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Concerns about the availability of ballistic
missiles of increasing range center on North Korea, Iran, and South Asia.
North Korea
North Korea's August 1998 test of the three-stage version of the Taepodong-1 missile underscored
its growing missile proliferation threat. The Taepodong-1 is a prototype satellite
launch vehicle that could potentially be used as an intercontinental missile
able to carry a light chemical or biological weapon payload to the United States.
The North Korean test motivated the Clinton administration to accelerate work
on U.S. missile defenses. Following negotiations
with the United States in September 1999, North Korea agreed
to halt flight tests of its missiles as long as bilateral
negotiations "aimed to improve relations with the U.S." continue.
Soon thereafter, the United States eased some of the economic sanctions it had
imposed against
North Korea under the Trading
with the Enemy Act. In January 2003, days after announcing its withdrawal
from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), North Korea threatened to
end the moratorium on ballistic missile testing. This threat was later
repeated in March 2003, following
Japan's first launch of two reconnaissance satellites into orbit. North Korea
has persisted in the development of the Taepodong-2
missile, which has a greater range than the Taepodong-1. In addition, North Korea has reportedly exported
ballistic missiles and related technologies to a number of countries, advancing
the recipient countries missile programs.
On July 4, 2006, North Korea tested
seven missiles, including a long-range Taepodong missile that blew up seconds
into the launch. The UN Security Council condemned the missile tests and
imposed economic sanctions against Pyongyang through
UN
Resolution 1695
on July 15. On October 9, North Korea announced an underground test of a nuclear
device, and it has threatened to test a nuclear-tipped missile. Iran
Iran's initial test of the Shahab-3 intermediate-range missile in July 1998 was another
major development. This intermediate-range missile, based on the Nodong
missile supplied by North Korea, enables Iran to attack
Israel with WMD. The United States believes that, in addition to North Korea,
Russia and China helped Iran produce the Shabab-3, a liquid-fueled missile with
an 800-mile (1,300-kilometer) range, capable of carrying an 800-1,200 kilogram
warhead. The missile could possibly carry a chemical or nuclear separating
warhead. In July 2003, Iran conducted its eighth test of the Shabab-3, the first
test in which the missile flew to its maximum estimated range of 800 miles. The
missile was then given to Iran's Revolutionary Guards and experts believe that a
number of Shabab-3 missiles have been deployed. In August 2004, Iran tested
another version of the Shabab-3, which could possibly strike all of Israel as
well as U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf. With help and technology from
North Korea, Iran is reportedly developing
more advanced versions of the Shabab ballistic missile with greater ranges, over
1,200 miles.
Iran's ability to produce longer range missiles coupled with its plan to pursue
a complete nuclear fuel cycle, raise concerns that it plans to develop nuclear
warheads for its Shabab-3 missiles.
Danger in South Asia
In recent years,
India and
Pakistan have
acquired a variety of ballistic missiles able to carry nuclear warheads. These
capabilities increase the ability of the two countries to wage nuclear war and
conduct surprise attacks, creating a potentially unstable situation. On August
6, 2005, India and Pakistan agreed to notify each other before conducting
ballistic missile tests, and to establish a hotline between their foreign
ministries to prevent an accidental nuclear exchange. In July 2006, India
unsuccessfully test-fired its 3,000-4,000 kilometer range Agni-3 ballistic
missile that could potentially hit targets inside China. The Agni-3 is a
two-stage solid-fuel rocket; it reportedly failed due to design flaws. Analysts
warn that increased U.S.-India space and high technology cooperation could
increase India's ability to develop and deploy inter-continental ballistic
missiles.
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Further Reading -
North Korea:
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NTI,
DPRK Missile Overview |
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CRS, Andrew Feickert,
"Missile
Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries" |
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CNS, East Asian Nonproliferation
Program,
"CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities" |
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CRS, Steven Hildreth,
"North
Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States" |
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CNS,
Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Northeast Asia: An Annotated
Chronology |
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The Nonproliferation Review, Daniel Pinkston,
"Domestic Politics and Stakeholders in the North Korean Missile
Development Program" |
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Wisconsin Project,
"North Korea Missile Update -- 2005" |
Further Reading - Iran:
Further Reading - South Asia:
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CRS, Andrew Feickert & K. Alan Kronstadt,
"Missile Proliferation and the Strategic
Balance |
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Arms Control Today, Richard
Speier,
"U.S. Space Aid to India: On a 'Glide Path' to ICBM Trouble?"
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Disarmament Diplomacy,
"Hesitant Rapprochement, Wary
Diplomacy in South Asia" |
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CRS, K. Alan Kronstadt,
"Pakistan-U.S.
Relations" |
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CRS, K. Alan Kronstadt,
"India-U.S. Relations" |
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