This annotated chronology is based on the data sources that follow each entry. Public sources often provide conflicting information on classified military programs. In some cases we are unable to resolve these discrepancies, in others we have deliberately refrained from doing so to highlight the potential influence of false or misleading information as it appeared over time. In many cases, we are unable to independently verify claims. Hence in reviewing this chronology, readers should take into account the credibility of the sources employed here.

Inclusion in this chronology does not necessarily indicate that a particular development is of direct or indirect proliferation significance. Some entries provide international or domestic context for technological development and national policymaking. Moreover, some entries may refer to developments with positive consequences for nonproliferation.

2000
Top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadir Khan, popularly known as the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, is sacked after US officials inform Pakistan that certain scientists are involved in nuclear cooperation with North Korea.
—Roland Watson and Zahid Hussain, "US attacks N. Korea's 'suppliers': Russia, China and Pakistan accused of aiding rogue state's nuclear program," Ottawa Citizen (Ottawa), 19 October 2002, News, p. A9; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 19 October 2002, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

February 2000
According to scholar James Cotton, US specialists maintain that North Korea is developing a longer-range version of the Taepodong missile, which could strike targets in the continental United States and much of Asia by 2003. North Korea has exported about 400 Scud-type missiles to Iran, Syria, and Pakistan. Cotton asserts that at present, despite having a missile development program, North Korea does not have the capability to arm its missiles with nuclear warheads.
—James Cotton, "North Korea Nuclear and Missile Nonproliferation and Regional Security," Australia and Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (Aus-CSCAP) Newsletter No. 9, February 2000, <http://aus-cscap.anu.edu.au>.

2 February 2000
US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director George Tenet tells the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, "the development of missiles and weapons of mass destruction in South Asia has led to more advanced systems, and both sides [India and Pakistan] have begun to establish...doctrines and tactics to use these weapons."
—Statement by George J. Tenet, Director Central Intelligence Agency, "The Worldwide Threat in 2000: Global Realities of Our National Security," Testimony before Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 2 February 2000.

7 February 2000
Pakistan announces its successful test-firing of the Hatf-I surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missile. A Pakistani government statement says that prior notification of the test was provided to all the neighboring countries. The statement mentions that all design parameters of the missile have been validated and terms the test as a sequel to a series of tests conducted in the previous years. The statement says the new design facilitates greater payload, improved accuracy and allows successful destruction of targets up to 100km using a variety of warheads. The statement adds, "Hatf-I is an indigenous effort and contributes significantly to Pakistan's national security and deterrence strategy."
—Amit Baruah, "Pak. test fires Hatf-I missile," Hindu (Chennai), 8 February 2000; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 8 February 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

24 February 2000
A report by the German Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst-BND) concludes that the illegal export of material for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in "rogue" nations is difficult to control. BND considers North Korea the most active designer and exporter of carrier missiles, and the BND report estimates that North Korea will attempt to export its new missile technology using the international acquisition network that it has already established. Over this network, North Korea is said to acquire missiles not only for its own needs, but also for Pakistan, Syria, and Iran. North Korea is said to use this business as a source of foreign exchange.
—"Schwer zu Konrollieren (Difficult to Control)," Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Frankfurt), 24 February 2000.

24 February 2000
The head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), August Hanning, reports that Iran, as well as Iraq, Pakistan, and India, purchase missile components through subcontractors and "bogus firms" in Germany.
—Stephen Kornelius, "BND Report Views Iran, Iraq Missile Threat," Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Munich), 24 February 2000; in "Everybody is Building Missiles--BND sees Europe Endangered By Iraq's and Iran's Arms Projects," FBIS Document EUP20000223000461, 23 February 2000.

23 March 2000
Pakistan displays the 2,500km-range Shaheen II (Hatf VI) surface-to-surface missile during its national day parade. The Shaheen I is suspected to be the North Korean Nodong II or its variant. A Ghauri missile without any specification of the version is also displayed.
—Amit Baruah, "Pak displays Shaheen," Hindu (Chennai), 24 March 2000; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 24 March 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

18 May 2000
US Senator Jesse Helms agrees to approve the appointment of Robert Einhorn as Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation Affairs in exchange for the Clinton administration's forming of a task force to determine whether the United States ought to impose sanctions on China for the latter's 1992 sale of M-11 ballistic missiles to Pakistan. The task force will have a six-month deadline to complete its task.
—Nyan Chanda and Susan V. Lawrence, "US-China Relations: Final Deadline," Far Eastern Economic Review (Hong Kong), 18 May 2000, <http://www.feer.com/>.

