Improving relations between countries — making friends out of enemies — can reduce the risk of war. This, ultimately, is the best way to reduce the risk of WMD use, particularly in the following global relationships:

• Russia and the United States
• South Africa and Its Neighbors
• North Korea and the United States
• The Middle East
• India and Pakistan

United States and Russia No Longer Enemies

The end of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union reduced tensions between the two countries. This, in turn, led to a reduction in the threat of WMD use. Tensions were eased between the two countries principally because of changes within the Soviet Union. It ended its expansionist ideological competition with the United States and its anti-democratic domestic political system. The subsequent emergence of a democratic Russia and 14 other newly independent states that were once part of the Soviet empire reduced the risk of war between the two major nuclear powers even further. Most recently, the United States and Russia signed the Treaty of Moscow to reduce their deployed strategic nuclear warheads from about 6,000 each to between 1,700-2,200 over the next ten years. Many questions remain, however.

• Can the United States and Russia reduce their nuclear forces to non-threatening levels?
• Can the two countries reduce the risks of accidental or unauthorized nuclear launches?
• Can the United States and Russia work together towards transparency and confidence-building measures as the U.S. pursues its ballistic missile defense program?
• How will Russia's new alliance with China affect U.S. dominance in global economic and military affairs?

South Africa at Peace

The end of the Cold War led to accommodation between South Africa and its neighbors, which had close ties to the Soviet Union. This, and political change within South Africa that brought replacement of its right-wing, white-supremacist
government with democratically elected leaders, led the country to eliminate its nuclear and biological weapons.

North Korea: New Concerns

Political dialogue and a growing easing of tensions between North Korea and the United States led to understandings through which North Korea has frozen its nuclear weapons program and suspended tests of ballistic missiles. South Korea has played a major role in reducing tensions in this area with its "sunshine policy" of seeking better ties with the North.  In September 2002, the leaders of Japan and North Korea issued the Pyongyang Declaration.  Both sides agreed to cooperate in several fields to reduce tensions, including working together to resolve nuclear issues on the Korean Peninsula.  They also agreed to open negotiations aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations.

Questions remain, however, as to whether North Korea is ready to give up its nuclear arms and long-range missiles. Some analysts have also criticized the United States for rewarding North Korea with economic benefits after it violated the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  Doubts about the success of these efforts have particularly been highlighted by the October 2002 North Korean confirmation of its secret uranium enrichment program.  Although North Korea announced in September 2002 that it would extend its ballistic missile testing moratorium beyond 2003, it has since threatened to reverse its decision.  North Korea has also argued that it has the right to possess nuclear weapons in order to protect its national security, and has stated that the 1994 Agreed Framework was effectively nullified.  Concerns over the fate of the Agreed Framework intensified in December 2002, when North Korea announced it would reactivate the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, which had been closed under the 1994 agreement.  Days later, North Korea called on the International Atomic Energy Agency to remove monitoring equipment from all nuclear facilities, and to allow North Korea access to materials that had been sealed by the IAEA after the 1994 agreement.  Subsequently, the DPRK disrupted most of the safeguards equipment at the Yongbyon facilities.  Later, all IAEA inspectors were expelled from the country. The IAEA has responded by giving North Korea one more chance to comply before referring the matter to the UN Security Council, while it deplored North Korea's unilateral actions in the strongest terms.

The United States, Japan, South Korea, and other countries are working to resolve their concerns with North Korea via diplomatic and economic channels.  North Korea has proposed that "security concerns" be addressed through dialogue and a non-aggression treaty with the United States. The status of the agreement remains under discussion. In January 2003, the United States signaled that it is willing to hold talks with North Korea, but insisted that it will not offer any concessions to North Korea before existing commitments are met.

Despite these diplomatic overtures, North Korea announced its immediate withdrawal from the NPT on January 10, 2003. Pyongyang cited U.S. hostility as the reason for the withdrawal from the treaty and denounced the IAEA as an "American stooge", but stated that it currently had no intention to develop nuclear weapons.  The United States, South Korea, Japan and other neighboring states regarded the announcement as a setback for nonproliferation and peace on the Korean Peninsula, but continued diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation.

Peace in the Middle East?

Successful implementation of the Middle East Peace Process would reduce the risk of WMD use by Israel and its neighbors. It would also improve prospects for the implementation of WMD control measures in the region. Similarly, the advent of more moderate leaders in Iran and Iraq could reduce WMD threats in the Persian Gulf region. Whether these developments will occur is difficult to predict. There are strong differences of opinion among political leaders and experts on these questions.

Reduced Risk of War Between India and Pakistan?

Improved relations between India and Pakistan could reduce the risk of nuclear war in South Asia. This would be the case especially if there were an agreement over the future of the disputed region of Kashmir. Recently, however, tensions between these two nuclear armed states have risen because of new attacks in India by terrorist groups based in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir.