, 2007
View report
The 2006 stalemate at the six-party talks, coming after North Korea’s missile tests and its first nuclear detonation, was a sign that U.S. policy was failing. Hamstrung by bureaucratic bickering, unable to build a cohesive multilateral coalition in support of its efforts, and unwilling to engage in serious negotiations with Pyongyang, Washington faced the real prospect of a North Korea armed with a small but growing nuclear deterrent. The Bush administration said that it would never accept a nuclear North Korea, but because of its policies, it seemed to have no choice.
|
|
Chinese Satellite Destruction Stirs Debate |
|
Wade Boese, Arms Control Association, March, 2007
View report
In January, China for the first time used a weapon to destroy one of its satellites. Beijing says its feat was not hostile, but it polluted space with a huge amount of potentially harmful debris and sparked debate over China’s professed desire to prevent a space arms race.
China Jan. 11 demolished an aging weather satellite, the Feng Yun-1C, orbiting Earth at an altitude of approximately 850 kilometers. The satellite disintegrated when struck by a projectile carried into space by a ballistic missile launched from the Xichang space launch facility in southwestern China.
|
|
Arms Control Association Welcomes Agreement on North Korean Nuclear
Program as "Essential First Step" |
|
Press Release, Arms Control Association, February 13, 2007
View report
Arms Control Association (ACA) experts called the multilateral agreement reached earlier today with North Korea a "long overdue and essential first step toward reducing the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program."
|
|
Comparative Connections v.8 n.4 - U.S.-Korea Relations: North Korea Tests a Nuke
and Returns to the Six-Party Talks |
|
Donald G. Gross, CSIS, January 15, 2007
View report
North Korea made good on its long-time threat to conduct a nuclear test when it exploded a small nuclear device of less than a kiloton on Oct. 9. The test generated political shock waves and led to comprehensive sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council Oct. 14. Under tremendous pressure from the international community and China, in particular, North Korea announced Oct. 31 it would return to the Six-Party Talks. |
|
New Details Emerge on NK Nuclear Program |
|
Paul Kerr, Arms Control Association, December, 2006
View report
Several weeks after North Korea’s early October announcement that it had successfully tested a nuclear device, new information is emerging about the test and Pyongyang’s plutonium-based nuclear weapons program. Still, much uncertainty remains about the status and scope of that program and a suspected North Korean uranium-enrichment program.
|
|
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program |
|
Nuclear Weapons Archive October 25, 2006
View report
An overview of North Korea's Nuclear program from its inception
through the resent nuclear test. The article then provides and
in-depth look at the nuclear test itself. |
|
Next Steps on North Korea: Options Beyond Sanctions |
|
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in collaboration
with the Henry L. Stimson Center, October
12, 2006
View report
A discussion prompted by the apparent North Korea nuclear test
entitled “Next steps on North Korea: Options Beyond Sanctions”
with Randy Schriver, a founding partner of Armitage
International LLC and a Senior Associate at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Alan D. Romberg,
Senior Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center. Carnegie Senior
Associate Michael Swaine moderated the discussion. |
|
The Economic Implications of a North Korean Nuclear Test |
|
Marcus Noland, Asian Policy Number 2, July 2006
View report
This essay analyzes the economic implications that a North Korean nuclear test would have on Northeast Asia. Main Argument - A North Korean nuclear test would likely have a negative, though non-catastrophic, economic impact on the region. |
|
A Brief Analysis of Republic of Korea's Defense Reform Program |
|
Bruce W. Bennett, RAND, 2006
View report
At the request of Republic of Korea (ROK) Assemblyman Jin-Ha
Hwang, a member of the National Assembly’s National Defense
Committee, this analysis was performed of the ROK Defense Reform
Plan (DRP). It examines the overall nature of the DRP,
identifies major risks in the plan, and discusses how those
risks can be managed. It concludes that the DRP is a good
approach to potential ROK security dilemmas, but the plan faces
major risks, especially in meeting potential ROK security
requirements. The DRP could be strengthened by adding concepts
for managing its major risks. This paper discusses the
background of the DRP and the manpower problem it needs to
address. It then presents the author’s estimates of the force
changes that would occur and how those forces appear to fit the
force requirements the ROK will likely face in the coming years.
