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Introduction
Nuclear terrorism is one type of WMD terrorism and involves terrorist
use or threat of use of nuclear weapons or materials. Strictly speaking,
nuclear terrorism refers to the creation and detonation of a device
in which a sustained fission reaction takes place. This restricts
nuclear terrorism to bombs using highly
enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium
(Pu). However, some people use the term "nuclear terrorism"
to refer to any terrorist weapon using a radioactive substance.
This includes the use of radiation dispersal devices (RDDs). RDDs
use conventional explosives to spread radioactive material over
a wide area. Examples of materials that could be used in RDDs are
cesium-137, strontium-90, and cobalt-60, all of which are commonly
used and often
weakly protected in civilian research laboratories and medical facilities. Attacks
by terrorists on nuclear power plants or research reactors, intended
to cause a nuclear accident that would release radiation, can also
be considered nuclear terrorism.
What is the Potential for Nuclear Terrorism?
It is very doubtful that any terrorist group could produce a nuclear
weapon on its own without assistance from a state nuclear program.
Acquiring and enriching uranium, or creating plutonium in a nuclear
reactor, is an extremely expensive and difficult process, requiring
expensive equipment and sophisticated techniques. Even if a terrorist
group were able to acquire enough weapons-grade HEU or plutonium,
it is still a technically demanding and expensive task to put together
even a simple nuclear device. Producing a chemical or biological
weapon would be far easier for terrorists to accomplish than creating
a
nuclear weapon.
Terrorists could attempt to acquire a complete, working nuclear
weapon from a state. In this case terrorists would either steal
a nuclear device, receive one from a state sponsor, or bribe military
or political officials to acquire a device. Concerns about this
possibility increased after the collapse of the former Soviet Union,
as doubts were raised about the security of Soviet nuclear weapons,
one example being the debate over so-called
"suitcase
nukes." Even if a nuclear weapon were successfully stolen,
terrorists would have to defeat built-in mechanisms that are designed
to prevent the unauthorized detonation of a nuclear weapon. The
U.S. Department of Defense, through its
Cooperative Threat Reduction
Program (CTR), has been working with the Russian Ministry of Defense to
increase the security of Russian nuclear weapons.
A nuclear explosion, even though difficult to achieve, would be
extremely attractive to terrorists if they wanted to cause mass
casualties. This is because of the
devastating
effects of nuclear explosions (heat, blast effects and radiation
contamination) and also the shock value this would have on the target
population.
While the
probability of terrorists acquiring and using a nuclear fission
weapon is quite low, there is a much greater likelihood of
terrorists using a
radiological dispersal
device (RDD). Highly radioactive substances are far
more readily available than HEU or plutonium. These substances cannot
be used to make a nuclear weapon, and the destruction caused by
an RDD would be much less than that caused by a nuclear weapon.
While much less technically challenging than building a nuclear
weapon, building a so-called "dirty bomb" is not easy. Terrorists
would have to work with highly radioactive materials while assembling
the device. They would have to have training and knowledge to design
the device in such a way as to maximize its impact. If a conventional
bomb were used to disperse the radioactive material, the primary
cause of death would be the conventional explosive. It would be
very difficult to create an RDD that would cause immediate mass
casualties, since it is hard to maintain high concentrations of
radioactive materials while dispersing them over a wide area. Illnesses
and deaths due to the radioactive component of an RDD probably would
not appear for a substantial period of time. An RDD could, however,
be an effective terror weapon because fear of radiation might induce
panic and overreaction within the population. For example, the nuclear
terrorism alerts in late 2001 and the May 2002 arrest of
Jose Padilla, an alleged
Al-Qaeda affiliate believed to have
studied how to make radiological weapons, increased public anxiety
and prompted many people to purchase Geiger counters and potassium
iodide pills in anticipation of a radiological attack. Decontaminating the
affected area may also be a
difficult and expensive process,
depending on the type of explosive and radioactive material used,
topography, and a number of other factors.
An attack on a nuclear facility, with the aim of causing a massive
release of radioactive material, is also a credible possibility
for terrorists who cannot get their hands on sufficient amounts
of radioactive material. Most nuclear facilities have security measures
to counter a terrorist attack, such as well-trained guards and safety mechanisms to prevent
or mitigate release of radioactivity. However, many critics argue that these
are insufficient to prevent the entry into critical areas of a nuclear
facility by highly trained, well-armed terrorists, sabotage by insiders, or the deliberate
crashing of a hijacked airliner into a nuclear facility. There is
also some debate as to how likely a large-scale release of radioactivity
would be in such a case. The U.S. government is attempting to increase
security at nuclear facilities in order to prevent this.
In July 2006, Russia and the United States launched the
Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism to improve
cooperation on measures to protect nuclear materials, prevent
nuclear trafficking, deny safe haven to nuclear terrorists, mitigate
the effects of a terrorist attack, and adopt strong national
legislation to punish terrorists. This new effort supplements UN
measures to prevent WMD proliferation and terrorism, including
UN
Resolution
1540.
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Further Reading:
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NTI, CNS,
Nuclear Terrorism Tutorial
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Nuclear Control Institute,
Nuclear
Terrorism
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CNS Book,
The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism |
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NTI, Matthew Bunn & Anthony
Wier,
"Securing the Bomb 2006"
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PBS Frontline,
"Russian
Roulette"
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CRS, Jonathan
Medalia,
"Nuclear Terrorism: A Brief Review of Threats and
Responses"
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House of Representatives
Committee on International Relations, Hearing:
"Averting Nuclear Terrorism" |
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BCSIA,
Managing the Atom: Nuclear Terrorism
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NTI, CNS,
Radiological Terrorism Tutorial
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Council on Foreign Relations,
Factsheet: Dirty Bombs
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Council on Foreign Relations,
Charles Ferguson,
"Preventing Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism"
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CNS, Nikolai Sokov,
"'Suitcase Nukes':
Permanently Lost Luggage"
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