WMD Terrorism: Historical Context and Scope of Threat

Further Reading:

	U.S. Department of State, "Country Reports on Terrorism 2008"
	CNS, Terrorism Resources
	CNS, Sammy Salama and Kathleen Thompson, "The Historical Roots of Current Terrorist Tactics and Methods"
	Henry L. Stimson Center, Amy Smithson, Ataxia: The Chemical and Biological Terrorism Threat and the U.S. Response
	The Nonproliferation Review, Jean Pascal Zanders, "Assessing the Risks of Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation to Terrorists"
	The Nonproliferation Review, Bruce Hoffman, "Terrorism and WMD: Some Preliminary Hypotheses"
	CNS, Jonathan Tucker, "The Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons Materials and Technologies to State and Sub-State Actors"
	NTI, Jason Pate and Gary Ackerman, "Assessing the Threat of Mass-Casualty Bioterrorism"
	U.S. Department of State, State Sponsors of Terrorism
	United Nations Foundation, “U.S. Gets New Evidence on Al-Qaeda Biological, Chemical Arms”
	Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Report Card
	WMD Insights, Richard Weitz, "Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism: Steady, but Slow Progress"
	Multimedia:
	NPR, "Who Carries Out Suicide Bombings?" (Audio)
	WMD Commission Final Report (Video)
	Report: 'F' for Administration's Readiness (Video)

History

Petri Dish Used to Identify Potential Bacillus Anthracis
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/
File:1993_Kameido_site_fluid_petri.jpg

Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) terrorism is not a new phenomenon. In March 1995, the Japanese doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo released sarin nerve agent in the Tokyo subway, killing 12 people and injuring over a thousand. The fall 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States killed five people and sickened 15. (In 2008, the Federal Bureau of Investigation determined that Bruce Ivins, a government biodefense scientist who committed suicide while under investigation, was the sole perpetrator behind the anthrax attacks.) Both of these attacks, however, killed far fewer than the September 11th attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center, which used commercial airplanes rather than WMD. Thus, some experts argue that conventional weapons could be of even greater concern than WMD.

Although conventional explosives are less deadly pound-for-pound than some WMD, they are generally easier to acquire and use effectively. For example, the rise in the number of suicide bombings in post-war Iraq and elsewhere reveals the ease of access to conventional explosives, their simple designs, and their ability to cause casualties and panic. These types of bombings have killed hundreds of people around the globe. Although chemical, biological, and radiological agents have the potential to cause a significant number of casualties, they are far more challenging to design and successfully use than conventional explosives. For example, despite Aum Shinrikyo's substantial financial resources and scientific knowledge, it was still unable to overcome the inherent complexities of effectively using chemical weapons (CW) as a mass-casualty weapon.

Many scholars have argued that since the 1980s, religion has replaced politics as the main motivation of terrorist groups. This could lead some terrorist groups to be less constrained by society's values and more willing to cause greater levels of violence than the more traditional, politically motivated terrorists of the past. Terrorism specialists have in fact observed trends in tactics suggesting that terrorists are now more interested in mass-casualty attacks, for which WMD would be well suited. Mass-casualty terrorism is also not new to the United States. In April 1995, a right-wing activist used a truck bomb to destroy the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 people and injuring more than 700.

Scope of Threat

Terrorists could take several paths to attain a WMD capability: develop their own weapons, as did Aum Shinrikyo; recruit unemployed weapons scientists; steal materials or weapons; or obtain WMD from a state sponsor. For example, Usama bin Laden, the leader of an international network of anti-American Islamic fundamentalist organizations called Al-Qaeda, has expressed interest in obtaining and using WMD. Bin Laden, believed to be responsible for the September 11, 2001 attacks and the August 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, may have the resources to obtain WMD, as well as the willingness to use them.

Al-Qaeda is believed responsible for the partial completion of a biological weapons (BW) facility near Kandahar in Afghanistan (discovered after the expulsion of the Taliban), indicating that the organization is determined in this endeavor. Further, two Al-Qaeda operatives, Abu Khabab al-Masri and Aafia Siddiqui, are believed to have actively sought chemical and biological weapons. Al-Masri purportedly died in an airstrike in July 2008; Siddiqui was arrested on July 17, 2008, with weapons-related documents in her possession. A recent statement by U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair in February 2010 reiterated the threat posed by Al-Qaeda and its intent to carry out a "large-scale operation that would cause mass casualties." In his statement, he specifically pointed to the fact that "in April 2009, Abu Yahya al-Libi, the official spokesperson and head of [Al-Qaeda]’s religious committee, publicly advocated blowing up U.S. military, political, economic, and financial institutions." The intelligence assessment also indicated that Al-Qaeda remains intent on the acquisition of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons.

The U.S. government has accused some countries (including Cuba, Iran, Sudan, and Syria) of sponsoring terrorism. The U.S. government has also determined that these countries currently possess, or at one time possessed, one or more types of WMD. Formerly, the list of countries also included Iraq, Libya, and North Korea. The possibility that Iraq might supply terrorist groups with WMD, however, is no longer a major concern in the wake of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that overthrew the government of Saddam Hussein. All terrorism-related sanctions were lifted against Iraq by President George W. Bush on May 7, 2003, and in October 2004, the United States rescinded Iraq's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Libya’s December 2003 decision to renounce terrorism and to give up its WMD programs substantially improved Libya’s standing with the international community. UN sanctions were lifted against the country in September 2004. In May 2006, the United States removed Libya from the list of states that sponsor terrorism. Subsequent to its decision to allow inspections of its nuclear sites, the Bush administration removed North Korea from the same list in 2008. In February 2010, President Obama indicated that it would remain off the U.S. list for the time being.

The United States is also concerned about states that are not party to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), including Egypt, Israel, and Syria. There is a possibility that these states have clandestine BW programs and poorly secured facilities that may be susceptible to terrorist infiltration. The United States is also worried that some parties to the BWC (including Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran) may have clandestine programs that could also prove to be threats. On July 15, 2006, Russia and the United States announced a Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, which is intended to build upon the anti-trafficking measures of nuclear materials outlined in the Proliferation Security Initiative. To date, the Global Initiative receives support from 75 partner nations, with the European Union represented as an observer. The United States is increasingly focused on the prevention of WMD terrorism. The latest report by the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, released in 2010, stated that BW continue to pose a particular threat to national security. The authors wrote that the United States is "woefully behind in its capability to rapidly produce vaccines and therapeutics, essential steps for adequately responding to a biological threat, whether natural or man-made."

In the Commission's 2008 report, Pakistan was described as one of the largest emerging threats in terms of nuclear terrorism. Evidence to support this claim included Pakistan's reputation as a “safe haven” for terrorists and its potentially vulnerable nuclear weapon and energy facilities. The country also has advanced biotechnology capabilities (although it denies working on BW), which could prove to be another potential source of WMD for non-state actors. Additionally, the number of terrorist incidents in Pakistan involving conventional weapons has dramatically increased, despite a decrease of such incidents worldwide.

Despite the Obama administration's passage of the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009 (and other efforts toward improving security), the Commission's 2010 report indicated that the threat of terrorist acquisition of WMD in Pakistan persists. The authors wrote that "the situation in Pakistan continues to deteriorate and remains precarious," although they acknowledged it will likely take some time before the new administration's policies produce results.

The failed suicide bombing attempt by a Nigerian man, aboard a passenger airplane on December 25, 2009, has additionally refocused the nation's attention on terrorist efforts in general.