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 The United States fears that in the future it will confront a growing threat
from intercontinental ballistic
missiles (ICBMs) armed with WMD. U.S. forces and U.S. regional allies
already face the threat of shorter-range ballistic
missiles armed with WMD. By 2015, the United States believes that, in
addition to the long-standing nuclear missile threats from Russia and China,
it may also be threatened by:
- the North Korean Taepodong-1, a prototype satellite launch vehicle that
could be used in the future as an intermediate-range system able to cover
the entire territory of South Korea and Japan. Potentially, a three-stage
Taepodong-1 could be used as an ICBM able to carry a small chemical or biological
weapon to the United States;
- the North Korean Taepodong-2, a long-range missile believed to be under
development that might be able to deliver nuclear weapons, if North Korea
develops them;
- an Iranian ICBM able to deliver nuclear weapons (possibly based on the Taepodong-2).
Shorter-range missiles already threaten U.S. allies or will soon. North Korea's
Nodong can reach Japan. North Korea's Scuds
can reach South Korea. Iran's Shahab-3
can reach Israel. The Shahab-3 and shorter-range systems can also reach U.S.
allies, such as Saudi Arabia, in the Persian Gulf region. Libya is seeking missiles
able to reach southern Europe and Israel. Syria possesses numerous missiles
that are able to reach Israel.
The July 1998 Report
of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States,
known as the "Rumsfeld Commission Report," emphasized that missile threats against
the United States are growing and stressed that the threat could worsen suddenly
and unexpectedly. The report gained added influence on August 31, 1998, when
North Korea surprised the world with a test flight of its first three-stage
space launch vehicle, the Taepodong-1. Although the third stage failed, the
Taepodong-1 is the first North Korean missile that might be able to reach U.S.
territory (the western islands of the Aleutian chain in Alaska).
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