A Primer on WMD
Limiting Use of WMD
Policy Options
U.S. & Russia
Unauthorized Launch
Improve C3I
De-alert Missiles
Eliminate Missiles
Large Nuclear Forces
Technology Transfers
U.S. & China
U.S. & Hostile Powers
Regional Powers
India & Pakistan
Ballistic Missile Defense
CTBT
BWC Protocol
 

Option 1: Early-Warning Capabilities
 
 
Produced by the Monterey Institute's Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Proponents Say: Help Russia Improve Its Early-Warning Capabilities.

  • Provide funds to help Russia rebuild its satellite and command, control, communication, and intelligence (C3I) capabilities.
  • Implement the U.S.-Russian agreement to establish an early-warning center in Moscow, where the two countries would share real-time information on missile and scientific rocket launches around the world in order to reduce the risk of mistaking an innocent launch for a surprise attack.
  • Reassure Russia that U.S. missiles are not currently targeted against it, as the two sides agreed in 1994.

Opponents Say: No Further Assistance Should Be Given to Russia.

  • The United States should not provide funds to help a potential adversary rebuild its military capabilities. Russia should be required to divert funds from other military programs to rebuild its early-warning satellites and C3I.
  • Assuming that Russia did not give the United States access to its classified military satellites, the United States would have no way of knowing that the funds it provided were being devoted to building and launching early-warning satellites and not spent on other military hardware.
  • Russia wants to tax U.S. assistance provided for the early-warning center in Moscow. The United States cannot condone Russia's accepting a U.S. gift and then demanding an additional payment in the form of tax.
  • Since the United States will be closely involved in creating and operating the early-warning center, Russia may not trust data it receives through the center.
  • It is unlikely that the United States could convince Russia that it is not targeting U.S. missiles against it. Targeting is set by computer code that cannot be observed by the other side. In any event, targeting can be reprogrammed in a matter of seconds or minutes and missiles redirected at Russia.

Further Reading:

Linda D. Kozaryn, "U.S. and Russia Will Share Early Warning Missile Launch Data"

Jim Garamone, "Russia, U.S. to Set Up Joint Early Warning Center"

Geoffrey Forden, "Reducing a Common Danger: Improving Russia's Early Warning System"
Pavel Podvig, "Russian Early Warning System and Danger of Inadvertent Launch"
Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies, "Russian Early Warning System"

U.S. Dept. of Defense, "Missile detargeting"


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This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2004 by MIIS.

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