19 June 2000
Japan's Sankei Shimbun reports that 15 North Koreans, including 10 engineers, will return to Pyongyang from Pakistan in a few days. The North Koreans are reported to have been helping Pakistan with its missile development program.
—"N. Korean Missile Experts to Return Home from Pakistan: Report," Agence France Presse, 19 June 2000; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com/>.

20 June 2000
Pakistan denies reports that it has received help for its missile program from North Korea. The Sankei Shimbun reported on 19 June 2000 that 15 North Korean personnel, including 10 engineers, would return to Pyongyang soon from Pakistan.
—"News From Our World Resources: 'No Korean Help' in Missile Programmes," Gulf News (Dubai), 21 June 2000, in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com/>; "Pakistan Denies using N. Koreans on Missile Programme," Agence France Presse, 20 June 2000, in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com/>.

22 June 2000
US Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation Robert Einhorn and a small US delegation secretly visit Beijing to secure China's commitment not to export missile components or technology to Pakistan and Iran.
—"Secretive US Visit to Beijing," Far Eastern Economic Review (Hong Kong), 22 June 2000.

Last Week of June 2000
US intelligence reports suggest continued Chinese assistance to Pakistan's long-range missile program. Several members of Congress are briefed about China's sustained supply of technical expertise to Pakistan. Persons familiar with the intelligence reports say that China is providing specialty materials and technical expertise rather than complete missile systems. The reports describe the shipment of specialty steel, guidance systems, and technical expertise to Pakistan. Several officials point to the sighting of Chinese experts around Pakistan's most recent missile factory partially based on Chinese design. US officials also identify continued Chinese shipments to Pakistan during the past 8 to 18 months. John D. Holum, a US State department arms control official, will visit China in the first week of July to communicate the US government's concerns. A senior US general describes China's assistance to Pakistan as "a longer-range issue" that continues to happen notwithstanding President Jiang Zemin's assurances to President Clinton. The US general adds "we're not sure how much is going on that the Chinese hierarchy knows about."
—Thomas E. Ricks, "China still Aiding Pakistan's Missile Program, Reports Indicate," Washington Post, 2 July 2000, p. A07; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 2 July 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>; David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, "Reports say China is aiding Pakistan on Missile Project," New York Times, 2 July 2000, Section 1, p. 1; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 2 July 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

28 June 2000
The Pakistani government rejects reports that China is assisting Pakistan in the construction of a new missile plant. A statement issued by the Pakistani embassy in Washington asserts, "These reports are completely baseless. It is also regrettable that these false reports have been used to mislead the US Senate and criticize Pakistan."
—Pakistan Rejects Reports of Chinese Missile Plant," Inside China Today (Prague), 29 June 2000, <http://www.insidechina.com>.

1 July 2000
A senior Clinton administration official says, "China's overall record in the nonproliferation area is very good." But the official expresses concern in the missile area, especially in the case of Pakistan.
—Thomas E. Ricks, "China still Aiding Pakistan's Missile Program, Reports Indicate," Washington Post, 2 July 2000, p. A07; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 2 July 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

2 July 2000
The New York Times citing classified briefings to the US Congress reports that China has shipped specialty steels, missile guidance systems, and provided missile-related technical assistance to Pakistan. China is also reportedly providing assisting Pakistan with its newest missile plant.
—David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, "Reports Say China is Aiding Pakistan on Missile Project," New York Times, 2 July 2000, <http://www.nytimes.com>.

3 July 2000
Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar dismisses reports alleging Chinese assistance to Pakistan's missile program.
—"Beijing denies claims of Pakistan arms aid," Los Angeles Times, 5 July 2000, p. 9, Foreign Desk; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 5 July 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

5 July 2000
The Chinese government denies helping Pakistan's nuclear and missile programs and says it has responded favorably to international requests to limit nuclear arms buildup in South Asia. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Sun Yuxi, terms the allegations of Chinese support to Pakistan as "totally unfounded and with ulterior motives."
—"Beijing denies claims of Pakistan arms aid," Los Angeles Times, 5 July 2000, p. 9, Foreign Desk; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 5 July 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

9 August 2000
The Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) semi-annual unclassified report to Congress on arms proliferation concludes, "Chinese missile-related technical assistance to Pakistan increased during this reporting period." The report goes on to state that "we cannot preclude" that contact with Pakistani nuclear weapons officials were ongoing.
—Bill Gertz, "Pakistan Gets More Chinese Weapons," Washington Times, 9 August 2000, p. 1.