It examines the budget requested for the DRP and whether it will
cover the necessary costs, addresses the effects that the DRP
could have on ROK military morale and how the United States may
view the DRP, and concludes by recommending steps the ROK could
take to manage the key risks identified throughout this
analysis. |
|
Chinese nuclear forces, 2006 |
|
Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen
May/June 2006
View report
China continues to modernize its nuclear forces, though its
recent developments are less dramatic than many analyses have
suggested. There continues to be a number of substantial
unknowns about the composition of China's future forces,
including if and how it will respond to the U.S. deployment of a
ballistic missile defense system. |
|
The North Korean Plutonium Stock - 2006 |
|
David Albright and Paul Brennan, Institute for Science and
International Security, June 26, 2006
View report This report is the latest in a series by ISIS examining North Korea’s existing
plutonium production activity and providing our assessment of its current stocks
of separated plutonium. This type of plutonium is weapons useable and provides
an indication of the size of North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal.
|
|
North Korean Nuclear Crisis: An End in Sight? |
|
Bong-Geun Jun, Arms Control Today, January/February 2006
View report
After 25 months and on-and-off negotiations, the six party talks
finally produced a milestone joint statement on September 19,
stipulating goals and principles leading to the denuclearization
of the Korean Peninsula. Yet, as the failure of a subsequent
November round to achieve significant progress makes clear, this
is only the beginning of another long journey full of surprises
and uncertainties.
|
France, Libya Sign Nuclear Desalination Deal
|
|
Alex Bollfrass, Arms Control Association,
September 2007
View
report On his state visit to Libya, French President Nicolas Sarkozy signed a memorandum of understanding on nuclear energy cooperation with long-time Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi. The July 25 memorandum clears the way for French access to Libyan uranium and outlines an agreement on the eventual construction of a nuclear desalination plant to provide drinking water to the littoral desert country. |
Britain’s nuclear-weapons fix
|
|
Paul Rodgers, Global Security, June 29,
2006
View
report The determination of
Britain's political elite to maintain the country as a
nuclear-weapons state is rooted in a half-century of military
planning to which the possibility of tactical and first use of
nuclear weapons is central. |
|
Integrated Disarmament: a Prerequisite for Sustainable Nonproliferation |
|
Editorial Essay by Rebecca Johnson,
Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 82, Spring 2006
View
report Does Britain need to
invest some £20-25 billion in a new generation of nuclear
weapons? Those advocating a nuclear follow-on to Trident gave as
their main argument that the future was "unknowable", that
unexpected military threats could emerge, and that nuclear
weapons were needed as Britain's "insurance policy". In effect,
they are saying that there is no need for nuclear weapons now,
but one day there might be. |
|
End of a Nuclear Weapons Era: Can Britain Make History? |
|
Rebecca Johnson, Arms Control Association,
April 2006
View
report The British government is expected
to decide on the fate of its nuclear weapons program sometime
before 2010. Britain's current Trident system is expected to
cease to be operational by the early 2020's, and therefore would
require an extension of the service life or an entire new
system altogether. The author surveys the ongoing debate as to
the direction the British government is likely to take, while
commenting on the prospects for a path towards a
non-nuclear defense policy.
|
|
The UK's Search for an Incapacitating ('Non-Lethal') Chemical Agent in the
1960's |
|
Malcolm Dando, Department of Peace Studies,
University of Bradford, January 2006
View
report It is well known that a number of
states have pursued programs intended to develop agents with
specific effects on the nervous system of a quite different
order from traditional (irritant) riot control agents. For
example the United States weaponized BZ in the 1960's and Iraq
was reported to have a psychoactive agent, Agent 15, in the
1990's. Furthermore an agent (or agents) of this type were used
were used to break the Moscow theatre hostage crisis in late
2001. The intention here is to concentrate on the program
carried out in the United Kingdom during the 1960's, since much
of the recent documentation has recently become available.
