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Proponents Say: Reduce Tensions/Negotiate Limits on WMD and Missiles.
- The United States should open discussions aimed at improving relations with moderate leaders in Iran,
who received a strong mandate in the June 2001 Iranian presidential election.
- If the United States can develop a more solid relationship with Iran, it can then
perhaps more effectively press for an end to Iran's support of terrorist activities, a ban on new
missile flight tests, full compliance with the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (including acceptance of the International
Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) new, strengthened safeguards
system), and full compliance with the Chemical
Weapons Convention (CWC).
- Improved relations might be achieved by the United States offering to open diplomatic
talks and to end economic sanctions in return
for these actions. Iran has signaled that it would be willing to sign
the additional protocol to its safeguards agreement with the IAEA in exchange
for the lifting of sanctions against it. This would improve the IAEA's
ability to monitor nuclear activities in Iran.
Opponents Say: Negotiations are Unlikely to Produce Effective Limits on WMD
and Missiles.
- Iran's supreme leader and his radical followers—not the country's president—control Iranian foreign policy and the military. They are strongly committed
to the terrorist groups challenging Israel and to Iran's enhancing WMD and missile programs.
At best, negotiations would improve the atmosphere between Iran and the United
States, but they are unlikely to lead to agreements restricting Iran's WMD
and missile programs.
- Iran will not be satisfied with diplomatic concessions from the United States.
It will likely demand that Israel accept every restriction on WMD that Iran
has accepted, including adherence to the NPT and the CWC. Israel is not prepared
to take these steps in the absence of a comprehensive peace in the Middle
East, and the United States will not press Israel to do so. This stalemate
would make U.S.-Iran talks on WMD a dead-end.
- Even if the United States and Iran agree on additional restrictions on WMD
and missiles, the United States could not be confident that Iran would live
up to those agreements. As a large country, Iran has much territory within
which it can hide its WMD activities. Even in Iraq, where UN inspectors
had wide-ranging access, Iraq was able to hide important
parts of its WMD activities, especially regarding its BW program. In Iran,
inspections under the NPT and the CWC would be much more limited than the
UN inspections in Iraq, and there are no inspections under the Biological
and Toxins Weapons Convention (BWC). Thus, Iran would have no trouble
hiding significant WMD activities.
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