10 August 2000
Pakistani foreign office spokesperson Riaz Mohammed Khan responds to allegations over possible missile assistance and cooperation from China by saying, "Pakistan and China do not have cooperation in building long-range missiles....the same situation applies to North Korea as far as we are concerned." Riaz adds, "Pakistan has not received anything from China that is inconsistent with China's international commitments or obligations, including the guidelines that they voluntary follow relating to the MTCR [Missile Technology Control Regime]."
—NBC's Robert Winderm and contributions from Reuters, "Pakistan Denies China Missile Link," MSNBC, 10 August 2000, <http://www.msnbc.com>.

10 August 2000
In an interview with Kyodo News, Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar admits that cooperation on missile technology exists between China and Pakistan. Sattar is quoted as saying, "There is no international regime that prohibits cooperation within MTCR [Missile Technology Control Regime]. I simply want to say that cooperation within MTCR is permissible by international law." Sattar admits that China supplied Pakistan a "small number of tactical missiles, which means short-range missiles," in the 1990s.
—Shahid-ur-Rehman, "Sattar Says Pakistan, China Cooperate on Missiles," Kyodo News (Tokyo), 10 August 2000; in FBIS Document JPP20000810000074, 10 August 2000.

23 August 2000
Pakistan rejects reports that mysterious flying objects seen over western Baluchistan province last week were missile tests. Pakistan terms the reports as "baseless and ridiculous." Witnesses say the objects appeared to be flying in formation with trailing flumes and "looked like missiles." A military spokesperson rules out the possibility of weapons and suggests that the sighted objects might have been comet fragments.
—"Not missile tests: Pak," Hindu (Chennai), 24 August 2000; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 24 August 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

16 September 2000
Senior Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr Samar Mubarakmand claims that Pakistan has developed Shaheen II, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a range of 2,500km. He says the missile is ready to be tested.
—"Pakistan's 'Multi-Stage' 2,500 KM Range 'Shaheen-II' Missile Ready For Testing," Dawn (Karachi), 17 September 2000; in FBIS Document SAP20000917000011, 17 September 2000.

21 September 2000
Pakistan reportedly begins serial production of Shaheen I missile with its induction into the Army. A senior Pakistani government official tells News that mass production of Shaheen has begun. The missile was tested in April 1999.
—"Shaheen-I production," Hindu (Chennai), 22 September 2000; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 22 September 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

27 September 2000
Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, Dr. A.Q. Khan, says Pakistan is capable of striking all major Indian cities and claims that Pakistan has a "stockpile of missiles and atom bombs." Khan claims that the 1,550-mile-range Shaheen II is ready and awaiting the government's clearance for testing. Khan's remarks follow a claim by the Indian defense minister George Fernandes that India might test its medium-range missile Agni III ballistic missile "sooner than expected." US intelligence and military sources indicate that Pakistan's nuclear and missile weapons' stockpile is "substantially larger" than India's arsenal, due to the help received from Chinese and North Korean entities.
—Luke Harding and Rory McCarthy, "Nuclear rivals to test fire missiles," Guardian (London), 27 September 2000, Guardian Foreign Pages, p. 18; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 27 September 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

10 November 2000
Pakistan successfully completes the first cold test of a new short-range ballistic missile. The Urdu daily, Jang, reports that the missile's motor engine was successfully tested recently at a facility located in the suburbs of Islamabad.
—"Pak. missile test," Hindu (Chennai), 11 November 2000; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 12 November 2000, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

21 November 2000
US and Chinese officials announce an agreement on missile technology exports under which Beijing will discontinue selling ballistic missile technology to Pakistan and Iran and publish guidelines for future export controls in this area. In turn, the US State Department announces that it will waive sanctions on Chinese entities for the past sales of missile technologies to entities in Iran and Pakistan. As a result of the new agreement, the Chinese foreign ministry states, "China is opposed to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction....China has no intention of assisting, in any way, any country in the development of ballistic missiles that can be used to deliver nuclear weapons (i.e., missiles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500kg to a distance of at least 300km).
—"China to discontinue Missile sales to Iran, Pakistan," United Press International, 21 November 2000, in Lexis-Nexis, <http://www.lexis-nexis.com>; "People's Republic of China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson's Statement," 21 November 2000, <http://www.nti.org/db/china/engdocs/prcmtcr.htm>.