|
|
The Curious Incident in Northern Syria and Its Potential Proliferation Implications
|
|
Daryl G. Kimball, Arms
Control Association, November 2007
View report
Nearly two months after Israel’s Sept. 6, 2007 raid on a facility in Northern Syria, there is suggestive but ultimately inconclusive evidence that it may have been a small reactor still under construction. Opponents of the six-party process toward the verifiable denuclearization of North Korea are suggesting that possible North Korean involvement may provide reason for a shift in policy regarding the six-party talks and the implementation of the steps outlined in the October 3 joint statement.
|
|
Arms Control Resources on Iran's Nuclear Program |
|
Daryl G. Kimball and Peter Crail, Arms
Control Association, November 2007
View report
International efforts to persuade Iran to restrain its nuclear program have fallen short, leaving Tehran to continue expanding its nuclear program, particularly its uranium enrichment activities. Later this month, the permanent five members of the Security Council plus Germany will consider an additional sanctions resolution to persuade Iran to suspend its nuclear efforts. For analyses, recommendations, and background information on Iran’s nuclear program, please visit the following resources from the independent Arms Control Association (ACA).
|
|
Libya Backs Out of CW Destruction Agreement |
|
Alex Bollfrass, Arms Control Association, July/August 2007
View report
Vowing to take sole responsibility for destroying its chemical weapons, Libya has annulled its contract with the United States. The Libyan government cancelled the agreement, effective June 14, because of dissatisfaction with its provisions on liability, financing, and facility ownership.
|
|
ElBaradei: Iran’s Nuclear Program Advances |
|
Paul Kerr, Arms Control Association, March, 2007
View report
Iran has continued to advance its nuclear program in defiance of a December 2006 UN Security Council resolution, according to a Feb. 22 report from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei. The agency’s Board of Governors is to discuss the report at its next meeting, which begins March 5.
|
|
Security Council Considers New Iran Sanctions |
|
Paul Kerr, Arms Control Association, March, 2007
View report
Senior officials from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany agreed Feb. 26 in London to draft a new council resolution that could impose additional nonmilitary sanctions on Iran. Discussions were preliminary, however, and the six countries did not lay out a specific course of action. |
|
Israeli Cluster Munitions Use Examined |
|
Wade Boese, Arms Control Association, March, 2007
View report
The Department of State recently informed Congress that Israeli use of U.S.-origin cluster munitions in Lebanon last summer might have broken U.S. export rules. Washington has yet to announce if it will take any action against its close ally, but some lawmakers are proposing new U.S. cluster munitions export and use policies. |
|
UN Security Council Sanctions Iran |
|
Sergej Mahnovski, Kamiljon T. Akramov, Theodore W. Karasik, RAND,
January 19, 2007
View report
This report assesses the economic dimensions of security in post-Soviet Central Asia and considers their implications for the role of the United States. The September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States led to the realization among policymakers that instability, failed and failing states, and economic and political underdevelopment present security concerns not just to the states that suffer directly from these problems but to the global community as a whole. |
|
Economic Dimensions of Security in Central Asia |
|
Paul Kerr, Arms Control Association,
January 19, 2007
View report
The UN Security Council Dec. 23 responded to Iran’s continued
failure to comply with its demands by raising the stakes,
unanimously approving a new resolution limiting Tehran’s ability
to obtain materials that could aid its nuclear and missile
programs. So far, Tehran has indicated that it will not bow to
Security Council demands, although Iranian officials maintain
they are willing to negotiate about their controversial gas
centrifuge-based uranium-enrichment program.
|
|
Iran’s Enrichment Efforts Advance |
|
Paul Kerr, Arms Control Association,
December, 2006
View report
Iran continues to advance its nuclear programs even as diplomatic efforts to contain it continue, according to a Nov. 14 report from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei to the agency’s Board of Governors. ElBaradei also reported that investigators have not been able to make progress in their investigation of Tehran’s nuclear activities for months, although Iran promised some renewed cooperation with the agency in late November.
|
|
Iran Ignores Deadline; Security Council Split |
|
Paul Kerr, Arms Control Assosiation,
November, 2006
View report
Following a late and inconclusive round of diplomacy between officials from the European Union and their Iranian counterparts, new efforts to try to restrain Iran’s nuclear program are underway in the UN Security Council.
