A Primer on WMD

Definitions
Effects
Production
Proliferation & Use
Missiles
Terrorism
Historical Context and Scope of Threat
What Can Be Done?
Nuclear Terrorism
Bioterrorism
Curbing WMD Proliferation
 

WMD Terrorism: Historical Context and Scope of Threat

 
 
Produced by the Monterey Institute's Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Updated November 2006


Further Reading:
U.S. Department of State, "Country Reports on Terrorism 2004"

CNS, Terrorism Page

CNS, Sammy Salama and Kathleen Thompson, "The Historical Roots of Current Terrorist Tactics and Methods"

Henry L. Stimson Center, Amy Smithson, Ataxia: The Chemical and Biological Terrorism Threat and the U.S. Response

The Nonproliferation Review, Jean Pascal Zanders, "Assessing the Risks of Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation to Terrorists"

The Nonproliferation Review, Bruce Hoffman, "Terrorism and WMD: Some Preliminary Hypotheses"

CNS, Jonathan Tucker, "The Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons Materials and Technologies to State and Sub-State Actors"

NTI, Jason Pate and Gary Ackerman, "Assessing the Threat of Mass-Casualty Bioterrorism"
U.S. Department of State, State Sponsors of Terrorism

History

WMD terrorism is not a new phenomenon; in March 1995, the Japanese doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo released sarin nerve agent in the Tokyo subway, killing 12 people and injuring over a thousand. The fall 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States killed five people. Both of these attacks killed far fewer than the September 11 attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center, which used commercial airplanes rather than WMD. Thus, some experts argue that conventional weapons are of greater concern than WMD.

Although conventional explosives are less deadly pound-for-pound than some weapons of mass destruction, they are generally easier to acquire and use effectively. For example, the rise in the number of suicide bombings in post-war Iraq and elsewhere reveals the ease of access to conventional explosives, their simple designs, and their ability to cause casualties and panic. These types of bombings have killed hundreds of people around the globe. In contrast to conventional explosives, chemical, biological, and radiological agents are difficult to use to cause large numbers of casualties. For example, despite Aum Shinrikyo's substantial financial resources and scientific knowledge, it was still unable to overcome the inherent complexities of effectively using CW as a mass-casualty weapon.

Many scholars have argued that since the 1980s, religion has replaced politics as the main motivation of terrorist groups. This could lead some terrorist groups to be less constrained by society's values and more willing to cause greater levels of violence than the more traditional, politically motivated terrorists of the past. Terrorism specialists have in fact observed trends in tactics suggesting that terrorists are now more interested in mass-casualty attacks, for which WMD would be well suited. Mass-casualty terrorism is also not new to the United States. In April 1995, a right-wing activist used a truck bomb to destroy the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 people and injuring more than 700.

Scope of Threat

Terrorists seeking a WMD capability would need either to develop their own weapons, as did Aum Shinrikyo, or recruit unemployed weapons scientists, steal materials or weapons, or obtain WMD from a state sponsor. For example, Usama bin Laden, the leader of an international network of anti-American Islamic fundamentalist organizations called Al-Qaeda, has expressed interest in obtaining and using WMD. Bin Laden, believed to be responsible for the September 11, 2001 attacks and the August 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, may have the resources to get WMD, as well as the willingness to use them.

The U.S. government has accused some countries of sponsoring terrorism, including Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria. The U.S. government has also determined that these countries currently possess, or at one time possessed, one or more types of WMD. Formerly, the list of countries also included Iraq and Libya. The possibility that Iraq might supply terrorist groups with WMD, however, is no longer a major concern in the wake of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that overthrew the government of Saddam Hussein. All terrorism-related sanctions were lifted against Iraq by President George W. Bush on May 7, 2003, and in October 2004, the United States rescinded Iraq's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Libya’s December 2003 decision to renounce terrorism and give up its WMD programs substantially improved Libya’s standing with the international community; UN sanctions were lifted against the country in September 2004. In May 2006, the United States removed Libya from the list of states that sponsor terrorism.


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This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2004 by MIIS.

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