1 July-31 December 2000
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reports that the Chinese entities continued to provide "significant assistance" to Pakistan's ballistic missile program during the latter half of the year 2000. Such assistance has been critical to enable Pakistan move "toward serial production of solid-propellant SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles] such as Shaheen I and Haider I. Pakistan tested the Shaheen-I in 1999 and plans to flight-test the Haider I in 2001. Successful development of the two-stage Shaheen II MRBM [medium-range ballistic missile] will require continued Chinese assistance or assistance from other potential sources." The report reiterates the US government view that China continues to "take a very narrow interpretation of its nonproliferation commitments with the United States. In the case of missile-related transfers, Beijing has on several occasions pledged not to sell Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Category I systems but has not recognized the regime's key technology annex." The report also notes that North Korea continues to export "significant ballistic missile-related equipment, components, materials, and technical expertise to countries in...South Asia..."
—"Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions," Central Intelligence Agency, 1 July-31 December 2000, <http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/bian/bian_sep_2001.htm>.

4 January 2001
A Pakistani news agency reports Pakistan will test a 300km-range ballistic missile, Haider I, in the first week of March. The missile will later be displayed at the joint services parade on Pakistan day on 23 March. The missile is solid fueled and is nuclear capable. The missile's accuracy is claimed to be 100 percent compared to that of the Shaheen's. The news agency claims that the missile was manufactured with indigenous resources, skills, and technology. The news agency, quoting official sources, says that the Haider I's range can be increased with certain modifications and claims that its storage would be easy.
—"Pak. to test new missile in March," Hindu (Chennai), 5 January 2001; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 5 January 2001, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

26 January 2001
Pakistan claims that the medium-range Shaheen I and the intermediate-range Shaheen II ballistic missiles are in "regular production" and have been inducted into the Army. A Pakistani official claims that the Shaheen missiles are highly stable. The official further suggests that Pakistan's growing missile capability precludes the need to conduct multiple flight tests and indicates that cold tests are sufficient.
—"Pak. claims Shaheen into army," Hindu (Chennai), 27 January 2001; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 27 January 2001, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

10 March 2001
Senior Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr A.Q. Khan says that Pakistani scientists are developing the nation's first Satellite Launch Vehicle (SLV). The project is being undertaken by the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO).
—"Qadeer Khan: Pakistani scientists active in building Satellite Launch Vehicle," Dawn (Karachi), 11 March 2001; in FBIS Document SAP20010311000032, 11 March 2001.

12 March 2001
According to a news report, Pakistan will test a very powerful nuclear missile called Haider. According to the report, Haider has a range of over 2,500km and has twice the nuclear payload capacity of other missiles that Pakistan currently possesses. Quoting sources, the report says the missile is in the final stages of completion and is expected to be tested in April.
—"Pakistan: April test expected for nuclear payload-capable long-range missile," Jasarat (Islamabad), 12 March 2001; in FBIS Document SAP20010312000013, 12 March 2001.

1 April 2001
According to Pakistani sources, the Shaheen II's range has been increased to 4,000km and a possible date for testing Shaheen II is being finalized. Testing the missile will require the target location to be placed in the Indian Ocean or the Arabian Sea.
—"Pakistan Shaheen-II Missile Range Increased to 4,000 KM, India's 'Unreliable'," Jang (Karachi), 1 April 2001; in FBIS Document SAP20010402000032, 2 April 2001.

28 April 2001
The Chairman of the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPRCO) Chairman Dr. Majeed Sheikh says Pakistan's Badr II satellite will be launched in one or two months from Bekanor with the help of the Russian Space Agency. He says the launch was delayed due to some fault in the Russian satellite. M. Dr. Sheikh says Pakistan will develop its own satellite launch vehicle (SLV) program soon.
—"Pakistan to develop indigenous satellite launch vehicle programme, says SUPARCO chief," PakNews (Internet Edition), 28 April 2001; <http://www.paknews.org>.