The Security Council’s five permanent members met Oct. 26 to discuss a draft resolution. The new resolution would impose punitive measures on Iran for its failure to comply with Resolution 1696, passed in July, which calls on Iran to take several steps, including suspending work on its uranium-enrichment program.
|
|
Iran: Balancing East against West |
|
Sanam Vakil, Washington Quarterly, Autumn, 2006
View report
Iran has searched for and found partners willing to accept its
nefarious activities and willing to deal with it on a quid pro
quo basis. Iran's carefully cultivated relationships with China,
Russia, and India are providing it with the economic and
political coverage that it could never obtain from the West. |
|
Judging the Iranian Threat: 20 Questions We Need to Answer |
|
Center for Strategic and international
Studies, September 19, 2006
View report
Iran's actions in the last year have unsettled many around the
world, provoking an active and rich debate as to how nations
should best respond. Embedded in this debate are widely
divergent assumptions, assessments, and conclusions about
Iranian intentions and Iranian actions. To add clarity and
intellectual rigor to this debate, CSIS has prepared a list of
issues — "20 questions" — intended to highlight these points of
divergence. |
|
Iran's Nuclear Threat: Exploring the Politics |
|
Dr. Farhang Jahanpour, Oxford Research Group, July 2006
View report
In the third of a series of occasional ORG briefing papers from key international commentators and
experts, Farhang Jahanpour explores the rhetoric of aggression developing between Iran and the
USA and Israel, and asks if war is really inevitable?
|
|
Libya and the United States: The Next Steps |
|
Ronald Bruce St John, Program of
International Security, March 2006
View report
Bruce St John’s paper examines the current state of US-Libyan
relations giving due credit to the vast improvement that has
occurred while also noting remaining obstacles. To overcome
these, he offers a set of suggestions on how the normalization
process may be completed to mutual benefit. |
|
Time for a U.S./Iran Patch Up |
|
James E. Doyle and Sara Kutchesfahani,
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2006
View report
This paper explores Iran's logic in its nuclear ambitions. It
also argues that a rapprochement between the Iranians and the
Americans is possible, with a change of policy from both sides.
Furthermore, this paper explains how an opportunity exists for
the European Union to play an effective role as a catalyst in
normalizing U.S.-Iran relations.
|
|
Making the Right Call: How the World Can Limit Iran's Nuclear Program |
|
Charles D. Ferguson and Ray Takeyh, Arms
Control Association, March 2006
View report
The authors discuss the urgency for a new approach to the
Iranian nuclear deadlock. The approach treats Iran's perception
of its security as a significant contributor to the impasse and
suggests ways in which to overcome these concerns.
|
|
Iran: Consequences of a War |
|
Paul Rogers, Oxford Research Group,
February 2006
View report
This briefing paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the
likely nature of U.S. or Israeli military action that would be
intended to disable Iran's nuclear capabilities. It outlines
both the immediate consequences in terms of loss of human life,
facilities and infrastructure, and also the likely Iranian
responses, which would be extensive.
|
|
U.S., Russia Swap Arms Ideas |
|
Wade Boese , Arms Control Association, November
2007
View
report
Senior U.S. officials recently offered proposals to their Russian counterparts to ease escalating bilateral tensions, particularly on U.S. plans to base strategic anti-missile interceptors in Europe. The Kremlin said it would study the offers but indicated they were inadequate. Russia’s government also warned it might leave a bilateral treaty limiting certain classes of missiles if other countries remained free to acquire the proscribed weapons.
|
|
U.S. Reaffirms Europe Anti-Missile Plan |
Wade Boese, Arms Control Association,
July/August 2007
View
report
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 7 proposal to share radar data on missiles with the United States might be an earnest offer, a cynical ploy to undercut U.S. plans to base anti-missile systems in Europe, or both. Regardless, U.S. leaders say they will continue their current missile defense approach despite strong Russian opposition.
|
|
Russia Casts Doubt on Conventional Arms Pact |
Wade Boese, Arms Control Association,
June 2007
View
report
President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian leaders recently ratcheted up warnings that Moscow might freeze or end participation in a treaty limiting conventional weapons in Europe if some long-running disputes with NATO are not soon resolved.
