BMD and Japan

The Japanese government is interested in cooperating with the United States to develop a limited layered ballistic missile defense system. The main WMD threats Japan faces stem from North Korea and China. North Korea's test of a Taepodong-1 missile over Japanese territory in August 1998 played a catalytic role in bolstering domestic support for a limited missile defense system in Japan. North Korea has already deployed perhaps 100 Nodong missiles that can reach Japan. In addition, China has 50 nuclear-armed intermediate-range missiles able to reach Japan. Tokyo is also interested in missile defenses as a means of strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance and fortifying U.S. deterrence against North Korea.

Because Japan's constitution and political culture place strong restrictions on its military capabilities, Tokyo has been cautious about embracing the idea of missile defense. Many Japanese are also reluctant to embrace U.S. BMD plans fully because of concerns about costs, technological effectiveness, and the negative regional security and arms control implications of such a system.

In December 2003, the Japanese government made a formal decision to deploy a missile defense systems to defend Japan. Japan has said that its missile defense system would not be part of the global U.S. systems. However, Japan is purchasing many elements of its missile defense system (including nine ship-based missiles intended for deployment by 2007) from the United States and is cooperating with the United States to build a joint defense against a possible North Korean missile attack. In September 2005, the United States informed the Japanese government that its contribution to the cost of building a joint missile defense system, scheduled to begin deployment in 2006, would be almost triple the original estimate of $3 billion. As Japan has been cutting back its defense spending, it may try to renegotiate its contribution.

Japanese views on U.S. deployment of national missile defenses are mixed. Some believe that such defenses would strengthen the U.S. defense commitment to Japan and enhance extended deterrence. But others believe that U.S. deployment, unless linked to an agreement with Russia, would undermine U.S.-Russian nuclear stability and could imperil the nuclear arms reduction process.

Further Reading:

	NTI, Evan Medeiros, "Theater Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security"
	Ken Jimbo, "A Japanese Perspective on Ballistic Missile Defense"
	CNS, Stanley Foundation, "Ballistic Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security: Views from Washington, Beijing, and Tokyo"
	RAND, Michael Swaine, Rachel Swanger and Takashi Kawakami, Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense
	CNS, Umemoto Tetsuya, "Japan-U.S. Cooperation in Ballistic Missile Defense"
	The Nonproliferation Review, Daniel Pinkston, "Stakeholders in the North Korean Missile Development Program"