1 May 2001
US satellites detect a shipment of missile components on the China-Pakistan border.
—"China supplied missile parts to Pak," Hindu (Chennai), 7 August 2001; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 7 August 2001, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

1 June 2001
The Financial Times reports that US officials are concerned about contacts between North Korean officials and senior figures in the Pakistani nuclear program. There is also evidence that North Koreans have visited a nuclear weapons site in Pakistan. Some speculate that North Korea might obtain nuclear weapons technology in exchange for ballistic missile technology. US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, says US concerns are centered "on people who were employed by the nuclear agency and have retired."
—Stephen Fidler and Edward Luce, "US Fears North Korea Could Gain Nuclear Capability Through Pakistan," Financial Times (London), 1 June 2001, Front Page-First Section, p. 1; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 31 May 2001, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

25 June 2001
Nuclear Fuel says that reports in early June 2001 about possible cooperation in the nuclear field between North Korea and Pakistan are erroneous. US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage was cited as the source of the earlier reports, but a "US nonproliferation official" said last week that the evidence points to cooperation in the area of solid-fueled missiles. Apparently, there is no indication of Pakistan assisting North Korea with uranium enrichment.
—Mark Hibbs, "North Korean-Pakistan Collusion Said Limited to KRL and Missiles," NuclearFuel, vol. 26, no. 13, 25 June 2001, <http://www.mhenergy.com>.

1 January-30 June 2001
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reports that "Chinese entities continued to provide significant assistance to Pakistan's ballistic missile program" during the first half of 2001. Further, "Pakistan is moving toward serial production of solid-propellant SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], such as the Haider I and Shaheen I." However, "Pakistan needs Chinese assistance to support the development of the two-stage Shaheen II MRBM [medium-range ballistic missile]." The report notes that in "November 2000, China committed not to assist, in any way, any country in the development of ballistic missiles that could be used to deliver nuclear weapons, and to enact at an early date a comprehensive missile-related export control system."
—"Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions," Central Intelligence Agency, 1 January-30 June 2001, <http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/bian/bian_2002.htm>.

July 2001
US intelligence agencies track a Pakistani C-130 cargo aircraft as it lands in North Korea. The aircraft takes a shipment of ballistic missile parts for Pakistan's missile program. US officials are doubtful whether the cargo plane brought nuclear-related goods to North Korea.
—David E. Sanger, "Alliances: In North Korea and Pakistan, Deep Roots of Nuclear Barter," New York Times, 24 November 2002, p. 1; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 24 November 2001, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

6 August 2001
According to US intelligence officials, China has sent a dozen shipments of missile components to Pakistan since the beginning of the year. The China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation, a state-run company, supplied parts for Shaheen I and Shaheen II missiles. The transfer of components is in contradiction to Beijing's undertaking not to support foreign nuclear missile programs. Shaheen I and Shaheen II are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
—"China supplied missile parts to Pak," Hindu (Chennai), 7 August 2001; in Lexis-Nexis Academic Universe, 7 August 2001, <http://web.lexis-nexis.com>.

21 August 2001
According to Deputy Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) John E. McLaughlin, North Korea has transferred Nodong ballistic missiles to Pakistan, and the technology to Iran for its Shehab 3, which is supposedly a "direct descendent of the Nodong." McLaughlin also says that Pyongyang is "still selling missile-related equipment, components, materials, and technical expertise to the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa."
—John E. McLaughlin, "Remarks of the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence John E. McLaughlin at the 4th Annual Space and Missile Defense Conference," 21 August 2001, <http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/ddci_speech_08232001.html..

23 August 2001
Officials from the United States and China meet to discuss suspected exports of Chinese missile technology to countries thought to include Iran and Pakistan. The talks are held under the bilateral "non-proliferation arrangement" agreed upon in 2000 to discuss US concerns about China's "mixed" record under the agreement. China has strongly denied US claims that it has shipped missile parts to Pakistan and thus has violated the agreement.
—"China, US hold talks on missile non-proliferation," Deutche Press-Agentur, 23 August 2001, in Lexis-Nexis, <http://www.lexis-nexis.com>.

1 July-31 December 2001
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reports that Chinese entities have provided considerable assistance to Pakistan's ballistic missile program during the past six months. As a result, "with Chinese entity assistance, Pakistan is moving toward serial production of solid-propellant SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], such as the Shaheen I and Haider I." The report also hints at program delays in the Haider I ballistic missile program, which is now expected to be tested in 2002. Further, "Pakistan needs continued Chinese assistance to support development of the two-stage Shaheen II MRBM [medium-range ballistic missile]. The report also notes that during the second half of 2001, North Korea "continued to export significant ballistic missile related equipment, components, materials, and technical expertise to...South Asia..."
—"Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions," Central Intelligence Agency, 1 January-30 June 2001, <http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/bian/bian_jan-2002.htm>.