|
|
U.S., Europe Anti-Missile Plans Upset Russia |
Wade Boese, Arms Control Association,
March, 2007
View
report
A U.S. bid to base anti-missile systems in Poland and the
Czech Republic is provoking strong reactions from Russia,
including hints that it might abrogate a two-decade-old treaty
restricting Russian missile holdings. Moscow has consistently
opposed Washington’s proposal to base long-range ballistic
missile interceptors in Europe since it first became public in
2004. (See ACT, July/August 2004.) But January revelations that
Washington has approached Prague and Warsaw to start formal
negotiations over deployment options have reinvigorated the
Kremlin’s denunciations.
|
|
Comparative Connections v.8 n.4 - U.S.-Russia Relations: Trade, Nukes, and
Energy |
Joseph Ferguson, CSIS, January 15, 2007
View
report
In a relatively quiet quarter for U.S.-Russia relations,
the issues topping the bilateral agenda were trade, nuclear
proliferation, and energy security. That nuclear proliferation
and energy security were at the top of the list should come as
no surprise. The big news was the announcement that the U.S.
government had agreed in principle to Russia’s long-awaited
accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Presidents
George Bush and Vladimir Putin met twice during the quarter, a
few days apart in Moscow and Hanoi. At their meetings the
discussions centered on WTO, Iran, and North Korea. A surprise
announcement by the Japanese foreign minister concerning the
dispute over the Northern Territories caused a few ruffles in
both Moscow and Tokyo, but the Japanese-Russian relationship
returned again to its stagnant state by the end of the quarter. |
|
Advancing International Cooperation on Bio-Initiatives
in Russia and the CIS |
Kenneth N. Luongo, Derek Averre, J. Raphael
Della Ratta, Maurizio Martellini, Spring 2006
View
report
In April 2005, RANSAC and LNCV held a meeting titled
Advancing. International Cooperation on Bio-Initiatives in
Russia and the CIS in Rome, Italy. The event was the second in a
series of meetings on how to further cooperation between these
governments and NGO's to prevent biological terrorism by
promoting biosecurity, biosafety, and the involvement of
commercial entities in key biological institutes. |
|
Russia Looks to Tighten U.S. Nuclear Ties |
|
Miles A. Pomper, Arms Control
Today, November 2006
View
report
Russian officials are eager to work with
the United States both to increase their share of the U.S. civil
nuclear market and promote the worldwide growth of nuclear
power. But to do so, they will first need to address
nonproliferation and economic concerns voiced by U.S. officials
and lawmakers. |
|
Russian nuclear forces, 2006 |
|
By Robert S. Norris and Hans
M. Kristensen March/April 2006
View
report
Russia continues to transition from its
Cold War nuclear stockpile, further reducing its total nuclear
forces in 2005 but also announcing plans for new weapon systems
and upgrades of existing ones. The Russian government appears to
be attempting to reassert its nuclear strength after years of
decline in order to underscore its status as a powerful nation.
To this end, President Vladimir Putin said Russia has reinstated
large-scale military exercises, and military officials made
several statements about the role of Russia's nuclear posture. |
|
U.S.-Indian Nuclear Agreement: A Bad Deal Gets Worse |
|
Daryl G. Kimball & Fred McGoldrick, Arms Control Association, August 3, 2007
View
report After months of contentious negotiations, the U.S. and Indian officials have concluded -- and released the text of -- a formal agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation. The proposed agreement (also known as a "Section 123" agreement) would give India assurances of supply and advance consent to carry out sensitive nuclear activities that are unprecedented. These U.S. concessions compromise long-standing U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policies and give India, a country that has refused to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), preferential treatment that the United States has not even given to states that have assumed all the obligations and responsibilities of the NPT. |
|
India's Gas Centrifuge Program: Stopping Illicit Procurement and the Leakage of
Technical Centrifuge Know How |
David Albright and Susan Basu, Institute for Science and
International Security, March 2006
View
reportThis paper challenges the the notion that India has
an impeccable nonproliferation record. The authors claim
to have uncovered a well developed, active and secret Indian
program to outfit its uranium enrichment program and circumvent
other countries' export control efforts. The paper concludes
that Indian procurement methods for its nuclear program leak
sensitive nuclear technology. |
back to top

This material is produced independently for NTI by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2003 by MIIS.
HOME | CONTACT US
|
 |