
Egypt's nuclear program is a delicate balance of championing nuclear nonproliferation in the Middle East, developing civilian nuclear industry to address its economic and electricity needs, while at the same time seeking some guarantee of security against the Israeli nuclear threat. Egypt has not in the past and does not presently appear to be aggressively pursuing nuclear weapons, however a recent increase in calls by military officers, government officials, and scholars to develop an Arab deterrent to Israel signals a growing frustration with what it perceives to be the international community's double standard regarding nuclear proliferation in the region. Egypt's active nuclear research program and recent activities aimed at developing a civilian nuclear power program and an independent nuclear fuel cycle could provide cover and opportunity for a clandestine nuclear weapons capability, further clouding what is already a vague understanding of the government's official position on nuclear weapons.
History From its inception, Egypt's nuclear program has been closely tied to regional politics. Spirited by Washington's Atoms for Peace program in the early 1950s, Nasser created the Atomic Energy Establishment, Egypt's nuclear authority, to conduct research into peaceful uses of nuclear energy and began to develop the country's nuclear research program. Both superpowers assisted Egypt in establishing the Inshas Nuclear Research Center: the United States with the installation of a radioisotope laboratory in the late 1950s, and the Soviet Union by supplying a 2MW research reactor in 1961.
As concerns over Israel's activities at Dimona grew in the early 1960s, Egypt for the first time threatened to develop its own nuclear weapons capability and approached first the Soviet Union and then China with requests for nuclear arms. Both requests were denied, and after suffering defeat in the June 1967 War, Egypt signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in July 1968, with the hope that Israel would follow suit.
After Nasser's death and the unsuccessful attempt to regain territories lost in the June 1967 War, President Sadat, it appears, halted Egypt's attempts to procure nuclear arms, and instead concentrated on developing a civilian nuclear power program to address the country's dire economic situation. Convinced that it would be unable to secure Western investment essential to improve the country's economy unless it improved its relations with the United States and Israel, Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, ratified the NPT and adopted full-scope safeguards in 1981, which paved the way for nuclear cooperation agreements with various Western countries.
President Mubarak, elected in 1981 after Sadat's assassination, continued his predecessor's policy of establishing, though unsuccessfully, the nuclear power industry and developing an independent nuclear fuel cycle by actively exploring uranium, constructing a reprocessing plant, securing a purchase of second, 22MW research reactor, and obtaining a fuel fabrication plant. Having downplayed the Israeli nuclear threat for years under Sadat, Egypt, under Mubarak's leadership, once again began raising the issue of Israel's nuclear weapons. While heading the effort to establish a nuclear weapon-free zone in the region beginning in the early 1990s, Egypt also led the Arab states in criticizing the NPT, noting Israel's refusal to accede to the Treaty as an obstacle to nonproliferation efforts in the region, most notably during the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference.
Current Status The Egyptian government has recently undergone a policy change in its approach to nuclear arms, now indicating a renewed interest in a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Middle East as opposed to a push towards developing nuclear weapons. The country maintains an active nuclear research program with two research reactors aimed at developing an independent nuclear fuel cycle which could provide cover and opportunity for development of a clandestine program. However, Egypt has never possessed nuclear weapons and does not have experience in developing them clandestinely. Previous reports of Egyptian intentions to construct a nuclear power plant at El-Dabaa have since been negated as those plans have been set aside. Since April 2005, however, there have been conflicting reports of negotiations between Egypt and Russia for a nuclear power station.
Reports in early 2004 of nuclear cooperation between Libya and Egypt during 2003 have been found to be unsubstantiated. Furthermore, U.S. allegations that IAEA Director-General El Baradei aided in the cover-up of a clandestine Egyptian nuclear program have since been dropped. Both the United States and IAEA have issued statements declaring that Egypt is being truthful in its IAEA declarations and that prior discrepancies were resolved to the satisfaction of the IAEA. Egypt was, however, reproached for past failures to declare nuclear sites and materials in a timely manner. IAEA investigations into the discovery of unexplained plutonium particles in 2004 have not yet determined the source of these particles and the matter is still being reviewed.
In 2005, the Egyptian government repeatedly proclaimed its adherence and transparency in regards to the NPT and its relations with the IAEA. Egypt also participated in the 2005 NPT Review Conference, at which it underlined its position that the issue of Israel must be addressed before progress can be made in the Middle East. In August, the Egyptian foreign minister took the issue of Israel's capabilities further in stipulating that Egypt will not sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty unless Israel signs the NPT.
In February 2006, Cairo achieved a symbolic victory in implementing its goal of a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Middle East. At Egyptian insistence, a paragraph calling for a WMD-free zone in the Middle East was included in the 4 February 2006 IAEA resolution to report Iran to the United Nations Security Council. Egypt has long stressed the need for a Middle Eastern WMD-free zone, which has previously met resistance from the United States. However, Egypt’s insistence on including the paragraph in the resolution was supported by China, Russia, Europe, and eventually the United States.
On 19 September 2006, Gamal Mubarak, son of President Hosni Mubarak and assistant secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party, announced at the party conference that Egypt should pursue nuclear energy to meet its growing energy needs. President Hosni Mubarak echoed this statement at the end of the conference on 21 September 2006. Since these statements, the Supreme Energy Council has been meeting to come up with a plan to revive Egypt's nuclear power program, which has been frozen since the disaster at Chernobyl in 1986. Electricity and Energy Minister Hasan Younes has put forth plans to construct a 1,000 megawatt power station at Al-Dabah, and possibly three other 600 megawatt power stations. It is estimated that the first reactor could be completed within a decade and the last could be finished as soon as 2020. Thus far, Egypt has not made any mention of pursuing uranium enrichment technology.
The plan has been well received both within the country and by other members of the international community. The United States, France, and Israel have stated that they do not see the Egyptian nuclear power program as a threat to proliferation. Also, Russia, China, and the United States have indicated interest in becoming involved in the project.
Egypt recognizes that in order to successfully establish a nuclear industry it will have to rely on assistance from the international community. The World Bank has already made statements that it is ready to help finance peaceful nuclear energy ventures if the Egyptian government asks for it.[1] Egyptian and Russian governments have also agreed upon a cooperation protocol for the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The protocol has yet to be signed and only deals with the exchange of expertise and research and not the actual setting up of nuclear power plants.[2] Egypt also cooperated with the International Atomic Energy Agency to prepare studies relating to its peaceful nuclear program that were submitted to the IAEA for review in June 2007. The IAEA plans to present Egypt with a technical assistance plan to start setting up power-generating nuclear stations in the al-Dabah area. [3]
[1]"World Bank Ready to Finance Egyptian Nuclear Energy Ventures," IPR Strategic Information Database, 15 March 2007. [2]"Egypt, Russia Draw Upon Nuclear Cooperation Protocol-Envoy," BBC, 19 April 2007. [3]"Egypt Studies of Egyptian Nuclear Station Sent to IAEA," Financial Times, 10 June 2007.
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Updated October 2007 |
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